OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 8

[Sens]

Mandatory work from home for non essential workers
Non essential retail must be closed by 8pm
I'm confused.

 

[Beech]

The modeling is BLEAK. Lots of deaths coming.

8 free beds in the 3 Ottawa hospitals.
0 in Cornwall.
2 in Kingston.

now, I am guessing that they have made some provisions in the 10 other smaller hospitals around (Kemptville, etc.), but at best there may be 20 ICU beds for 1.5 million people.

One storm, one cold snap, one outbreak of measles, mumps, the flu and booked solid.

 

[foggyvisor]

8 free beds in the 3 Ottawa hospitals.
0 in Cornwall.
2 in Kingston.

now, I am guessing that they have made some provisions in the 10 other smaller hospitals around (Kemptville, etc.), but at best there may be 20 ICU beds for 1.5 million people.

One storm, one cold snap, one outbreak of measles, mumps, the flu and booked solid.

And yet 1/3rd of people don't care. Kind of gross.

 

[Masked]

now, I am guessing that they have made some provisions in the 10 other smaller hospitals around (Kemptville, etc.), but at best there may be 20 ICU beds for 1.5 million people.

I don't think we should be including Gatineau in that number.

 

[Sens]

Andrea Horwarth is on CP24 saying Ford did absolutely nothing

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Details

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/59922/ontario-declares-second-provincial-emergency-to-address-covid-19-crisis-and-save-lives

 

[foggyvisor]

So everyone "essential" is still essential.

No paid sick days.

Basically the government has given up and is going to let hospitals go under-water. And continue to leave the vulnerable, working in factories etc, to fend for themselves.

 

[Beech]

I don't think we should be including Gatineau in that number.

Ottawa is ~ 1 million. Sweep east to the Quebec border, south to the US border and west to a line from Pembroke down to Kingston. Eastern Ontario..

Population; easily 1.5 million people.

Cornwall: 0
Kingston: 2
Brockvile: 4
Pembroke: 3
Ottawa: 12..(My apologies I misread and missed the Montford)

So, 1,5 million have 21 rooms. Plus the makeshift..so, we are up to 30.

not much changes. Any issue and we flood. And this does not account for the B117 (UK variant) which has yet to fully spread.

Your jaw will drop at the rest of the province. ~ 100 rooms for 13 million people.

 

[Beech]

And yet 1/3rd of people don't care. Kind of gross.

Eastern Ontario: officially 21 free ICU (I am assuming they have makeshift for now covid in other hospitals, I don't know).
The rest of the province. ~ 13 million people...~ 100 rooms. A room for every 130,000 persons. OUCH.

No one better do so much as be careless walking outside for the fear of falling on the ice.

 

[Sens]

I feel as if we should be able to handle more than 400 icu cases in a province of 14 million

like we should be able to effectively ramp up to 5000

it’s a sad state of society with all that 10s of billions of dollars floating around that hospital capacity is at the very bottom of needs

 

[Sens]

Looking forward to BLM views on this...

 

[DaveMatthew]

I feel as if we should be able to handle more than 400 icu cases in a province of 14 million

like we should be able to effectively ramp up to 5000

it’s a sad state of society with all that 10s of billions of dollars floating around that hospital capacity is at the very bottom of needs

Don't you dare criticize our healthcare system though... it's perfect...

 

[Beech]

I feel as if we should be able to handle more than 400 icu cases in a province of 14 million

like we should be able to effectively ramp up to 5000

it’s a sad state of society with all that 10s of billions of dollars floating around that hospital capacity is at the very bottom of needs

no..don't confuse the two issues.

these ICUs are to handle respiratory..there is a term. "The hospital’s General campus has a 28-bed ICU that specializes in respiratory, thoracic and cancer care"...The citizen (April 2020.

