OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 8

[JD1]

Dumb analysis. Dozens of papers have found the opposite and very definitively. AS an aside - most covid = more mutations including ones that may lead to vaccines being less effective. This is why letting COVID run wild (e.g. not locking down and letting the virus mutate more) is STUPID STUPID STUPID. Of course it is only now that some are realizing the risk of this when it is too late.

Ok so I'll call bullshit on this

Show me dozens of papers. Step up. You said dozens.

I don't think that this particular person is advocating running wild, he's advocating locking down what's vulnerable and freeing up what isn't.

 

[Sens]

So I work at the restaurant till 10PM Most days

is the government going to f*** over restaurants on takeout and delivery by closing the province at 8pm

 

[DrEasy]

That's a good question

Numbers have gone up a lot. Is that because

1. People are ignoring the lockdown
2. The lockdown isn't particularly effective

Probably a bit of both.

I don't think that they want to do what needs to be done. For example how about we shut down Jeff Bezos and allow small businesses to be open for a couple of months. See how that goes.

I don't know what the answer is but I've come to the conclusion that the government doesn't either.

Protect the vulnerable by way of lockdown. Vaccinate as quickly as possible. Let everything else get on with life, masks and distancing and away you go

What they've done makes absolutely zero sense. I needed something for my car last weekend. Canadian Tire was closed. CAPS was open. How does that make sense?

But what would the numbers be without the lockdown? Probably much worse, no?

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

But what would the numbers be without the lockdown? Probably much worse, no?

You would have to think without a doubt.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

So I work at the restaurant till 10PM Most days

is the government going to f*** over restaurants on takeout and delivery by closing the province at 8pm

Why are you worried? Won't you just get some kind of "slice" from CERB?

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Ok so I'll call bullshit on this

Show me dozens of papers. Step up. You said dozens.

I don't think that this particular person is advocating running wild, he's advocating locking down what's vulnerable and freeing up what isn't.

That may be what he's recommending, but his analysis can still be incorrect. I'd like to see his research paper, because at the superficial level reported in that story there are at least a couple items that seem quite dubious.

 

[Sens]

Why are you worried? Won't you just get some kind of "slice" from CERB?

I’ll be fine for sure but this might put my place of employment under and I have such a sweet gig going

 

[JD1]

That may be what he's recommending, but his analysis can still be incorrect. I'd like to see his research paper, because at the superficial level reported in that story there are at least a couple items that seem quite dubious.

That was an interview...but ya I'd like to see that research too. I'd like to see a lot of the research and modeling that has got us to where we are

We can't do contact tracing fast enough. Public health officials cried about wave 2. But thru all their crying they seem to have not prepared themselves for wave 2

We don't have rapid testing. We're piloting what other countries have had in place for a long time

There's f*** all enforcement of quarantines for people traveling. Put them in a hotel for 2 weeks

And now we've got public officials all over the place telling the minions to stay home and don't travel while they are jet setting south for vacations. It's a really bad look.

And we've got a death grip globally on reporting case counts.

 

[Micklebot]

That may be what he's recommending, but his analysis can still be incorrect. I'd like to see his research paper, because at the superficial level reported in that story there are at least a couple items that seem quite dubious.

That's the problem with writing an article on a pre-print...

 

[Sens]

The Halton police chief just travelled to the USA
And now they are thinking of curfew

the optics are just going to make the majority angry

 

[Icelevel]

So I work at the restaurant till 10PM Most days

is the government going to f*** over restaurants on takeout and delivery by closing the province at 8pm

Does the restaurant promote more pandemic deaths and illness (ie support the meat and dairy industry)? Or has it made an effort to transition to pandemic preventative business?

 

[Fandlauer]

Does the restaurant promote more pandemic deaths and illness (ie support the meat and dairy industry)? Or has it made an effort to transition to pandemic preventative business?

They are no longer serving bat soup.

 

[Icelevel]

They are no longer serving bat soup.

That’s a great start

 

[Xspyrit]

I'm sorry but I'll call bull shit on this.

This virus isn't solely spreading because people go to "secret" parties. If you believe that your naive.

Look... i work from home. I go to the store, I wear my mask. Im not likely to get it on account of my behavior, if i get it, it's because of my kids. This virus is spreading because it spreads easily

We as humanity cannot simply hide in our homes until this goes away. That needs to be politically accepted as factually true. From the get go the approach has been run and hide. It ain't working

But where did I say "solely"? To understand someone's message you have to be sure to read correctly. The question is how do you think the virus spreads? By magic? It's 100% of the time because someone has been in close contact with a contaminated person, or in the same confined space for an extended period of time. These are the transmission modes :

• Contact transmission is infection spread through direct contact with an infectious person (e.g., touching during a handshake) or with an article or surface that has become contaminated. The latter is sometimes referred to as “fomite transmission.”
• Droplet transmission is infection spread through exposure to virus-containing respiratory droplets (i.e., larger and smaller droplets and particles) exhaled by an infectious person. Transmission is most likely to occur when someone is close to the infectious person, generally within about 6 feet.
• Airborne transmission is infection spread through exposure to those virus-containing respiratory droplets comprised of smaller droplets and particles that can remain suspended in the air over long distances (usually greater than 6 feet) and time (typically hours).

