Player Discussion Evan Bouchard

[bucks_oil]

Its not really a decision. McDrai will cost a lot. Bouchard would be gone after the 4 years, period. The only thing that could save us is that huge cap jump people talk about. The longer Bouchards contract, the easier it will be to re sign him after

Not really as dire as you make it sound.

(with thanks to North Cole/CupofOil) I headed over to capfriendly, and a four year bridge for Bouchard would expire summer of 2027. Edmonton Oilers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

We have almost a blank slate. Let's assume McDrai are resigned (because if they aren't no need to do anything other than blow it up, imo).

We will have only:

Forwards:
McD
Drai
Hyman
Hopkins

Defense:
Nurse

Everything else is in our control. Zero dead cap, and assuming the above comes in at $45M give or take, then you've got... rough estimate assuming 2% growth per year, $45M to spend on 17 roster positions. Assume a couple of guys on ELCs, a couple of prominent forwards on RFA deals, a couple of replacement level forwards on the 4th line and all of a sudden your roster is pretty flexible:

Hyman ($5M) McD (13M) RFA ($3M)
RNH ($5M) Drai ($12M) UFA ($7M)
ELC ($1M) RFA/UFA ($4M) RFA ($3M)
ELC ($1M) Scrub2 ($1M) Scrub3 ($.75M)

Nurse (9.25) Bouchard ($8M)
ELC ($1M) RFA/UFA ($6M)
ELC ($1M) UFA ($1M)

Goalie 1 ($6M)
Goalie 2 ($1M)

Extra 1 ($1M), Extra 2 ($1M)

That's a workable lineup, but it definitely makes you realize why Holland is reluctant to give up any picks just now... useful skill on ELC becomes mandatory when you've got two of the best players in the game.

The biggest potential cost-savings in there would be having a guy like Fantti become a true #1 and still being on his ELC. If we finally do have a guy with true starter potential, I hope they vet it fully in the AHL for two seasons as a starter, then bring him up during Campbell's final contract year.

 

[bucks_oil]

Not going to be huge cap jump. About a mil a year.

...plus $4M in dead cap coming off the books well before we'd need to resign Bouch.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Small sample size obviously but so far this season Bouchard has thrown 16 hits and had 5 takeaways, both which would put him top 50 in the NHL. Obviously still needs a lot of work defensively in terms of positioning/needs to cut down on the giveaways but you can clearly see the extra work he's put in to change his playstyle and try to be more relevant defensively both in terms of physicality and anticipation. The Bouch bombs and tape to tape stretch passes are gonna rack up the point totals too. This kid (old man?) is gonna be a stud.

 

[GOilers88]

Small sample size obviously but so far this season Bouchard has thrown 16 hits and had 5 takeaways, both which would put him top 50 in the NHL. Obviously still needs a lot of work defensively in terms of positioning/needs to cut down on the giveaways but you can clearly see the extra work he's put in to change his playstyle and try to be more relevant defensively both in terms of physicality and anticipation. The Bouch bombs and tape to tape stretch passes are gonna rack up the point totals too. This kid (old man?) is gonna be a stud.

Most of his fantasy points for me have been from hits. Had to do a double take lol

 

[MessierII]

Brilliant game from him tonight. That’s what I pictured Bouchard being one day. He was fantastic.

 

[syz]

He was throwing darts all night, even in a terrible 1st period.

 

[bucks_oil]

He was throwing darts all night, even in a terrible 1st period.

He’s going to be an absolute stud. Offensive hockey sense off the chart, he will adjust his risk reward as he goes.

And with 2 points in 6 games I’m still liking a 3 year bridge to keep the AAV as low as possible during the first term (thinking positively) of McDrai. Every million counts now and then after the bridge a long term bet on a then 26 year old student of the game is still great timing for D.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

He was throwing darts all night, even in a terrible 1st period.

His pass on the hyman goal was nuts, instead of just putting it up the boards, puts it through a pens players skate and right on the tape of Hyman.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

He’s going to be an absolute stud. Offensive hockey sense off the chart, he will adjust his risk reward as he goes.

