Player Discussion Evan Bouchard

[Stoneman89]

Thought he had his best game of the year last night. Made smart plays and got involved physically, and took charge back there. Sometimes, he just goes into a fog.

 

[bucks_oil]

Seems about right. Another bridge contract for him after this season sounds like a baaad idea.

Say goodbye to two of Foegele, Yama, Pulju and Barrie then and replace them with league min contracts or ELC.

We have only $2.25M in cap (Lucic & Sekera) coming off the books. Everything else that is expiring is at or near league minimum (so it gets replaced at the same cost).

So that means we need to find $4.25M in net savings. Barrie alone doesn't do it (since you need to pay someone $750K to take his spot).

Practically speaking... How are you "pro $7M long term" guys going to make it all work?

Will you be a better team in the next three years with Bouchard happy at $7M vs bridged at $5M, plus the additional $2M in cap?

How happy are McDrai when one of them gets Holloway (probably happy) and the other one gets another ELC kid (probably not) on their wing?

I'm not trying to be argumentative just for the sport of it... I'm honestly curious where you all would find the money and what you are willing to sacrifice in the short term.

It isn't going to be easy and the choices are real... real sacrifices to make it happen.

 

[The Nuge]

$7.25 for 8 years

That’s an unreasonable ask. Dobson set his comparable for the next 3 years at 4 million. 7.25 would essentially mean we’re paying him 9.2 per year for the 5 years after that. 6-6.5 per is fair

 

[McShogun99]

Say goodbye to two of Foegele, Yama, Pulju and Barrie then and replace them with league min contracts or ELC.

We have only $2.25M in cap (Lucic & Sekera) coming off the books. Everything else that is expiring is at or near league minimum (so it gets replaced at the same cost).

So that means we need to find $4.25M in net savings. Barrie alone doesn't do it (since you need to pay someone $750K to take his spot).

Practically speaking... How are you "pro $7M long term" guys going to make it all work?

Will you be a better team in the next three years with Bouchard happy at $7M vs bridged at $5M, plus the additional $2M in cap?

How happy are McDrai when one of them gets Holloway (probably happy) and the other one gets another ELC kid (probably not) on their wing?

I'm not trying to be argumentative just for the sport of it... I'm honestly curious where you all would find the money and what you are willing to sacrifice in the short term.

It isn't going to be easy and the choices are real... real sacrifices to make it happen.

Cap is rumored to go up 4 million this off season plus Lucic and Sekera coming off the books will cover his raise. I just hope they sign him for 8 years.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Cap is rumored to go up 4 million this off season plus Lucic and Sekera coming off the books will cover his raise. I just hope they sign him for 8 years.

Players don't sign 8 year deals unless they are hitting the home run. Bouchard isn't worth that. He's outside the top 40 defenseman in the league. Show me one player that has signed for 8 years that isn't making upper echelon NHL money. Try for 6 years and if he wants too much settle for five years. 6x6M or 5x5M is perfectly reasonable for this player.

I want to see back to basics Bouchard playing an elevated level of two way hockey and not some hyped up player like Barrie 2.0. And it has to be said, Barrie is vastly superior to Bouchard on the powerplay.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

That's about right.

I'd rather Dobson-bridge at that price and pay the $9 later (or $7.5 if the defensive game doesn't round out).

If he has a breakout, it might be a hell of a lot highet than 9.

 

[syz]

How happy are McDrai when one of them gets Holloway (probably happy) and the other one gets another ELC kid (probably not) on their wing?

McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, Hyman, and RNH are 5 out of the top 6. Only need one Holloway/Bourgault/Schaefer type to be the last man there.

That said McLeod and Skinner will also be getting raises of some sort next summer so it would still be hard to do anything but bridge Bouchard.

 

[bucks_oil]

If he has a breakout, it might be a hell of a lot highet than 9.

"A nice problem to have"

If he's worth more than 9 it's because he's found a quiet shutdown game to go with his offense, which would make him one of the better players in the game.

I don't think we should be paying him 80% of that value until we actually see it. And as stated, my rationale has everything to do with where we are as a team in our build. Stage one is to get the core locked up long term. Stage two is to profit from your development program coming along while their contracts are still cheap. He's in that 2nd group for me, so the tactics are different.

McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, Hyman, and RNH are 5 out of the top 6. Only need one Holloway/Bourgault/Schaefer type to be the last man there.

That said McLeod and Skinner will also be getting raises of some sort next summer so it would still be hard to do anything but bridge Bouchard.

I really hope RNH is the foundation of our third line,... that's why I was saying we need two.

But I suppose McLeod can be the 3rd line foundation if he continues to strengthen his defensive game.

 

[bucks_oil]

Cap is rumored to go up 4 million this off season plus Lucic and Sekera coming off the books will cover his raise. I just hope they sign him for 8 years.

