Speculation: Evan Bouchard asking $11M AAV on his next deal

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Edm takes him to arbitration in 2025, I think he'd opt for a 2 year deal that takes him right to UFA and then he can either bolt or put the hammer down on the Oilers to pay him for the maximum he can get.

I do think the Oilers can afford to take that chance. Because they can realistically assume that just about any skilled offensive d-men will pile up those kind of points behind the McDrai offense, right? They don't need to panic about any other teams offering Evan Bouchard more money. No other teams actually would offer him that money, right? His sweet spot is right where he is, he's not going to get $10-11M from anybody else, that's for sure.

 

[Breakers]

Bouchard is still only 24 years old, a 2 year bridge would take him to age 26, where he can then sign a proper 8 year deal. He'll still be fairly young by then. I'd probably rather do that if I'm the Oilers, yes you may pay a little more on the 8 year deal, but you'll have more flexibility with a higher cap, Nurse's NMC is removed making him tradable, and Campbell's buyout penalty also decreases in those years.

That is LITERALLY the reason edmonton is in the mess they are with Nurse is the double bridge

you bridge once and that's it.

 

[StreetHawk]

Bouchard is still only 24 years old, a 2 year bridge would take him to age 26, where he can then sign a proper 8 year deal. He'll still be fairly young by then. I'd probably rather do that if I'm the Oilers, yes you may pay a little more on the 8 year deal, but you'll have more flexibility with a higher cap, Nurse's NMC is removed making him tradable, and Campbell's buyout penalty also decreases in those years..

You are forgetting that he's a late bday and turns 25 in Oct, and is under contract for 24/25 season.
So, a 2 year bridge once his current deal is over would take him to age 27 at July 1, 2027 where he would be a UFA.

 

[Soundwave]

You are forgetting that he's a late bday and turns 25 in Oct, and is under contract for 24/25 season.
So, a 2 year bridge once his current deal is over would take him to age 27 at July 1, 2027 where he would be a UFA.

Which is entirely fine. 27 years old is still prime years in pro sports enough to secure a 8 year deal at likely even more than he would get now. Matthews bet on a shorter deal and he will be more like 30 years old when his current deal is up, he's still banking on another monster contract at age 30.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It will be close. The Canadian TV deal is up in 2 years, the next deal is probably going to be the biggest TV deal in NHL history, my guess is a 3 company split between Sportsnet, Amazon, and TSN/RDS. There's going to be likely a 5-6 million surge in the cap that off-season alone.

People can say what they want about terrestrial TV numbers, but the fact is pro sports is still one of the few things on TV that reliably brings in viewers live and as such they can leverage massive deals still, look at that monster new NBA contract split between NBC, Amazon, ABC/ESPN even though NBA ratings overall have declined over the past decade plus.

Maybe $100M in 4 years from now. It won't happen before that though.

If anything, what might drive the cap up quicker will be expansion to 34 teams. And also potentially increasing the schedule to 84 or 86 games from 82. Can't imagine the players agreeing to that without some sort of cap bump.


But that's also still probably ~4 years away quite frankly. The TV deal won't change much.

 

[StreetHawk]

Which is entirely fine. 27 years old is still prime years in pro sports enough to secure a 8 year deal at likely even more than he would get now. Matthews bet on a shorter deal and he will be more like 30 years old when his current deal is up, he's still banking on another monster contract at age 30.

Depends on how arbitration negotiations go with EDM. Swayman was taken to arbitration before. Now, as pre-season has begun, he's still not signed. Both sides have plenty of time to figure this out as he's under contract anyways this season.

 

[Soundwave]

Maybe $100M in 4 years from now. It won't happen before that though.

The only way the cap rise will be that low is if magic wundervirus COVID 2.0 happens, 2.5 mill-ish raise per year is extremely low.

Inflation (I'm guessing many people actually don't properly understand this) is a thing for starters. Everything is more expensive at all these sports events, on what planet is anyone paying the same price for a ticket, jersey, beer, hot dog, parking, etc. etc. at any of these events? Even going to the movies is way higher than 5 years ago, that's not going to stop. Utah will earn more revenue than the peanuts Arizona was bringing in, there's a Five Nations Tournament too ... there's no way the cap rise will be 2 million next season after going up 4 this year.

The year after that the Canadian TV deal expires and likely the NHL is going to get the largest TV deal in their history. There's no way that's going to just be a ho-hum 2.5 million rise as well.

