Value of: extended Debrincat

[jbeck5]

Sens would be better off trading him and using that money & return on another top four RD.

Chabot -------
Chychrun Zub
Sanderson Hamonic/Holden

Sanderson on the third pair next year makes no sense.

If Ottawa was not going to sign him long, what teams can even afford him?

Teams with more cap space than Ottawa next year?

 

[jbeck5]

You are almost certainly right on both counts, but I'd say there is a slight possibility for him signing a shorter term deal.

His QO, of course, is an option, and there is some potential value - although a lot of risk - to signing a 2 or 3 year deal that allows him to re-enter UFA with a higher cap (while still being squarely in his prime). Then, he can sign a 7/8y year deal that takes him til his late 30s, rather than early/mid. If he drops off at say, 33 or 34, he could earn himself a lot of extra money.

I do not expect this to be how things go, but it's a possibility.

Matthews and Aho are such a different level of player, and so unlikely to move, it's almost not worth considering. If either of those guys are dealt, it would be an extremely unique trade and one that has little bearing on Debrincat.

It would in the sense of if teams are trying for 50 goal scorer Matthews but lose out, they might go hard for 40 goal scorer debrincat as consolation.

When a big fish goes, the runner up big fish becomes that much more valuable if there's a market for goal scorers.

 

[Djp]

Sanderson on the third pair next year makes no sense.


Teams with more cap space than Ottawa next year?

He’s not signing in chicsgo or anshrim.
Arizona is saving its max space for mathews
buffalo isn’t touching him. They are loaded with young F coming up.
maybe Detroit can fit him in

most teams don’t have $8M in space which means it needs to be more cap neutral. he’s not a play driver. I feel you can draft just as good of a winger in the teens as he would be but you have cost control.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

He’s not signing in chicsgo or anshrim.
Arizona is saving its max space for mathews
buffalo isn’t touching him. They are loaded with young F coming up.
maybe Detroit can fit him in

most teams don’t have $8M in space which means it needs to be more cap neutral. he’s not a play driver. I feel you can draft just as good of a winger in the teens as he would be but you have cost control.

Ottawa would be looking at roster players in the return and would take cap back, so your main point is moot.

 

[BondraTime]

Extended he’d probably get close to what Fiala got, probably a bit less.

With only his QO, he’d get a late 1st and a B prospect, give or take.

Won’t be returning a 7th + high 2nd in value, that’s for sure.

Unfortunately for Ottawa, they want players who can play now, and teams trading for DBC, will be offering future based deals.

Maybe they get lucky and find someone who wants a change of scenery trade, but I don’t think the Sens as a whole are going to be happy with what’s returned.

 

[Captain Mountain]

He’s not signing in chicsgo or anshrim.
Arizona is saving its max space for mathews
buffalo isn’t touching him. They are loaded with young F coming up.
maybe Detroit can fit him in

most teams don’t have $8M in space which means it needs to be more cap neutral. he’s not a play driver. I feel you can draft just as good of a winger in the teens as he would be but you have cost control.

Why would he not sign in Anaheim? They're further along than Chicago. Playing SoCal with Terry, Zegras and McTavish sounds pretty good to me. And Arizona isn't saving space, they're keeping expenses down.

I'm also not sure what you mean play driver, prior to this season he's generally been an excellent play driver.

Ottawa can also take salary back, just not cap dumps.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

He is also 25 years old - turning 26 in December. He has 55 points in 66 games but is -23 and his shooting percentage is way down.

Any more facts you feel should be listed?

AD qualifying offer is $9M, or he becomes a UFA. And he can file for arbitration for a 1 year deal, and then become a UFA. Which is why he was moved by the Hawks.

The assumption that the Sens can sign him to a "bargain" deal, and then get full value for him is completely misleading.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Doesn't really matter. Debrincat can bang on having a better season next year instead of taking a LT deal after his worst season in 3-4 years.

He takes 9M$ that brings him to UFA, and if his production (likelly) improves, he gets more than 8x8 nxt year.