+4M would be huge. I hadn't heard that.

It's still going to be very tight though... as others have said, both McLeod and Skinner are due for a raise. That could easily take $3M of the $4M right there, given they are both under a million presently. So then you've got somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.5 to $3.5M available for Bouchard and you need $4 for a bridge and $6+ for a longer term deal.

It's still super tight. You would be forced to drop Pulju or Foegele (hope the latter) just to put a decent bridge contract in front of Bouch.

 

[McShogun99]

+4M would be huge. I hadn't heard that.

It's still going to be very tight though... as others have said, both McLeod and Skinner are due for a raise. That could easily take $3M of the $4M right there, given they are both under a million presently. So then you've got somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.5 to $3.5M available for Bouchard and you need $4 for a bridge and $6+ for a longer term deal.

It's still super tight. You would be forced to drop Pulju or Foegele (hope the latter) just to put a decent bridge contract in front of Bouch.

JP is guaranteed to be gone and probably Barrie as well if they feel Bouchard is ready to replace him.

 

[bucks_oil]

JP is guaranteed to be gone and probably Barrie as well if they feel Bouchard is ready to replace him.

Alright... let's run the numbers.
Edmonton Oilers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Option A: we scrimp and save to sign Bouch long term. It requires:

* $4M increase in cap​

* $2.25M from Lucic/Sekera expiry​

* Derek Ryan resigns or is replaced at league min​

* Shore, Murray, etc... are ~at league min, so they don't matter​

* Pulju as an asset is wasted for a pick, replaced with an ELC, saving us another $2.1M​

* Total available cap is $8.85M​

* McLeod gets bridged at $2.3M (eating $1.5M of the above)​

* Skinner gets bridged at $1.8M (eating $1M of the above)​

* Then we can then sign Bouchard long term for $7.35M​

* Net, net... we'll ice a worse team next year then we have this year, since:​

* Ryan and Pulju are gone and replaced with league min/ELC players.​

* We'll still have zero cap available at the deadline for trade.​

* If we want to upgrade at any position we'll have to trade Barrie, replace him with league min and still only have space for a $3.75M guy (Barrie's $4.5M - $750K)​

​

Option B: bridge Bouch at $5M

* Everything else as above, but we'd have $2.35M in real cap space.​

* We can spend it in the summer on a $3M defender or defensive forward, or two ~$2M wingers instead of two league min guys, OR​

* We save it and it accrues to allow us to spend on ~$6-7M in player salaries at the deadline​

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[Delicious Pancakes]

Alright... let's run the numbers.
Edmonton Oilers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Option A: we scrimp and save to sign Bouch long term. It requires:

* $4M increase in cap​

* $2.25M from Lucic/Sekera expiry​

* Derek Ryan resigns or is replaced at league min​

* Shore, Murray, etc... are ~at league min, so they don't matter​

* Pulju as an asset is wasted for a pick, replaced with an ELC, saving us another $2.1M​

* Total available cap is $8.85M​

* McLeod gets bridged at $2.3M (eating $1.5M of the above)​

* Skinner gets bridged at $1.8M (eating $1M of the above)​

* Then we can then sign Bouchard long term for $7.35M​

* Net, net... we'll ice a worse team next year then we have this year, since:​

* Ryan and Pulju are gone and replaced with league min/ELC players.​

* We'll still have zero cap available at the deadline for trade.​

* If we want to upgrade at any position we'll have to trade Barrie, replace him with league min and still only have space for a $3.75M guy (Barrie's $4.5M - $750K)​

​

Option B: bridge Bouch at $5M

* Everything else as above, but we'd have $2.35M in real cap space.​

* We can spend it in the summer on a $3M defender or defensive forward, or two ~$2M wingers instead of two league min guys, OR​

* We save it and it accrues to allow us to spend on ~$6-7M in player salaries at the deadline​

​

​

​

​

Assuming Bouchard takes an average step up in development and the Oilers are paying him at least $5M next year, the only option is shedding cap, so determining which contracts to shed for cap reasons will really depend on the performance of the players you would consider trading, what you can get in return for trading those players, and the development of their young AHL players this year and whether those players have a reasonable chance of earning an NHL roster spot when Holland has to make his decisions next summer. As for the latter, I would think it would be a surprise if Schaefer and Petrov were ready for the NHL next year, but Hamblin, Bourgault and even Tullio could be if they can make strides in their game this year, as could Kesselring and Kemp on defense. For shedding contracts, at least one of Pulju, Yamo and Foegele have to go, and possibly two of them, along with probably Barrie.

If the young defencemen develop and you're comfortable running Broberg, Niemo and Kesselring as your #5-7 dmen then that makes moving Barrie more palatable. In the case of moving Barrie the biggest loss is his contribution on the PP. For D on the PP then, Bouchard would be on PP1, Nurse on PP2, and you run 4 forwards on both units (McD, Drai, RNH, Hyman, and Kane, McLeod, Holloway, forward X).

