Player Discussion Evan Bouchard

[MessierII]

Which site are you referring to?

All the big sites don't do that. Scoring chances are tallied regardless of the result.

Natural stat trick doesn’t. Watch the scores in a low event game. Sometimes there’s more goals credited to a team than high danger chances.

 

[McDNicks17]

Natural stat trick doesn’t. Watch the scores in a low event game. Sometimes there’s more goals credited to a team than high danger chances.

They do.

A high danger chance is just based on shot location and a couple other small things. Every goal won't be off a high danger chance. If you scored off three point shots, for instance, you'd have three goals with zero high danger chances.

 

[MessierII]

They do.

A high danger chance is just based on shot location and a couple other small things. Every goal won't be off a high danger chance. If you scored off three point shots, for instance, you'd have three goals with zero high danger chances.

Fair enough either way I don’t consider their numbers reliable as they often vary from hockey reference which i consider more legit.

 

[McDNicks17]

Fair enough either way I don’t consider their numbers reliable as they often vary from hockey reference which i consider more legit.

Their models are a little different.

NST usually has higher HDSCs because they factor in rush shots as more dangerous. Hockey-ref is just shots from the slot and rebounds.

 

[Aerchon]

I was initially going to post this in the are you worried thread but didn't want to derail so thought this is the best spot.

It's interesting a lot of people think Bouchard is struggling so far. It probably depends on how much a person values +/- and on ice save percentage 5v5 (89% for Bouchard). He ranks first in all these categories except SA/60 (third behind Nurse and Ceci but a better %) on the Oilers among defence 5v5:

CF/60, CA/60, FF/60, FA/60, SF/60, xGF/60, xGA/60, SCF/60, SCA/60, HDCF/60, HDCA/60.

He's far and away limiting high danger chances and scoring chances more than any other D right now.

Comparitively, Barrie is one of the worst on the team in all these categories but currently is running an on ice save percentage of 92.4%.

At this point a heavy minute Nurse Bouchard pairing could go a long way to helping out the Oilers defence.

We’re out scoring the opposition 14-10 with Barrie on the ice at even strength and being out scored 15-8 with Bouch out there. That’s not bad luck it’s bad hockey. Scoring chance stats omit goals which skews everything.

This is where eye test comes in handy for those that pay attention to the games with a high attention to detail.

My eye test clearly sees Barrie (a player is typically despise) is playing well defensively and has confidence/success in the offensive zone as well.

My eye test sees Bouchard making notable strides defensively but still making mistakes and struggling with effort the odd time. His offense, while still good, is also notably struggling. A lack of confidence in his wrister and timing his Bouch bomb around screens is off. Most his shots seem like they should be hard to handle but without traffic have pretty much been easy saves for an nhl goalie.

Bouchard is playing well overall and it's incredibly common for a defender to take a step back offensively while they develop defensively. Sums up what I am seeing.

As such he is doing well but I don't see how anyone can be particularly impressed or depressed about his play so far this year.

 

[Lacaar]

It's a bit unhinging how awful Edmonton's First round picks after the McDavid draft have performed this year.
If you look purely at the context of our first 16 games this year.
They've collectively been.... god awful?

Jesse Puljujarvi
Kailer Yamamoto
Evan Bouchard
Philip Broberg
Dylan Holloway

The best impact any of them have had for the Oilers is Broberg by at least having the decency to not make the team and in so doing, not hurt the team.

It's 16 games but I really only have hope for Bouchard and Holloway out of that group.

Jesse's a bonefide hockey moron.
Kailer is either a contract chaser, or injury prone... either way massively inconsistent
Philip is either injured or completely and utterly unnoticeable when I've watched him play.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

It's a bit unhinging how awful Edmonton's First round picks after the McDavid draft have performed this year.
If you look purely at the context of our first 16 games this year.
They've collectively been.... god awful?

