OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 8

[Micklebot]

It doesn't help that when contract tracing is done it is very easy to simply lie.

People could just install the covid exposure app but sadly less that 6 mil of the estimated 31 mil people with smart phones have done so.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

People could just install the covid exposure app but sadly less that 6 mil of the estimated 31 mil people with smart phones have done so.

Well why would you want the government to have your information, isn't it just a ploy for the government to have your phone??

Totally joking by the way, we had a bunch of moms from my mom group say they wouldn't get the app because they wanted their information protected. Well ladies, better get rid of your social media while your at it!

 

[Micklebot]

Well why would you want the government to have your information, isn't it just a ploy for the government to have your phone??

Totally joking by the way, we had a bunch of moms from my mom group say they wouldn't get the app because they wanted their information protected. Well ladies, better get rid of your social media while your at it!

But Muh privacy....

 

[R2010]

It doesn't help that when contract tracing is done it is very easy to simply lie.

We just haven't seen that in Atlantic Canada or the North. If people aren't willing to be honest then that says a lot about them with something this severe. One difference I think for where i'm originally from (NL) is that our Chief Medical Officer of Health has actual power via legislation versus the political decisions made by Government leaders elsewhere. If she says stuff is closing - it's closing no matter what the premier says unless he finds a way to fire her with cause.

Here's a good strategy for Canada
COVID Strategic Choices Canada

 

[Stylizer1]

Virus seems to be doing pretty well in Florida, California, Texas, and Arizona right now.

True, so maybe population density is the biggest factor in combating this virus.
the country of Australia has 25 million
Florida has 21.5 million
Texas has 29 million
California has 39.5 million

 

[Micklebot]

True, so maybe population density is the biggest factor in combating this virus.
the country of Australia has 25 million
Florida has 21.5 million
Texas has 29 million
California has 39.5 million

Pop density is almost assuredly a huge factor. 67% of Australians live in state and territory capital cities. Thats 8 cities.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

We just haven't seen that in Atlantic Canada or the North. If people aren't willing to be honest then that says a lot about them with something this severe. One difference I think for where i'm originally from (NL) is that our Chief Medical Officer of Health has actual power via legislation versus the political decisions made by Government leaders elsewhere. If she says stuff is closing - it's closing no matter what the premier says unless he finds a way to fire her with cause.

Here's a good strategy for Canada
COVID Strategic Choices Canada

I do think the East coast has been more strict than we have in Ontario. Which helps. I have friends in the East coast and they seem to be controlling things way way better (international air travel for example).

But honestly people are selfish. I know one hospital in my area stopped allowing father's in for their child's birth after a father who was Covid positive lied about it and came to the hospital regardless. Now this has changed, but a lot of people lie and are selfish unfortunately.

 

[Qward]

Australia went hard at it. If you came into the country they put you in a hotel that was locked down by the army.

They werent playing games.

 

[Beech]

Australia went hard at it. If you came into the country they put you in a hotel that was locked down by the army.

They weren't playing games.

a solid 70-80% of all Canadians live within 200 KM of the worlds longest border. A border that divides us from the nation where the virus is running near worst, among G20 nations. Canada is a nation that has ~ 1/3 of its entire population made up of first generation immigrants. And so a full 1/3 have ties to nations outside of Canada. A nation that is a top 5 in the world in terms of severity of winter. So a solid 10-20% of its population will drift South to get to warmer locales for small to extended periods of time. An economy so integrated with the USA, it is impossible to function without interactions with them.

The Aussies are to be saluted for their measures and for their incredible control of this. But there are realities. No borders...an island. Their 1/3 immigrants are primarily from other Asian nations. Nations that cracked down on covid way harder than the Americans did. In fact way harder than many, if not all nations, did. So Australia was in a sterile environment to begin with. Australia is going through summer and even their winters are no where near ours. Australia's middle is an unbearable desert. Australians do not have snowbirds and people lining up by the plane load to head to someplace south. Their vacation habits are internal. If they need warmth they go to desert locations, they need water, drift out to the edges. They need winter and snow, they find it in the North and mountain areas.

