Value of: extended Debrincat

[Ledge And Dairy]

7.5mil on the Pens is way too much with the contracts they already have, plus the Pens already have way too many small players and adding a 5'-7" 165 lb guy doesn't do anything for the team.

And not even close to the top 10 worst take. The first 50 highest bad takes are already set in stone by the Peter Prucha vs Sidney Crosby thread.

Thats not how you worded it though. There is a difference in "7.5M is out of our price range" and "7.5M is a horribad amount for DeBrincat."

He should easily get at least 8.5M and I would personally be shocked if he doesn't get the same contract as Barzal.

Some people in this thread are suggesting he might not get qualified, that's ridiculous. He's the type of player you move pieces around to make it work. For example there is bo chance they are justifying letting Cat walk to keep Joseph

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

If DeBrincat doesn't re-sign in Ottawa I think the most likely destination by far is Detroit.

They just dealt Bertuzzi and Hronek for multiple 1sts. They have over 30M in cap space opening up this summer and DeBrincat is from Michigan.

Easy to see them putting one of their 1sts + more on the table. Wouldn't be much coming back off the roster. Maybe Fabbri as a cheaper replacement LW, but it would open up enough cap space to help fill some other holes in the roster.

This is something I can definitely see.

If he isn't offered his QO from Ottawa, I could see him going to UFA and then back in Chicago. They have money they literally have to spend. I believe they are sitting with like $40M in cap space next season.

He will be offered his QO by Ottawa (or he will be traded before it is due).

Nah. Rust is a proven complementary player on a good deal, while DeBrincat is an impending FA who's gonna make bank. No retention, and any additional asset would have to be small.

I figured as much... that was just my way of saying there is probably not a deal to be made there.

where do you find one of those?

All over the place! That said, I would also welcome a 1A type goalie.

It's a possibility that he takes his QO and walks himself to UFA in a year, but I doubt it's the most likely outcome.

There will almost certainly be teams willing to offer him 7-8M on a long-term deal this off-season, even after a bad year by his standards.

Hard to pass up a practically guaranteed 50-60M. Guy like Klingberg is a cautionary tale why betting on yourself can backfire tremendously.

Hey, maybe he will take the QO to UFA... but it's just one of many possibilities. Not to mention Ottawa can trade him before his QO is even due.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

This is something I can definitely see.

He will be offered his QO by Ottawa (or he will be traded before it is due).

I figured as much... that was just my way of saying there is probably not a deal to be made there.

All over the place! That said, I would also welcome a 1A type goalie.

Out of curiosity, if Rust doesn't fit the bill, what sort of top 6 forward making under 6 mil are you looking for?

 

[Mersss]

He is also 25 years old - turning 26 in December. He has 55 points in 66 games but is -23 and his shooting percentage is way down.

Any more facts you feel should be listed?

Doesn't really matter. Debrincat can bang on having a better season next year instead of taking a LT deal after his worst season in 3-4 years.

He takes 9M$ that brings him to UFA, and if his production (likelly) improves, he gets more than 8x8 nxt year.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Out of curiosity, if Rust doesn't fit the bill, what sort of top 6 forward making under 6 mil are you looking for?

Someone younger or with less term. If Rust was signed for 3 years, or was 27, that would be a piece I'd be interested in for sure.

Other examples:
- Garland
- Schmaltz
- Mangiapane
- Buchnevich
- Burakovsky
- Danault
- Bjorkstrand
- McCann
- Bennett
- Crouse
- Kotkaniemi (probably closer to middle 6 than top 6)
- Farabee (probably closer to middle 6 than top 6)

Basically, a list of guys who I'd love to have right now but probably wouldn't love on a 5-year deal beyond their 30 year old season (purely based on where Ottawa is at right now).

It may be that none of those guys are available, in which case we'd probably be looking at cheaper, less established forwards, quantity over quality (e.x. good, cost-controlled 3rd liner + NHL ready ELC forward + other pieces), and/or the other pieces listed in OP

Doesn't really matter. Debrincat can bang on having a better season next year instead of taking a LT deal after his worst season in 3-4 years.

He takes 9M$ that brings him to UFA, and if his production (likelly) improves, he gets more than 8x8 nxt year.

Yes, he can.

Or, he can do something else.

