OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 8

[Here I Pageau Again]

yea you actually did. read a post from HereIPageau again...an ICU nurse....scroll up a page or two

To be fair, I work in the GTA. So most info I get is from the GTA.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

Yeah saw that after I wrote. It’s all very weird. It’s not like Ottawa numbers are at their highest ever? Or are they?

From what I understand in the GTA, our numbers are often high in the winter time. The biggest difference is that we are not doing procedures that aren't urgent which decreases the ICU admissions by 30-50%. Also, COVID ICU stays are long. While generally an ICU stay is under a week, COVID patients spend an average of 21 days in the ICU.

So the issue is a bit complicated. We do reach high ICU numbers in the winter fairly typically, but that's with still doing non urgent surgeries and procedures. We also can flex above funded bed spaces. So, for example, my unit is funded for 18 ICU beds, but we can flex up to 21 (and if our NICU isn't busy we can borrow space and go up to 25). The issue now becomes staffing at that rate. Because with Covid we expect 15-20% decrease in staffing due to Covid. We have been lucky in our unit, but if we decrease our staffing by that much, care is going to go down the drain pretty quickly, infection rates will increase, length of stay will increase. It sort of snow balls.

I also think my biggest issue with the whole Covid "let everyone get it" train of thought, is that we do not know what kind of long term issues this will cause. We already know lots of young people are having cardiac issues and lung issues (in people who are asymptomatic as well). What if those don't improve? What happens in 10 years? So these people now need hospital care any time they get the flu or a cold? We obviously don't know the answer, but I've never seen a virus cause so much cardiac problems, so I can't help but wonder what happens long term

 

[Burrowsaurus]

From what I understand in the GTA, our numbers are often high in the winter time. The biggest difference is that we are not doing procedures that aren't urgent which decreases the ICU admissions by 30-50%. Also, COVID ICU stays are long. While generally an ICU stay is under a week, COVID patients spend an average of 21 days in the ICU.

So the issue is a bit complicated. We do reach high ICU numbers in the winter fairly typically, but that's with still doing non urgent surgeries and procedures. We also can flex above funded bed spaces. So, for example, my unit is funded for 18 ICU beds, but we can flex up to 21 (and if our NICU isn't busy we can borrow space and go up to 25). The issue now becomes staffing at that rate. Because with Covid we expect 15-20% decrease in staffing due to Covid. We have been lucky in our unit, but if we decrease our staffing by that much, care is going to go down the drain pretty quickly, infection rates will increase, length of stay will increase. It sort of snow balls.

Sorry I was talking about ottawa specifically.

 

[Beech]

Sorry I was talking about Ottawa specifically.

It doesn't change things that much. Yea,we know the GTA and elsewhere is worse than we are. But you cannot distinguish.

In either case, per the Ford presentation. Ottawa has 12 free ICU beds (Respiratory ICU). I threw the paper away. Scroll up, you will get my link. It showed all the hospitals and their free beds. A solid 50% had 2 beds or less. And a good 10 or so had 0 beds.

Total, there are something like 1100 in the province and ~90 in Ottawa. Based upon the chart that I saw, It seemed to suggest that between 60 and 70 % where taken, non covid. It pretty much meant that non covid occupation was around 58 beds. Leaving about 32 free. We are down to 12..So we have eaten up a little over 1/2. That is fantastic.

But all around is being booked quickly. East of us is only Cornwall, 0 beds. West is Brockville, Pembrok and Kingston. Something like 8 beds total.

Our respiratory ICU setup is meant for TB and a few other lung diseases that we have beaten into submission. No one anticipated this. And yes..the government F'd up. An Ottawa Citizen article in April talked about tripling capacity...they did not.

This will end soon. Province wide ICUs went from 388 on Saturday to 385 today. It looks like the dam is holding. I totaled the numbers shown by the slide. This province was down to something like 100 ICUs for 15 million people. And only about 70 for the 12 or so million in the GTA/Southern Ontario belt. The slightest event would have tripped the system into crash.

 

[The Lewler]

It doesn't change things that much. Yea,we know the GTA and elsewhere is worse than we are. But you cannot distinguish.

In either case, per the Ford presentation. Ottawa has 12 free ICU beds (Respiratory ICU). I threw the paper away. Scroll up, you will get my link. It showed all the hospitals and their free beds. A solid 50% had 2 beds or less. And a good 10 or so had 0 beds.