It is difficult, if not impossible to duplicate Australia. Relatively speaking, we are doing very well.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

a solid 70-80% of all Canadians live within 200 KM of the worlds longest border. A border that divides us from the nation where the virus is running near worst, among G20 nations. Canada is a nation that has ~ 1/3 of its entire population made up of first generation immigrants. And so a full 1/3 have ties to nations outside of Canada. A nation that is a top 5 in the world in terms of severity of winter. So a solid 10-20% of its population will drift South to get to warmer locales for small to extended periods of time. An economy so integrated with the USA, it is impossible to function without interactions with them.

The Aussies are to be saluted for their measures and for their incredible control of this. But there are realities. No borders...an island. Their 1/3 immigrants are primarily from other Asian nations. Nations that cracked down on covid way harder than the Americans did. In fact way harder than many, if not all nations, did. So Australia was in a sterile environment to begin with. Australia is going through summer and even their winters are no where near ours. Australia's middle is an unbearable desert. Australians do not have snowbirds and people lining up by the plane load to head to someplace south. There vacation habits are internal. If they need warmth to go to desert locations, they need water, drift out to the edges. They need winter and snow, they find it in the North and mountain areas.

It is difficult, if not impossible to duplicate Australia. Relatively speaking, we are doing very well.

Very well said. I’m going to be copying and pasting this and sending it to some people I know.

 

[Stylizer1]

Swine flu offers 'extraordinary super immunity'

Extraordinary immunity

In the nine patients they studied who had caught swine flu during the pandemic, they found the infection had triggered the production of a wide range of antibodies that are only very rarely seen after seasonal flu infections or flu vaccination.
Five antibodies isolated by the team could fight all the seasonal H1N1 flu strains from the last decade, the devastating "Spanish flu" strain from 1918 which killed up to 50m people, plus a potentially deadly bird flu H5N1 strain.
The researchers believe the "extraordinarily" powerful antibodies were created as the body learned how to fight the new infection with swine flu using its old memory of how to fight off other flu viruses.

This is very telling because I believe I contract h1n1 in Oct. 2009 because I was extremely sick. I wonder if this helps protect people from covid?

 

[foggyvisor]

Thanks to indoor gatherings over the holidays, triage coming to Ontario hospitals in February. Looks like we'll have our own NYC/Madrid/Bergamo a year later.

 

[Sens]

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Hockey cancelled after 8 in kbec

 

[Beech]

Ontario

Quebec

look at the number of daily tests. Twice as much....BUT..see population

Average daily tests in Ontario in the neighborhood of 65,000 the last few days. Average in Quebec is 35,000. Making both provinces nearly identical in terms of testing. It also means that Quebec's spread is similar to Ontario's ~ 3 x at present, and ~ 5 x overall. Quebec is ~ 2600 daily cases. Ontario ~ 3600. So absolute is; ~ 7800 case Quebec and ~ 10800 Ontario. A little higher in Quebec than Ontario. Deaths in Ontario ~ 50/day over the last 6-7. Deaths in Quebec ~ 38.

Quebec has ~ 800 of Canada's 1000 long term care homes.... that makes it around 80,000-100,000 people in there. Add to it condo living. Old fashion row houses typical of Montreal architecture and Quebec is a tinder box. One match and the whole thing goes up. No wonder they are in a panic and no wonder we are not. Not as much tinder other than TO.