Agree with this. Also, the cap is going to go up signficantly when the lockdown escrow equalization is done (which should be shortly). AD would be crazy to sign a LT deal this off-season.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Sanderson on the third pair next year makes no sense.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Sanderson playing 3rd pair next year. Tampa did it for years with Sergachev and he still averaged over 20 minutes a night

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

AD qualifying offer is $9M, or he becomes a UFA. And he can file for arbitration for a 1 year deal, and then become a UFA. Which is why he was moved by the Hawks.

The assumption that the Sens can sign him to a "bargain" deal, and then get full value for him is completely misleading.

No one has assumed this.

You are the one making the assumption: that there is no reality in which Debrincat does not sign an extension this summer. And hey, you are free to make that assumption, but maybe you're in the wrong thread????

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

No one has assumed this.

You are the one making the assumption: that there is no reality in which Debrincat does not sign an extension this summer. And hey, you are free to make that assumption, but maybe you're in the wrong thread????

Maybe you could make a triple negative to really confuse everyone? In the OP didn't you make an assumption on AD signing a deal for 7.5 over multiple timelines?

Is it impossible (aka - no reality) that AD signs a short-term deal for significantly less than his QO? I guess it's not impossible, but is that likely? I'm trying to think of an example of that and can't come up with one.

Just IMO - but the reasons around AD's contract situation that you're trying to ignore are the reasons why the Sens were able to trade for AD at a discount to his perceived market value by people on this site (aka - "Sens fleeced the Hawks" threads).

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Maybe you could make a triple negative to really confuse everyone? In the OP didn't you make an assumption on AD signing a deal for 7.5 over multiple timelines?

Is it impossible (aka - no reality) that AD signs a short-term deal for significantly less than his QO? I guess it's not impossible, but is that likely? I'm trying to think of an example of that and can't come up with one.

Just IMO - but the reasons around AD's contract situation that you're trying to ignore are the reasons why the Sens were able to trade for AD at a discount to his perceived market value by people on this site (aka - "Sens fleeced the Hawks" threads).

Ok, my range could have had more parameters. I figured people would recognize that no, he isn't going to sign a 1-year deal for $7.5m, without needing to litigate around it.

I'm not ignoring anything. You are ignoring 99% of the prompt to make some pedantic point that no one disagrees with. I'm going to venture to say that any further response here is probably a waste of time.

 

[dirtydanglez]

he didn't live up to the preseason sens fan hype but still had decent season.

 

[Big Muddy]

Man, it's not a long post. Read the post. You really think Debrincat will refuse to sign a deal besides his QO (1yr $9m) or a longterm deal at/above that salary?

Do you know what the word "extended" means? Players sign below their QO. It's not some foreign concept that should require this back and forth.

Yes, it is a possibility that he takes a QO to UFA. Everyone knows that. This is clearly about a situation where he doesn't do that.

It's HF. If there's a trade from another team, some people are just going give the most negative, doom & gloom response. The Chicken Little syndrome is popular here.

 

[PensandCaps]

He’s barely worth qualifying. I bet he still holds some value but not much.

What are you talking about? near PPG 40 goal scorers have ton of value.

 

[Big Muddy]

I see the Sens throwing a lot of money to keep him.

That will depend on what the Cap ceiling is next year. If it's $83.5 m, the Senators don't have a lot of room to play with.

I would also think they'd think hard about giving him more money than Brady T. and Stutzle.

If Debrincat takes his $9 m QO and the cap stays at $83.5 m, then Ottawa will have some cap constraints and the roster will be more lean next year. After next year, things will open up for them.

That's why there's a decent chance that if Debrincat doesn't sign a long term deal, they'll try to move him and try to get a 1st round pick back (or other assets).

 

[dekelikekocur]

Wings would be all over this. They have 4 1st rounders in the next 2 drafts and Yzerman said hes looking to add young core pieces with elite skill - Debrincat fits the mould and we have the space to lock him in long term.

Debrincat - Larkin - Raymond would be sick.

Det Trades: 2023 NYI 1st Round pick (about 15-20 OA) + Alex Nedjelkovic + 2023 2nd (STL)/Fabbri for Debrincats rights.

Who says no? If they cant sign him they need to get a decent return.

Detroit says no. Not saying Cat can't get that value but he's not of that value to Detroit. Maybe and that's a BIG maybe, if he came on a 7 or 8 year deal for 7ish Stevie would consider trading that package but for his RFA rights with a QO of 9m and 1 yr till UFA? You're out to lunch.

