Value of: extended Debrincat

[sennysensen]

I can think of 2 times ever a player was extended then traded...

Matthew Tkachuk last year, and he was part of that process.

Marian Hossa in 2004/5, they extended him then surprise, you're traded, which is the main reason Chara walked in 2006, because it ticked him off that Muckler did that to his good friend.

If The Cat is traded, it will be at next year's trade deadline.

Although, there is a chance he gets traded in the summer, however his value is less then. It's unusual, but The Cat at $9 million for 1 season is less than him being traded at the deadline with $3 mil remaining, some of which could be retained.

 

[UglyPuckling]

1) Debrincat would absolutely get more than 7mil as a UFA
2) Ottawa will 100% qualify him if he is not traded before
3) Debrincat can sign a long-term deal this summer

As you know, there's lots of internal discussion on the Senators board as to what might happen and the plan for Debrincat. Many (possibly most) people don't feel he should be paid ultimately above Tkachuk's & Stutzle's cap hit. So, if Debrincat is looking for $8.5 m or greater, there is a feeling he'll get dangled in the early summer.

One big variable is what the cap ceiling will be for next season. If remains at the announced $83.5 m, the Senators will have some constraints and will be tight against the cap. If it goes up fairly significantly beyond the announced $1 m increase, that could impact the approach to what will be done with Debrincat.

We'll just have to see how it plays out.

I don’t see him traded this summer. I do see him in a situation where he will need to decide if taking a one year QO of 9 million and then testing free agency will bring him more money over his career than signing a long term deal for less on the cap. Will 9 + his next contract as a UFA be more than if he accepts a long term deal at 7x 8 years?

The part you are missing is the cap ceiling constraint the Senators will face if Debrincat gets his $9 m qualifying offer.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I don’t see him traded this summer. I do see him in a situation where he will need to decide if taking a one year QO of 9 million and then testing free agency will bring him more money over his career than signing a long term deal for less on the cap. Will 9 + his next contract as a UFA be more than if he accepts a long term deal at 7x 8 years?

That is definitely a calculation they will make, but it is not a complete accounting of factors. He has to count on improving his value, or at least maintaining it, but will also have factors that are completely beyond his control, such as cap space allocation this summer vs next (GMs will finally see an increase.... will they be responsible? Cap space & the value of cap dollars can vary greatly from year to year) or injury.

He can bet on himself, but I think he is just as likely to do so over a 3-year deal (say, $8.5m, $8.25m, $8m) as on a one-year deal. So much risk in a one-year deal for what will probably amount to a small difference over the long run.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I can think of 2 times ever a player was extended then traded...

Matthew Tkachuk last year, and he was part of that process.

Marian Hossa in 2004/5, they extended him then surprise, you're traded, which is the main reason Chara walked in 2006, because it ticked him off that Muckler did that to his good friend.

If The Cat is traded, it will be at next year's trade deadline.

Although, there is a chance he gets traded in the summer, however his value is less then. It's unusual, but The Cat at $9 million for 1 season is less than him being traded at the deadline with $3 mil remaining, some of which could be retained.

Good points but the Senators could allow teams to talk to the Debrincat camp prior to his QO kicking in. We've seen players sign their new contracts a day after a trade was made a few times.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I can think of 2 times ever a player was extended then traded...

Matthew Tkachuk last year, and he was part of that process.

Marian Hossa in 2004/5, they extended him then surprise, you're traded, which is the main reason Chara walked in 2006, because it ticked him off that Muckler did that to his good friend.

If The Cat is traded, it will be at next year's trade deadline.

Although, there is a chance he gets traded in the summer, however his value is less then. It's unusual, but The Cat at $9 million for 1 season is less than him being traded at the deadline with $3 mil remaining, some of which could be retained.

Any extension would be negotiated with the new team. Last offseason you would have been able to say it's only happened once, 15 years ago, but it would soon be proven that you made your conclusion on evidence that didn't exactly show what you thought it did.

The part you are missing is the cap ceiling constraint the Senators will face if Debrincat gets his $9 m qualifying offer.