Jesse Puljujarvi
Kailer Yamamoto
Evan Bouchard
Philip Broberg
Dylan Holloway

The best impact any of them have had for the Oilers is Broberg by at least having the decency to not make the team and in so doing, not hurt the team.

It's 16 games but I really only have hope for Bouchard and Holloway out of that group.

Jesse's a bonefide hockey moron.
Kailer is either a contract chaser, or injury prone... either way massively inconsistent
Philip is either injured or completely and utterly unnoticeable when I've watched him play.

hindsight draft picks:

McAvoy or Sergachev over Puljujarvi
Jason Robertson over Yamamoto
Dobson over Bouchard
Cole Caufield or Zegras over Broberg
Guhle or Mercer over Holloway

amazing team!

to be honest, I'm the least worried about Bouchard...he game will come around

 

[Aerchon]

It's a bit unhinging how awful Edmonton's First round picks after the McDavid draft have performed this year.
If you look purely at the context of our first 16 games this year.
They've collectively been.... god awful?

Jesse Puljujarvi
Kailer Yamamoto
Evan Bouchard
Philip Broberg
Dylan Holloway

The best impact any of them have had for the Oilers is Broberg by at least having the decency to not make the team and in so doing, not hurt the team.

It's 16 games but I really only have hope for Bouchard and Holloway out of that group.

Jesse's a bonefide hockey moron.
Kailer is either a contract chaser, or injury prone... either way massively inconsistent
Philip is either injured or completely and utterly unnoticeable when I've watched him play.

Development is not linear.

Pulj is a better depth forward than you credit with decent defensive IQ and just needs to accept he isnt a top 6 forward, get himself a shorter stick, and maybe this next offseason work on his puck handling and offensive skills rather than just hitting the gym.

Yama is what he is. Dealing with concussion issues and a tiny tiny body for the NHL he was always going to have limited effectiveness at the NHL level. Both him and JP need to realize their limitations and work towards being effective despite them. When healthy you can do worse than Yama as #2/3 RW and Pulj as a #3/4 RW but without a surprising significant growth in their games neither are going to be "worth" much, or be impact players. You still need solid players in your line-up and both Yama and JP "could" be that and were last year as a quick easy example.

See sentence at the top. Bouchard is improving defensively. Is surprising struggling a bit offensively. He has far less than the standard 200+ games under his belt. You typically dont know what you have in a defensman until they pass that mark and/or hit 28ish. Bouchard still easily has top pairing upside. Will he get their? who knows, but even this year it is apparent he is a top 4 defender already and that is nothing to sneeze at.

Broberg shouldn't reach the heights many here predicted. He was a reach where we drafted him. And while his development has been slow and relatively uninspiring, it has still been there. I am not expecting anything but it is still too early to write him off with what he has shown to date. I don't know how you don't temper your expectations after what I would consider a very weak training camp this year but you also dont write him off.

Holloway is a blank slate. I, and most others, thoughts he would be way better at the NHL level but making the jump to the NHL is very difficult and the mistakes he is making are traditional rookie mistakes. He easily could become great from what we have seen to date or he could wash out of the league all together.

As surprising as it is I don't believe Edmonton is drafting that poorly. I think it is more seeing the success of a few players in other organizations that makes us feel this way.

McDavid is McDavid but Leon, even for those like me that thought he had chance to be the best player in the draft, never saw him being quite likely the second best player on the planet...

Nurse has his flaws but IMo has covered the spread on his draft position and then some.

Even Nuge for being a first overall isn't as bad as some make out. Nail Yakupov actually managed 350 NHL games before washing out and Magnus 467.

I am guessing to some extent, but believe if you look at games played for first round picks the Oilers are likely above the league average over the last 20 years.

Now the second round and on I am almost certain we have to be below league average.

 

[bucks_oil]

Counter point, maybe Barrie is getting the saves and Bouchard isn't and players can't control how good or bad a goalie is behind them.

As a goalie: yes you can.