And with 2 points in 6 games I’m still liking a 3 year bridge to keep the AAV as low as possible during the first term (thinking positively) of McDrai. Every million counts now and then after the bridge a long term bet on a then 26 year old student of the game is still great timing for D.

Ooof no.

Lesson should be learned. You don't bridge players like Bouch. He's not in the JP/Yama category.

Max extension for as cheap as possible. We already made that mistake with Nurse.

 

[bucks_oil]

Ooof no.

Lesson should be learned. You don't bridge players like Bouch. He's not in the JP/Yama category.

Max extension for as cheap as possible. We already made that mistake with Nurse.

My assumption is that there is no "max extension that is as cheap as possible". If we could get it done at $6M absolutely, but I don't see that likely.

And your cap tactics should have more to do with your team tactics than they do with an individual player (unless they are the franchise). If a bridge is what allows us to be >$2M (difference between bridge and long term) more competitive in the first term of McDrai, then you need to be open to exploring it.

Also, with D,... if you do it right (we didn't do it right with Nurse, we bridged him TWICE), then you can lock them up in prime more efficiently, since their prime is later (age 26 to 32 or 34).

Assumed Option A: Long term now at 8 x $7.5M (that's $1.5M less than Makar last summer), then at 31 you are backed into the corner (he'll still be prime) with another 6 x $6.5M = 95M/14 years and the expensive years were front loaded right when you needed the cap most.

Assumed Option B: Three year bridge at 3 x $5M, then he's 26, cap risen, cup woneth, McDrai resigned and you can go 8 x $9M until he's 34. After that the retirement contract (if any is required/desired) is way down in 2 or 3 x $3M category. That's $96M over the same 14 years, but we get the cap savings now when we need them and it is our option to pay him $9M in three years when its fair-market-value and we don't care (as much) about cap.

Given how it matches the team needs, I go with Option B. I do not add any risk to losing McDrai.

PS: Have you considered how well the Klefbom bridge would have worked if he'd been healthy? He'd have been our #1D the last two years for $4.1M. Maybe Nurse wouldn't have 'earned' his $9M?

 

[bobbythebrain]

My assumption is that there is no "max extension that is as cheap as possible". If we could get it done at $6M absolutely, but I don't see that likely.

And your cap tactics should have more to do with your team tactics than they do with an individual player (unless they are the franchise). If a bridge is what allows us to be >$2M (difference between bridge and long term) more competitive in the first term of McDrai, then you need to be open to exploring it.

Also, with D,... if you do it right (we didn't do it right with Nurse, we bridged him TWICE), then you can lock them up in prime more efficiently, since their prime is later (age 26 to 32 or 34).

Assumed Option A: Long term now at 8 x $7.5M (that's $1.5M less than Makar last summer), then at 31 you are backed into the corner (he'll still be prime) with another 6 x $6.5M = 95M/14 years and the expensive years were front loaded right when you needed the cap most.

Assumed Option B: Three year bridge at 3 x $5M, then he's 26, cap risen, cup woneth, McDrai resigned and you can go 8 x $9M until he's 34. After that the retirement contract (if any is required/desired) is way down in 2 or 3 x $3M category. That's $96M over the same 14 years, but we get the cap savings now when we need them and it is our option to pay him $9M in three years when its fair-market-value and we don't care (as much) about cap.

Given how it matches the team needs, I go with Option B. I do not add any risk to losing McDrai.

PS: Have you considered how well the Klefbom bridge would have worked if he'd been healthy? He'd have been our #1D the last two years for $4.1M. Maybe Nurse wouldn't have 'earned' his $9M?

Hell no. Long term now for this player.

The Oil already burned a year for him, have limited his pp points and again this year by putting him on the 3rd line.

With the cap going up heavy in a few years, the last thing you want is his bridge expiring at the same time as him being the #1 minute and pp guy

 

[CupofOil]

He’s going to be an absolute stud. Offensive hockey sense off the chart, he will adjust his risk reward as he goes.