Nobody is saying stay in your home forever. I haven't. I go to the dog park every second day, I walk in my neighborhood every other day. My "shopping habits" haven't changed at all. We were already "online shoppers", it hasn't changed. I go to Costco every month, my wife do other groceries maybe 2-3 times a month. I go to the post office every week, sometimes twice.

The only things that have changed is we don't go inside restaurants but get delivered instead because dining rooms are closed. I also can't play in my hockey leagues and we don't visit family/friends as much but speak regularly with them on video/phone. If we do activites with them it's outside, like we have went sliding a few times already or went apple picking and stuff like that. My sister and my niece go skiing several times a week. I'll have to teach all my family if we want to join, maybe next year.

The virus doesn't stop me from flipping a house, do forex/crypto trading or e-commerce. I'm lucky in that sense but had to adjust at first, lost a revenue stream to create a new one. But mostly I have been taking it easy because I can afford it. The virus changed a lot of things but doesn't change everything for everybody. It postponed my plans and it sucks but whatever, I'll be ready to go when the timing is good.

Let's be honest, it mainly affect people who like to party (bars, clubs, restaurants, house parties, BBQ) or need gatherings for the socialization needs. We don't go to bars, just restaurants, that's what we miss. Also haven't made our BBQs with all family at home. Also miss NHL hockey, would like to go see games as well. Outside of gatherings not possible, life goes on.

Just wearing a mask, physical distancing as much as possible, washing your heads, don't touch your face except at home and don't stay around people for an extended period of time should prevent anybody from getting it. In my house, if we get it, it would be most likely from our kids (school/daycare). We use a private home daycare where the lady is very cautious as she has diabetes.

So in the end, where does people get the virus? Hospitals (can't close that), from kids/school (can't close that very long, the whole society and a very big portion of the working force depends on that), work and public transportation. These are essential stuff but gatherings, even if we like them, are not essential. Church meetings, concerts, restaurant dinings, house parties, sport events, etc are unfortunately not possible at the moment. Events like that are all potential relatively big outbreaks. Many have adjusted and are doing stuff online (musicians/humorists, churches, etc) until it's safe to gather again. It absolutely sucks but there's also no other alternatives. Health systems just can't afford bigger outbreaks (already at the rupture point)

But anyway, about the curfew, that's exactly how they (and yes they are partially incompetent at times) explained it, to stop the "secret gatherings" at night. Of course, maybe there's a big conspirancy but personally I don't believe it. That's for here in Quebec though, I don't know exactly what is going in Ontario, situation could be different.

Oh and if you don't believe in "secret gatherings", my father lives in Europe and he told me he went to 6-7 biker events in 2020, all in relatively small spaces with no masking, sometimes up to ~125 persons. He's usually very smart, retired at 49 y/o and lives in the sun all year but his mother, my sister and I told him he has been playing with fire and not very considerate for us as we have already lost several closed ones. There's tons of examples like this on the internet.

Finally, if you think spreading through a private gathering is not possible, you're pretty naive. It's very likely that somebody visiting a place where there is one or several infected individuals will bring it home. Houses and appartments are usually not super huge where you can maintain 6+ feets in distance and people are not likely to wear mask with people they "trust". That's actualy exactly how one of my wife's younger brother got the virus. Thankfully he didn't transmit it to his dad, who would have most likely died from it.

But what would the numbers be without the lockdown? Probably much worse, no?

Everyone should have known that answer since the beginning. But instead of just "lockdowns", I would prefer to refer to "gatherings lockdowns" because that's where a virus would spread the most.

Just by the definitions you can figure out everything

What is an outbreak?

An outbreak is a sudden rise in the number of cases of a disease. An outbreak may occur in a community or geographical area, or may affect several countries. It may last for a few days or weeks, or even for several years.

Some outbreaks are expected each year, such as influenza. Sometimes a single case of an infectious disease may be considered an outbreak. This may be true if the disease is rare (e.g., foodborne botulism) or has serious public health implications (e.g., bioterrorism agent such as anthrax).

What is an epidemic?

An epidemic occurs when an infectious disease spreads rapidly to many people. In 2003, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic took the lives of nearly 800 people worldwide.

What are pandemics?