He can also "bang" on some team seeing the value that he can bring and paying him as the two-time 40 goal scorer in the his prime that he is.

The crazy thing about life is that neither one of us knows for sure. I'll leave you with that.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I could see Montreal make a strong play for him. I don't think they will be ok with skimming the bottom of the lottery for too many more years.

Dach-Suzuki-CC
Anderson-Fantili-DeBrincat would be a nice little top 6.

 

[Esq]

I see the Sens throwing a lot of money to keep him.

 

[sxvnert]

Sens would be better off trading him and using that money & return on another top four RD.

Chabot -------
Chychrun Zub
Sanderson Hamonic/Holden

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

He'll get $8.5m over plenty of years from someone. 362 points in 434 games and exactly half are goals. A team like Carolina or Detroit would love him if he's available.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Doesn't really matter. Debrincat can bang on having a better season next year instead of taking a LT deal after his worst season in 3-4 years.

He takes 9M$ that brings him to UFA, and if his production (likelly) improves, he gets more than 8x8 nxt year.

And what if he has a second disappointing year or gets injured?

Assuming there are still teams willing to pay 7.5-8M on an 8 year extension, passing up a guaranteed 60-64M to get maybe 8M more (on say a 9M x 7 deal) over the next 8 years doesn't seem like it justifies the risk.

Look at what happened to Klingberg. He reportedly held out for 8M x 8 extension and didn't accept the Stars' offer of 7.25M x 8.

Ended up getting a 1 year 7M deal from Anaheim, and based on how much he returned at the deadline he's probably looking at a significant cut in salary on his next deal.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

And what if he has a second disappointing year or gets injured?

Assuming there are still teams willing to pay 7.5-8M on an 8 year extension, passing up a guaranteed 60-64M to get maybe 8M more (on say a 9M x 7 deal) over the next 8 years doesn't seem like it justifies the risk.

Look at what happened to Klingberg. He reportedly held out for 8M x 8 extension and didn't accept the Stars' offer of 7.25M x 8.

Ended up getting a 1 year 7M deal from Anaheim, and based on how much he returned at the deadline he's probably looking at a significant cut in salary on his next deal.

His agent happens to represent Connor Brown, who right now is seeing exactly what can happen when you enter the year on an expiring deal.

Interestingly, if Brown doesn't re-up with Washington, it will be Jeff Jackson's first time taking one of his clients to UFA. Don't feel too bad for him, though... he got a pretty penny off of McDavid & Ekblad's deals.

 

[Craig Button]

And Matt Barzal is a buyout candidate right?

Useless facts for $400?

The number 7 has been eaten by a this HFBoards user.

 

[Djp]

If Ottawa was not going to sign him long, what teams can even afford him?

 

[Linds]

Not a chance he signs for less than 7 years. Some team will give him 8m+ as well

 

[Sensinitis]

If DeBrincat doesn't re-sign in Ottawa I think the most likely destination by far is Detroit.

They just dealt Bertuzzi and Hronek for multiple 1sts. They have over 30M in cap space opening up this summer and DeBrincat is from Michigan.

Easy to see them putting one of their 1sts + more on the table. Wouldn't be much coming back off the roster. Maybe Fabbri as a cheaper replacement LW, but it would open up enough cap space to help fill some other holes in the roster.

I think Cat to Detroit makes more sense as a UFA if he gets there

They aren’t in a position to be trading their 1st rounder imo, they should be keeping those to add more young talent

 

[Djp]

And what if he has a second disappointing year or gets injured?

Assuming there are still teams willing to pay 7.5-8M on an 8 year extension, passing up a guaranteed 60-64M to get maybe 8M more (on say a 9M x 7 deal) over the next 8 years doesn't seem like it justifies the risk.

Look at what happened to Klingberg. He reportedly held out for 8M x 8 extension and didn't accept the Stars' offer of 7.25M x 8.

Ended up getting a 1 year 7M deal from Anaheim, and based on how much he returned at the deadline he's probably looking at a significant cut in salary on his next deal.

if he’s a UFA in 2024…. He might have to wait in line in the market behind Matthews, Aho, and PLD. Both in a trade and signing as a UFA.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Not a chance he signs for less than 7 years. Some team will give him 8m+ as well

You are almost certainly right on both counts, but I'd say there is a slight possibility for him signing a shorter term deal.

