F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[HabsMD97]

so what are the expectations for this season boys/girls? im guessing with a completely healthy season laf gets about 45 goals and 85 assists.

not too familiar with the team, but probably around 2 pts/game a bit lower/higher depending on linemates

 

[NotProkofievian]

The positional value should be factored into the evaluation, because it has an impact on the ice. But, that's a weighted issue. Although, a lot of center prospects aren't locks to be centers, and eventually end on the wing to be effective NHLers.

I don't think it's easy to predict your team's needs in a few years. People bust, disappoint or are traded in packages. Very few prospects outside the top 3 are sure things.

In 2011 the Leafs had a need for a center at 5, and had a promising D breaking through in Gardiner, a recent 1st rounder in Stuard Percy, plus well-regarded but overrated defenders (Dion and Franson). I'm sure as hell glad we didn't reach for the next potential center in Grigorenko and left that draft with Morgan Rielly.

It is pretty easy when you just don't have any depth at that position. Montreal's center depth issue was an organizational one, if we didn't address it, it would be an issue until the end of time. Of course, I don't mean to argue that you should draft worse players ahead of clearly better ones. My argument is that you must make a conscious effort to draft to plug the holes in your organization's depth, otherwise they'll continue to be holes for decades at a time.

 

[nbwingsfan]

so what are the expectations for this season boys/girls? im guessing with a completely healthy season laf gets about 45 goals and 85 assists.

His team isn’t very strong right now. Extremely high Junior numbers like that are very rare unless you’re playing on a great offensive team, even for truly elite players (some exceptions apply).

I’d think a more realistic option would be 55GP (missed time for U20/tournaments) 45G/70A for it to be considered a great season.

Would love to see him traded to a contender with other great offensive players to really see how good he is. I would also love if Rimouski would try him at C, as I believe his game is suited for that position.

 

[JAS 39 Gripen]

so what are the expectations for this season boys/girls? im guessing with a completely healthy season laf gets about 45 goals and 85 assists.

I mean, considering the bad team defense and the quality of the players in the QMJHL, and the way that some people talk about him, I would say that he'd have to double those points, hehe. Nah, but he should get more though IMO

 

[kyle44]

Lafreniere is absolutely a lock for 1st overall at this very moment, and it likely won't change unless someone climbs through the ranks rapidly. Once again, you're very bad at evaluating draft talent.

I live in a Q area and have seen Lafreniere many times live and on TV. I agree he is the front-runner, but people are seriously sleeping on Lucas Raymond. That kid is absolutely dynamic in ways that Lafreniere is not. Will be interesting to see if the conversation changes at all as the year progresses.

 

[bigdog16]

What is European hype? Does it give you more credibility than Canadian CHL’er hype?

I dont wanna get off topic but do you not remember these boards during that draft year? People were literally claiming Laine was going to be the best goal scorer is history and i believe someone said he would score 80 goals. Then with media, there was a false narrative created to stir up the pot to try and make it a 1-2 horse race. When in reality, Matthews was and still is the far better player

 

[Bob Barker]

so what are the expectations for this season boys/girls? im guessing with a completely healthy season laf gets about 45 goals and 85 assists.

Are you factoring in the time he will miss for the WJC? Or do you mean if he played a complete season, this is the pace he'd be on? Though it looks like he only missed 7 games for the tourney last year.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

I mean, considering the bad team defense and the quality of the players in the QMJHL, and the way that some people talk about him, I would say that he'd have to double those points, hehe. Nah, but he should get more though IMO

Nobody has hit 130 points in the Q since 06. Hell, only one player has hit 120 in the past 5 years. I'd be shocked if Lafrenière hit 130 points, especially since he'll miss time for the WJC.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I dont wanna get off topic but do you not remember these boards during that draft year? People were literally claiming Laine was going to be the best goal scorer is history and i believe someone said he would score 80 goals. Then with media, there was a false narrative created to stir up the pot to try and make it a 1-2 horse race. When in reality, Matthews was and still is the far better player

Thats because of the Finn fans on this website. When there's a Finn near the top of the draft, there's a crazy hype for that player on this website. This website doesn't influence draft hype in the NHL. Most European players playing in Europe get a low-level of hype with NHL teams. A lot of that is due to teams not having the same scouting personnel in Europe as in North America. A Canadian CHL'er in when Canada hasn't had a 1OA in five years is going to get a lot more hype in the NHL than anything Laine got.

