F Adam Fantilli - Univ. of Michigan, NCAA (2023 Draft)

[Nico Cauzuki]

Im a big fan of McTavish's game.

If I was Anaheim, I wouldn't hesitate to take Bedard first. I do think its that close.

So teams Id take Bedard first with:
Anaheim, Ottawa, San Jose maybe Detroit

Teams Id take Fanitlli first with:
Arizona, Montreal, Columbus, Chicago, Philly,

Vancouver would be a tossup for me, current roster I'd say Bedard but not sure what things are going to look like when the dust settles.

wait what? theres 0 teams that will pass on Bedard at first overall no matter who they have at center/wing Montreal would riot if we took Fantilli over Connor

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

I said this on another topic: if you really don't want to take Bedard first, then trade down a slot and add whatever you can. Not doing so and just taking your "guy" instead, in this case Fantilli, is lazy GMing.

 

[Lavar Ball]

Im a big fan of McTavish's game.

If I was Anaheim, I wouldn't hesitate to take Bedard first. I do think its that close.

So teams Id take Bedard first with:
Anaheim, Ottawa, San Jose maybe Detroit

Teams Id take Fanitlli first with:
Arizona, Montreal, Columbus, Chicago, Philly,

Vancouver would be a tossup for me, current roster I'd say Bedard but not sure what things are going to look like when the dust settles.

How anyone can still think Fantilli and Bedard are in the same conversation at this point makes zero sense to me. No one is passing on Bedard. The debate starts at #2

 

[Bonin21]

I don't think he's better than Cooley yet, though I think it's really close. Fantilli's numbers are inflated by a weaker schedule - notable 2 games against a bottom feeder in LSSU.

In conference games:
Cooley 15gp 8g 19p
Fantilli 10gp 6g 13p

Cooley had a slow start and Fantilli had a really hot start, but since mid November:

Cooley 13gp 9g 21p
Fantilli 8gp 5g 10p

I think Fantilli has probably been a bit better in the NCAA, but since that mid November point I think it's been Cooley, especially when you consider that he was much better at the WJC. I know their situations were different, but still Cooley put up 7g in 14p vs Fantilli's 2g 5p...

Reading waaaay too much into numbers. This weekend Fantilli looked significantly better than Cooley. Small sample size but outside of that he's a better pure skater, quicker release, and has an insane ability to find the right spot and bury goals. The eye test is still valid, even in 2023.

 

[Corso]

You talking about Fantilli's play during most of the WJC?

You are the only one who see's Fantilli's play during the WJC as "embarrassing" as it was anything but. In fact in thier head to head match up during the tourney, Fantilli outshined Cooley by not a small margin despite having less ice time and not being on the PP1. He outshined Cooley yet again this past weekend as well. Yes Cooley had the better stats over all during the tourney but he was the go to guy on team U.S.A. while Fantilli was on the bottom 6 for Canada and had to fight for every minute of ice. Had Fantilli really been eligible for U.S.A. (as one poster here desperately wanted him to be) he would have had as much ice time as Cooley and his stats would have been at the very least just as good.

Now Cooley is a great player who will have an impact in the NHL as a top 6 forward but he is no Fantilli. Take a moment to read Bob McKenzie's mid term rankings that were released today. An NHL scout said in no uncertain terms that last year's number one pick would have went no higher than 5th last year, at best! Fantilli was rated number 2 on the list.

 

[Zaddy]

Kinda wild he's #2 on Bob McKenzie's list after being labeled a bust by the experts on HF.

 

[Postulates]

Kinda wild he's #2 on Bob McKenzie's list after being labeled a bust by the experts on HF.

1 man class and Ryan Leonard !

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

Im a big fan of McTavish's game.

If I was Anaheim, I wouldn't hesitate to take Bedard first. I do think its that close.

So teams Id take Bedard first with:
Anaheim, Ottawa, San Jose maybe Detroit

Teams Id take Fanitlli first with:
Arizona, Montreal, Columbus, Chicago, Philly,

Vancouver would be a tossup for me, current roster I'd say Bedard but not sure what things are going to look like when the dust settles.

Any GM that passes on Bedard would be fired at the draft so that everyone can watch it happen live

 

[Herby]

Alot of times there is a consensus guy for as long as Bedard has been the consensus guy we start to see hype for the #2 guy.

