Player Discussion Evan Bouchard

[North Cole]

Just to add...

Because Bouchard could be an "all situations guy", which are among the most valuable assets in the league... or he could be a "one dimensional pp guy", one of the most undervalued assets in the league, you gotta wait for the turn of the final card.

If you have to pay him $10M and he's worth it, who cares?!

If he's dispensable, like one dimensional D-men often are... thank God we don't have him tied up at >$6M, preventing us from signing a true #1D.

This makes no sense to me. So because one could be 9.5M in 4 years and one could 5M in 4 years, your solution is to bridge for 4 years and sign one of those contracts, rather than...signing 5-6M for 7-8 years?

You're basically bridging the player such that on the low side you save 500K and the player regresses, which is not positive, but then forgoing to ability to save 3.5M on the high side if he continues to ascend? Why don't you just pay him extra 500K now and then when he's worth it you laugh because you are saving a shit load of money, a la Draisaitl...

I just want to edit to add - Carolina has literally no issues with what they did with Slavin - 5.3X7y which expires when he's....31. Dude is a stud providing massive value.

 

[popo]

Any reason why Yamo is still wearing #56? Wore #17 back in junior, obviously it's taken here, but would have figured he would have switched it by now...

I thought it was for WW2 Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto.
The name Isoroku translates to 56.

 

[bucks_oil]

This makes no sense to me. So because one could be 9.5M in 4 years and one could 5M in 4 years, your solution is to bridge for 4 years and sign one of those contracts, rather than...signing 5-6M for 7-8 years?

You're basically bridging the player such that on the low side you save 500K and the player regresses, which is not positive, but then forgoing to ability to save 3.5M on the high side if he continues to ascend? Why don't you just pay him extra 500K now and then when he's worth it you laugh because you are saving a shit load of money, a la Draisaitl...

I just want to edit to add - Carolina has literally no issues with what they did with Slavin - 5.3X7y which expires when he's....31. Dude is a stud providing massive value.

It’s pretty simple to me, given our cap situation. Context matters.

He’s got 4 RFA years. Those are worth $4M according to Dobson.

Then he’s got another ~8 years of prime tailing into “solid vet” status. Those are gonna be in the 10M territory (keeping the math simple) by the time he gets there.

His 4 years of RFA come exactly when we need them… During McDrai window. During post-CoV flat cap. During Klef/Lucic/Sekera dead cap. We don’t have a dime to spare. Any dime we have should be saved for the trade deadline since it multiplies to be a useful player.

So your options are:

1) Bridge at 4x4ish then 8 x nearly 10, vs
2) negotiate hard for 4 UFA years… what will they accept for that? $8M maybe? That’s what I’d hold out for as the agent. The math becomes (4x4) + (4x8) = 8 x $6m

Why am I paying Bouchard an extra $2m for the next four years… when I really need the money now?

In four years, we either have a cup in hand or we don’t. Bouchard is either a $10m guy or he’s not. Oilers have either resigned McDrai or they haven’t. And Bouchard will still have 6-8 years of prime left.

It’s a much easier decision to resign the guy for $10m then, or not, because we are forced to move in a post-McDrai direction.

A four year deal puts him up for renegotiation (with one year left on his contract) the year after Drai resigns and the same year McD is hopefully resigning. We reload with Bouch then or not, depending entirely on what makes most sense then.

And in the meanwhile we get a top pairing guy in “the window” for $4m and change.

This is not a “Nurse mistake”, I’m factoring in a huge future contract, but I need to trade on McDrai’s contracts NOW.

The “all in” move is to bridge Bouchard while we can and spend elsewhere.

 

[bobbythebrain]

It’s pretty simple to me, given our cap situation. Context matters.

He’s got 4 RFA years. Those are worth $4M according to Dobson.

Then he’s got another ~8 years of prime tailing into “solid vet” status. Those are gonna be in the 10M territory (keeping the math simple) by the time he gets there.

His 4 years of RFA come exactly when we need them… During McDrai window. During post-CoV flat cap. During Klef/Lucic/Sekera dead cap. We don’t have a dime to spare. Any dime we have should be saved for the trade deadline since it multiplies to be a useful player.

So your options are:

1) Bridge at 4x4ish then 8 x nearly 10, vs
2) negotiate hard for 4 UFA years… what will they accept for that? $8M maybe? That’s what I’d hold out for as the agent. The math becomes (4x4) + (4x8) = 8 x $6m

Why am I paying Bouchard an extra $2m for the next four years… when I really need the money now?

In four years, we either have a cup in hand or we don’t. Bouchard is either a $10m guy or he’s not. Oilers have either resigned McDrai or they haven’t. And Bouchard will still have 6-8 years of prime left.

It’s a much easier decision to resign the guy for $10m then, or not, because we are forced to move in a post-McDrai direction.

A four year deal puts him up for renegotiation (with one year left on his contract) the year after Drai resigns and the same year McD is hopefully resigning. We reload with Bouch then or not, depending entirely on what makes most sense then.

And in the meanwhile we get a top pairing guy in “the window” for $4m and change.

This is not a “Nurse mistake”, I’m factoring in a huge future contract, but I need to trade on McDrai’s contracts NOW.

The “all in” move is to bridge Bouchard while we can and spend elsewhere.