 

[Sens]

Ontario
View attachment 383312

Quebec
View attachment 383305

look at the number of daily tests. Twice as much....BUT..see population
View attachment 383311
Average daily tests in Ontario in the neighborhood of 65,000 the last few days. Average in Quebec is 35,000. Making both provinces nearly identical in terms of testing. It also means that Quebec's spread is similar to Ontario's ~ 3 x at present, and ~ 5 x overall. Quebec is ~ 2600 daily cases. Ontario ~ 3600. So absolute is; ~ 7800 case Quebec and ~ 10800 Ontario. A little higher in Quebec than Ontario. Deaths in Ontario ~ 50/day over the last 6-7. Deaths in Quebec ~ 38.

Quebec has ~ 800 of Canada's 1000 long term care homes.... that makes it around 80,000-100,000 people in there. Add to it condo living. Old fashion row houses typical of Montreal architecture and Quebec is a tinder box. One match and the whole thing goes up. No wonder they are in a panic and no wonder we are not. Not as much tinder other than TO.

quality research... thanks for taking the time

 

[Beech]

Thanks to indoor gatherings over the holidays, triage coming to Ontario hospitals in February. Looks like we'll have our own NYC/Madrid/Bergamo a year later.

I don't believe so. The panic was over the Jan 2-10 window, we passed it. As was expected, Friday the 8th was our worst day.

The effective R number went down late last week. I am guessing it will come down some more in another day or two.

The Dam held...weakly, but it held. I am guessing that the numbers will flatten out over the next 3-5 days and start to dip.

If you look at the rest of the world..UK, Germany, the USA..all the hot spots. They peaked on Friday..held on the weekend and are not surging today.

Grandma and Grandpa were smart enough to hide over the holidays... Baring something unforeseen, I doubt we will be Bergamo and others. Sadly, California did not escape it.

 

[foggyvisor]

I don't believe so. The panic was over the Jan 2-10 window, we passed it. As was expected, Friday the 8th was our worst day.

The effective R number went down late last week. I am guessing it will come down some more in another day or two.

The Dam held...weakly, but it held. I am guessing that the numbers will flatten out over the next 3-5 days and start to dip.

If you look at the rest of the world..UK, Germany, the USA..all the hot spots. They peaked on Friday..held on the weekend and are not surging today.

Grandma and Grandpa were smart enough to hide over the holidays... Baring something unforeseen, I doubt we will be Bergamo and others. Sadly, California did not escape it.

Errrr, the B117 variant is here. Wait for the new modeling tomorrow. We are not past this. People went nuts with individual gatherings from Dec. 21 to Dec. 31. Cell phone tracking shows people being very mobile during this period. Hospitalization will lag, as it always does, by a few weeks.

Also, where are you getting your #s?

% positivity today in Ontario is higher than Friday...

 

[Beech]

Errrr, the B117 variant is here. Wait for the new modeling tomorrow. We are not past this. People went nuts with individual gatherings from Dec. 21 to Dec. 31. Cell phone tracking shows people being very mobile during this period. Hospitalization will lag, as it always does, by a few weeks.

yes..I am fulling agreeing with you. But cases so far are so disproportionate in the sub 40 age group that; that number can skyrocket and not really impact the system. Virtually no deaths among them. The real danger has always been the same. Grandma and Grandpa. Virtually all deaths are in people 60 and above and they hid....If they hadn't, we would have seen a ridicules death rate by now... I mean 100 or more in Ontario. We have not seen any such number.

But you are correct, we still have to wait. It is why I said another few days. But what we have seen so far, indicates that the dam held.

Take a look at ICU Jan 2-Jan 6; 361-322 or an added 39.... Jan 7-11 (it may still go up)..387-361 or 26..same 5 day increment. Look at the 9th, 10 and 11th..only a small change.....

AGAIN. YOU MAY BE 100% RIGHT. It could explode. But so far..holding. Thursday/Friday of this week will be a real indicator. Weekends can be messy because of poor reporting. For reference Dec 21; 265 ICU and climbed fairly consistently until the 6th. Yes there was a 3 day stagnation at Christmas similar to now..so, we have to wait.

 

[coladin]

But what would the numbers be without the lockdown? Probably much worse, no?

