F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[Dan Kelly]

so who's going to win the Lafreniere sweepstakes?

:coyotes2

 

[93LEAFS]

Not sure anyone has dominated like Lafreniere in their Draft - 1 season like Lafreniere though. His numbers aren’t as eye popping but he just seems like he’s one of those players who always makes a good to great play. Time will tell but he should have a monster season IMO

Matthews, Crosby, JT, Stamkos, Hall, McDavid, Eichel, Doughty, etc all dominated to a similar extent if not more so. What he did in his D-1 isn't that uncommon, especially when talking about elite late-birthdays. Tavares D-2 season was probably more impressive than Lafreniere D-1 too.

If you believe there's virtually no gap, you draft for need. Every team does. It's a complete myth that amateur pundits on this website like to state that you need to draft the best player available. NHL teams don't operate that way, unless they believe there's a difference in caliber.

Given that Lafreniere is not a tier beyond the other players, it would make no sense to draft Lafreniere in the top few picks for the Rangers as the team is currently constructed.

Drafting for immediate need is generally pointless though because so few players immediately walk into your lineup and fix it. That's why teams generally go BPA.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Drafting for immediate need is generally pointless though because so few players immediately walk into your lineup and fix it. That's why teams generally go BPA.

The discussion was about Lafreniere, so it's a discussion about the top 5 of the draft. At pick 50, I agree. First round, I still think it's smart to draft for need. In the top 10, I think you draft for immediate need. Most of those players will play in the NHL right away or the season following. After that in the first round, you should draft for organizational need.

The only time that there's usually a substantial enough difference in caliber that would make you pick BPA is in the top 2-3, and occasionally if a player drops a lot in the draft. Even then, there's a reason they dropped, so you might not want to pick that player. Rarely will teams get their 3rd or 5th ranked player at pick 24 and the next highest ranked player is 16th. That usually means that a team had a very different draft board than most.

 

[93LEAFS]

The discussion was about Lafreniere, so it's a discussion about the top 5 of the draft. At pick 50, I agree. First round, I still think it's smart to draft for need. In the top 10, I think you draft for immediate need. Most of those players will play in the NHL right away or the season following. After that in the first round, you should draft for organizational need.

The only time that there's usually a substantial enough difference in caliber that would make you pick BPA is in the top 2-3, and occasionally if a player drops a lot in the draft. Even then, there's a reason they dropped, so you might not want to pick that player. Rarely will teams get their 3rd or 5th ranked player at pick 24 and the next highest ranked player is 16th. That usually means that a team had a very different draft board than most.

I don't think even in the top 10 you draft for an immediate need. Only 2 or 3 players from each draft are immediately NHL ready, and even less than that to fill an immediate void. I mean, if you are debating Tavares/Hedman or Stamkos/Doughty you might have a point, but even then Hedman wasn't an impact player until year 5. Remember New Jersey taking Zacha 6th or Arizona taking Strome because they had no center depth? They passed on significantly better wingers and defenders in the end to do it. If you think one player is better and your board reflects that, you should take that player and move the places around elsewhere. Drafting for short-term needs is pointless because you will generally have these players until they are 25-28, and your needs will dramatically change over that time period.

 

[Anardil]

so who's going to win the Lafreniere sweepstakes?

:coyotes2

You forgot to add the Habs logo

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

so who's going to win the Lafreniere sweepstakes?

:coyotes2

 

[NotProkofievian]

I don't think even in the top 10 you draft for an immediate need. Only 2 or 3 players from each draft are immediately NHL ready, and even less than that to fill an immediate void. I mean, if you are debating Tavares/Hedman or Stamkos/Doughty you might have a point, but even then Hedman wasn't an impact player until year 5. Remember New Jersey taking Zacha 6th or Arizona taking Strome because they had no center depth? They passed on significantly better wingers and defenders in the end to do it. If you think one player is better and your board reflects that, you should take that player and move the places around elsewhere. Drafting for short-term needs is pointless because you will generally have these players until they are 25-28, and your needs will dramatically change over that time period.

We had this argument on the habs board ad nauseam before we drafted Kotkaniemi. My take was that it's not just rosters that have needs, organizations do. It's true that you don't know what your roster's needs will be in a few years' time. But if you have 1 or 0 blue chip prospects in your organizational depth at a particular position (outside of goalie), it's pretty easy to predict your needs in a few years time. We took the center and I have no regrets about that, as well as Tkachuk's season went.

Moreover, positions have value. Montreal ignored this for the longest time and all it got us was Bergevin saying ''they're not available'' in press conference after press conference in reference to top scorers and centermen.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

In 2006, Chicago took Toews #3, then in 2007, Chicago took Kane #1, then those 2 led Chicago to 3 Cups in 6 years.

In 2019, Chicago took Dach #3, then in 2020, Chicago will take Lafreniere #1, then those 2 will lead Chicago to multiple Cups.

There you go ...

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

In 2006, Chicago took Toews #3, then in 2007, Chicago took Kane #1, then those 2 led Chicago to 3 Cups in 6 years.