A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. It differs from an outbreak or epidemic because it:

• affects a wider geographical area, often worldwide.
• infects a greater number of people than an epidemic.
• is often caused by a new virus or a strain of virus that has not circulated among people for a long time. Humans usually have little to no immunity against it. The virus spreads quickly from person-to-person worldwide.
• causes much higher numbers of deaths than epidemics.
• often creates social disruption, economic loss, and general hardship.

I'm not 100% sure but I think this stuff was written before covid. It's pretty much like in movies, if you don't do everything you can to stop a virus spread, you're in big trouble. You think covid has been really bad worldwide? I think it's obvious that it could have been much much worse. Remember, one very important thing is to not destroy countries' health systems.

 

[Stylizer1]

what is your point. this has been known since day 1.

The issue remains the same, we have a virus that is killing people. Yes, a very specific subset. But 1) all of us will get to that age group one day 2) all of us know someone in that age group. We are not hatched, we are born. As a minimum, we have parents in that age group..Possibly grandparents..If you have no parents or Grandparents in that age group. Odds are good, you are in it.

So what do we do? The roughly 80% of us not in that age group/high risk group (remember you have to add those with health issues) can say f'it and return to normal. It will simply mean that the vulnerable group will be exposed to higher and higher risks and their death numbers will climb..And math shows us that it will indeed climb to the roughly 3% of all of those infected, which among the vulnerable is closer to 15%...Or we can continue to do what we are now doing and keep the number at 0.3% of all those infected. Essentially 1/10, or we save 9 out of every 10 possible deaths. Meaning, you, or your parents, or your grandparents are saved.

Yes, we have torched the economy for it, but we can live with the feeling of: NO blood on our hands . And the safe feeling of: when we are in that age group, younger people will sacrifice for us.

I want to live in comfort knowing that when I am 85, people are perfectly wiling to support me as I go through health care and pensions, etc. So I sacrifice now so that today's 85 year old is okay.

What those numbers show is that people 60+ should be the ones getting the vaccine first. young people, 60 and under, should not be the priority

 

[DaveMatthew]

Ontario considering implementing curfew similar to Quebec’s, sources say

Typical process for Ontario has been to leak upcoming restriction to press, then announce it the next week. So expect a 8pm-5am curfew.

I mean, why not? In a pandemic where the primary safeguard is social distancing, let’s take essential services and limit the amount of hours people have access to them.

So instead of 1000 people going to the grocery store over the course of six hours, let’s jam them in there for two. Can’t wait for that 5:30-7:30pm rush when everyone is done work! Great way to protect our “heroic” frontline employees.

I give Ford kudos though. He’s managed to convince people that their neighbor is sneaking around to other households at 8pm, and that’s the real problem.

Meanwhile, Amazon and Walmart warehouses are packed, the construction industry continues to hum, there’s no paid sick leave mandate for essential workers, LTC homes are still a disaster almost a year in, and we’re already botching vaccine distribution. Oh, and thousands of people are flying in and out of the country every day.

But please, make sure to watch out for that neighbor taking a walk at 9pm. Stay alert!

 

[Stylizer1]

seriously why not have store open 24 hours? Walmart used to do it for Christmas. During lockdowns this should be the case

 

[Stylizer1]

Ontario considering implementing curfew similar to Quebec’s, sources say

Typical process for Ontario has been to leak upcoming restriction to press, then announce it the next week. So expect a 8pm-5am curfew.

I mean, why not? In a pandemic where the primary safeguard is social distancing, let’s take essential services and limit the amount of hours people have access to them.

So instead of 1000 people going to the grocery store over the course of six hours, let’s jam them in there for two. Can’t wait for that 5:30-7:30pm rush when everyone is done work! Great way to protect our “heroic” frontline employees.

I give Ford kudos though. He’s managed to convince people that their neighbor is sneaking around to other households at 8pm, and that’s the real problem.

Meanwhile, Amazon and Walmart warehouses are packed, the construction industry continues to hum, there’s no paid sick leave mandate for essential workers, LTC homes are still a disaster almost a year in, and we’re already botching vaccine distribution. Oh, and thousands of people are flying in and out of the country every day.

But please, make sure to watch out for that neighbor taking a walk at 9pm. Stay alert!

Your neighbour is as evil as a sleeper cell. lol

 

[Beech]

Do you think the elderly feel protected by their government right now?

They have done a piss poor job protecting the most vulnerable.

I disagree. Canada has one of the lowest death rates of the G20 nations. We will by the time this ends (or subsides) in late September of 2021 be at less than 25,000 deaths.

The UK between 90,000 and 100,000 deaths. 3-4 times us and their population is only 1.8 times ours
France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands (lying about their numbers), Switzerland (lying about their numbers), Belgium, Austria, and another 2-3 G20 are above us in terms of population percentage.
The USA, probably in the 600,000-700,000 range (and they are lying). That is 20 times us and even wit their undocumented residence are only 9 times us.