This is the thing with the lockdown that was imposed.

We had a system in place. Color coordinated according to severity of infection per 100k. I think that when the province decided to throw that system out the window ands lockdown Ottawa anyways, i think they lost the room .

We will never know what the number would have been if we did not lockdown, but the City should have followed the directives and lockdown when it needed to be locked down. If at all. Perhaps, at this time, there would have been a lockdown. But the way it was handled was not consistent with what we were all sold and bought into.

Many holiday dinners, I know for a fact, were planned in restaurants following Christmas where they would be physically distant, but together. There were check and balances. This turned into home gatherings. I know a lot of people who said "screw this, we did everything right, I am going to do whatever I want now" type of thing. A dangerous consequence.

The reality is the numbers coincided with the last day of school, December 18, and look 10 days after and see how the numbers look. I have three kids, and i look like the nervous nelly stepping in and stopping the countless requests they all have received to get together. People just don't want to do what is necessary. Look at the age group that is principally affected. Looks to be the parents of said kids. Of course, the teachers unions are saying this was coming due to trends in numbers before school was out, but i don't interpret the numbers as they do. I see it happening, directly after school finished.

I personally know of a couple cases that were uncomfortably close with kids visiting uncles and aunts. They only went to drop off gifts, apparently.

I don't think the numbers would have been this high, if they just left us alone. We were doing perfectly acceptably fine. And we have already been indoors for sometime now, managing winter and being indoors more. Of course we will never know, but lockouts do not work. It hasn't.

 

[Fandlauer]

NY is literally throwing vaccines in the trash lmfao

 

[DaveMatthew]

NY is literally throwing vaccines in the trash lmfao

One of the biggest misses by governments around the world has been treating this as a medical problem instead of a public health problem. As callous as it sounds, the goal of vaccine distribution should not be to protect the most vulnerable. Fairness should take a back seat. All we should care about is reaching herd immunity - as soon as possible.

That means vaccinating as many people as you can, as quickly as you can. If those people happen to be the elderly or front-line workers? Great. But if not, it doesn't matter. Go out and jab whoever is closest. If we can vaccinate a 22 year old today but it'll take us a week to coordinate getting a shot for grandma - we should vaccinate the 22 year old.

Instead, people are dicking around talking about what's fair and who should be prioritized.

 

[JD1]

One of the biggest misses by governments around the world has been treating this as a medical problem instead of a public health problem. As callous as it sounds, the goal of vaccine distribution should not be to protect the most vulnerable. Fairness should take a back seat. All we should care about is reaching herd immunity - as soon as possible.

That means vaccinating as many people as you can, as quickly as you can. If those people happen to be the elderly or front-line workers? Great. But if not, it doesn't matter. Go out and jab whoever is closest. If we can vaccinate a 22 year old today but it'll take us a week to coordinate getting a shot for grandma - we should vaccinate the 22 year old.

Instead, people are dicking around talking about what's fair and who should be prioritized.

Governments gonna government

 

[foggyvisor]

This is the thing with the lockdown that was imposed.

We had a system in place. Color coordinated according to severity of infection per 100k. I think that when the province decided to throw that system out the window ands lockdown Ottawa anyways, i think they lost the room

The "system" was complete garbage, and did not get properly stamped by the relevant health authorities, because all the thresholds were massively inflated from the recommendations from said health authorities. This was a scandal for the government. Thank goodness it was thrown out the window.

Proper lockdowns work. What we have is a badly-communicated, messy, incremental one which where non-essential things are deemed essential.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Prior the the 2nd lockdown, the Ontario Government announced that "In January 2021, applications will open for the new Ontario Small Business Support Grant, which will help small businesses that are required to close or significantly restrict services under the new Province-wide Shutdown effective December 26, 2020."

We're now almost half way through January, and eligibility details have not been released, nor have applications opened.

But small business owners should feel "taken care of" thanks to all of these programs...