I also see no reason why Ottawa couldn't retain on this early in the season. Trade Debrincat with 25% retained for a 5mil player.

It's not my expectation, but if they are not looking at every possibility, management is doing themselves a disservice.

 

[BondraTime]

I’m not sure any team is going to be happy with him as a top forward on your team salary wise. I can’t see a team paying him as a core member doing well.

I’m expecting a late 1st + B prospect type deal. Don’t think any team trading for DBC will be giving up good NHL talent.

With a palatable extension, I still don’t see him getting a Fiala return.

 

[lomiller1]

You said "even if he signs a 1 year deal it starts with a 9". What I said was essentially "only if he signs a 1 year deal will it start with a 9." Where is my logic is so faulty?

Because he has the leverage to get that $9 million in year one regardless of what he gets in the rest of the contract. Either he'll get paid $9 million in real dollars in year one or some of that $9 million will be deferred to a later year, but either way he's getting that money regardless of how long the the deal is.

 

[Fatass]

As you know, there's lots of internal discussion as to what might happen and the plan for Debrincat. Many (possibly most) people don't feel he should be paid ultimately above Tkachuk's & Stutzle's cap hit. So, if Debrincat is looking for $8.5 m or greater, there is a feeling he'll get dangled in the early summer.

One big variable is what the cap ceiling will be for next season. If remains at the announced $83.5 m, the Senators will have some constraints and will be tight against the cap. If it goes up fairly significantly beyond the announced $1 m increase, that could impact the approach to what will be done with Debrincat.

We'll just have to see how it plays out.


The part you are missing is the cap ceiling constraint the Senators will face if Debrincat gets his $9 m qualifying offer.

If they try to trade him before he’s be qualified then the new team is stuck in the same situation. He’s a winger who can put up points, but does he drive his line, or is he more a compliment to other players?
What is is actual dollar value? I just don’t see a club paying him more than 7 per for what he provides.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

I would think he will bet on himself with a 1 year contract, especially with Norris coming back next season.

 

[UglyPuckling]

I’m not sure any team is going to be happy with him as a top forward on your team salary wise. I can’t see a team paying him as a core member doing well.

I’m expecting a late 1st + B prospect type deal. Don’t think any team trading for DBC will be giving up good NHL talent.

With a palatable extension, I still don’t see him getting a Fiala return.

Yes, they may not get the equivalent return back relative to what they paid to acquire him. That is certainly possible and I wouldn't be surprised if that occurred. I really didn't like that trade from the perspective of the term on the Debrincat contract, although I can see the motivation the organization used knowing the team would be put of for sale (boost attendance, hence boost sale price) and the promises that were made (according to reports) to Chabot & Brady.

The above posts though were focused on the various alternatives or paths moving forward for the Senators versus trying to determine what the return might be.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Because he has the leverage to get that $9 million in year one regardless of what he gets in the rest of the contract. Either he'll get paid $9 million in real dollars in year one or some of that $9 million will be deferred to a later year, but either way he's getting that money regardless of how long the the deal is.

Uh, again, thats far from a guarantee. And even if it is a guarantee (its not), by no means does that guarantee imply or even make likely that Debrincat's next contract will start with a 9.

 

[lomiller1]

If Debrincat wants to sign a long term deal at a lower number, he can.

And if Connor McDavid wants to sign for league minimum, he can. Just because something "can happen" doesn't mean it will.

In any case you seem to be confused at the difference between AAV and salary. He could very well sign for an AAV less than $9 million, but that doesn't mean that $9 million isn't part of his salary. eg:

lets say he's worth $7million X 6 years on the UFA market. Ottawa needs to pay him the $9 million in year 1 to retain his rights so his final contract becomes $51 million over 7 years for an AAV of $7.3 million.

This is fine if Ottawa just wants to retain him, but as far as trade value goes you have a player whose market vale is $7millionX6 years but he's getting paid $7.3million X 7 years. Without retention he's overpaid and won't return much in trade.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

And if Connor McDavid wants to sign for league minimum, he can. Just because something "can happen" doesn't mean it will.