As for the Laine vs. Matthews debate, I think we all knew that Matthews was going to go 1OA, but Laine had the better season, and there was a good argument for him over Matthews. It might be easy to say after Laine has an uncharacteristically bad season that Matthews is better, but I think it's going to end up being very close between the two, and it'll be a matter of personal preference and team need.

 

[Hockey Man]

His team isn’t very strong right now. Extremely high Junior numbers like that are very rare unless you’re playing on a great offensive team, even for truly elite players (some exceptions apply).

I’d think a more realistic option would be 55GP (missed time for U20/tournaments) 45G/70A for it to be considered a great season.

Would love to see him traded to a contender with other great offensive players to really see how good he is. I would also love if Rimouski would try him at C, as I believe his game is suited for that position.

yea i agree with this take. i was just floating my uber optimistic take. i also agree with him being at center.

edit: actually the numbers you gave (45+70 in 55) when extrapolated to 60 games (what he has played in both seasons up to this one) would put laf at 125 points. that is about where id have him pegged (130 pts in 60 gp).

 

[Hockey Man]

Are you factoring in the time he will miss for the WJC? Or do you mean if he played a complete season, this is the pace he'd be on? Though it looks like he only missed 7 games for the tourney last year.

this would be in a 60 game season. he has played 60 in his 2 previous seasons, including last year when he had the WJC. this would translate into about a 20 point progression each season which looks very nice on the stat sheet.

 

[snipes]

...so how about that Alexis Lafreniere?

Heck of a player, his reverse hit and physicality is Gordie Howe like. Just a complete all around player.

Excited to see how the reigning CHL Player of the Year defends his crown.

And yes, despite some sophistry by a certain poster, he’s almost certainly going #1 OA.

 

[nbwingsfan]

yea i agree with this take. i was just floating my uber optimistic take. i also agree with him being at center.

edit: actually the numbers you gave (45+70 in 55) when extrapolated to 60 games (what he has played in both seasons up to this one) would put laf at 125 points. that is about where id have him pegged (130 pts in 60 gp).

Even my 125 was being generous. Like someone said, only one player has hit 120pts since 2009, and no one has hit 130 since 2006. It's a tough number to hit.

 

[Gold Standard]

no news to report. just thought it was odd to go 6 pages deep to find the projected #1OA pick thread. so, bump.

next game on Friday. I seem to remember he had a bit of a slow start last year as well. but hope he revs it up soon.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

1 assist in his first 2 games.

 

[Killerjas]

1 assist in his first 2 games.

What a scrub, won't get drafted

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

Lafreniere scores his first of the season in OT to give a win to Crosby which jersey got retired before the game.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Lafreniere scores his first of the season in OT to give a win to Crosby which jersey got retired before the game.

Was a nice game for Lafrenière offensively, but also a bit of a mixed bag. He really needs to cut down on stupid penalties.

Also, I don't think I can remember a team in such dire need of offensive Dmen as Rimouski right now. They got gifted a dozen powerplays and were so comically bad at it that Sherbrooke wound up with a positive SH goal differential.

A lot of people think Rimouski was a one-man team last year, but they actually had a number of solid older players, and their absence is felt right now on that team. If the team doesn't make moves to address those holes I wouldn't be surprised if Lafrenière's production stagnates or even drops this year.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Good start against Drummondville, 10 minutes played to the 1st, 0+2.

 

[Sens72]

3 assists so far today. 8P in 3 2/3 GP.

 

[TimeZone]

This kid seems pretty good at Hockey.

 

[sukimono]

Lafrenière was absolutely flying tonight. 8 shots on goal, was everywhere on the ice. Wowzah

 

[Artorius Horus T]

1 goal, 3 primary assists.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

24 SOG this season so far, only 2 goals. Unlucky?

 

[Nabrules]

I’ve been a huge Byfield supporter for a while now, in 5, 6 years I’m confident he’ll be the player from the draft but no doubt about it, AL is great himself. Finally some elite Canadian talent again