 

[McVespa99]

He is also 25 years old - turning 26 in December. He has 55 points in 66 games but is -23 and his shooting percentage is way down.

Any more facts you feel should be listed?

That is an important fact because it basically means his next salary starts with a 9. At that rate he has very little value IMO

 

[TotalHomer]

Debrincat should just take his QO and bet on himself like these kids nowadays do. Clearly a down year for him to sign a long term deal.

 

[lomiller1]

That is an important fact because it basically means his next salary starts with a 9. At that rate he has very little value IMO

Not only does his salary next year start with a 9, his salary the year after starts with whatever he can get as a UFA. If we don't think he's worth his $9 million QA then signing him to an RDA deal this year would cost more than not qualifying him and just signing him to a UFA deal this year.

Players getting paid their full fair UFA rates have little trade value IMO, and Debrincat isn't going to be accepting less than his full open market UFA value so I just don't see a lot of trade value there. Value to the team is a different question, the Sens may well be willing to pay him an 8.5AAV to get him under contract but I don't see anyone else giving up premium assets for him if he's earning that much.

If his numbers improve down the road than maybe Ottawa gets something good for him, but if they don't Ottawa may find themselves needing to retain salary or give away picks just to get teams to take the salary.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

That is an important fact because it basically means his next salary starts with a 9. At that rate he has very little value IMO

No, it absolutely doesn’t mean that lol.

Will Timo Meier’s next contract start with a 10? No. No shit it won’t.

The only way Debrincat next contract starts with a 9 is if he refuses to sign anything but a 1yr deal. Your logic is nowhere near as airtight as you think it is.

Not only does his salary next year start with a 9, his salary the year after starts with whatever he can get as a UFA. If we don't think he's worth his $9 million QA then signing him to an RDA deal this year would cost more than not qualifying him and just signing him to a UFA deal this year.

Players getting paid their full fair UFA rates have little trade value IMO, and Debrincat isn't going to be accepting less than his full open market UFA value so I just don't see a lot of trade value there. Value to the team is a different question, the Sens may well be willing to pay him an 8.5AAV to get him under contract but I don't see anyone else giving up premium assets for him if he's earning that much.

If his numbers improve down the road than maybe Ottawa gets something good for him, but if they don't Ottawa may find themselves needing to retain salary or give away picks just to get teams to take the salary.

Lol, he’s not under contract next year. There is no chance Ottawa needs to retain or give assets away, in fact retaining on Debrincat would have literally zero effect.

Another person making claims that are clearly based on not understanding simple facts around the situation.

 

[lomiller1]

Lol, he’s not under contract next year. There is no chance Ottawa needs to retain or give assets away, in fact retaining on Debrincat would have literally zero effect.

Another person making claims that are clearly based on not understanding simple facts around the situation.

If he's not under contract he's got zero trade value. If the Sens sign him he starts off at a small overpay and has slightly negative trade value. The only way the Sens get anything meaningful for him is if they re-sign him and his numbers pick up significantly.

 

[67 others]

Why would he not sign in Anaheim? They're further along than Chicago. Playing SoCal with Terry, Zegras and McTavish sounds pretty good to me. And Arizona isn't saving space, they're keeping expenses down.

I'm also not sure what you mean play driver, prior to this season he's generally been an excellent play driver.

Ottawa can also take salary back, just not cap dumps.

Prior to this season, we have not seen what he was capable of when not lined up with Patrick Kane.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

If he's not under contract he's got zero trade value. If the Sens sign him he starts off at a small overpay and has slightly negative trade value. The only way the Sens get anything meaningful for him is if they re-sign him and his numbers pick up significantly.

Lol you clearly do not understand some very basic premises. Have a great day

 

[ClydeLee]

Prior to this season, we have not seen what he was capable of when not lined up with Patrick Kane.

Except what Blackhawks fans have been telling you all he hardly played with Kane in his first 3 seasons. He wasnt in his top 5 of most frequent linemates then. Where he was good play driver, shooter, and playmaker. Not just some 1 dimensional goal scorer.

But that's what some wanted to think.