These are special. Remember this thing is contagious. And not like someone with a heart condition that needs ICU. Covid patients need isolation.

we have 122 in eastern Ontario..the rest of the province has ~900. About a 9:1 ratio, which is reflective of the province. The amount of people dealing with respiratory ailments is not that large...only a tiny percentage have TB or other infectious diseases.

you just cannot roll a covid patient, next to someone dealing with a heart attack.

It is a miracle that we have the ~ 1100 that they showed. They must have jumped through hoops to get this. And more impressive is of the 1100 rooms, 387 are covid full and another 120 are free...way more than what I thought. 500 rooms..f'ng impressive...

Sadly though, per the April article. Nothing was done to increase that capacity.
The Ottawa Hospital has a plan to triple its ICU beds, doctor says | Ottawa Citizen

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Looking forward to BLM views on this...

Why are they leaving so much ambiguity on the table.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Looking forward to BLM views on this...

Giving police officers with vague guidelines on how to enforce something... that's never caused any problems in the past.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

They have explained it clear enough. People are angry and are bitching.

we are at a dangerous point in time. ICU capacity is near full. So much as a few added patients and we are finished.

Yeah, I work in an ICU, and it's going to be fun in the next coming weeks.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

8 free beds in the 3 Ottawa hospitals.
0 in Cornwall.
2 in Kingston.

now, I am guessing that they have made some provisions in the 10 other smaller hospitals around (Kemptville, etc.), but at best there may be 20 ICU beds for 1.5 million people.

One storm, one cold snap, one outbreak of measles, mumps, the flu and booked solid.

And what people fail to remember is that we have "prepped" for this slightly by cancelling non-essential procedures in attempts to open up more ICU space. I'm in a surgical ICU, and we have cut back by about 30% (most of the surgeries we do are pretty essential), and we were not busy the entire pandemic up until the last month. But now we are helping to clear up other pediatric ICU's (and NICU's) in a large surrounding area to open up more ICU spaces for adult patients.

I really hope I don't have any serious health issues in the next little while. I also hope I don't get COVID, as I am more likely to need hospitalization and ICU care.

 

[Upgrayedd]

How many years of unsuccessful lockdown measures do we think it takes for something else to be tried, or are we just down to this as the only option and if it doesn't work....shelter in place until death for all?

 

[The Lewler]

Does anyone else have some pieces of the social contract left that I can wipe my ass with ?

society is a mirage

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Does anyone else have some pieces of the social contract left that I can wipe my ass with ?

society is a mirage

Somewhere down the line, social media and the false equivalency that every opinion should be equally weighted corrupted the idea of a well-functioning society and ensured that the "I got mine, screw everyone else" crowd would win. It's tragic. Where else is there even to turn?

 

[Stylizer1]

I think people are at the point where if they do get it they will just deal with it. The fact the government is basing the spike on people not obeying guidelines is ridiculous. There is still no evidence of it. Isolated incidents of people gathering is an easy excuse.

 

[Stylizer1]

Canada will get another batch soon and you all will have wasted your time.

bump. lol

 

[JD1]

I want to zero in on something you said

we were not busy the entire pandemic up until the last month

Sadly I think this is part of the problem. I remember an ICU doc from southern ontario in about May said something to the effect of "we prepped and prepped and prepped for this...and nothing, got my feet up, there's nothing to do"

It's my opinion this is kind of "the boy that cried wolf" situation from day one, with very dire predictions none of which came close to materializing. Vera Etches saying 16,000 cases in April.

I think a lot of people are way past no linger longer giving a shit and the attutude is "oh, you're serious this time"

Just my take

Please don't take that as a commentary on the hard work you do as i know you guys are vattling in there and you certainly don't control the messaging. Keep up the good work and stay safe.

 

[JD1]

mexico tests at ~ 29,000 tests per 1 million persons.
Canada test at ~ 382,000 test per 1 million people.

What is your guess as to how many infected we catch, versus those that they (Mexico) catch? so we test 13 times higher than them...either they are brilliant at catching every infected person, or this thing is running rampant and they are only catching a small percentage!