Everything, and I mean everything you do impacts my ability to make that save. It's all 100% about angles, sight-lines and pressure. A good, experienced defender can give up just as many "high danger" chances as a poor one, but if I can see it, if I know the pass isn't getting through, if the player is being rushed to get his shot off because my guy is closing him down, if half of the net is blocked by good gap control, etc, etc, etc, etc...

All of that eliminates or reduces risks and allows me to cheat toward the most likely option available to the forward. And my brain is calculating it all in real time... it will change everything about how I play the situation, how much I can cut down the angle, how much I need to respect the pass, heck even what technique I use for the save and where I try to put the rebound.

Simple example: imagine a one-on-one with a defender backing up toward his goalie.

A good defender, with a good gap will force the shot earlier AND because he has good gap, he's closer to the player, therefore I can see better, I can stay at the top of the crease and take it in the crest. The player didn't shoot for the top corners cuz he couldn't see them, so instead he tries to put it through me.

A bad defender on the same play might give more gap... back up more quickly into me and be less assertive. That means I'm coasting back faster myself because I need to be able to see around my defender. That opens up a lot of space to shoot at and once a good shooter is in good shooting range, reaction time and reflexes take a huge back seat to angles,... even the best goalie can't stop that well placed shot from deep in his crease.

None of this is to say Barrie > Bouchard or any such thing, but from the perspective of this goalie, even over time (or especially over time) xGF/GA stats can lie, GF/GA rarely do and even if they do, it doesn't matter because the reality is far more important than the expectation.

To me xGF/GA is more useful at the team level to quantify whether you are giving up more high quality chances than you are getting, or vice versa. At the individual level it comes down to the individual plays and decisions, which in my opinion map more directly to actual GF/GA.

 

[Lacaar]

Development is not linear.

Pulj is a better depth forward than you credit with decent defensive IQ and just needs to accept he isnt a top 6 forward, get himself a shorter stick, and maybe this next offseason work on his puck handling and offensive skills rather than just hitting the gym.

Yama is what he is. Dealing with concussion issues and a tiny tiny body for the NHL he was always going to have limited effectiveness at the NHL level. Both him and JP need to realize their limitations and work towards being effective despite them. When healthy you can do worse than Yama as #2/3 RW and Pulj as a #3/4 RW but without a surprising significant growth in their games neither are going to be "worth" much, or be impact players. You still need solid players in your line-up and both Yama and JP "could" be that and were last year as a quick easy example.

See sentence at the top. Bouchard is improving defensively. Is surprising struggling a bit offensively. He has far less than the standard 200+ games under his belt. You typically dont know what you have in a defensman until they pass that mark and/or hit 28ish. Bouchard still easily has top pairing upside. Will he get their? who knows, but even this year it is apparent he is a top 4 defender already and that is nothing to sneeze at.

Broberg shouldn't reach the heights many here predicted. He was a reach where we drafted him. And while his development has been slow and relatively uninspiring, it has still been there. I am not expecting anything but it is still too early to write him off with what he has shown to date. I don't know how you don't temper your expectations after what I would consider a very weak training camp this year but you also dont write him off.

Holloway is a blank slate. I, and most others, thoughts he would be way better at the NHL level but making the jump to the NHL is very difficult and the mistakes he is making are traditional rookie mistakes. He easily could become great from what we have seen to date or he could wash out of the league all together.

As surprising as it is I don't believe Edmonton is drafting that poorly. I think it is more seeing the success of a few players in other organizations that makes us feel this way.

McDavid is McDavid but Leon, even for those like me that thought he had chance to be the best player in the draft, never saw him being quite likely the second best player on the planet...

Nurse has his flaws but IMo has covered the spread on his draft position and then some.

Even Nuge for being a first overall isn't as bad as some make out. Nail Yakupov actually managed 350 NHL games before washing out and Magnus 467.

I am guessing to some extent, but believe if you look at games played for first round picks the Oilers are likely above the league average over the last 20 years.

Now the second round and on I am almost certain we have to be below league average.

My point wasn't really to predict the future but to understand the present. My feelings on our drafting and development this past year or so has been a massive roller coaster.