In any case you seem to be confused at the difference between AAV and salary. He could very well sign for an AAV less than $9 million, but that doesn't mean that $9 million isn't part of his salary. eg:

lets say he's worth $7million X 6 years on the UFA market. Ottawa needs to pay him the $9 million in year 1 to retain his rights so his final contract becomes $51 million over 7 years for an AAV of $7.3 million.

This is fine if Ottawa just wants to retain him, but as far as trade value goes you have a player whose market vale is $7millionX6 years but he's getting paid $7.3million X 7 years. Without retention he's overpaid and won't return much in trade.

Yes, the QO makes it more likely that he is overpaid than if he was just a UFA. No one is confused about this lol. No one has disagreed with this. No one has said anything otherwise.

You are the only one who seems confused here.

 

[lomiller1]

Uh, again, thats far from a guarantee. And even if it is a guarantee (its not), by no means does that guarantee imply or even make likely that Debrincat's next contract will start with a 9.

Because he's just going to decide he doesn't want an extra $2 million?

 

[lomiller1]

Yes, the QO makes it more likely that he is overpaid than if he was just a UFA. No one is confused about this lol. No one has disagreed with this. No one has said anything otherwise.

You are the only one who seems confused here.

You've been confused about this the entire thread. I've told you that at least 5 times and you disputed it every time. But, at least we are making progress now.

So now that you agree he's going to be overpaid on his next contract lets consider the trade value overpaid players on long term contracts have. Without retention overpaid players have little to no trade value, Debrincat will be overpaid unless Ottawa lets him walk as a UFA, therefor he has relatively little trade value. He probably still has some, but it's a lot less than you would think just looking at his numbers.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Because he's just going to decide he doesn't want an extra $2 million?

Man, you make missing the point into a true art.

Not at all what I said.

You've been confused about this the entire thread. I've told you that at least 5 times and you disputed it every time. But, at least we are making progress now.

So now that you agree he's going to be overpaid on his next contract lets consider the trade value overpaid players on long term contracts have. Without retention overpaid players have little to no trade value, Debrincat will be overpaid unless Ottawa lets him walk as a UFA, therefor he has relatively little trade value. He probably still has some, but it's a lot less than you would think just looking at his numbers.

Lmao. You know, I've gotten messages laughing at you, eh? People don't understand how badly you've jumbled this all. Re-read your first post.

If he's not under contract he's got zero trade value. (Wrong) If the Sens sign him he starts off at a small overpay (maybe... he can also recognize that the only way he truly gets that $9mil is if he signs his QO... WHICH BRINGS RISKS THAT HE MIGHT NOT WANT TO TAKE ON) and has slightly negative trade value. The only way the Sens get anything meaningful for him is if they re-sign him and his numbers pick up significantly (an inference that, even on your far-less-flawless-than-you-present logic, requires a leap).

I'm done, buddy.

 

[lomiller1]

Man, you make missing the point into a true art.

Not at all what I said.


Lmao. You know, I've gotten messages laughing at you, eh? People don't understand how badly you've jumbled this all. Re-read your first post.



I'm done, buddy.

Don't rewrite other peoples posts and attribute it to them. Here is the my post without the edits you made to it. Notice I'm saying the very thing you just said you don't disagree with.

If he's not under contract he's got zero trade value. If the Sens sign him he starts off at a small overpay and has slightly negative trade value. The only way the Sens get anything meaningful for him is if they re-sign him and his numbers pick up significantly.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Don't rewrite other peoples posts and attribute it to them. Here is the my post without the edits you made to it. Notice I'm saying the very thing you just said you don't disagree with.

Lol, the bolded comments were my responses. I guess I shouldn't be surprised....

No, you're not saying the very thing I said I don't disagree with.

If someone says there is a possibility that the world ends tomorrow, they are correct, if not a little pedantic. If someone says "the world will end tomorrow," they are being sensationalistic and are probably not worth arguing with.