It's not your simple. He put up 43 points, 12 goals(lots of posts btw) without prime pp time. The natural progression is he gets more this year(20 goals is likely)unless they hold him back purposelly for Barrie, who is likely gone soon, , which is a kick in the teeth to him and his agent

You have this massive assumption that him/his agent are agreeing to his contract around McDrai, therefore he will sign whatever

All logic points to him naturally progressing this year, especially with Woody,Kane and an improved team, , so bridging him at what likely ends up around 5.5mil by defualt would be the height of dumb when you can get more years for a fraction more

BTW, Dobsons 4mil will not be a comparable next year. Cap goes up and Dobson was the #1 pp guy for half a season. If Bouch gets that he surpasses Dobson especially on the Oil #1 pp unit

 

[bucks_oil]

It's not your simple. He put up 43 points, 12 goals(lots of posts btw) without prime pp time. The natural progression is he gets more this year(20 goals is likely)unless they hold him back purposelly for Barrie, who is likely gone soon, , which is a kick in the teeth to him and his agent

You have this massive assumption that him/his agent are agreeing to his contract around McDrai, therefore he will sign whatever

All logic points to him naturally progressing this year, especially with Woody,Kane and an improved team, , so bridging him at what likely ends up around 5.5mil by defualt would be the height of dumb when you can get more years for a fraction more

BTW, Dobsons 4mil will not be a comparable next year. Cap goes up and Dobson was the #1 pp guy for half a season. If Bouch gets that he surpasses Dobson especially on the Oil #1 pp unit

You are making a lot of assumptions in here.

I completely agree that he and his agent are going to be pushing for as much as they can get, but they have less leverage over the RFA years than they do over the UFA years. That's fact.

You can say Dobson is not a comparable next year... ok... I accept that $4M is surprisingly low for a player of that caliber. But it IS still the closest comparable that we have now and it's a great lever for us in the Bouchard negotiation. Add some inflation if you wish.

My point is less about the specific numbers, and more about the relative increase in cap between RFA and UFA years purchased. Even if I accept that Bouch's camp is going to want $5.5 for RFA years, then how on earth can you claim that a longer contract will only be "a fraction more"?

If an RFA year of Bouch is going to be worth $5.5M, then a UFA year is going to be worth at least $8m or more. So do the math. $5.5 x 4 plus $8 x 4 is $54M over 8 years, or $6.75M.

That extra 1.25M becomes $2.5M at the deadline every year of our window, which is money that can be well spent to reinforce the lineup.

And if I'm Bouchard's agent, I'm not so sure that a 2-4 year bridge isn't the best thing for my client. As you rightly point out, he hasn't been given pp time and his numbers are going to climb dramatically. Playing on an offensive powerhouse for a few years before negotiating a MASSIVE deal, which the Oilers will be willing to pay is a surefire way for him to optimize his return.

PS: You've ad-hominem'd me twice now... what I'm arguing is the "height of dumb",... which is super lame. It makes you come across as an emotional fanboy, rather than someone interested in thoughtful debate. Get over yourself.

 

[CupofOil]

I don't know about B in this case.

I don't often agree with Broberg Speed, but is Bouchard a Pietrangelo or a... Barrie. I don't know yet. And one is worth $9.5M in four years, the other is worth $5-6M.

In both cases they contract during the next 4 years is where we have leverage. Both future Pietrangelo and future Barrie can make the same amount during that time ($4-5M) and not be overpaid no matter the trajectory. Moreover we save $2-3M in cap space during a time when we need it for the McDrai window.

I have very high hopes for Bouchard. I think he's going to play like a $7M guy during his bridge years... that's exactly why I'm going to bridge him. It makes me giddy to think of the value of that contract in the years it matters most (between now and McDrai being resigned or leaving).

Not directing this at you necessarily but why do so many assume that the McDrai window is only 3-4 years? They'll be in their late 20s when their contracts expire, it's not like the window for contention will be slammed shut the moment their contracts expire.

Point being, they'll still have to build a team when they enter their 3rd contract so you can't just say "screw 3-4 years down the road" as if the Oilers are going full scorched rebuild or something like that. You want to get a guy like Bouchard locked up as soon as you can before he really explodes offensively because I see no way he's not a 70+ point Dman when he's fully humming in a few years.

There's also the rising cap to take into consideration so say if they lock him up 7-8 years at 6-6.5m now, that 6-6.5m is going to take up a lesser percentage of the cap with every passing year and quite significantly so in the last half of that contract if quickly rising cap projections are to come to fruition so when McDrai are due for their next contract, you're going to be damn glad that you have Bouchard for another 3-4 years at what should be a team friendly contract by that time and, thus, helping to extend your competitive window beyond 3-4 years especially with other current prospects needing to get paid, assuming some pan out. If you bridge Bouchard now, you're going to be in a world of hurt when you have to pay McDrai with the new Bouchard contact which could be $9m+ by that time if he progresses and with some of the core players in the aging process by that time. Long story short, lock him up sooner than later. It'll pay dividends down the road even if you're giving more in the short term (and a Bouchard long term contract will be far from crippling in the short term).
I do see some logic in what you're saying btw with saving some cap in the next 3 years by bridging him (using Dobson as the comparable), I just think it's the smarter play to lock in your top young talent before they break out.

 

[CupofOil]

Pure nonsense. As per usual, you take a couple instances and turn them into a regular occurences.

Bouchard definitely got lit up on a few pinches, and one big one in the playoffs.

But compared to the 100s of fantastic and timely pinches he made all year, it was peanuts. Especially the dozens that lead to goals which went uncredited

So no I'm not trolling. I just don't go off the deep end with extremely bad takes like you. This new Bouchard tangent you're on is right on level with your Hyman goal sucks all the time.

Ironic that he's championing Barrie, a guy who consistently got beat with ill timed pinches on the PP (god, how many odd man breaks did the Oilers give up due to Barrie being out of position on the PP especially earlier in the season).

I actually liked Barrie's game quite a bit last season especially after Woodcroft took over but man did he have some brain cramps on the PP so I don't see the downgrade with Bouchard in that spot although for contract purposes, we'd be best served to wait until '23-'24 to see that come to fruition.

