F Adam Fantilli - Univ. of Michigan, NCAA (2023 Draft)

[wetcoast]

From watching him at the Under 18s, a handful of games at Michigan, and throughout this tournament, I'm not sure if he processes the game well enough to be that year in/year out 85+ point center that your drafting him to be if you pick him second overall.

I don't think his overall offensive toolkit/arsenal is elite, but he will be an elite skater in the NHL, that much is obvious. He has the skillset to be the kind of guy that is more effective in tight games such as the playoffs than some random regular season game in November.

Throughout the tournament he has turned the puck over a lot and has tunnel vision at times, but his two way effort has been noticeable. If I was advising him, I'd be saying play more like Toews, less like McDavid. Fantilli has the tools to be a great player, but there are some concerns for me.

He is probably, ceiling wise, what you would get if you morphed McDavid together with his team mate Ryan McLeod.

 

[MichaelFarrell]

From watching him at the Under 18s, a handful of games at Michigan, and throughout this tournament, I'm not sure if he processes the game well enough to be that year in/year out 85+ point center that your drafting him to be if you pick him second overall.

I don't think his overall offensive toolkit/arsenal is elite, but he will be an elite skater in the NHL, that much is obvious. He has the skillset to be the kind of guy that is more effective in tight games such as the playoffs than some random regular season game in November.

Throughout the tournament he has turned the puck over a lot and has tunnel vision at times, but his two way effort has been noticeable. If I was advising him, I'd be saying play more like Toews, less like McDavid. Fantilli has the tools to be a great player, but there are some concerns for me.

This is a really good write up I think. I have that same problem with a lot of young players in all honesty. If Fantilli focuses more on his two-way ability and engages more physically, I think he’ll be a really valuable player. I have some concerns with Fantilli’s offensive upside being a bit overblown. I think he definitely has better potential as a two-way puck possession player.

Still, I definitely think he’s one of the safest picks in the draft and clearly has a projectable path to the NHL.

 

[Lavar Ball]

Picked up a pair of goals against Minnesota

 

[brakeyawself]

Both McKenzie and Pronman said that about a quarter of scouts have Fantilli first overall. I know of scouts irl who think the same (and more that disagree). If you think that my opinion isn't shared by other people, you haven't been listening to enough people.

15% max. It's definitively a heterodox perspective.

Now if you want to say you might be skeptical of getting Bedard on your club, for a number of reasons, then I might agree. But to me at least, none of those have to do with his talent or ability. However, if I thought there were, personality issues, selfish issues, Jon Tavares "look at me I'm so good who cares about winning" issues, then I might realistically consider trading down or taking another player ahead of him.

And no, I wouldn't want Tavares on my team no matter how good he is, which is admittedly great. But after seeing how his time with the Isles went down...... I'll pass. Terrific fantasy player though. And of course, he is the perfect player for a team that has no plans in ending a 56 year Stanley Cup drought.

But it's not a matter of those other players being more talented and more highly skilled, or even for that matter, equally talented and equally skilled. They just aren't. It's Bedard >>> Everyone else.

 

[brakeyawself]

Even with that said, I think he's probably better than Cooley right now and more ready to go to the NHL because of his stride. Would be shocked if someone goes 2OA over him.

I think they are very close, but I do think ultimately Fantilli will be better. Cooley might be more fun to watch sometimes though, he can certainly get on the nerve of the opposition. And I honestly think both will be high end 1Cs. But I don't think Cooley will quite be in his tier. Fantilli's size gives him an advantage and just his ability to dominate and take control of a game, is on another level.

Honestly, I think Bedard - Fantilli, will be like Ovi-Malkin or McDavic-Eichel. Maybe not quite on McDavid or Ovis level, but just relative to one another.

 

[Corso]

The best true freshman to play college hockey since Eichel.....anyone who doesn't believe he will not be a franchise center in the NHL has not really been objectively watching him. Is he Bedard....no and few players ever have been or will be but Fantili would have been the number one pick in the past several drafts. He is that good.

 

[Just Linda]

15% max. It's definitively a heterodox perspective.

Now if you want to say you might be skeptical of getting Bedard on your club, for a number of reasons, then I might agree. But to me at least, none of those have to do with his talent or ability. However, if I thought there were, personality issues, selfish issues, Jon Tavares "look at me I'm so good who cares about winning" issues, then I might realistically consider trading down or taking another player ahead of him.