Before the season started I would have said.. Hey we've been doing pretty damn good.

1. Jesse may bounce back.. ok that one was a bit hopeful.
2. Kailer was playing effective and contributing.
3. Bouchard had a pretty darn good season.
4. Broberg was expected to start his NHL Journey.
5. Holloway flashed and honestly while utterly disappointing patience is definitely warranted.

Now in the context of the first 16 games of the season they've been a complete dumpster fire. Every one of them. Question's need to be asked within the organization about how and why these young pups are failing.. and failing HARD this season.

I'm not saying they won't bounce back. Frig I hope so or this team is in trouble.

This is a tough league no doubt but we should always be measuring our drafting and development. Against other teams and being honest with ourselves. And right now it's not looking good..

Even some our surprise later round draft picks are struggling mightily to make an impact.
1. Ryan Mcleod has disappeared off the face of the planet after a few good games to start.
2. Markus Niemelainen has had meh impact at best.

For the first 16 games of the year Edmonton Has got a whole lot of nothing from anyone drafted after McDavid's draft year.

 

[ujju2]

Players don't sign 8 year deals unless they are hitting the home run. Bouchard isn't worth that. He's outside the top 40 defenseman in the league. Show me one player that has signed for 8 years that isn't making upper echelon NHL money. Try for 6 years and if he wants too much settle for five years. 6x6M or 5x5M is perfectly reasonable for this player.

I want to see back to basics Bouchard playing an elevated level of two way hockey and not some hyped up player like Barrie 2.0. And it has to be said, Barrie is vastly superior to Bouchard on the powerplay.

There are many (I’ll look through and find them tonight if I have time) but Klefbom for 7 years was a recent Oilers example.

 

[joestevens29]

There are many (I’ll look through and find them tonight if I have time) but Klefbom for 7 years was a recent Oilers example.

2023-24 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2023-24 NHL players who are currently active in the league

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Aerchon]

My point wasn't really to predict the future but to understand the present. My feelings on our drafting and development this past year or so has been a massive roller coaster.

Before the season started I would have said.. Hey we've been doing pretty damn good.

1. Jesse may bounce back.. ok that one was a bit hopeful.
2. Kailer was playing effective and contributing.
3. Bouchard had a pretty darn good season.
4. Broberg was expected to start his NHL Journey.
5. Holloway flashed and honestly while utterly disappointing patience is definitely warranted.

Now in the context of the first 16 games of the season they've been a complete dumpster fire. Every one of them. Question's need to be asked within the organization about how and why these young pups are failing.. and failing HARD this season.

I'm not saying they won't bounce back. Frig I hope so or this team is in trouble.

This is a tough league no doubt but we should always be measuring our drafting and development. Against other teams and being honest with ourselves. And right now it's not looking good..

Even some our surprise later round draft picks are struggling mightily to make an impact.
1. Ryan Mcleod has disappeared off the face of the planet after a few good games to start.
2. Markus Niemelainen has had meh impact at best.

For the first 16 games of the year Edmonton Has got a whole lot of nothing from anyone drafted after McDavid's draft year.

Fair enough, agreed for all the above except for:

"Even some our surprise later round draft picks are struggling mightily to make an impact.
1. Ryan Mcleod has disappeared off the face of the planet after a few good games to start.
2. Markus Niemelainen has had meh impact at best."

McLeod is producing/playing extremely well for his ice time/opportunities/line mates. Add in his cap hit and he may well be playing better than McDavid in impact per $. Joking of course but I think you get the point.

Niemelainen hasn't been as good as McLeod but he has been more good than bad overall IMO and is far from struggling mightily. I have low expectations for Niem and he has met or exceeded those this year. I hope he can develop more and be more impactful but for his role is extremely small on this team and I think some people forget he is a rookie with less than half a season under his belt.

I would also say Bouchard's last season was better than "pretty darned good" but that is splitting hairs.