And other than confusion as to what is happening in Australia and New Zealand, plus the crazy nature of Nordic nations, we are tops.

Canada losses ~ 700,000 elderly and those with health issues a year. This will add 25,000 for a year and a half and about 18,000 for a year. That is 4%. Tragic, but compare that to the USA which will add 10% plus, the UK which will be at 12%, Belgium at 10%. Even Germany is on its way to 10%.

Both provincial and Federal governments have done a good job..and to be fair, so have municipal governments. Other than finding myself in a place like Monaco, I am very happy to be here.

 

[Beech]

What those numbers show is that people 60+ should be the ones getting the vaccine first. young people, 60 and under, should not be the priority

but younger than 60 can also infect those older than 60.
Keep in mind, there is concern about giving the vaccine to the vulnerable to begin with. it may be a wiser approach to vaccinate those around the vulnerable to create a clean environment for them. This may lessen the need to vaccinate the vulnerable.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

I disagree. Canada has one of the lowest death rates of the G20 nations. We will by the time this ends (or subsides) in late September of 2021 be at less than 25,000 deaths.

The UK between 90,000 and 100,000 deaths. 3-4 times us and their population is only 1.8 times ours
France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands (lying about their numbers), Switzerland (lying about their numbers), Belgium, Austria, and another 2-3 G20 are above us in terms of population percentage.
The USA, probably in the 600,000-700,000 range (and they are lying). That is 20 times us and even wit their undocumented residence are only 9 times us.

And other than confusion as to what is happening in Australia and New Zealand, plus the crazy nature of Nordic nations, we are tops.

Canada losses ~ 700,000 elderly and those with health issues a year. This will add 25,000 for a year and a half and about 18,000 for a year. That is 4%. Tragic, but compare that to the USA which will add 10% plus, the UK which will be at 12%, Belgium at 10%. Even Germany is on its way to 10%.

Both provincial and Federal governments have done a good job..and to be fair, so have municipal governments. Other than finding myself in a place like Monaco, I am very happy to be here.

This post is a breath of fresh air. I’ve been quite troubled by 99% of my family thinking everyone and everything are idiots, and the government has failed us all.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I disagree. Canada has one of the lowest death rates of the G20 nations. We will by the time this ends (or subsides) in late September of 2021 be at less than 25,000 deaths.

The UK between 90,000 and 100,000 deaths. 3-4 times us and their population is only 1.8 times ours
France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands (lying about their numbers), Switzerland (lying about their numbers), Belgium, Austria, and another 2-3 G20 are above us in terms of population percentage.
The USA, probably in the 600,000-700,000 range (and they are lying). That is 20 times us and even wit their undocumented residence are only 9 times us.

And other than confusion as to what is happening in Australia and New Zealand, plus the crazy nature of Nordic nations, we are tops.

Canada losses ~ 700,000 elderly and those with health issues a year. This will add 25,000 for a year and a half and about 18,000 for a year. That is 4%. Tragic, but compare that to the USA which will add 10% plus, the UK which will be at 12%, Belgium at 10%. Even Germany is on its way to 10%.

Both provincial and Federal governments have done a good job..and to be fair, so have municipal governments. Other than finding myself in a place like Monaco, I am very happy to be here.

What is the population percentage over 60 for the countries you've listed compared to Canada?

Population percentage with people with co morbidities?

Probably need some context to have a fair comparison

 

[pzeeman]

So instead of 1000 people going to the grocery store over the course of six hours, let’s jam them in there for two. Can’t wait for that 5:30-7:30pm rush when everyone is done work! Great way to protect our “heroic” frontline employees.

That’s not how the curfew is working in Quebec. My local Loblaws/Provigo opens at 9 and closes at 7:30. Before the curfew it closed at 9. So we’re jamming an hour and a half of low traffic shopping into the preceding 10.5 hours. It will change some people’s daily schedules and take away some late night convenience, but let’s not pretend we’re taking away 8 shopping hours here.

 

[The Lewler]

No work from home mandate , no paid sick days , but curfew.

Sounds right .

Workplaces are driving this spread followed by private gatherings .

Tackling the latter and not the former is typical political maneuvering .

 

[DaveMatthew]

That’s not how the curfew is working in Quebec. My local Loblaws/Provigo opens at 9 and closes at 7:30. Before the curfew it closed at 9. So we’re jamming an hour and a half of low traffic shopping into the preceding 10.5 hours. It will change some people’s daily schedules and take away some late night convenience, but let’s not pretend we’re taking away 8 shopping hours here.

My superstore, in Westboro, currently closes at 11pm. So if it starts closing at 7:30, you’re taking 3.5 hours away.

Most people still work, meaning their shopping hours start at ~4pm. With a curfew, instead of having 7 hours, you’d have 3.5.

So yeah, you’d be basically reducing it in half. But the same amount of people would still be going to the store.