 

[bucks_oil]

Not directing this at you necessarily but why do so many assume that the McDrai window is only 3-4 years? They'll be in their late 20s when their contracts expire, it's not like the window for contention will be slammed shut the moment their contracts expire.

Point being, they'll still have to build a team when they enter their 3rd contract so you can't just say "screw 3-4 years down the road" as if the Oilers are going full scorched rebuild or something like that. You want to get a guy like Bouchard locked up as soon as you can before he really explodes offensively because I see no way he's not a 70+ point Dman when he's fully humming in a few years.

There's also the rising cap to take into consideration so say if they lock him up 7-8 years at 6-6.5m now, that 6-6.5m is going to take up a lesser percentage of the cap with every passing year and quite significantly so in the last half of that contract if quickly rising cap projections are to come to fruition so when McDrai are due for their next contract, you're going to be damn glad that you have Bouchard for another 3-4 years at what should be a team friendly contract by that time and, thus, helping to extend your competitive window beyond 3-4 years especially with other current prospects needing to get paid, assuming some pan out. If you bridge Bouchard now, you're going to be in a world of hurt when you have to pay McDrai with the new Bouchard contact which could be $9m+ by that time if he progresses and with some of the core players in the aging process by that time. Long story short, lock him up sooner than later. It'll pay dividends down the road even if you're giving more in the short term (and a Bouchard long term contract will be far from crippling in the short term).
I do see some logic in what you're saying btw with saving some cap in the next 3 years by bridging him (using Dobson as the comparable), I just think it's the smarter play to lock in your top young talent before they break out.

I understand your rationale, but it all depends on where and how you assess risk. If we weren't so cap constrained I'd normally agree with you.

Perhaps I'm biased by being an Oilers fan in the eighties, but I am very concerned about McDrai leaving. I think this past season really helped, and resigning Kane really helped, but the concern is: 1) they leave after these contracts or 2) their cap hit becomes closer to 30M rather than 20, hindering our ability to complement them.

So I'm willing to constrain the future a little bit because:
1) we need to win now
2) we have dead cap now
3) we want deadline cap space now (or at least in 2023/24 when Klef has cleared)
4) the cap is flat now, so every $ counts, and
5) the cap will go up, so the future problems may alleviate themselves...

I fully expect Bouchard to be worth $7 to $10M in 2026, but I think the difference between a bridged deal now (like Dobson) and an 8 year commitment, essentially buying 4 UFA years will substantial. My assumption is that it is at least $2-3M delta, which equates to $4-6M in available cap at the deadline.

Tactically, when I think about building a championship window, I think about identifying your primary core, doing as you say in committing to them with long term contracts, then packing in as much value around that core during their 24-28 year old seasons... that's where we are with McDrai. We need to surround them with ELC AND RFA value contracts now. Bouchard on an RFA bridge is like a cheat code we should take advantage of.

If the cap had been going up, I'd be 100% on board with a long term contract for Bouchard. If he's open to <$6M AAV, then by all means buy now!

But I don't see him accepting that... I'm thinking it's at least $7M for a long term deal. And thus I think it's a better bet to get him under $5M for a few years and then pay up with a $9M deal when the time comes. Much of our salary constraints will have worked themselves out by them.

 

[Arpeggio]

If Bouch gets a full season on the PP, he's going to score 20+ goals and 50+ points, guaranteed. I'm not sure a bridge contract will be reasonable at that point, because you're going to be paying over 6 million anyway, so may as well get him locked up long term. And he's not going to sign a bridge deal now, because him and his agent damn well know that as soon as he earns that spot on the PP, his numbers are going to skyrocket.

Bouchard's progression points to him being nothing less than a legit number one defenceman in the NHL. I think a lot of people are forgetting that this was basically his rookie season. 43 points in his first full season (without playing a ton of minutes on a historically good PP), he has size and he can skate. His defence needs work, but was still a +10 last season. And you know this matters in negotiations too, he had 9 points in 16 playoff games. If he adds a little bit to his defensive game, we're talking about a guy who could hit 60-70 points while playing first pairing minutes as a 24-25 year old.

I think it's because we haven't really seen it happen here, and have been burned by defencemen not turning out after promising starts, but a lot of people are underestimating what Bouchard is doing, and how big his contract is going to be.

 

[CupofOil]

I understand your rationale, but it all depends on where and how you assess risk. If we weren't so cap constrained I'd normally agree with you.

Perhaps I'm biased by being an Oilers fan in the eighties, but I am very concerned about McDrai leaving. I think this past season really helped, and resigning Kane really helped, but the concern is: 1) they leave after these contracts or 2) their cap hit becomes closer to 30M rather than 20, hindering our ability to complement them.

So I'm willing to constrain the future a little bit because:
1) we need to win now
2) we have dead cap now
3) we want deadline cap space now (or at least in 2023/24 when Klef has cleared)
4) the cap is flat now, so every $ counts, and
5) the cap will go up, so the future problems may alleviate themselves...

I fully expect Bouchard to be worth $7 to $10M in 2026, but I think the difference between a bridged deal now (like Dobson) and an 8 year commitment, essentially buying 4 UFA years will substantial. My assumption is that it is at least $2-3M delta, which equates to $4-6M in available cap at the deadline.

Tactically, when I think about building a championship window, I think about identifying your primary core, doing as you say in committing to them with long term contracts, then packing in as much value around that core during their 24-28 year old seasons... that's where we are with McDrai. We need to surround them with ELC AND RFA value contracts now. Bouchard on an RFA bridge is like a cheat code we should take advantage of.

If the cap had been going up, I'd be 100% on board with a long term contract for Bouchard. If he's open to <$6M AAV, then by all means buy now!