And with 2 points in 6 games I’m still liking a 3 year bridge to keep the AAV as low as possible during the first term (thinking positively) of McDrai. Every million counts now and then after the bridge a long term bet on a then 26 year old student of the game is still great timing for D.

Agreed because I think the next 3 years will be their best chance to win a Cup in the prime McDrai window and I think the Dobson contract aids this cause but I'm not sure it's realistic. I think he's going to push hard for a long term contract and anything with a 6 in front of it would be ideal for the Oilers but 7+ might be more realistic.

 

[bucks_oil]

Hell no. Long term now for this player.

The Oil already burned a year for him, have limited his pp points and again this year by putting him on the 3rd line.

With the cap going up heavy in a few years, the last thing you want is his bridge expiring at the same time as him being the #1 minute and pp guy

It depends on what he's asking for now. If I'm his agent a long term deal already starts with a 7. Which we can't afford (without dire consequences) for a couple of years until our dead cap rinses off (and the cap goes up). I'm less worried about $9M in a few years than I am about $7M now.

There are two scenarios for Bouchard:
1) He becomes an absolutely sublime two way player because of his off the charts hockey sense. I expect this and in two to three years it's completely worth paying $9M+, or
2) He struggles to put his two way game together and continues to be an elite scorer who saws off at EV. That guy is still valuable, but he gets paid closer to $6-7M.

We control this guys' RFA years either way, neither of those two scenarios are harmed by us doing a bridge.

And we need to make good use of some bridge years on our 2nd generation of core guys. Especially D, since their D-side game doesn't usually round out until late twenties and you can leverage that in negotiations until then.

Wise GM Tactic 1: Lock up your core at a discount aka Drai.
Also a Wise GM Tactic 2: After your core is locked, take advantage of some RFA savings when presented with them, so that you can build around your core at a discount.

Each of these are reasonable tactics, depending on your situation. I believe it is time for tactic #2. Our cap situation makes the decision even easier.

Agreed because I think the next 3 years will be their best chance to win a Cup in the prime McDrai window and I think the Dobson contract aids this cause but I'm not sure it's realistic. I think he's going to push hard for a long term contract and anything with a 6 in front of it would be ideal for the Oilers but 7+ might be more realistic.

This is exactly where I am at...

if it can be under $7, sure... but why would it be?

 

[bucks_oil]

Hell no. Long term now for this player.

The Oil already burned a year for him, have limited his pp points and again this year by putting him on the 3rd line.

With the cap going up heavy in a few years, the last thing you want is his bridge expiring at the same time as him being the #1 minute and pp guy

Also... isn't the bolded all good news for us in negotiations? It will steer them toward a Dobson-like bridge, which would be stellar for us. I'm not afraid of his big money contract, but it needn't be now. It is to our advantage if it isn't now.

 

[Louis Cypher]

It depends on what he's asking for now. If I'm his agent a long term deal already starts with a 7. Which we can't afford (without dire consequences) for a couple of years until our dead cap rinses off (and the cap goes up). I'm less worried about $9M in a few years than I am about $7M now.

There are two scenarios for Bouchard:
1) He becomes an absolutely sublime two way player because of his off the charts hockey sense. I expect this and in two to three years it's completely worth paying $9M+, or
2) He struggles to put his two way game together and continues to be an elite scorer who saws off at EV. That guy is still valuable, but he gets paid closer to $6-7M.

We control this guys' RFA years either way, neither of those two scenarios are harmed by us doing a bridge.

And we need to make good use of some bridge years on our 2nd generation of core guys. Especially D, since their D-side game doesn't usually round out until late twenties and you can leverage that in negotiations until then.

Wise GM Tactic 1: Lock up your core at a discount aka Drai.
Also a Wise GM Tactic 2: After your core is locked, take advantage of some RFA savings when presented with them, so that you can build around your core at a discount.

