OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 8

[Peptic Balcers]

ya for sure if the supply line Is good then this makes sense. I don't have enough information about the supply line to know. Hopefully though they don't miss the 21 day window for the next shot then its a different story

considering they wanted to keep the 2nd dose at first and then changed the tactic. To me it would imply that they now have information that makes them confident it will be coming it

 

[Micklebot]

It makes sense to fill as many arms as possible now. If you can trust the supply line, it’s better to protect more people now. There is some immunity after 2 weeks (still requires 2nd dose for peak efficacy). So since it’s being administered to people most likely to die, or to be caring for someone with covid, it makes sense to give as many people the 1st dose as possible.

(so I don’t think its government optics driven)

Reserving 2nd doses makes sense when you have supply chain uncertainty, as you become more sure the next shipment will come you start to reserve less in favour of efficieency. I wouldn't want to get to the point of just on time shipments, but you can certainly start injecting before the 2nd dose arrives.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Ford said the modelling that will be released next week will be a wakeup call

 

[Sens]

Leading by example

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Ford said the modelling that will be released next week will be a wakeup call

Starting to get the feeling more and more people are tuning out the modelling.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Starting to get the feeling more and more people are tuning out the modelling.

I have.

 

[Sweatred]

Reserving 2nd doses makes sense when you have supply chain uncertainty, as you become more sure the next shipment will come you start to reserve less in favour of efficieency. I wouldn't want to get to the point of just on time shipments, but you can certainly start injecting before the 2nd dose arrives.

I don’t think they have testing that supports the 25 day as an essential period of time? For all we know that same immunity, lesser, or even greater may form with different dates. It’s an unknown, but there is no reason to think you’ve
Wasted the first shot if you
end up giving someone the second dose days or weeks late. It’s sloppy administration and rollout, but I bet an enormous percentage of people will not have both injections 25 days apart for a million reasons.

 

[Stylizer1]

Canada will get another batch soon and you all will have wasted your time.

 

[Micklebot]

I don’t think they have testing that supports the 25 day as an essential period of time? For all we know that same immunity, lesser, or even greater may form with different dates. It’s an unknown, but there is no reason to think you’ve
Wasted the first shot if you
end up giving someone the second dose days or weeks late. It’s sloppy administration and rollout, but I bet an enormous percentage of people will not have both injections 25 days apart for a million reasons.

They recommend that timeline because they have empirical data that supports it works. When 21 to 28 days was recommended by the WHO strategic advisory group of experts on immunization, they acknowledged that for some countries in exceptional circumstances a delay the 2nd dose of a couple weeks to maximize the benefit of the first dose could be better but warned that there isnt much data to warrant that recommendation.

It could work out fine, but do you really want to leave it to chance unless you really have to?

 

[Sweatred]

They recommend that timeline because they have empirical data that supports it works. When 21 to 28 days was recommended by the WHO strategic advisory group of experts on immunization, they acknowledged that for some countries in exceptional circumstances a delay the 2nd dose of a couple weeks to maximize the benefit of the first dose could be better but warned that there isnt much data to warrant that recommendation.

It could work out fine, but do you really want to leave it to chance unless you really have to?

There is also value in pumping 50% + immunity in as many arms as fast as possible and dealing with the odd supply chain problem. I’m not pretending to be an expert - just commenting that the 25 day recommendation is the only tested date and missing it doesn’t necessarily negate protection.

 

[Beech]

Canada will get another batch soon and you all will have wasted your time.

batch!!! There are 37.8 million of us. Take away those younger than 10. Take away the 5-10% of society that probably should not get it and we are talking about 30 million people.

If two shots that is 60 million doses. Even a combination of the one shot vaccine and the two shot one, will still mean between 30 and 60 million. What sizes are most batches? 2-3 million. We still need 10-20 of them. And even 2-3 million, it must take forever to produce. And we are fighting 220 other nations for it.

this is going well, isn't it?