Total, there are something like 1100 in the province and ~90 in Ottawa. Based upon the chart that I saw, It seemed to suggest that between 60 and 70 % where taken, non covid. It pretty much meant that non covid occupation was around 58 beds. Leaving about 32 free. We are down to 12..So we have eaten up a little over 1/2. That is fantastic.

But all around is being booked quickly. East of us is only Cornwall, 0 beds. West is Brockville, Pembrok and Kingston. Something like 8 beds total.

Our respiratory ICU setup is meant for TB and a few other lung diseases that we have beaten into submission. No one anticipated this. And yes..the government F'd up. An Ottawa Citizen article in April talked about tripling capacity...they did not.

This will end soon. Province wide ICUs went from 388 on Saturday to 385 today. It looks like the dam is holding. I totaled the numbers shown by the slide. This province was down to something like 100 ICUs for 15 million people. And only about 70 for the 12 or so million in the GTA/Southern Ontario belt. The slightest event would have tripped the system into crash.

I am hopeful this is is the case , but we are in an extremely precarious situation right now , with an unknown amount of highly transmissible variant in the community now.

We have nowhere near enough data and lead time to say that was the peak and the dam held .

 

[Beech]

I am hopeful this is is the case , but we are in an extremely precarious situation right now , with an unknown amount of highly transmissible variant in the community now.

We have nowhere near enough data and lead time to say that was the peak and the damn held .

yea... the UK variant, B117. So far negligible here. The South African.

should it hit,,Good night. The Brits are being massacred. As are the SA and they are going through summer!!!!

 

[Stylizer1]

Toronto has been in lock down for over 70 days but still record breaking numbers.

 

[foggyvisor]

Toronto has been in lock down for over 70 days but still record breaking numbers.

1) Lockdown is a blanket term. They way you use it makes it sound like everyone is staying at home. They are not, nor have they been required to.

2) The numbers could be worse.

 

[Stylizer1]

no more virus when hockey comes around. lol

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

no more virus when hockey comes around. lol

Hockey is a nice distraction.

 

[Upgrayedd]

no more virus when hockey comes around. lol

If the virus is anywhere as bad as our gov has led us to believe there's no way pro hockey should be being played, or really any sport...among many other things that are also currently allowed, hilarious how people will justify it to themselves though!

 

[Stylizer1]

funny how by the end of Friday it was reported that all nursing home workers will have been vaccinated. Problem is over half probably didn't want it. lol

 

[JD1]

If the virus is anywhere as bad as our gov has led us to believe there's no way pro hockey should be being played, or really any sport...among many other things that are also currently allowed, hilarious how people will justify it to themselves though!

It's bad in terms of easily circulating in society and it's bad in terms of harming the elderly and the vulnerable

It doesn't appear to be too problematic for young healty people

I think the science is also starting to be better understood in terms if who is vulnerable and why...there starting to isolate certain things that make some otherwise healthy people vulnerable and others not

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

It doesn't appear to be too problematic for young healty people

Until we know the long-term impacts, there's no degree of certainty to this. Especially with a respiratory virus impacting high-performance athletes whose livelihood depends in large part on their lung function.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Until we know the long-term impacts, there's no degree of certainty to this. Especially with a respiratory virus impacting high-performance athletes whose livelihood depends in large part on their lung function.

There's no degree of certainty at this point, but it appears the medical experts are fairly confident. I can't see the league or the players agreeing to play if there was a high degree of long term risk from them contracting covid. Didn't almost all of the Dallas Stars just contract the virus?

 

[JD1]

Until we know the long-term impacts, there's no degree of certainty to this. Especially with a respiratory virus impacting high-performance athletes whose livelihood depends in large part on their lung function.

Right. But like I said, they are starting to understand why it impacts some people more severely and that understanding is critical

It's not random why some people and not others and they're piecing it together

 

[Micklebot]

There's no degree of certainty at this point, but it appears the medical experts are fairly confident. I can't see the league or the players agreeing to play if there was a high degree of long term risk from them contracting covid. Didn't almost all of the Dallas Stars just contract the virus?

Idk, this the same league and players that knew about the potential for long term impact of concussions still kept putting guys out there after getting their bell rung for the longest time until it became indisputable. Heck, we still see guys who probably shouldn't be out there go out there.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Idk, this the same league and players that knew about the potential for long term impact of concussions still kept putting guys out there after getting their bell rung for the longest time until it became indisputable. Heck, we still see guys who probably shouldn't be out there go out there.