In 2019, Chicago took Dach #3, then in 2020, Chicago will take Lafreniere #1, then those 2 will lead Chicago to multiple Cups.

There you go ...

If you could guarantee the Hawks win the lottery this year, I'll take another bad season.

 

[Llamamoto]

so who's going to win the Lafreniere sweepstakes?

:coyotes2

 

[Dan Kelly]

it would be fun to watch the internet MELT if this were to happen !!

 

[nbwingsfan]

If you believe there's virtually no gap, you draft for need. Every team does. It's a complete myth that amateur pundits on this website like to state that you need to draft the best player available. NHL teams don't operate that way, unless they believe there's a difference in caliber.

Given that Lafreniere is not a tier beyond the other players, it would make no sense to draft Lafreniere in the top few picks for the Rangers as the team is currently constructed.

As of right now he is a tier above the other players though.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

As of right now he is a tier above the other players though.

Not in my opinion.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Not in my opinion.

And who is just as good as the guy who won CHL player of the year at 17?

Still a year left so a lot can change, but right now Lefreniere has been a clear step ahead of the competition

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

And who is just as good as the guy who won CHL player of the year at 17?

Still a year left so a lot can change, but right now Lefreniere has been a clear step ahead of the competition

I didn’t say anyone is as good. I said he’s not a tier above. I’ve consistently ranked him first in my first few lists, but I think this draft has about 7-8 players in the same tier and we’ve yet to see any separation. I don’t know if we will at any point this season either.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I didn’t say anyone is as good. I said he’s not a tier above. I’ve consistently ranked him first in my first few lists, but I think this draft has about 7-8 players in the same tier and we’ve yet to see any separation. I don’t know if we will at any point this season either.

How has he not separated himself from the competition when he’s had anywhere from 30-40pts more than the other CHL player comparables (while carrying a very average team)?

He was also better than essentially everyone at the Hlinka as well...

 

[NinoBrown]

Is he a Nolan Patrick 2.0 without the injuries ? I havent seen him play.
The stats look very similar. I remember that Patrick was a lock for 1 oa before he got injured,

 

[nbwingsfan]

Is he a Nolan Patrick 2.0 without the injuries ? I havent seen him play.
The stats look very similar. I remember that Patrick was a lock for 1 oa before he got injured,

How do they look similar? He was much better in both of his seasons while being by far the best player on his team both seasons.

Patrick was like the 6th best player on his team during his rookie CHL season and arguably 3rd best player on his team in his 2nd year and then regressed quite a bit in his 3rd season (mostly due to injuries)

So no, barring an unforeseen regression from Lafrenière, he’s been the much, much better prospect.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Is he a Nolan Patrick 2.0 without the injuries ? I havent seen him play.
The stats look very similar. I remember that Patrick was a lock for 1 oa before he got injured,

His stats look similar? What?

 

[Boonk]

Is he a Nolan Patrick 2.0 without the injuries ? I havent seen him play.
The stats look very similar. I remember that Patrick was a lock for 1 oa before he got injured,

He is nothing like Nolan Patrick.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How has he not separated himself from the competition when he’s had anywhere from 30-40pts more than the other CHL player comparables (while carrying a very average team)?

He was also better than essentially everyone at the Hlinka as well...

Winger, not a great skater, not a player who has a style of play that includes dominating games with regularity, no highly elite tools.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Is he a Nolan Patrick 2.0 without the injuries ? I havent seen him play.
The stats look very similar. I remember that Patrick was a lock for 1 oa before he got injured,

There are some definite similarities in trajectory. They play the game slightly differently and I wouldn’t assume that Lafreniere will accumulate a lot of injuries or that he won’t go 1OA, but he fits the mold of an early hyped CHL guy that will be in the mix for 1OA, but clearly does not have the skill set to run away with 1OA, and will be leaving the door open to other players to be picked 1OA.

 

[landy92mack29]

Lafreniere is easily in his own tier entering the year. He's a great skater with high end IQ, puck skills, shot and defensive ability. For todays game he plays a pretty physically imposing style as well. Very strong on the puck, in front of the net and battles along the boards. Best winger prospect since Ovi and wouldn't be surprised if he played a bit of C this year

 

[QJL]

Winger, not a great skater, not a player who has a style of play that includes dominating games with regularity, no highly elite tools.

I don’t understand how you think his absurd level of production at his age doesn’t include dominating games regularly? He’s one of the top CHL scorers at his age in the last few decades...

In my opinion he has elite hands, vision, and hockey IQ in all 3 zones.

He’s a Dahlin/Tavares level prospect and he will go #1 unless another player makes an unrealistic jump. It’s not that close right now.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Winger, not a great skater, not a player who has a style of play that includes dominating games with regularity, no highly elite tools.

Who are you watching? His hands/finishing ability.and IQ are all amazing.

He isn't an elite skater like a MacKinnon/McDavid but he certainly isn't anywhere near the point on concern. As.of right now he is easily in his own tier at the top of the draft.