And no, I wouldn't want Tavares on my team no matter how good he is, which is admittedly great. But after seeing how his time with the Isles went down...... I'll pass. Terrific fantasy player though. And of course, he is the perfect player for a team that has no plans in ending a 56 year Stanley Cup drought.

But it's not a matter of those other players being more talented and more highly skilled, or even for that matter, equally talented and equally skilled. They just aren't. It's Bedard >>> Everyone else.

There's reasons why people wouldn't want to take Bedard 1oa (though less now than a month ago). It's not attitude or selfishness or personality, I've heard none of those issues about him. Might be some of the same play driving complaints Tavares had but I doubt people are thinking that, Bedard drives play just fine.

I don't see Bedard as an NHL centre. I feel it works against his strengths. Bedard cheats so much as a player, there's a reason why he's always behind on the dmen and getting breakaways without having to blow by dmen. As a winger, people are going to be very happy but as a centre, he's going to have to change up away from who he is. I have no concerns about Bedard as an NHL superstar, I have concerns of him as a centre. If someone else carries the puck for him and he can get lost in plays and just be an elite producer, 90% of my concerns don't really factor in on him.

It's just that simple, I do think Fantilli is capable of being a 2 way, point per game player. I think Bedard will be the better player but that nearly every team at the bottom of the standings need a Fantilli more than a Bedard.

So essentially, my reason for Fantilli first could be simplified.

In 3 years I'd rather have Gaudreau - Fantilli - Laine than I would have Gaudreau - Bedard - Laine.

I feel Bedard is offensively superior and is better, I feel that Fantilli will help teams moreso.

 

[majormajor]

There's reasons why people wouldn't want to take Bedard 1oa (though less now than a month ago). It's not attitude or selfishness or personality, I've heard none of those issues about him. Might be some of the same play driving complaints Tavares had but I doubt people are thinking that, Bedard drives play just fine.

I don't see Bedard as an NHL centre. I feel it works against his strengths. Bedard cheats so much as a player, there's a reason why he's always behind on the dmen and getting breakaways without having to blow by dmen. As a winger, people are going to be very happy but as a centre, he's going to have to change up away from who he is. I have no concerns about Bedard as an NHL superstar, I have concerns of him as a centre. If someone else carries the puck for him and he can get lost in plays and just be an elite producer, 90% of my concerns don't really factor in on him.

It's just that simple, I do think Fantilli is capable of being a 2 way, point per game player. I think Bedard will be the better player but that nearly every team at the bottom of the standings need a Fantilli more than a Bedard.

So essentially, my reason for Fantilli first could be simplified.

In 3 years I'd rather have Gaudreau - Fantilli - Laine than I would have Gaudreau - Bedard - Laine.

I feel Bedard is offensively superior and is better, I feel that Fantilli will help teams moreso.

I can see why you'd think the Fantilli line might give up fewer goals, but you'd expect Bedard to score a lot more. And I'm not sure Bedard would be bad defensively as a center, not in the overall sense. He wouldn't be great off puck but if his line always has the puck then it shouldn't matter as much. That's probably how Bedard graded out in the top 1 or 2% defensively at the WJC. It was actually Fantilli turning over the puck more often.

You're also likely to see better constructed lines than the one you mentioned. It would be something more like Gaudreau-Bedard-Jenner, at least to start, where Jenner probably ends up doing a lot of the center work. And that's fine. Landeskog does a lot of the center work for Mackinnon, Haula for Jack Hughes, etc... When you're dealing with the best players in the game, you can do that and it's fine. Bedard doesn't need to be a pure center to have a much bigger effect on the game than Fantilli could.

 

[Gliff]

There's reasons why people wouldn't want to take Bedard 1oa (though less now than a month ago). It's not attitude or selfishness or personality, I've heard none of those issues about him. Might be some of the same play driving complaints Tavares had but I doubt people are thinking that, Bedard drives play just fine.

I don't see Bedard as an NHL centre. I feel it works against his strengths. Bedard cheats so much as a player, there's a reason why he's always behind on the dmen and getting breakaways without having to blow by dmen. As a winger, people are going to be very happy but as a centre, he's going to have to change up away from who he is. I have no concerns about Bedard as an NHL superstar, I have concerns of him as a centre. If someone else carries the puck for him and he can get lost in plays and just be an elite producer, 90% of my concerns don't really factor in on him.

It's just that simple, I do think Fantilli is capable of being a 2 way, point per game player. I think Bedard will be the better player but that nearly every team at the bottom of the standings need a Fantilli more than a Bedard.

So essentially, my reason for Fantilli first could be simplified.