But I don't see him accepting that... I'm thinking it's at least $7M for a long term deal. And thus I think it's a better bet to get him under $5M for a few years and then pay up with a $9M deal when the time comes. Much of our salary constraints will have worked themselves out by them.

This is where we disagree. I don't see the cap constraints beyond this offseason. Of course things can change quickly but as of now, I don't see who outside of Bouchard is due for a big raise anytime soon, plus contracts like Barrie and Foegele are only 1 more year so that will be 7m+ coming off the books after next season, not to mention the dead money disappearing. All their important guys are locked in for the duration of the McDrai 2nd contract (McDrai, Kane, Hyman, RNH, Nurse, Ceci, Kulak, Campbell) so I can't see how a Bouchard long term contract (3-4m extra for the next 3-4 years) is really preventing them from building around the core. I'm not even taking into cap rise also which after the next 2 years could start to rise more substantially with the new TV deals, players paying back in escrow etc.
The Oilers are actually in a pretty favorable cap situation for the next 3-4 years.

As far as his contract demands are concerned, I don't see it going much above 6m on a 6+ year deal if he plays 20-21 minutes again next season and gets in the 45-50 point range. Once he takes over the top PP unit reigns and is more in the 23-24 minute range with 65-70+ points then we're talking a different ballgame but I don't see his role expanding that much next season in his last ELC year so I think they can get him at reasonable dollars long term if he's willing. If he'd rather bet on himself like Dobson and take a bridge to get the much bigger payday later then there's nothing Holland can do but if he's willing to sign long term now, I think now is the time to do it.

 

[bobbythebrain]

You are making a lot of assumptions in here.

I completely agree that he and his agent are going to be pushing for as much as they can get, but they have less leverage over the RFA years than they do over the UFA years. That's fact.

You can say Dobson is not a comparable next year... ok... I accept that $4M is surprisingly low for a player of that caliber. But it IS still the closest comparable that we have now and it's a great lever for us in the Bouchard negotiation. Add some inflation if you wish.

My point is less about the specific numbers, and more about the relative increase in cap between RFA and UFA years purchased. Even if I accept that Bouch's camp is going to want $5.5 for RFA years, then how on earth can you claim that a longer contract will only be "a fraction more"?

If an RFA year of Bouch is going to be worth $5.5M, then a UFA year is going to be worth at least $8m or more. So do the math. $5.5 x 4 plus $8 x 4 is $54M over 8 years, or $6.75M.

That extra 1.25M becomes $2.5M at the deadline every year of our window, which is money that can be well spent to reinforce the lineup.

And if I'm Bouchard's agent, I'm not so sure that a 2-4 year bridge isn't the best thing for my client. As you rightly point out, he hasn't been given pp time and his numbers are going to climb dramatically. Playing on an offensive powerhouse for a few years before negotiating a MASSIVE deal, which the Oilers will be willing to pay is a surefire way for him to optimize his return.

PS: You've ad-hominem'd me twice now... what I'm arguing is the "height of dumb",... which is super lame. It makes you come across as an emotional fanboy, rather than someone interested in thoughtful debate. Get over yourself.

But you don't debate. You lay your ill represented theory like gospel

McDrai will leave in a 3 years. Oil will be cap strapped in 2 years. And the doozy, that Bouch will be one of the highest paid dmen in the NHL if it's not a bridge that you suggest

For Bouch to get 8+ like you suggest, his defensive game would have to improve drastically along with more offensive output. That ain't happening over a course of another year. The 5.5mil I suggested(based on improved offense) would likely shoot to a 7x7 over an extended period

For Bouch to get over 8mil he would literally need to get some Norris nods this year

Maybe it's you who needs to get over your worst case scenario logic

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

The issue with signing Bouchard to a long term 5-6 million dollar deal isn't with the gameplay. I have absolutely no doubt he'll be able to live up to that kind of contract, he's already one of the most talented offensive players in the league between his stretch passes, ability to generate sustained offense, and his wicked shot arsenal and put up some of the best offensive metrics in the league, and will only get better. If the footspeed and defense can come along he could potentially be a legit top pairing dman.

The issue is the player has to accept, and if Bouchard is as confident in himself as I am in him, he should take a bridge deal and get paid all the money ever in 3 years. If I'm Evan Bouchard and my agent comes to me with a 8 year 5 million dollar deal, I'm firing him on the spot.

 

[bucks_oil]

But you don't debate. You lay your ill represented theory like gospel

What on earth are you talking about? Laying out my logic is not "ill represented theory like gospel". It's letting you know where I'm coming from so that you can use that as a basis to debate.

Jeezus... I've had positive interactions (despite disagreeing) with North Cole and CupofOil in this thread, but right from the start, you've been super aggressive... and that's on you. Chill out.

McDrai will leave in a 3 years. Oil will be cap strapped in 2 years. And the doozy, that Bouch will be one of the highest paid dmen in the NHL if it's not a bridge that you suggest

McDrai leaving: I didn't say McDrai will leave in three years. I said it is a risk that if I were Holland I would be concerned about and manage against. I also said if they stay their cap hit will likely be higher, which limits our ability to build around them.

Oilers capped in two years: I said the Oilers were cap strapped NOW and that for the remaining McDrai present window we should do all that we can to maintain cap space so that we can spend it on assets to complement them at each deadline.

Bouch highest paid: I played out two scenarios that could come as a consequence to a bridge (ie it could play out either way). One was that if he doesn't improve his D, he'll be paid like a one dimensional guy. Don't you remember? It certainly triggered you at the time... see your post #142. The other is that he does improve his defense, in which case we'd be happy and resign him, but yes, it would be for a lot. So no, I'm not saying Bouch will be one of the highest paid Men if we don't bridge. I'm not sure where you got that from. I'm saying that there is a risk that he becomes one of the highest paid if we do bridge him, but it's a risk I'm willing to take if we like the terms of a bridge and get the benefit during the (1st) McDrai window.