 

[JD1]

Starting to get the feeling more and more people are tuning out the modelling.

With good reason. Another shining example of modelling accuracy here

National Post: Randall Denley: Doug Ford tells Ontario he's scared, then refuses to say what's scaring him.
Randall Denley: Doug Ford tells Ontario he's scared, then refuses to say what's scaring him | National Post

 

[The Lewler]

batch!!! There are 37.8 million of us. Take away those younger than 10. Take away the 5-10% of society that probably should not get it and we are talking about 30 million people.

If two shots that is 60 million doses. Even a combination of the one shot vaccine and the two shot one, will still mean between 30 and 60 million. What sizes are most batches? 2-3 million. We still need 10-20 of them. And even 2-3 million, it must take forever to produce. And we are fighting 220 other nations for it.

this is going well, isn't it?

There's an actual argument to be made here for governments to build manufacturing capacity for these vaccines as fast as possible, at pretty much whatever the cost.

The lack of strategic vision and investment in this country is astonishing.

Seriously, name the last major strategic investment Canada made. I'll wait.

 

[JD1]

There's an actual argument to be made here for governments to build manufacturing capacity for these vaccines as fast as possible, at pretty much whatever the cost.

The lack of strategic vision and investment in this country is astonishing.

Seriously, name the last major strategic investment Canada made. I'll wait.

No worries. Trudeau says we'll be prepared for the next one

 

[Canadian Time]

This is what Ford wants you to believe. Ontario still has 50% of its total received vaccines in freezers.

That's not what's going on. Ontario can very easily do 100,000 vaccines a week with much more capacity to come. Trouble is we're only getting in 80,000 doses a week. You see the problem.

They've decided that they won't withhold the entire second dose as there will be more coming in, but that doesn't mean entirely depleting the supply and waiting for more. Beginning now, patients are die for their second dose, next week even more and even more the 3rd week. They have to manage the supply so that they have enough on hand to give the folks their second dose but go forward with some anticipating future deliveries. Tricky stuff.

There are not enough vaccines coming in the next few weeks, that's on Trudeau. Fortin said today that there will be 4 million doses of Pfizer and 2 million Moderna by the end of March. That's enough for 3 million vaccinated people in Canada by the end of March. Really? That's 8% of the Canadian population by the end of March. Israel has already vaccinated 20% of their population.

I'll wait patiently for my turn but this is abysmal. Whoever gave the advice to Trudeau and LeBlanc on Tuesday to go on the offence and blame the provinces should be fired. It was too obvious this would shift by the end of this week or next.

 

[JD1]

That's not what's going on. Ontario can very easily do 100,000 vaccines a week with much more capacity to come. Trouble is we're only getting in 80,000 doses a week. You see the problem.

They've decided that they won't withhold the entire second dose as there will be more coming in, but that doesn't mean entirely depleting the supply and waiting for more. Beginning now, patients are die for their second dose, next week even more and even more the 3rd week. They have to manage the supply so that they have enough on hand to give the folks their second dose but go forward with some anticipating future deliveries. Tricky stuff.

There are not enough vaccines coming in the next few weeks, that's on Trudeau. Fortin said today that there will be 4 million doses of Pfizer and 2 million Moderna by the end of March. That's enough for 3 million vaccinated people in Canada by the end of March. Really? That's 8% of the Canadian population by the end of March. Israel has already vaccinated 20% of their population.

I'll wait patiently for my turn but this is abysmal. Whoever gave the advice to Trudeau and LeBlanc on Tuesday to go on the offence and blame the provinces should be fired. It was too obvious this would shift by the end of this week or next.

The reaction to buying late was to buy way more and brag about it. It's a sideshow diversion

Our pace is only going to worsen in relative terms. Wait until April and look at the percentages of other western countries.

Over 65ers are flying to Florida and getting vaccinated. For free. They're chatering planes to get there.