Ya, true. It does seem like every pro sport has gone ahead knowing that this virus will likely pass through a lot of the teams. It leads me to believe they don’t think there is much risk with long lasting effects for athletes who catch covid. You got to think it might bring an end to a few hockey players careers who catch it though.

It goes without saying that while covid might not be to bad for top tier athletes it’s absolutely devastating for the vulnerable.

 

[Micklebot]

Ya, true. It does seem like every pro sport has gone ahead knowing that this virus will likely pass through a lot of the teams. It leads me to believe they don’t think there is much risk with long lasting effects for athletes who catch covid. You got to think it might bring an end to a few hockey players careers who catch it though.

It goes without saying that while covid might not be to bad for top tier athletes it’s absolutely devastating for the vulnerable.

I may be jaded, but imo money means more to teams than long term health of the athletes, and athletes are notorious for short term thinking and ignoring future ramifications.

 

[Stylizer1]

I may be jaded, but imo money means more to teams than long term health of the athletes, and athletes are notorious for short term thinking and ignoring future ramifications.

dam brain injuries. lol

 

[JD1]

I may be jaded, but imo money means more to teams than long term health of the athletes, and athletes are notorious for short term thinking and ignoring future ramifications.

Money appears to mean a lot to the athletes as well

Off the top of my head, i can't think of anyone that has opted out where the player clearly had a career in front of them. The guys that have opted out all had their careers in the rear view

 

[Micklebot]

Money appears to mean a lot to the athletes as well

Off the top of my head, i can't think of anyone that has opted out where the player clearly had a career in front of them. The guys that have opted out all had their careers in the rear view

Certainly, money is one of the short term things athletes think about. "If i don't play through this, what will it do to my next contract..."

 

[Beech]

Certainly, money is one of the short term things athletes think about. "If i don't play through this, what will it do to my next contract..."

This is now season 2 of the league operating as the virus dominates. Any further shutting down, slowing down of operations could be catastrophic. Any reasonable examination of the situation with the virus will tell you that September to October of 2021 may be the earliest we return to normal..and this assumes that we get going on the vaccine. Which we now see is not going anywhere near as well. Fan concern could mean half empty buildings. A destroyed Western economy will almost surely mean half empty.

What all of this could mean is; parts of 3 seasons will be impacted. Some players who's career may be limited to ~ 3 seasons (probably about 10-20% of all players) will have that occur during this mess. So yes, a chunk of all players had better play.

Next contracts may be in a league with 24-26 teams. In a cap world that is stagnant and with the bulk of all owners opting for the salary floor to try and recoup massive losses. It will be interesting to see the NHL in 2021 to about 2024.

Covid is doing 2 things. It is returning us to the 1960's and back in time, when few octogenarians and nonagenarian were around and sending the NHL to the same era, when players towed the line.

 

[Here I Pageau Again]

I may be jaded, but imo money means more to teams than long term health of the athletes, and athletes are notorious for short term thinking and ignoring future ramifications.

I think similarly. If you look at some studies done in the States on heart and lung health of positive athletes, it's shocking. Whether that translates to long term issues, we don't know.

 

[Beech]

Ya, true. It does seem like every pro sport has gone ahead knowing that this virus will likely pass through a lot of the teams. It leads me to believe they don’t think there is much risk with long lasting effects for athletes who catch covid. You got to think it might bring an end to a few hockey players careers who catch it though.

It goes without saying that while covid might not be to bad for top tier athletes it’s absolutely devastating for the vulnerable.

watch the ESPN documentary on Lance Armstrong and hear Michael Rasmussen talk about drugs and watch the ESPN documentary on Michael Jordan and hear him talk about a cure for a headache that may kill you.

The common theme. Athletes are different. They are driven in a crazy way. There is little fear of covid among them.

Owners, are athletes focused on money, rather than sport..

So the two come together perfectly. One wants to play no mater what, the other wants them to play, no matter what.

the real test will be when they open up arenas. That 10-20% of society that is "athlete like" is not enough to fill them. What will happen with the remaining 80-90%, will they go? will Mr and Mrs owner of a local business, worth a few bucks, are season ticket holders, are in their 60's or 70's...will they go?