For Bouch to get 8+ like you suggest, his defensive game would have to improve drastically along with more offensive output. That ain't happening over a course of another year. The 5.5mil I suggested(based on improved offense) would likely shoot to a 7x7 over an extended period

I agree that Bouch's offensive numbers are likely to jump this year. I also agree that Bouch isn't going to become a defensive stalwart over one year. And that's part of my argument to bridge.

Remember when Nurse's 5v5 offense jumped to 40 points and he wanted $7M? That's where I got the number of $8M for Bouch (essentially $7M with inflation). That's sorta what I'd expect him to ask for next summer for a longer term contract (assuming his offense jumps).

In that case, I'd definitely bridge and deal with the consequences later.

Maybe it's you who needs to get over your worst case scenario logic

Again... I was playing out best-case/worst-case following a bridge. It's a common management tool as you are assessing risk/benefit of your decision points. If that triggers you, again... it's on you.

 

[bucks_oil]

This is where we disagree. I don't see the cap constraints beyond this offseason. Of course things can change quickly but as of now, I don't see who outside of Bouchard is due for a big raise anytime soon, plus contracts like Barrie and Foegele are only 1 more year so that will be 7m+ coming off the books after next season, not to mention the dead money disappearing. All their important guys are locked in for the duration of the McDrai 2nd contract (McDrai, Kane, Hyman, RNH, Nurse, Ceci, Kulak, Campbell) so I can't see how a Bouchard long term contract (3-4m extra for the next 3-4 years) is really preventing them from building around the core. I'm not even taking into cap rise also which after the next 2 years could start to rise more substantially with the new TV deals, players paying back in escrow etc.
The Oilers are actually in a pretty favorable cap situation for the next 3-4 years.

As far as his contract demands are concerned, I don't see it going much above 6m on a 6+ year deal if he plays 20-21 minutes again next season and gets in the 45-50 point range. Once he takes over the top PP unit reigns and is more in the 23-24 minute range with 65-70+ points then we're talking a different ballgame but I don't see his role expanding that much next season in his last ELC year so I think they can get him at reasonable dollars long term if he's willing. If he'd rather bet on himself like Dobson and take a bridge to get the much bigger payday later then there's nothing Holland can do but if he's willing to sign long term now, I think now is the time to do it.

On the cap: true, the cap constraints start to relieve very quickly after this year, but... we still have a choice where to spend that cap and I'm of the opinion that we're still a solid stay at home D and a solid defensive 3C away from a cup. Both of those can be rented annually, but will likely have 3-5M cap hits that we need to fit in at the deadline. So that pushes me to be very cautious with the available cap which starts only next year... that's the first year we'll be in strong position to add at the deadline. It's also the deadline prior to Drai's UFA -1 season. So it's an important year to be all-in so that we improve our chances of resigning Drai that summer rather than heading into 24-25 with a big question mark hanging on our heads

On Bouch's demands: this is where we differ. If he gets 45-50 and is willing to sign under $6M, 100% let's go for it. I'm just expecting him to ask for more in that scenario. Is that optimistic or pessimistic? I don't know, but I expect him to do well this year, thus I expect the long-term ask to be $7M plus depending on how well he does. Anything above $6M makes me uncomfortable with the cap, so thus I'd be looking at a bridge.

If he's willing to sign now: yes, agree... ideal time for us. Not ideal time for him, IMO. I assume that's why he isn't signed already.

 

[bucks_oil]

The issue with signing Bouchard to a long term 5-6 million dollar deal isn't with the gameplay. I have absolutely no doubt he'll be able to live up to that kind of contract, he's already one of the most talented offensive players in the league between his stretch passes, ability to generate sustained offense, and his wicked shot arsenal and put up some of the best offensive metrics in the league, and will only get better. If the footspeed and defense can come along he could potentially be a legit top pairing dman.

The issue is the player has to accept, and if Bouchard is as confident in himself as I am in him, he should take a bridge deal and get paid all the money ever in 3 years. If I'm Evan Bouchard and my agent comes to me with a 8 year 5 million dollar deal, I'm firing him on the spot.

This is exactly where I'm at.

If <$6M long term is on the table, we of course snap it up. I just don't see that as a realistic contract from the Bouchard camp.

I also think that come next summer Holland and Bouchard may see eye to eye on a long term value, but Holland may still prefer the short term advantages of a bridge.

It's not a value-judgement on Bouchard, it's just a tactical thing. Early in your rebuild you want to lock in your franchise guys as RFAs. Later in your rebuild, you might prefer to have a few bridge contracts (and ELC's of course) so that you can ice a stronger team.

The 2nd Nurse bridge proved to be a mistake, but it was given for entirely different reasons. We weren't a competitive team and remember that we were stuck with Haas and Nymark's of the world just to fill out a roster. We simply couldn't afford $7M.

But not all bridges are equal.

 

[Fourier]

Assuming another step forward...Would Bouchard and the team be willing to take a risk? The key roadblock for the Oilers with him is next year's cap. Could they essentially negotiate a 9 year deal? One year at $3M followed by 8 years at $7M to be filed on Jan 1, 2024.

 

[North Cole]

It’s pretty simple to me, given our cap situation. Context matters.

He’s got 4 RFA years. Those are worth $4M according to Dobson.

Then he’s got another ~8 years of prime tailing into “solid vet” status. Those are gonna be in the 10M territory (keeping the math simple) by the time he gets there.