In 3 years I'd rather have Gaudreau - Fantilli - Laine than I would have Gaudreau - Bedard - Laine.

I feel Bedard is offensively superior and is better, I feel that Fantilli will help teams moreso.

I hope you are right and Bedard falls to the Ducks at 2.

Ill gladly take this for the next 10 years:
Bedard-McTavish-_____
____-Zegras-Terry

 

[BKarchitect]

Comps to Bedard are a losing battle and really do Fantilli no service at this point. We can revisit in five years.

When I see Fantilli I still see something along the lines of younger Mark Scheifele (before his game took something of a complacent turn a few years ago). That’s may not be a top 5 superstar level center (which hate him or not, Eichel was well on the way to being before injuries and other issues and I do think Eichel was a better prospect) but that’s I think what we could consider a franchise level #1 center and borderline top 10 center at his best. If you are picking second or third or fourth and have a chance to grab that level of prospect - it’s a great consolation prize. He will be an awesome fit for any of this years bottom feeders.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Even with that said, I think he's probably better than Cooley right now and more ready to go to the NHL because of his stride. Would be shocked if someone goes 2OA over him.

I don't think he's better than Cooley yet, though I think it's really close. Fantilli's numbers are inflated by a weaker schedule - notable 2 games against a bottom feeder in LSSU.

In conference games:
Cooley 15gp 8g 19p
Fantilli 10gp 6g 13p

Cooley had a slow start and Fantilli had a really hot start, but since mid November:

Cooley 13gp 9g 21p
Fantilli 8gp 5g 10p

I think Fantilli has probably been a bit better in the NCAA, but since that mid November point I think it's been Cooley, especially when you consider that he was much better at the WJC. I know their situations were different, but still Cooley put up 7g in 14p vs Fantilli's 2g 5p...

 

[MichaelFarrell]

I don't think he's better than Cooley yet, though I think it's really close. Fantilli's numbers are inflated by a weaker schedule - notable 2 games against a bottom feeder in LSSU.

In conference games:
Cooley 14gp 7g 17p
Fantilli 10gp 6g 13p

Cooley had a slow start and Fantilli had a really hot start, but since mid November:

Cooley 13gp 9g 21p
Fantilli 8gp 5g 10p

I think Fantilli has probably been a bit better in the NCAA, but since that mid November point I think it's been Cooley, especially when you consider that he was much better at the WJC. I know their situations were different, but still Cooley put up 7g in 14p vs Fantilli's 2g 5p...

It’s also important to remember they play different ways and need to improve in different areas from eachother. Cooley has better vision than Fantilli and Fantilli has better puck possession ability. Cooley is better once in the offensive zone but Fantilli is better at initiating zone entry.

Different players. Different strengths

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The best true freshman to play college hockey since Eichel.....anyone who doesn't believe he will not be a franchise center in the NHL has not really been objectively watching him. Is he Bedard....no and few players ever have been or will be but Fantili would have been the number one pick in the past several drafts. He is that good.

I think he's probably the best true freshman forward, but his own teammate Luke Hughes' freshman year was arguably as good or better.

Adam Fox's 40p in 35gp is probably up there too.

 

[Breakers]

since returning from the world juniors

Fantilli has 7 points in 4 games
Cooley has 6 points in 6 games

Sounds recent enough for me

 

[Juxtaposer]

since returning from the world juniors

Fantilli has 7 points in 4 games
Cooley has 6 points in 6 games

Sounds recent enough for me

Plus, Cooley plays with Knies and Snuggerud, whereas Fantilli plays with Duke and Brindley. Cooley’s linemates, special teams, and overall team are significantly stronger than Fantilli’s.

 

[Breakers]

Plus, Cooley plays with Knies and Snuggerud, whereas Fantilli plays with Duke and Brindley. Cooley’s linemates, special teams, and overall team are significantly stronger than Fantilli’s.

Plus Naruto said they put Brindley with Fantilli to get him going.

Guy had like 1 point in 6 games before it.

 

[95snipes]

Plus, Cooley plays with Knies and Snuggerud, whereas Fantilli plays with Duke and Brindley. Cooley’s linemates, special teams, and overall team are significantly stronger than Fantilli’s.

Or is it that Fantilli doesn't use his linemates well so they put him with Duke and Brindley to maximize his game? Two players that don't need to the puck that just focus on forechecking and puck retrievals to allow Fantilli to play more a puck dominant game?

It's not like they don't have Mackie Samoskevich, who's one of the most talented players in college hockey, just sitting on their second line who they tried with Fantilli earlier in the season.