You're assigning magical value to the number 100 million thinking it's something special and thus requires some special effort to get to, it's not, it's just a number like 99 or 101 or 102 or 98.

I would say 3.5-4 million salary cap rise for next season, followed by probably a larger bump because of the TV deal the year after, maybe 5+ million, you're already very close to 100 million in just 2 years.

 

[Soundwave]

Depends on how arbitration negotiations go with EDM. Swayman was taken to arbitration before. Now, as pre-season has begun, he's still not signed. Both sides have plenty of time to figure this out as he's under contract anyways this season.

Good for the Bruins for holding their ground.

 

[Breakers]

Which is entirely fine. 27 years old is still prime years in pro sports enough to secure a 8 year deal at likely even more than he would get now. Matthews bet on a shorter deal and he will be more like 30 years old when his current deal is up, he's still banking on another monster contract at age 30.

Umm no it isnt
That is terrible cap management

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Well, since he's an arbitration-eligible RFA, the Oilers do at least have some small amount of leverage. I'm not sure an arbitrator will award him $11M in a world where:

Adam Fox AAV = $9.5M
Roman Josi AAV = $9.059M
Cale Makar AAV = $9.0M

It's kind of a stretch already to suggest Bouchard is at the level of those 3 players, right? He's in a superb spot to put up great numbers, but does anybody actually think he's better than those 3 guys? The Oilers should be able to keep him at $9.5Mish at least? A little more than Nurse, but keeping in mind where the rest of the elite Dmen in the NHL are currently sitting?

Fox contract took up 11.52% of the cap at the time of his signing
Makar only signed a 6 year deal and his took up 11.04%
Josi's took up 11.12% of the cap at the time

depending on the cap next year...his ask could be in the range of those guys (again, "ask" is different than actually dollars)

 

[Soundwave]

Umm no it isnt
That is terrible cap management

No it's an understanding that the cap isn't a static thing.

That would buy you a nice window now to win with, and if he's really worth $12+ million he'll have proved it definitely by then or not.

But the cap will then be significantly higher, there's also Campbell's buy out penalty drops from 2.6 that season to 1.5.

Most NHL fans really don't have any clue how cap management actually works, they're so far behind fans of other sports like MLB and the NBA, discussion on the cap if you're a fan of those other leagues, NHL fans are laughably simplistic.

 

[Breakers]

Walking two of your defenseman that you drafted and developed directly to Unrestrcited status as soon as possible would be the dumbest thing in history

No it's an understanding that the cap isn't a static thing.

That would buy you a nice window now to win with, and if he's really worth $12+ million he'll have proved it definitely by then or not.

But the cap will then be significantly higher, there's also Campbell's buy out penalty drops from 2.6 that season to 1.5.

Most NHL fans really don't have any clue how cap management actually works, they're so far behind fans of other sports like MLB and the NBA, discussion on the cap if you're a fan of those other leagues, NHL fans are laughably simplistic.

It’s clear who is simplistic
Waking him directly to unrestricted status is terrible management

 

[Soundwave]

Walking two of your defenseman that you drafted and developed directly to Unrestrcited status as soon as possible would be the dumbest thing in history



It’s clear who is simplistic
Waking him directly to unrestricted status is terrible management

It's a risk, but locking him in for an exorbinant salary now isn't neccessarily a slam dunk either.

If you feel like you have a team he will want to be a part of then what's the problem exactly?

Makar can "walk" from the Avs in 3 years too, so can Quinn Hughes from the Canucks ... is that terrible management?

 

[Breakers]

It's a risk, but locking him in for an exorbinant salary now isn't neccessarily a slam dunk either.

If you feel like you have a team he will want to be a part of then what's the problem exactly?

Makar can "walk" from the Avs in 3 years too ... is that terrible management?

Makar was 2 years of UFA
Trying to compare the 2 situation is not understanding the cap in the slightest

 

[Soundwave]

Makar was 2 years of UFA
Trying to compare the 2 situation is not understanding the cap in the slightest

If the Oilers bridge Bouchard, they will be getting 1 or 2 years of UFA eligibility as well, three year window overall.

There's no law that says every player now must be given a 8 year deal at age 25.

Makar will be 14-15 on his next deal, Hughes probably much the same.

 

[Breakers]

If the Oilers bridge Bouchard, they will be getting 1 or 2 years of UFA eligibility as well, three year window overall.

There's no law that says every player now must be given a 8 year deal at age 25.