His 4 years of RFA come exactly when we need them… During McDrai window. During post-CoV flat cap. During Klef/Lucic/Sekera dead cap. We don’t have a dime to spare. Any dime we have should be saved for the trade deadline since it multiplies to be a useful player.

So your options are:

1) Bridge at 4x4ish then 8 x nearly 10, vs
2) negotiate hard for 4 UFA years… what will they accept for that? $8M maybe? That’s what I’d hold out for as the agent. The math becomes (4x4) + (4x8) = 8 x $6m

Why am I paying Bouchard an extra $2m for the next four years… when I really need the money now?

In four years, we either have a cup in hand or we don’t. Bouchard is either a $10m guy or he’s not. Oilers have either resigned McDrai or they haven’t. And Bouchard will still have 6-8 years of prime left.

It’s a much easier decision to resign the guy for $10m then, or not, because we are forced to move in a post-McDrai direction.

A four year deal puts him up for renegotiation (with one year left on his contract) the year after Drai resigns and the same year McD is hopefully resigning. We reload with Bouch then or not, depending entirely on what makes most sense then.

And in the meanwhile we get a top pairing guy in “the window” for $4m and change.

This is not a “Nurse mistake”, I’m factoring in a huge future contract, but I need to trade on McDrai’s contracts NOW.

The “all in” move is to bridge Bouchard while we can and spend elsewhere.

Didn't see your reply yesterday sorry.

I disagree that it would cost 64M to get Bouchard on an 8 year contract, so that basically makes the position a non-starter for me. I don't see why he would cost 3M more than Slavin at the same point in time. Slavin signed his contract coming off 2 seasons where he was top 20 in Norris, had back to back 30 point campaigns which is slightly lower than the 43 Bouchard put up this year, but Slavin is quite frankly - miles ahead defensively. Bouchard is currently getting zero Norris votes.

Why is it much easier to resign Bouch heading into post-Mcdrai era (assuming they up and leave)? If the assumption is that we have lost two top 5 players in the league and then go to sign our 1D, I think that's the opposite. Dude has no reason to stay unless you Erik Karlsson him with the brinks truck.

Your entire argument is predicated on the idea that we get him for as cheap as possible now to maximize this cup window, under the assumption that we lose McDrai, so signing him later doesn't matter because we have $20M of forward money to allocate to his contract... That's not a good outlook. Why don't you sign him to a valuable long term contract and then get those guys resigned so that we can have another cup window? At least this way if they leave we don't have to fight tooth and nail to bring Bouch back because the forward group is gutted. The cup window is pretty easily extended if we get our two best players back.

Your scenario seems like a disaster because you will inevitably be peddling to get everyone back when it's time to reup, as you obviously dont want to lose McDrai, but suddenly we are paying:
McDavid - 13M+
Drai - 11M+
Nurse - 9.25M
Bouch - 10M (per your idea)

How do we ice a competitive roster? That's like a slightly more balanced Toronto assuming Bouchard gets good at D. Much rather just pay Bouch 8x6M or 7x6M, whatever the Slavin cap% is when he signed (since the cap is higher) and then resign the other guys. Right now the 2M extra you don't want to give Bouch is basically Foegele. If you ask me, would I rather have Bouch at (4x4M + 8*10M + Foegele) VS Bouch at (8*6M - Foegele + 4 years of Bouch's retirement contract in 8 years), the answer is quite easily the second one.

EDIT - Slavin contract is 5.91M in todays cap (7.06% X 84.5M). What exactly is the precedent that Bouchard gets 8M? That's 1M less than Makar... I mean I like Bocuhard but he is not a defense man who is $1M behind Makar in value, though we buy an extra 2 UFA years, so I could see that raise the value a little, but not from 5.9M to 8M.

 

[bucks_oil]

Didn't see your reply yesterday sorry.

I disagree that it would cost 64M to get Bouchard on an 8 year contract, so that basically makes the position a non-starter for me. I don't see why he would cost 3M more than Slavin at the same point in time. Slavin signed his contract coming off 2 seasons where he was top 20 in Norris, had back to back 30 point campaigns which is slightly lower than the 43 Bouchard put up this year, but Slavin is quite frankly - miles ahead defensively. Bouchard is currently getting zero Norris votes.

Why is it much easier to resign Bouch heading into post-Mcdrai era (assuming they up and leave)? If the assumption is that we have lost two top 5 players in the league and then go to sign our 1D, I think that's the opposite. Dude has no reason to stay unless you Erik Karlsson him with the brinks truck.

Your entire argument is predicated on the idea that we get him for as cheap as possible now to maximize this cup window, under the assumption that we lose McDrai, so signing him later doesn't matter because we have $20M of forward money to allocate to his contract... That's not a good outlook. Why don't you sign him to a valuable long term contract and then get those guys resigned so that we can have another cup window? At least this way if they leave we don't have to fight tooth and nail to bring Bouch back because the forward group is gutted. The cup window is pretty easily extended if we get our two best players back.

Your scenario seems like a disaster because you will inevitably be peddling to get everyone back when it's time to reup, as you obviously dont want to lose McDrai, but suddenly we are paying:
McDavid - 13M+
Drai - 11M+
Nurse - 9.25M
Bouch - 10M (per your idea)

How do we ice a competitive roster? That's like a slightly more balanced Toronto assuming Bouchard gets good at D. Much rather just pay Bouch 8x6M or 7x6M, whatever the Slavin cap% is when he signed (since the cap is higher) and then resign the other guys. Right now the 2M extra you don't want to give Bouch is basically Foegele. If you ask me, would I rather have Bouch at (4x4M + 8*10M + Foegele) VS Bouch at (8*6M - Foegele + 4 years of Bouch's retirement contract in 8 years), the answer is quite easily the second one.