Both Minnesota and Michigan have virtually identical power plays percentages this season. A unit of L.Hughes-Fantilli-Samoskevich-McGroaty-TJ Hughes is nothing to complain about by any means.

As far as an NHL projection, I think Cooley has the potential to be a better producer than Fantilli if he plays with other high end players. Fantilli has more upside to impact a game than Cooley, but it's a lot more of a projection around his size/skating if you ask me. You need to be more than just a great skater to produce offense in the NHL.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

since returning from the world juniors

Fantilli has 7 points in 4 games
Cooley has 6 points in 6 games

Sounds recent enough for me

Sample size

Plus, Cooley plays with Knies and Snuggerud, whereas Fantilli plays with Duke and Brindley. Cooley’s linemates, special teams, and overall team are significantly stronger than Fantilli’s.

I think the linemate argument definitely holds weight, but Fantilli spent much of the year with Samoskevich, who isn't chopped liver. Fantilli also benefits from L Hughes and Casey as elite puck moving defenders.

But each team's 1st PP unit is pretty stacked, and they have similar efficacy. Minnesota has the better offense, but it's not a huge difference (3.88 G/GP vs 3.75 G/GP). The big difference between the two teams is team defense and goaltending.

I don't disagree that Cooley is in a better situation to produce, but what he's done since mid November is pretty ridiculous.

 

[Breakers]

Sample size

I think the linemate argument definitely holds weight, but Fantilli spent much of the year with Samoskevich, who isn't chopped liver. Fantilli also benefits from L Hughes and Casey as elite puck moving defenders.

But each team's 1st PP unit is pretty stacked, and they have similar efficacy. Minnesota has the better offense, but it's not a huge difference (3.88 G/GP vs 3.75 G/GP). The big difference between the two teams is team defense and goaltending.

I don't disagree that Cooley is in a better situation to produce, but what he's done since mid November is pretty ridiculous.

That’s post world juniors
So no, as of right now that is the best sample

And you only chose mid November to fit your argument as Cooley got served against the NCHC and didn’t have a single multipoint game except lindenwood game before your “mid November” start date

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That’s post world juniors
So no, as of right now that is the best sample

And you only chose mid November to fit your argument as Cooley got served against the NCHC and didn’t have a single multipoint game except lindenwood game before your “mid November” start date

During that stretch:

6p in 4gp vs NCHC (1.5ppg)
15p in 9gp vs Big 10 (1.67ppg)

Yeah those NCHC games really boosted his numbers.

And I had their conference numbers wrong.

In conference games:
Cooley 15gp 8g 19p
Fantilli 10gp 6g 13p

That's essentially identical production.

 

[Breakers]

During that stretch:

6p in 4gp vs NCHC (1.5ppg)
15p in 9gp vs Big 10 (1.67ppg)

Yeah those NCHC games really boosted his numbers.

And I had their conference numbers wrong.

In conference games:
Cooley 15gp 8g 19p
Fantilli 10gp 6g 13p

That's essentially identical production.

Meanwhile
Fantill got knocked out by adenovirus that decimated the team over 3 weeks and put Fantilli out for a weekend and said he couldn’t get his breath against Harvard
They were playing goalies as players

That random start date is trash argument once you consider context.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Meanwhile
Fantill got knocked out by adenovirus that decimated the team over 3 weeks and put Fantilli out for a weekend and said he couldn’t get his breath against Harvard
They were playing goalies as players

That random start date is trash argument once you consider context.

They have nearly identical PPG against conference opponents. Last I checked, Harvard is not in conference.

 

[Breakers]

They have nearly identical PPG against conference opponents. Last I checked, Harvard is not in conference.

That random start date is such a stupid argument

I've decided ill choose that start date as that is his first multi point game in 10 games
and that's also when fantilli is out with adenovirus

"Mid November" give me a break
Fantilli had 23 points before that to Coley's 9

embarrassing argument

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That random start date is such a stupid argument

I've decided ill choose that start date as that is his first multi point game in 10 games
and that's also when fantilli is out with adenovirus

"Mid November" give me a break
Fantilli had 23 points before that to Coley's 9

embarrassing argument

Try again. Those conference numbers are for the whole season...

 

[Breakers]

Try again. Those conference numbers are for the whole season...

And look at their numbers for the whole season.

Mid November LOLOLOL
Their SOS for the season is so separated by 5 basis points

Who gives a Frank about conference scheduling

That comparison and starting date is embarrassing