They already bridged him, why can't you grasp that
so no they aren't

hell even matthews got UFA years
bridging twice is idiotic, Nurse got to UFA status quicker than superstars in this league.

 

[Soundwave]

They already bridged him, why can't you grasp that
so no they aren't

hell even matthews got UFA years
bridging twice is idiotic, Nurse got to UFA status quicker than superstars in this league.

I would consider bridging him again. He's only 24 as of today, there's still a lot of time for him to get a giant 8 year contract and also prove without a doubt that he's worth that. It's not like he'll be 31/32 or something if he's bridged again, he'll be 27 or 28 which is fine.

I don't see why "just pay the maximum amount asap" is the only plausible option.

He won't risk a 1 year contract, no one is doing that after seeing what happened to Klingberg.

He'll take a 2-3 year in the 8.5 range IMO if the Oilers won't give him 8 now, that will get him "reasonably set for life" money, and then sure he can ask for a higher amount after that, but the Oilers will have more cap flexibility and the option of moving Nurse by then as well.

Makar is going to be what? 29 when his current contract is up? He's then going to demand 8 years x 14-15 mill.

 

[jellybeans]

I believe this is the last year that the Oilers have a chance to win it all unless they can unload Nurse after this year their $$$ for depth is going to be very hard to have quality.

 

[Breakers]

I would consider bridging him again. He's only 24 as of today, there's still a lot of time for him to get a giant 8 year contract and also prove without a doubt that he's worth that. It's not like he'll be 31/32 or something if he's bridged again, he'll be 27 or 28 which is fine.

I don't see why "just pay the maximum amount asap" is the only plausible option.

He won't risk a 1 year contract, no one is doing that after seeing what happened to Klingberg.

He'll take a 2-3 year in the 8.5 range IMO if the Oilers won't give him 8 now, that will get him "reasonably set for life" money, and then sure he can ask for a higher amount after that, but the Oilers will have more cap flexibility and the option of moving Nurse as well.

Makar is going to be what? 29 when his current contract is up? He's then going to demand 8 years 14-15 mill.

Makar got 2 years of UFA, so did Quinn Hughes

they would have taken 4 years easily as it is the quickest way possible after ELC to make the most money in their career. Nurse still got to UFA quicker than superstars in this league, and how did that turn out for edmonton?????????? You're suggesting they make the same mistake again?

Edmonton's management giving another 2 year bridge to get him to UFA as quick as humanly possible where they have zero leverage is beyond stupid.

 

[Maria Sharapova]

I was told all the oilers core were taking discounts to stay what is happening here

 

[Soundwave]

Makar got 2 years of UFA, so did Quinn Hughes

they would have taken 4 years easily as it is the quickest way possible after ELC to make the most money in their career. Nurse still got to UFA quicker than superstars in this league, and how did that turn out for edmonton?????????? You're suggesting they make the same mistake again?

Edmonton's management giving another 2 year bridge to get him to UFA as quick as humanly possible where they have zero leverage is beyond stupid.

It depends on how much they think he can command on his following contract.

Is Bouchard getting 14-15 on his next deal if bridged? I would doubt it. That would probably mean then Makar is getting 16-17 ... we're getting into ridiculous salary ranges then.

Yes, you may end up paying say 12 long term instead of 10.5 you could have gotten now, but I'm thinking how often do you get a window with a player of Connor McDavid's talent, you are better off maximizing that immediate window to win in the next 3-4 years as much as possible.

3 years from now, you have much more flexibility on your cap, the "extra" you're paying Bouchard for example can simply come from Campbell's buy out penalty dropping from 2.6 to 1.5 (that's 1.1 mill in extra cap space right there).

 

[benfranklin]

Everyone remember Tyson Barrie was on pace for 70 points running that PP and being able to give breakout passes to McDavid or Draisiatl. Bouchard is a better and younger player, but in no universe should he be compared to the big boy defensemen of this league yet. There is and should be a huge asterisk running that PP.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The new Leafs cap management with most of it in 3 players

At least their players show up in the post season.

Which has always been the issue with the Leafs

 

[VainGretzky]

Bouchard 10.5M

Nurse 9.25M

Makar 9M

Heiskanen 8.45M

Q.Hughes 7.85M

Seems about right for what they bring! Go Oil, Go!

Bouchard since the end of 22-23 regular season 141 points
Makar 110 points
Hughes 102 points
Heiskanen82 points

Bouchard should be paid more than all of them

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

i hope mcdavid gets $20m x 8

I hear that's what Mitch Marner is asking for.