Lecavalier/Legwand
Spezza/Kovalchuk (the one time it happened)
Tavares/Duchene (Hedman went 2nd but HF Buzz was Duchene was going 1OA)

As for Fantilli, I think if he can get the game to slow down for him he has the God-given ability to be a superstar in the NHL. Last weekend in Minneapolis he was, IMO the best player on the ice for either team by a significant margin, and there was a lot of talent playing. Vs a rival, in a very hostile environment and matching up many shifts against a guy who could be playing in the NHL right now in Faber, it was way more impressive than anything he has done all season.

The upside is he handles the pace of of the NHL fine and his ability puts him in the Calder discussion. I think he is a more skilled player right now at 18 than Beniers was his last year here at 19. But Beniers had a more balanced skill to game sense ratio.

The downside is he reaches the NHL and suddenly he just isn't multiple levels more talented than everyone else, and you have to start making thinking plays or being in the right areas to be a superstar. I think this is kind of what has happened with Byfield, you can see the enormous skill level but a lot of times he just ends up passing it to the wrong spot or not ending up in optimal scoring areas. In the NCAA and CHL when you are an A++ talent like those guys you can overcome it because the talent level you are competing against is so much less, in the NHL the prime scoring chances are just limited. Although, these were concerns about Fantilli jumping from the USHL to the NCAA and those were unwarranted.

I always say, if a guy is good enough for the NHL after freshman year, he should go, if he isn't he should stay. I think Fantilli is a notch or two above Power and will be able to step right into an NHL lineup next season. For selfish reasonsI hope he pulls a Power and comes back, but I am not expecting it.

 

[brakeyawself]

There's reasons why people wouldn't want to take Bedard 1oa (though less now than a month ago). It's not attitude or selfishness or personality, I've heard none of those issues about him. Might be some of the same play driving complaints Tavares had but I doubt people are thinking that, Bedard drives play just fine.

I don't see Bedard as an NHL centre. I feel it works against his strengths. Bedard cheats so much as a player, there's a reason why he's always behind on the dmen and getting breakaways without having to blow by dmen. As a winger, people are going to be very happy but as a centre, he's going to have to change up away from who he is. I have no concerns about Bedard as an NHL superstar, I have concerns of him as a centre. If someone else carries the puck for him and he can get lost in plays and just be an elite producer, 90% of my concerns don't really factor in on him.

It's just that simple, I do think Fantilli is capable of being a 2 way, point per game player. I think Bedard will be the better player but that nearly every team at the bottom of the standings need a Fantilli more than a Bedard.

So essentially, my reason for Fantilli first could be simplified.

In 3 years I'd rather have Gaudreau - Fantilli - Laine than I would have Gaudreau - Bedard - Laine.

I feel Bedard is offensively superior and is better, I feel that Fantilli will help teams moreso.

That's fair. But I honestly still don't see any teams passing up on a winger of his caliber. As good as Fantilli might be at center. This is one of those Ovechkin-Malkin situations then. \I'm pretty sure Pittsburgh were begging Washington to take Malkin. Or this year, with Slafkovsky. If Montreal didn't take him, the Devils would have at 2. And when Habs took him off the board, Devils went with a RD instead of Wright, or Cooley even, for obvious reasons in their case. But then Wright fell to Seattle anyway.

Or the Laf Byfield year. I mean, sure that situation hasn't worked out yet for either team. But again, I was a Ranger fan begging my team to draft Byfield, while everyone was saying they just have to draft Laf. And I am pretty sure the Kings were begging that the Rangers would take Byfield, so Laf would fall to them. But no, Rangers took Laf and Kings Byfield, and it's worked out for neither team of course. All though in this case, I think it might have been better for the development of both prospects if Laf went to the Kings and Byfield the Rangers. Laf would have been playing with Danault and Kopitar fairly early since the Kings weren't very deep at the wing. And Byfield probably would have been the Rangers 3C out of the gate or at least by his 2nd season. And who knows, maybe their trajectory would have been different.