So then if Barrie is moved maybe you only lose one of the wingers. Who is traded will likely come down to performance and fit. It would really help if Pulju, Yamo and Foegele could have good years and produce so that making a trade is easier. If you've got a 3rd line of Foegele, McLeod and Pulju who are effective and producing well for a 3rd line then maybe you re-sign Pulju for around the same cap hit and Yamo gets dealt. If Jesse wants more money, or wants a top 6 role or change of scenery then he gets shipped out. Or maybe Foegele is the odd man out and you're able to keep both Jesse and Yamo on the right side. Or maybe all 3 of them get shipped out because Bourgault has taken a big enough step, they want a blueline upgrade and they're happy enough to fill out the bottom 6 with one good $2M UFA and the rest close to league minimum.

There are so many variables right now, it's just really dependent on other players' performances and development this year and whether you want to maximize cap space in the next 3 years while you know you have the core locked up. Ideally you could sign Bouchard long term on a deal that looks really economical in the last few years, but as we know, that might not be an option. If you can turn Yamo, Pulju, Foegele or Barrie into cheaper replacement options who can break even in GF/GA though then wouldn't you consider doing that if you could get Bouchard on a better long term deal? Then with signing Bouchard at $7.25Mx8, McLeod at $2.2Mx2, and Skinner at $1.8Mx2 the roster could look something like this:

RNH - McD - Hyman
Holloway - Drai - Kane
Foegele - McLeod - Bourgault
Hamblin - $1.25M RC - Benson @ $775k
$775k 13th fwd

Nurse - Ceci
Kulak - Bouchard
Broberg - Soucy @ $3.25M
Niemo

Campbell
Skinner

That's a 22 man roster sitting at $83.25M. Add the James Neal buyout and say another $800k for bonus overages and you're at just under $86M. That works if the cap goes up by $4M to $86.5M, and you've still got half a mil to work with for injuries and such. They could also run with 12 forwards at times assuming they're not in LTIR and accrue more cap space for a deadline trade too.

If the cap only goes up by $1M to $83.5M though, then say goodbye your UFA Barrie replacement, in this example Soucy. If you replace him with Kesselring @ $925k you're still $125k over the cap so maybe you only pay your 4th line RC $1.0M so that then you have $125k in cap space with a 22 man roster. It's still workable but you're filling out your bottom pairing and 4th line with rookies, and league minimum players.

There are also other permutations but these are a couple examples of how it could work to sign Bouchard to a long term $7.25M deal next summer. If the cap only goes up by $1M then the bottom of the roster gets depleted too much by that $7.25M cap hit for the Oilers to be a legit Stanley Cup contender IMO. Unless they're trading Barrie, Pulju and Yamo for good cheap players then it doesn't really work, and that won't happen unless those guys have really good seasons or unless draft picks/prospects are traded.

 

[McDNicks17]

Hmmmm.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Hmmmm.

The defense is b/c he's so good at even strength defense that he perma pins the opposing team in their zone and they never even have a chance to generate scoring chances to begin with. His offense was one of the best in the NHL at even strength last year and is just as good this year even if the points don't reflect it.

 

[Aerchon]

He is deferring on his shot too much right now, especially his wrister.

To my eye he is taken steps defensively but is not going to be winning any defensive awards this year anyways. He looks like his skating or his reactions/effort has improved. Has more urgency in his step but still sometimes gives up on some battle in his own zone.

We actually need him to start scoring, 14 games in and no goals is very surprising.

IMO marked improvement overall but still in progress and until he starts scoring again I suspect he will be slept on and rightfully so.

Which contrary to the above claims of a big pay day is probably really good for Holland to hopefully negotiate a very team friendly deal. I personally want a long term deal hopefully at 6 or under. Although I suppose if we are in win win mode now signing a short bridge deal improves our chances.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

He is deferring on his shot too much right now, especially his wrister.

To my eye he is taken steps defensively but is not going to be winning any defensive awards this year anyways. He looks like his skating or his reactions/effort has improved. Has more urgency in his step but still sometimes gives up on some battle in his own zone.

We actually need him to start scoring, 14 games in and no goals is very surprising.

IMO marked improvement overall but still in progress and until he starts scoring again I suspect he will be slept on and rightfully so.

Which contrary to the above claims of a big pay day is probably really good for Holland to hopefully negotiate a very team friendly deal. I personally want a long term deal hopefully at 6 or under. Although I suppose if we are in win win mode now signing a short bridge deal improves our chances.