Each of these are reasonable tactics, depending on your situation. I believe it is time for tactic #2. Our cap situation makes the decision even easier.



This is exactly where I am at...

if it can be under $7, sure... but why would it be?

Lock up your core like Drai?

When Drai got signed to that contract half this board lost their minds thinking it was was a crazy overpay.

 

[bucks_oil]

Lock up your core like Drai?

When Drai got signed to that contract half this board lost their minds thinking it was was a crazy overpay.

Not me. I loved it, on record.

Doesn't mean I would apply the same strategy in every situation.

Factors that steer me toward a bridge, which have nothing to do with Bouchard:
* Our active cap
* Our dead cap
* D-men take longer to mature
* D-men are prime well into their thirties (especially smart ones)
* Resigning D-men when they are 30-32 usually still comes with term/price tag and doesn't work in your favor
* Resigning a D-man when they are 34 usually doesn't come with term or high price
* Signing good D-men long term when they are 26 nearly always works in your favor (you know exactly what you have and all-around regression at the back end is rare)
* Signing good D-men long term when they are 23 *usually works in your favor, but comes at a near term cost (you pay for the projection of elite two-way play before you actually get it)
* The cap is still flat
* Our first McDrai window has two-three seasons left
* There is some (small risk) that they leave, and I don't like it. Best way to keep them is build a winner now.
* Every penny counts now
* Dobson bridge is an exceptional steal

Like I said... none of that is in any way a negative reflection of Bouchard. It's just my assessment of the situation based on history and external factors.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

My assumption is that there is no "max extension that is as cheap as possible". If we could get it done at $6M absolutely, but I don't see that likely.

And your cap tactics should have more to do with your team tactics than they do with an individual player (unless they are the franchise). If a bridge is what allows us to be >$2M (difference between bridge and long term) more competitive in the first term of McDrai, then you need to be open to exploring it.

Also, with D,... if you do it right (we didn't do it right with Nurse, we bridged him TWICE), then you can lock them up in prime more efficiently, since their prime is later (age 26 to 32 or 34).

Assumed Option A: Long term now at 8 x $7.5M (that's $1.5M less than Makar last summer), then at 31 you are backed into the corner (he'll still be prime) with another 6 x $6.5M = 95M/14 years and the expensive years were front loaded right when you needed the cap most.

Assumed Option B: Three year bridge at 3 x $5M, then he's 26, cap risen, cup woneth, McDrai resigned and you can go 8 x $9M until he's 34. After that the retirement contract (if any is required/desired) is way down in 2 or 3 x $3M category. That's $96M over the same 14 years, but we get the cap savings now when we need them and it is our option to pay him $9M in three years when its fair-market-value and we don't care (as much) about cap.

Given how it matches the team needs, I go with Option B. I do not add any risk to losing McDrai.

PS: Have you considered how well the Klefbom bridge would have worked if he'd been healthy? He'd have been our #1D the last two years for $4.1M. Maybe Nurse wouldn't have 'earned' his $9M?

This is well thought out, but I honestly think the savings will only be 1-2million over the next 3 years, and then the cap loss will be potentially be $5+ million.

The logic is that we have the maneuverability for a a $1-2million overpay now, but if we DON'T win a cup in 3 years, we are f***ed. We are never going to win one with 2x $9million Dmen.


McDavid and Draisaitl aren't leaving.

 

[CupofOil]

This is exactly where I am at...

if it can be under $7, sure... but why would it be?

I think because he plays 2nd pairing minutes. All the RFA Dman that got the real big bucks play far bigger roles on their team. I also think his offensive numbers will be capped because he doesn't play top PP unit (Thank you Barrie) so I don't think he'll have much of a case to get much more than, say, $6.5m on a long term deal.

That also strengthens the possibility of him getting bridged, he might want to bet on himself as he takes on a bigger role in future years. Something that can benefit both team and player. Give the Oilers an extra $2m or so the next 3 years to build a stronger team then Bouchard gets the bigger payday thereafter.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

If everything goes right and the players pay back how much they owe to the owners and get the cap up by 5 million as insiders have estimated, I would sign Bouchard long term.