Point being, generally in these situations, even when there is a "pure" winger rated so highly, let alone with with a chance to play center, the winger still gets taken pretty much every time if they are perceived to be the prize of the draft. Let alone if they are perceived to be a "generational talent", which Bedard surely is. And as good as Fantilli is, I would say AT BEST, he's Malkin to Bedard's Ovi, in which case, the top 2 teams will both want him and the team with the 2nd pick will be begging the team with the 1st pick does take Fantilli, but they won't, for a variety of reasons. Possibly among the most influential of those, the fact that if they do take Fantilli and pass on Bedard, and Fantilli flakes, or even if he just becomes a good player rather than great player, and Bedard is every bit the generational player people think he might be, well, that's probably job lost, no one answering phones for a few years at minimum and an entire fan base after the heads of the entire staff of the team, GM, coach, owner. They'd blame them all. When there is a player perceived as highly as Bedard, teams simply don't pass on them. Heck, even if they are only perceived as highly as Nail Yakupov of Lafreniere, the latter who was also seen as something of a "generational" talent even though I don't think he was ever actually at THAT level, they still take Yakupov and Lafreniere. So there is just no team that will pass on Bedard.

And what team out there that might have that 1 pick needs a center THAT bad, where they couldn't risk Bedard ending up a winger? None that I can tell. Yotes loaded up on centers now. San Jose could prob use one but they have Bourdelieu, I'm not sure if Eklund is playing center or wing, but either way, they have some decent lesser known prospects, and worst case, they take a center the year after. Ducks with Zegras and McTavish would prob rather him play winger. Or at least if he played with McTavish , they could share center responsibilities. All though Zegras and Bedard together would be crazy.. Canucks, no. They'd take Bedard in a heartbeat. Blackhawks, sure they need a center, but no way they are passing on Bedard in that Chicago market and they just got lucky and got Frank Nazar last draft. Who I think is going to be terrific. Blues? Nah, They could definitely use a superstar center, Thomas is good but not THAT good. But I think they'd still go Bedard. Habs no, Sens definitely not, Red Wings.... maybe? I mean Yzerman likes taking his own path, but they took Kasper last year, and have a 1C thats god enough at least. Then, BJs, Isles, Flyers. Isles have Raty coming through and Barzal and Brock is playing out of his mind this year. Flyers are looking ok as Frost looks like he might actually work out. Which leaves the BJs. The only team I can even come close to seeing wanting a Center that bad, and I don't think they want one THAT bad. Sillinger looks like he might be ok. Kent Johnson playing the wing I think mostly but there was talk he might play center in the future if they can build him towards it.

Well, point being, when a player like Bedard is available, with a perception surrounding them like that surrounding Bedard, even if there are reasonable reasons a team might pass on that player, out of need, or skepticism, or whatever, 99% of the time, they simply don't. They take that best available player and deal with filling needs afterwards. Or in the 2nd round. Bedard and some center that maybe falls out of the 1st round into the 2nd? Or Fantilli and maybe a winger that falls out of the 1st into the 2nd? Every NHL team is taking Bedard and finding a "sure" center elsewhere. And this is IF Bedard doesn't work out at center. The fact that he is still largely perceived as a center, just ensures he'll be the 1st player taken.

And many do view Bedard as a selfish player. At least in Jrs. But that doesn't necessarily mean it's an actual problem at this point. Lots of young players have selfish tendencies and break out of them. Some don't, but most do.

Your concern about him maybe not being ideally a center, is reasonable. But that's not nearly enough for any team to put Fantilli ahead of him. Or at least, I would be absolutely SHOCKED if something like that happened. It would be , for whomever took Fantilli, probably the worst move of their career. And they'd be betting their entire career and the team's future on Fantill, who could go either way as a prospect, becoming at least NEAR as good as the player people are saying is the best prospect to come out since like McDavid and Matthews. All though I would say, Hughes is starting to look like of the better number 1's taken in the last decade also. But I'm not quite sure he's on Bedard's level. Obviously, even if Bedard is great, I don't think he will be on McDavid's level either. Maybe on Matthews level, just different type of player completely.

 

[rahad]

The only way a team will pass on Bedard, is if he goes full Eric Lindros...

 

[Boner Champ]

The only way a team will pass on Bedard, is if he goes full Eric Lindros...

Even then they'll take Bedard and get a king's ransom in addition to a pick b/w 2-4.

 

[bsu]

The only way a team will pass on Bedard, is if he goes full Eric Lindros...