 

[Shanahanigans]

Bouchard is struggling but name any player on the team who isn't struggling defensively? Team leaders, Nurse and Drai, have been awful defensively as well. Once the team defence improves, players like Bouchard will look a lot better. I'm more than willing to have patience with this player, especially with how mediocre we've been overall to start the season.

 

[McDNicks17]

I think people need to cut him some slack.

Right now he's #1 on the Oilers D in SCF/60, SCA/60, HDCF/60 and HDCA/60. He's 8.35% higher than anyone else in xGF%.

He's getting screwed over by a 4.61 onSH% and .898 SV%. Those are numbers that will normalize as the season goes on(well maybe the SV% won't if Campbell keeps sucking).

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Try to lock him up now while he struggles

 

[McDNicks17]

To add, you can kind of see the issue with his numbers here:

The numbers to a few names stick out like a sore thumb.

 

[PecnoTrunk]

I believe in Bouchard , I think he might even be in consideration for the next team Canada World Cup with Nurse. We will see how that goes for both of them

 

[SwedishFire]

I believe in Bouchard , I think he might even be in consideration for the next team Canada World Cup with Nurse. We will see how that goes for both of them

I could see Bouch be in before Nurse
Better shot and PP.

 

[McDanglez]

I like Bouchard, I think he's going to be an important player going forward. That said he needs work defensively- specifically gap control and anticipating plays going the other way better.

I doubt his party will want to sign a contract right now - but this is the time to try get something done.

 

[MessierII]

He is an absolute mess right now on both ends of the ice. I don’t care what the numbers say he is playing flat out awful.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I think people need to cut him some slack.

Right now he's #1 on the Oilers D in SCF/60, SCA/60, HDCF/60 and HDCA/60. He's 8.35% higher than anyone else in xGF%.

He's getting screwed over by a 4.61 onSH% and .898 SV%. Those are numbers that will normalize as the season goes on(well maybe the SV% won't if Campbell keeps sucking).

This post here is every reason why fancy stats need to be launched to the moon. Advanced stats proponents scoff at the eye test, but there isn’t a single person who has watched Evan Bouchard this year and tell me they’re happy with his play….. or can you?

He was downright atrocious the last 2 games, and has maybe had 3 games all year where you could say he’s done more good than bad.

This year he looks like the byproduct of a Jultz-Tom Poti-Tom Gilbert test tube baby. It’s quite sickening.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

We need a solid veteran legitimate 2nd pairing defenseman to settle his game down a bit. Like it or not Kulak is a downgrade on Keith. We hedged on Kulak being a 2nd pairing guy and lost. He is a guy that can fill in there for spot duty, but shouldn't be there long term. The question becomes, if we add such a player and Broberg is ready for full time duty, is Kulak our expensive #7?

 

[JustNapalmIt]

This post here is every reason why fancy stats need to be launched to the moon. Advanced stats proponents scoff at the eye test, but there isn’t a single person who has watched Evan Bouchard this year and tell me they’re happy with his play….. or can you?

He was downright atrocious the last 2 games, and has maybe had 3 games all year where you could say he’s done more good than bad.

This year he looks like the byproduct of a Jultz-Tom Poti-Tom Gilbert test tube baby. It’s quite sickening.

Bingo

 

[McDNicks17]

This post here is every reason why fancy stats need to be launched to the moon. Advanced stats proponents scoff at the eye test, but there isn’t a single person who has watched Evan Bouchard this year and tell me they’re happy with his play….. or can you?

He was downright atrocious the last 2 games, and has maybe had 3 games all year where you could say he’s done more good than bad.

This year he looks like the byproduct of a Jultz-Tom Poti-Tom Gilbert test tube baby. It’s quite sickening.

People scoff at the eye test because it’s full of bias and no more reliable than anything else.

Petry got crucified on this board because he would play a good game, but have one really visible error. That’s Bouchard right now. People either ignoring or not even noticing all the good subtle things he does to drive possession and just focusing on the brain farts.