 

[DrEasy]

Not to defend the current pace, but Canada is in the top 10 in terms of vaccines administered per 100 people, so maybe we suck, but then how bad do others suck then? We're roughly on par with Germany and Spain.

And usually I'm not one to defend our healthcare system.

The ones who have every right to be p'd off are the French. They're so far behind they don't show up on the Bloomberg rankings.

 

[Rand0m]

The vaccines have been approved for what now? Close to a month?

From the Bloomberg tracker, Canada is 10th in absolute number of vaccines administered as well as ratio per 100 citizens. Not the greatest but not as horrible as some are making it out to be, especially considering how recently these vaccines were approved. Although there was ample time before to figure it out, I'll go with the benefit of the doubt that we're barely a month in of a yearlong process, the 2 initially approved vaccines have their own storage and handling particularities and that we have a very large spread out country.

I'm not really sure that rushing to be done first is really that necessary either, the world won't magically re-open just because 1 country has 100% of their citizens vaccinated, it'll be at least 2 years until things start getting back to normal-ish. There also seems to be a lot of hesitancy about getting what many perceive as a rushed vaccine so giving people time to see that the vaccine seems safe and effective is not a bad thing. I'm not talking about antivaxxers either, simply people who aren't necessarily familiar with the science and the actual decade long development behind these. In a way, I can't fault people for not being in the biggest rush. It's really incredible that only 1 year ago, we were just starting to hear about this new virus located in 1 city in China and now a year later, 19 million very effective, ultra-modern vaccines have already been given.

If by September 2021 most don't have their shot, then I'll get my pitchfork and march to parliament hill.

 

[Stylizer1]

batch!!! There are 37.8 million of us. Take away those younger than 10. Take away the 5-10% of society that probably should not get it and we are talking about 30 million people.

If two shots that is 60 million doses. Even a combination of the one shot vaccine and the two shot one, will still mean between 30 and 60 million. What sizes are most batches? 2-3 million. We still need 10-20 of them. And even 2-3 million, it must take forever to produce. And we are fighting 220 other nations for it.

this is going well, isn't it?

Not sure they can produce the vaccines at the rate you want. Maybe you should take it up with the manufactures then.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

With good reason. Another shining example of modelling accuracy here

National Post: Randall Denley: Doug Ford tells Ontario he's scared, then refuses to say what's scaring him.
Randall Denley: Doug Ford tells Ontario he's scared, then refuses to say what's scaring him | National Post

 

[Sens]

The majority have tuned out to the modiling numbers

They’ve projected wrong every step of the way... nobody cares

 

[L'Aveuglette]

The majority have tuned out to the modiling numbers

They’ve projected wrong every step of the way... nobody cares

Does it even matter what the modeling numbers show? Ontario had almost 4300 new cases today and that is plenty scary enough, unless you're in total denial, which hey, nothing will bring you out of it.

 

[Sens]

Does it even matter what the modeling numbers show? Ontario had almost 4300 new cases today and that is plenty scary enough, unless you're in total denial, which hey, nothing will bring you out of it.

manufacturing, offices, construction, etc all open

Politicians to Police Chiefs all going on vacation

as I speak right now there is a party at a house a few doors down from me

 

[The Lewler]

The reaction to buying late was to buy way more and brag about it. It's a sideshow diversion

Our pace is only going to worsen in relative terms. Wait until April and look at the percentages of other western countries.

Over 65ers are flying to Florida and getting vaccinated. For free. They're chatering planes to get there.

this is true , as for the last paragraph , good .

If you are over 65 and have the means to fly to Florida and get vaccinated , go .

every snowbird who leaves and gets vaccinated is one less over 65 in line here .

 

[JD1]

Well, I'd say that trying to scare the crap out of society by quoting big numbers really isn't working.

Unfortunately we don't seem to have the manpower to analyze in near real time (within a couple of days) to figure out where people are getting covid to enable more targeted prevention actions