EDIT - Slavin contract is 5.91M in todays cap (7.06% X 84.5M). What exactly is the precedent that Bouchard gets 8M? That's 1M less than Makar... I mean I like Bocuhard but he is not a defense man who is $1M behind Makar in value, though we buy an extra 2 UFA years, so I could see that raise the value a little, but not from 5.9M to 8M.

Thanks for the reply. Let me clarify.

1) I don't know where the $64M came from. The math I assumed in the post you quoted was ($4M x 4) + ($8M x 4) = $48M or $6M cap on an 8 year deal if signed today. If we can sign him for less, let's go! But my expectation is that it takes at least $6M aav to get it done now, and that's sorta my tipping point toward preferring a bridge (assuming its close to Dobson).

2) You might have come up with $64M in my discussion with bobbythebrain, he was arguing a bridge is still $5.5M. I think that is high, but my counter was that if a bridge is that high, then the longer term is probably closer to $8. Apologies for that confusion... I don't believe that's actually the case. He hasn't earned $8M on a long term deal, or $5.5M on a bridge either.

3) You are right, if McDrai leave, it isn't easier to resign him.... and we may want to blow it up. We'll know in three summers with Draisaitl already up and McD pending. In either case he'd have significant trade value whether with two years left on his $4M x 4 bridge or $6M+ x 8 (obviously the latter is a bit more value, but the number of suitors may increase with $4M cap based on their own situations)

4) Part of my argument to go 4 years bridge then 8 years is so that we have him for 12 years and the 4 cheap ones come at the front end when he's in his prime (and we can use the money). You could do 8 now and 4 years later, but that puts the cheaper contract at the end when he's declining and the cap is much higher. Better to have the cheap years up front both from a value and a cap perspective.

5) We agree the cup window is defined by two guys. If we resign them, we can also resign Bouch in four or five years, as the cap will be much higher, the dead-cap gone and he's either super worth it or definitely not. There's a lot more certainty then. When I say certainty, I'm more worried about the team situation than Bouch.

6) Slavin's contract is a great comparable, thanks. His 7.07% would be 5.76M. That's about my limit. After $6M I prefer a bridge with a $4 in front of the number and all of the advantages it brings during window #1.

7) How do we resign Bouch in 5 years (after a 4 year bridge)? Well if the cap goes back to 5% increase per year after next season, we'll be at 99M, plenty of space.

PS: I know I'm coming across quite pessimistic about McDrai leaving. I'm not actually that pessimistic, but if I'm GM, it's the number one thing I'm managing against. I would prioritize all efforts to bring a cup in the next 3 years. The 2nd window opens when the 2nd window opens.

 

[North Cole]

Thanks for the reply. Let me clarify.

1) I don't know where the $64M came from. The math I assumed in the post you quoted was ($4M x 4) + ($8M x 4) = $48M or $6M cap on an 8 year deal if signed today. If we can sign him for less, let's go! But my expectation is that it takes at least $6M aav to get it done now, and that's sorta my tipping point toward preferring a bridge (assuming its close to Dobson).

2) You might have come up with $64M in my discussion with bobbythebrain, he was arguing a bridge is still $5.5M. I think that is high, but my counter was that if a bridge is that high, then the longer term is probably closer to $8. Apologies for that confusion... I don't believe that's actually the case. He hasn't earned $8M on a long term deal, or $5.5M on a bridge either.

3) You are right, if McDrai leave, it isn't easier to resign him.... and we may want to blow it up. We'll know in three summers with Draisaitl already up and McD pending. In either case he'd have significant trade value whether with two years left on his $4M x 4 bridge or $6M+ x 8 (obviously the latter is a bit more value, but the number of suitors may increase with $4M cap based on their own situations)

4) Part of my argument to go 4 years bridge then 8 years is so that we have him for 12 years and the 4 cheap ones come at the front end when he's in his prime (and we can use the money). You could do 8 now and 4 years later, but that puts the cheaper contract at the end when he's declining and the cap is much higher. Better to have the cheap years up front both from a value and a cap perspective.

5) We agree the cup window is defined by two guys. If we resign them, we can also resign Bouch in four or five years, as the cap will be much higher, the dead-cap gone and he's either super worth it or definitely not. There's a lot more certainty then. When I say certainty, I'm more worried about the team situation than Bouch.

6) Slavin's contract is a great comparable, thanks. His 7.07% would be 5.76M. That's about my limit. After $6M I prefer a bridge with a $4 in front of the number and all of the advantages it brings during window #1.

7) How do we resign Bouch in 5 years (after a 4 year bridge)? Well if the cap goes back to 5% increase per year after next season, we'll be at 99M, plenty of space.

PS: I know I'm coming across quite pessimistic about McDrai leaving. I'm not actually that pessimistic, but if I'm GM, it's the number one thing I'm managing against. I would prioritize all efforts to bring a cup in the next 3 years. The 2nd window opens when the 2nd window opens.

I got the 64M from your post that I quoted because I misread what you meant. I thought when you said that they hold out for 8M, that would be over the 8 year contract = 64M, not that they want 8M for the 4 UFA years, so that's my misunderstanding. Apologies.

I agree that the bridge would be in the Barrie range, or slightly under. I expect we won't get the Slavin deal and would have to pay slightly more since it's Holland but I would be okay with 8X6 rather than 4X4 and 8X10. As you say in #7, if the cap goes up we can afford him but if we just pay the 6M now for 8 years we can also afford the extra 2M that you lose by not bridging and then you can use the extra cap room on other stuff rather than solely on his raise at UFA.