His QO, of course, is an option, and there is some potential value - although a lot of risk - to signing a 2 or 3 year deal that allows him to re-enter UFA with a higher cap (while still being squarely in his prime). Then, he can sign a 7/8y year deal that takes him til his late 30s, rather than early/mid. If he drops off at say, 33 or 34, he could earn himself a lot of extra money.

I do not expect this to be how things go, but it's a possibility.

if he’s a UFA in 2024…. He might have to wait in line in the market behind Matthews, Aho, and PLD. Both in a trade and signing as a UFA.

Matthews and Aho are such a different level of player, and so unlikely to move, it's almost not worth considering. If either of those guys are dealt, it would be an extremely unique trade and one that has little bearing on Debrincat.

 

[Djp]

You are almost certainly right on both counts, but I'd say there is a slight possibility for him signing a shorter term deal.

His QO, of course, is an option, and there is some potential value - although a lot of risk - to signing a 2 or 3 year deal that allows him to re-enter UFA with a higher cap (while still being squarely in his prime). Then, he can sign a 7/8y year deal that takes him til his late 30s, rather than early/mid. If he drops off at say, 33 or 34, he could earn himself a lot of extra money.

I do not expect this to be how things go, but it's a possibility.

Matthews and Aho are such a different level of player, and so unlikely to move, it's almost not worth considering. If either of those guys are dealt, it would be an extremely unique trade and one that has little bearing on Debrincat.

it bears A LOT

if I’m a GM im saving my available space fitting in one of thrm before I invest in something else.

 

[Fatass]

He is also 25 years old - turning 26 in December. He has 55 points in 66 games but is -23 and his shooting percentage is way down.

Any more facts you feel should be listed?

Are the other Sens this deep into the minus stat?

 

[Hale The Villain]

I think Cat to Detroit makes more sense as a UFA if he gets there

They aren’t in a position to be trading their 1st rounder imo, they should be keeping those to add more young talent

They are in one of the best positions in the league to trade a 1st rounder. They have two in 2023 and in 2024 as well.

Yzerman will undoubtedly want to add talent to the roster this off-season. Hard to see a better fit than a 25 year old top line winger from Michigan.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

it bears A LOT

if I’m a GM im saving my available space fitting in one of thrm before I invest in something else.

You can exceed the cap during the offseason, if one of those guys is available it is something you make happen. You dont just wait around for it.

Are the other Sens this deep into the minus stat?

Nope, mostly just his line:

DBC (-23) - Pinto (-18) - Batherson (-32)

About half our team is between +6 and -4...about 1/4 is between -7 to -13. And then there is the 2nd line.

Cat hasn't been bad defensively, but the line has struggled. Pinto is too inexperienced for 2C and Batherson has struggled significantly.

 

[Fatass]

You can exceed the cap during the offseason, if one of those guys is available it is something you make happen. You dont just wait around for it.

Nope, mostly just his line:

DBC (-23) - Pinto (-18) - Batherson (-32)

Cat hasn't been bad defensively, but the line has struggled. Pinto is too inexperienced for 2C and Batherson has struggled significantly.

The Sens have a young and up and coming team. If they can keep Debrincat (at a good number) they should. What’s the best number (per year cap cost) for the club to be able to keep their other young stars? 8x8?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

The Sens have a young and up and coming team. If they can keep Debrincat (at a good number) they should. What’s the best number (per year cap cost) for the club to be able to keep their other young stars? 8x8?

8x8 is the max, I think. I'd be very happy to keep Debrincat... I just don't think we can afford to pay what his body of work justifies.

 

[KevinRedkey]

I've been saying 8.200 since before he got traded.
I still think he gets around that with Ottawa

 

[WingsToPick4th]

Wings would be all over this. They have 4 1st rounders in the next 2 drafts and Yzerman said hes looking to add young core pieces with elite skill - Debrincat fits the mould and we have the space to lock him in long term.

Debrincat - Larkin - Raymond would be sick.

Det Trades: 2023 NYI 1st Round pick (about 15-20 OA) + Alex Nedjelkovic + 2023 2nd (STL)/Fabbri for Debrincats rights.

Who says no? If they cant sign him they need to get a decent return.