3 years might give you savings in the current McDrai contract era but I’m not sure why anyone would be satisfied with seeing them leave. We should be pushing for contention beyond just these next few years.

 

[Fourier]

Lock up your core like Drai?

When Drai got signed to that contract half this board lost their minds thinking it was was a crazy overpay.

It was at most $500-750K more than it might have been but it was absolutely the right move. And this is even with the pandemic. Had that not happened we could easily be looking at a $90M cap right now.

If you can get him locked up long-term with something that starts with a $6 you do it for sure. Otherwise, the decision about long term or bridge is really about options for next year. The team needs to have cap space to add another significant asset. I think they can do that by moving on from JP, Yamamoto and or Foegele. But if they don't do that they need to potentially bridge Bouchard. In part because McLeod is making a case for a bigger raise than we might have expected.

 

[bucks_oil]

This is well thought out, but I honestly think the savings will only be 1-2million over the next 3 years, and then the cap loss will be potentially be $5+ million.

The logic is that we have the maneuverability for a a $1-2million overpay now, but if we DON'T win a cup in 3 years, we are f***ed. We are never going to win one with 2x $9million Dmen.


McDavid and Draisaitl aren't leaving.

What do you think he would sign for now? Maybe that's where we differ.

And I don't agree that we have any maneuverability right now... aren't we playing with 21 on our roster? And that's with several guys on ELC or at league minimum.

Also... we certainly can win a cup with two $9M D-men if the cap goes up. 3%/year would mean $91M in four years. 4% means $95M, 5% means $99M.

ROUND NUMBERS: If McDrai are resigned for $25M, +$18M for Nurse/Bouch, plus another $15M for Kane/Nuge/Hyman, that's $58M for 7 guys. It leaves an average of $2.2 for the rest of the roster. Or if you have 8 guys on ELC/league min (4th line, bottom pairing, backup goalie, 13th forward and 7th DMan), then you can have 7 other guys with an average of $3.7M.

If the cap goes up by 4%, then those 7-middling guys can make an average of $4.2M.

If it is 5%, then the average could be $4.7M.

Structure would look like this:

Kane McD $4.7M
Hyman Drai $4.7M
$4.7M Nuge $4.7M
$1M. $1M. $1M

Nurse $4.7M
$4.7M Bouch
$1M $1M

Goalies: $4.7M, $1M
Extras: $1M, $1M

How you spend that $4.7M/core piece becomes a solvable strategy, which is dependent on your prospects maturation. It requires that the farm is feeding in 1-2 decent ELC players per year and if any one of them can take one of those $4.7M spots, it's a huge win and we can redistribute $$$.

Not to mention the value of TDL deals given we'll finally be out of LTIR jail.

It's entirely doable. Much easier to conceive of a winner in the 2nd window, even with Bouch at $9M than it is to make it happen now.

That's why the bridge matters now.

 

[bucks_oil]

If everything goes right and the players pay back how much they owe to the owners and get the cap up by 5 million as insiders have estimated, I would sign Bouchard long term.

3 years might give you savings in the current McDrai contract era but I’m not sure why anyone would be satisfied with seeing them leave. We should be pushing for contention beyond just these next few years.

The savings in these next three years get spent improving the roster so that THEY DO stay. That's the point.

Bouchard is here for the next three years whether we bridge him or we don't. The extra $2-3M is better spent on depth to keep McDrai here than paying Bouch extra. We can easily resign him at FMV in three years time.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

What do you think he would sign for now? Maybe that's where we differ.

$7.25 for 8 years

 

[bucks_oil]

$7.25 for 8 years

That's about right.

I'd rather Dobson-bridge at that price and pay the $9 later (or $7.5 if the defensive game doesn't round out).

 

[LemmyUlanov55]

$7.25 for 8 years

Seems about right. Another bridge contract for him after this season sounds like a baaad idea.