He's fighting for the #2 spot. There's no way Bedard doesn't go #1,

 

[95snipes]

Reading waaaay too much into numbers. This weekend Fantilli looked significantly better than Cooley. Small sample size but outside of that he's a better pure skater, quicker release, and has an insane ability to find the right spot and bury goals. The eye test is still valid, even in 2023.

Cooley was better in game 1, Fantilli was better in game 2. Cooley's line never really got going game 2 due to various penalties and Snuggerud getting tossed in the second. Fantilli played well, but 2 of his goals were rebounds and 1 was a backdoor play. He made a nice play on his assist, but he wasn't even trying to pass to Brindley.

Fantilli is a great skater for sure. He looks really skinny on the ice to me. He looks like he has the frame to put on another 20 pounds. Still don't love his hockey IQ though.

 

[FireBird71]

2 Goals 2 assists so far against Penn State

 

[Breakers]

Hyman and Larkin at the famous Michigan camp were talking about him Fantilli and how lethal he is from the right hash or wall.

His only goal tonight is just so difficult to stop.

 

[FireBird71]

2 and 2…changed

 

[Herby]

2 and 2…changed

2+3 if you count the perfect setup he had on one of PSU’s goals, that is about as bad a turnover as you will see. But that was the blemish on yet another stellar night against a really good team.

He is playing with a lot of confidence since his return from the WJC, and confidence coupled with the skill set he has is going to be bad news for the rest of the Big 10.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Just got his leg f***ed up pretty badly against PSU

 

[Dominance]

Just got his leg f***ed up pretty badly against PSU

Before or after he did this?

 

[Herby]

You can tell that Penn St was going out of its way to play him really rough this weekend, IMO crossing the line tonight with some of the BS. Nice to see him be able to play through that and have another good game.

5-8-13 in 6 games since returning from the WJC, all against Top 10 teams. So much for only producing against bad teams.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Before or after he did this?

It was before and I’m relieved and glad he came back, because it did not look good at all when it happened.

 

[Torts]

Alot of times there is a consensus guy for as long as Bedard has been the consensus guy we start to see hype for the #2 guy.

Lecavalier/Legwand
Spezza/Kovalchuk (the one time it happened)
Tavares/Duchene (Hedman went 2nd but HF Buzz was Duchene was going 1OA)

As for Fantilli, I think if he can get the game to slow down for him he has the God-given ability to be a superstar in the NHL. Last weekend in Minneapolis he was, IMO the best player on the ice for either team by a significant margin, and there was a lot of talent playing. Vs a rival, in a very hostile environment and matching up many shifts against a guy who could be playing in the NHL right now in Faber, it was way more impressive than anything he has done all season.

The upside is he handles the pace of of the NHL fine and his ability puts him in the Calder discussion. I think he is a more skilled player right now at 18 than Beniers was his last year here at 19. But Beniers had a more balanced skill to game sense ratio.

The downside is he reaches the NHL and suddenly he just isn't multiple levels more talented than everyone else, and you have to start making thinking plays or being in the right areas to be a superstar. I think this is kind of what has happened with Byfield, you can see the enormous skill level but a lot of times he just ends up passing it to the wrong spot or not ending up in optimal scoring areas. In the NCAA and CHL when you are an A++ talent like those guys you can overcome it because the talent level you are competing against is so much less, in the NHL the prime scoring chances are just limited. Although, these were concerns about Fantilli jumping from the USHL to the NCAA and those were unwarranted.

I always say, if a guy is good enough for the NHL after freshman year, he should go, if he isn't he should stay. I think Fantilli is a notch or two above Power and will be able to step right into an NHL lineup next season. For selfish reasonsI hope he pulls a Power and comes back, but I am not expecting it.

X2 on hoping he returns for this sophomore season.

 

[Bfan14]

It's like you thing you're making some sort of point about their NCAA play when I already said that Fantilli is having a better NCAA season than Cooley to date.

Keep ignoring their WJCs though.

Weren't you in the Bedard thread saying WJC is pretty meaningless when trying to put down Bedard?

 

[Herby]

It's like you thing you're making some sort of point about their NCAA play when I already said that Fantilli is having a better NCAA season than Cooley to date.

Keep ignoring their WJCs though.

Why should dominant play over the last two years in league play be cancelled out in any way by a WJC?