I just don't know if we can be successful with McDrai and our top 2 D at 40M+ and who knows what we need to pay Skinner when Campbell is done. I just think long term, it's easier for us to move out Foegele and allocate that 2M to Bouch over the next 8 years, then use cap appreciation to fill out other roles and pay for raises for other guys - than it is to fit Bouch in at 10M 4 years from now when we have other young guys that will need long term contracts - Broberg/Yamo/Pool/Holloway/Skinner + maybe Fabio XB or whoever else we draft (excluding guys that have moved on).

Best bet for me is to sort out Bouchard then that gives you an idea of what to do with the other guys while they develop. Last thing you want to do is have Broberg break out, bridge him, then get the Bouch UFA 10M done while Broberg is expiring, Mcdavid is expiring, Kane is expiring, Drai is resigned to big money, Nurse is at 9M, Skinner needs reupping and Campbell has 1 year left, RNH/Hyman have full NMC. That's a lot of stuff to untangle and the collection of older guys that have immunity makes it inflexible IMO.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The issue with signing Bouchard to a long term 5-6 million dollar deal isn't with the gameplay. I have absolutely no doubt he'll be able to live up to that kind of contract, he's already one of the most talented offensive players in the league between his stretch passes, ability to generate sustained offense, and his wicked shot arsenal and put up some of the best offensive metrics in the league, and will only get better. If the footspeed and defense can come along he could potentially be a legit top pairing dman.

The issue is the player has to accept, and if Bouchard is as confident in himself as I am in him, he should take a bridge deal and get paid all the money ever in 3 years. If I'm Evan Bouchard and my agent comes to me with a 8 year 5 million dollar deal, I'm firing him on the spot.

If I'm Bouchard and I can get a 7-8 year deal at $6 million AAV right now and it's paid mostly or all in signing bonuses (so that if there is a lock out he still gets paid) I take that and run. Yes he could make more if he stays healthy and has a big season or two, but injuries are always a very real possibility and he is young enough that if he stays healthy he could get another big payday after this extension would expire. $42-$48 million guaranteed is nothing to scoff at.

 

[Mr Positive]

if you think that we should bridge Bouchard just to maximize this 4 year window, that only makes sense if you think that McDavid and Draisaitl will leave no matter what.

There is this argument that we need to win a cup in this window, and that's what we need to convince them to stay. The truth is rarely so easy. Yes, we need to win (maybe not the cup but close to it), but we ALSO have to look like we will CONTINUE to win. If those 4 years are up and we did win the cup, or even cups, but it looks like the team will implode in 2 years with the aging expensive veterans and impending massive raises on guys like Bouchard, they will leave.

I'm not saying we NEED to go 8 years with Bouchard no matter what the cost. I'm saying that we need to find a balance between affordability and contract length. Whatever the cost of a bridge deal is, see how many more years an extra 2 million AAV gets us. We must be able to do that.

But... if you do think that this is it, and no matter what Draisaitl and McDavid will leave, then bridge Bouchard. Get our cup now because this is our only shot at it. If those two are gone, then overpaying Bouchard hardly matters I don't believe in this idea (that McDrai will leave no matter what), but I do think it is a valid argument. It's the only justification I can see to bridge Bouchard that I see though.

 

[walktheboulavard]

if you think that we should bridge Bouchard just to maximize this 4 year window, that only makes sense if you think that McDavid and Draisaitl will leave no matter what.

There is this argument that we need to win a cup in this window, and that's what we need to convince them to stay. The truth is rarely so easy. Yes, we need to win (maybe not the cup but close to it), but we ALSO have to look like we will CONTINUE to win. If those 4 years are up and we did win the cup, or even cups, but it looks like the team will implode in 2 years with the aging expensive veterans and impending massive raises on guys like Bouchard, they will leave.

I'm not saying we NEED to go 8 years with Bouchard no matter what the cost. I'm saying that we need to find a balance between affordability and contract length. Whatever the cost of a bridge deal is, see how many more years an extra 2 million AAV gets us. We must be able to do that.

But... if you do think that this is it, and no matter what Draisaitl and McDavid will leave, then bridge Bouchard. Get our cup now because this is our only shot at it. If those two are gone, then overpaying Bouchard hardly matters I don't believe in this idea (that McDrai will leave no matter what), but I do think it is a valid argument. It's the only justification I can see to bridge Bouchard that I see though.

I don't get it either. We're are they going to go? Conor is Canadian (he's going to the Maple Leafs because Richmond Hill is part of the GTA?) and Leon is German, what's he going to do, run to the DEL?

This isn't the NBA were going from Columbus to LA will be conducive to building your brand. Gaudreau and Tkachuk left because they could be in their home country and still play in the NHL, there were a lot of extenuating circumstances that went into their decisions.

Bouchard is a excellent defenseman at 22 years old, lock him up for the long term.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I’d make theee 3 contract offers and tell him pick one:

4x4
6x5.5
8x6.25

I’m guessing he’d bet on himself and go 4x4 due to the supporting cast and potential for big numbers, which I’m fine with. Gives him one more year at 4 after the McDrai extensions. Then we have a tough decision to make.

 

[Mr Positive]

I’d make theee 3 contract offers and tell him pick one:

4x4
6x5.5
8x6.25

I’m guessing he’d bet on himself and go 4x4 due to the supporting cast and potential for big numbers, which I’m fine with. Gives him one more year at 4 after the McDrai extensions. Then we have a tough decision to make.

Its not really a decision. McDrai will cost a lot. Bouchard would be gone after the 4 years, period. The only thing that could save us is that huge cap jump people talk about. The longer Bouchards contract, the easier it will be to re sign him after

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Its not really a decision. McDrai will cost a lot. Bouchard would be gone after the 4 years, period. The only thing that could save us is that huge cap jump people talk about. The longer Bouchards contract, the easier it will be to re sign him after

Not going to be huge cap jump. About a mil a year.