The USA tests at ~ 800,000 tests per million....based upon my reading, many feel the spread in the USA is ~ 4 x.

So if the USA is 4x and tests at 800,000. Would we not be at ~ 8x and would Mexico be around 90x...Now my more accurate math shows the numbers are lower. Mexico is much closer to ~ 60x.

Ergo Mexico's true case is: 1.5 million times 60 = 90 million. Out of ~ 130 million. So about 68%.

Do research...read...silent spread...asymptomatic has been the killer. It was once believed that the spread was as high as 20:1..and in the early days it was. As we have ramped up testing and people have become more aware, the spread has fallen.

It is why the real death rate, once corrected for spread is about 0.3% for a good country like Canada and ~ 0.8% for South Dakota. It is how I can tell who is lying and who is being honest with their reporting. Some are so bad, they show death numbers lower than the lowest possible. So either their population is superhuman, or they are concealing. The Ukraine..whaah..Russia strangely enough, honest. Croatia and Serbia...OOOOHH..Slovenia, honest. Brazil, Argentina...ooohhh..Belgium..they cook up.

I compared numbers against about 2 dozen nations and states. I gave a weighted value to nations and states who's numbers I trusted. It allowed me to correct to roughly.
Mexico ~ 60
USA ~ 4.2
Canada ~ 5.5

that number drops as we move forward. We test more today and people hide more. So active (and it changes day by day)
Mecixo ~52
USA ~ 2.5
Canada ~ 4.5

Feel good, Ontario tests at ~500,000 per million. Our spread is 4.4 for the entire period and a mere 3.0 at present.

So when Ontario was seeing ~ 2500 tested cases. That was really ~ 7,500 case. At a death rate of ~ 0.4% , you get 30 deaths and go back and check those number and you will see that it is about right. (yesterday 29 deaths, Dec 28-Dec 31 ~ 2500 cases)

I can impress you some more by showing you the math to get the ~0.4% death(vulnerable/non vulnerable) etc. It too, varies. Quebec has allowed it to get into the vulnerable group and they are at ~ 0.6%. That is why their present 2500 a day will be flushed out at around 40 deaths.

I have been predicting deaths to a fairly accurate number for about 2 months now. Sadly the 3500 cases we are seeing now, will be flushed out at ~ 50 deaths a day for the days it takes to bring the 3500 down.

the math allows you to understand what is happening and sadly it gives you insight to what will come. It is sobering to see 2-3 days of soaring numbers, knowing that 10 days later, you can tell to within a few people how many will die!!!

FYI. Quebec and Ontario actually drag the rest of Canada down. Our numbers are way worse than the rest of the country..but that is the price of having Canada's 4-5 largest cities. Some provinces are only seeing a 0.1-0.2% death rate. They hardly feel it.

Maybe we've made it really easy to get tested and implore people to do so. What would happen in a scenario like that? Lots of negative tests

Now, how about where it's way harder to get a test and less encouragement to do so. For certain there will be untested positives but i think there'd also be more reason for the average tested citizen to believe that they may have covid. Make something difficult to do, people will think twice about doing it. I have a headache. Nope, don't need to get a covid test, it's jst a headache. I have a sore throat. Nope, don't need a covid test, just a sore throat. My 6 year old boy has a snotty nose. Nope, not covid, just a standard snot nosed 6 year old.

Your math seems kinda predicated on some assumptions that I'm not sure I agree with.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

8 free beds in the 3 Ottawa hospitals.
0 in Cornwall.
2 in Kingston.

now, I am guessing that they have made some provisions in the 10 other smaller hospitals around (Kemptville, etc.), but at best there may be 20 ICU beds for 1.5 million people.

One storm, one cold snap, one outbreak of measles, mumps, the flu and booked solid.

Have we heard from Ottawa hospitals that they are not overcrowded at all