Anyways, bye for real.

 

[lomiller1]

No, you're not saying the very thing I said I don't disagree with.

In your own words:

Yes, the QO makes it more likely that he is overpaid than if he was just a UFA. No one is confused about this lol. No one has disagreed with this. No one has said anything otherwise.

but somehow you disagree with:

If the Sens sign him he starts off at a small overpay and has slightly negative trade value. The only way the Sens get anything meaningful for him is if they re-sign him and his numbers pick up significantly.

 

[Fatass]

Don't rewrite other peoples posts and attribute it to them. Here is the my post without the edits you made to it. Notice I'm saying the very thing you just said you don't disagree with.

This is similar to what the Canucks are experiencing with Boeser. His QO was over 7, so they negotiated a short term 3 year deal at 6.65 per. Even though he’s putting up similar numbers to Debrincat there seems to be no market for him, without retention.
9 mil in cap space had a lot of value. Likely more in value than what any trade return an extended Debrincat might return.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I would think he will bet on himself with a 1 year contract, especially with Norris coming back next season.

If anything Norris coming back would give him pause about betting on himself.

Norris is actually the bigger shooting threat of the two and when he's healthy will probably be playing on the top PP, with DeBrincat being bumped to the 2nd PP, which isn't a great place to be if you're hoping to pump your numbers up to get a big UFA deal.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I can think of 2 times ever a player was extended then traded...

Matthew Tkachuk last year, and he was part of that process.

Marian Hossa in 2004/5, they extended him then surprise, you're traded, which is the main reason Chara walked in 2006, because it ticked him off that Muckler did that to his good friend.

If The Cat is traded, it will be at next year's trade deadline.

Although, there is a chance he gets traded in the summer, however his value is less then. It's unusual, but The Cat at $9 million for 1 season is less than him being traded at the deadline with $3 mil remaining, some of which could be retained.

You're taking the "extension then traded" part too literally. Plenty of players have been dealt to a team after talking about an extension, and then almost immediately sign a new contract, which is basically the same thing. Might happen a bit more often now if players are wanting an 8 year contract instead of a 7 year deal.

Fiala last year is an example of this. He signed an extension the day after being traded.

Any team seriously interested in trading for DeBrincat will be discuss what he's looking for on a long-term deal and gauge his interest in re-signing.

 

[Akrapovince]

I would love to find two Coleman/Goodrow type players instead of shelling out the 9 million dollars for DeBrincat.

If we were to somehow turn DeBrincat salary into Lawson Crouse and Owen Tippett I think it will work out better for this team.

As soon as next year, Timmy will not need a player making 9m to preform like he is making 9m.

 

[Hale The Villain]

If he's not under contract he's got zero trade value. If the Sens sign him he starts off at a small overpay and has slightly negative trade value. The only way the Sens get anything meaningful for him is if they re-sign him and his numbers pick up significantly.

This is just silly. DeBrincat absolutely has positive value on a 1 year deal at 9M.

Every summer teams routinely throw stupid long-term deals at worse players to get short-term help fully knowing that they'll end up backfiring eventually.

Overpaying on a 1 year deal instead of adding someone on a longer term contract may be ideal for a team like Carolina for example. They have a boatload of cap space for next season, but the following year they need to re-sign Aho, Necas and Pesce, among others.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Wings would be all over this. They have 4 1st rounders in the next 2 drafts and Yzerman said hes looking to add young core pieces with elite skill - Debrincat fits the mould and we have the space to lock him in long term.

Debrincat - Larkin - Raymond would be sick.

Det Trades: 2023 NYI 1st Round pick (about 15-20 OA) + Alex Nedjelkovic + 2023 2nd (STL)/Fabbri for Debrincats rights.

Who says no? If they cant sign him they need to get a decent return.

Ottawa wouldn't be interested.
1. We'd be making Detroit a better team; why? We are competing for the same Playoff spots.
2. The package you have offered is very fair; not good enough though for a divisional trade.

You want DBC?

It's going to cost you Soderblom +