He's really snakebitten right now. He has 32 shots in 14 games which is right around his pace from last year. I have no doubt the goals will start coming though with how good his shot arsenal is both versatility and power wise. He's clearly improved on a lot of things that he was criticized for last year. Defense still aint great but he's gone from "holy crap just convert to forward already" to "you still need some work on d". Physicality has improved and my guy is averaging 2 hits per game.

Also long-term contract for him please. He's only going to get better and better and the biggest scare of Connor and Leon's contracts ending soon isn't actually them leaving (I think they'll like 99% stay just b/c of each other), it's that their criminal robbery contracts are gonna be replaced with big fat ~15 million per year deals. Bouchard being on a steal of a cap hit in his late 20s will be huge for that.

 

[The Safe Play]

I was initially going to post this in the are you worried thread but didn't want to derail so thought this is the best spot.

It's interesting a lot of people think Bouchard is struggling so far. It probably depends on how much a person values +/- and on ice save percentage 5v5 (89% for Bouchard). He ranks first in all these categories except SA/60 (third behind Nurse and Ceci but a better %) on the Oilers among defence 5v5:

CF/60, CA/60, FF/60, FA/60, SF/60, xGF/60, xGA/60, SCF/60, SCA/60, HDCF/60, HDCA/60.

He's far and away limiting high danger chances and scoring chances more than any other D right now.

Comparitively, Barrie is one of the worst on the team in all these categories but currently is running an on ice save percentage of 92.4%.

At this point a heavy minute Nurse Bouchard pairing could go a long way to helping out the Oilers defence.

 

[MessierII]

I was initially going to post this in the are you worried thread but didn't want to derail so thought this is the best spot.

It's interesting a lot of people think Bouchard is struggling so far. It probably depends on how much a person values +/- and on ice save percentage 5v5 (89% for Bouchard). He ranks first in all these categories except SA/60 (third behind Nurse and Ceci but a better %) on the Oilers among defence 5v5:

CF/60, CA/60, FF/60, FA/60, SF/60, xGF/60, xGA/60, SCF/60, SCA/60, HDCF/60, HDCA/60.

He's far and away limiting high danger chances and scoring chances more than any other D right now.

Comparitively, Barrie is one of the worst on the team in all these categories but currently running a on ice save percentage of 92.4%.

At this point a heavy minute Nurse Bouchard pairing could go a long way to helping out the Oilers defence.

We’re out scoring the opposition 14-10 with Barrie on the ice at even strength and being out scored 15-8 with Bouch out there. That’s not bad luck it’s bad hockey. Scoring chance stats omit goals which skews everything.

 

[The Safe Play]

We’re out scoring the opposition 14-10 with Barrie on the ice at even strength and being out scored 15-8 with Bouch out there. That’s not bad luck it’s bad hockey. Scoring chance stats omit goals which skews everything.

Counter point, maybe Barrie is getting the saves and Bouchard isn't and players can't control how good or bad a goalie is behind them.

 

[MessierII]

Counter point, maybe Barrie is getting the saves and Bouchard isn't and players can't control how good or bad a goalie is behind them.

They can control what they’re giving up. Look at how many wacks Svechnikov got at that puck last night while Bouchard was standing there floating. Way too many moments like that for Bouchard. Barrie has played about as well as can be expected.

 

[The Safe Play]

They can control what they’re giving up. Look at how many wacks Svechnikov got at that puck last night while Bouchard was standing there floating. Way too many moments like that for Bouchard. Barrie has played about as well as can be expected.

Yeah, which is exactly the stats I posted. Bouchard is controlling what he is giving up, he's miles ahead of Barrie in limiting high danger chances, scoring chances and shots against this year. Never make decisions on small sample sizes it's how you get burned in this league.

 

[ImmuneEH]

I think if anyone is worried they should remember that he's a young defensemen with 117 games played playing on a team that is struggling with defense as a whole, and that the hallmark of his game is his offense.

I think it's reasonable to suggest that by 200 NHL games played there's not an unrealistic possibility he continues to develop into a D who flourishes offensively and is trusted to take care of business in his own end.

 

[MessierII]

Yeah, which is exactly the stats I posted. Bouchard is controlling what he is giving up, he's miles ahead of Barrie in limiting high danger chances, scoring chances and shots against this year. Never make decisions on small sample sizes it's how you get burned in this league.

The problem with the scoring chance stats is they omit goals which skews it. So Bouchards 15 even strength goals against aren’t counting as scoring chances which skews the numbers big this early.

 

[McDNicks17]

We’re out scoring the opposition 14-10 with Barrie on the ice at even strength and being out scored 15-8 with Bouch out there. That’s not bad luck it’s bad hockey. Scoring chance stats omit goals which skews everything.

Which site are you referring to?

All the big sites don't do that. Scoring chances are tallied regardless of the result.

 

[Stoneman89]

If Evan was one of the 7 dwarfs, I'm pretty sure he'd be Sleepy.