Speculation: Evan Bouchard asking $11M AAV on his next deal

[Empoleon8771]

what is he worth?

Probably like $9.5 million a year.

Malkin had to get more than Sid because when Malkin got his 3rd contract the nhl had instituted the 8 year max term contract.

Looks like the other Oilers are still asking for premium dollars.

Yeah this is a factor too, but my point was more about how the top guys set the culture of contracts for their team, and Nurse getting a mega deal that he's not worth basically guarantees that Bouchard is getting more than he's worth.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Probably like $9 million a year.

why 9 million? he was top 6 in every statistical category and just finished with double the playoffs points as the closest d-man..and finished 6th in Conn Smythe voting

 

[Faceboner]

The salary cap is rising 11 mil isn't the same as last year and won't be the same next year you'd be better off calculating based off of cap%. With that said the 40 mil will eat up a huge percent of the cap tied into 3 players of an 18 man roster which is about 1/6 of the roster eating up barely less than 50% of cap space leaves room for maybe 1 or 2 key signings in about the 8-10 mil area and fill the rest out with cheaper depth guys hoping they click. But the cap will probably be over a 100 mil in 4 years

 

[Shark Finn]

That will inevitably happen, inflation is a thing. You're not gonna have like a 100 million dollar salary cap and think it should operate the same way it did when it was at 80 million, that's just stupid.

I didn't say anything about that.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

hilarious that year after year nobody seems to understand how negotiations work

Coming from a Nucks fan,

for what he's capable of,
He'd probably sign something in the high 9s or even 10s.
Its only fair this way too since Nurse's contract will be used as a comparison.

yup. Players play well, they get paid. It's not rocket science.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Hell get 10. Cap will be 100 in 2 years. Doesnt matter. You can still fill out a great team with 60 mill

There's like a 1% chance of this happening lmao

 

[Bond]

That would be kinda risky on his part though too, one year anything can happen, you can hurt and there goes a long term deal. 2 years x 8.5 gives him a chance to get some bigger money, and then at age 28 sign a long term deal.

I think if he going to do a short term deal he will do a one year otherwise he will push for an 8 year deal

 

[McFlash97]

hilarious that year after year nobody seems to understand how negotiations work


yup. Players play well, they get paid. It's not rocket science.

A lot of these guys have thier underwear in a knot after seeing Bouchard scorch earth the playoffs with 32 points after surpassing 80 points in the regular season at 23/24.

The thought of anyone else other than Makar and Hughes being as dominant offensively in the regular season and even more dominant in the playoffs makes them feel uneasy.

 

[TLEH]

Do you know who their GM is? Stan Bowman is giving him 10.5 and a full NMC for 8 years.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Oilers are in a tough spot with Bouchard in the sense that he might not actually be worth that much, but what's the alternative? Do they have a ready replacement for Bouchard if they decide to move on from him? And will that replacement fit the Oilers like Bouchard does?

It might be one of those situations where on the Oilers Bouchard's worth $11 million, even though on another NHL team he's more like a $9 million player.

 

[bert]

Trade him he aint worth that.

Hell get 10. Cap will be 100 in 2 years. Doesnt matter. You can still fill out a great team with 60 mill

Still way too high for a one dimensional d man. They can go get a great pp qb that cant play against the other teams best players for half that.

 

[dumbdick]

This deal has disaster written all over it. If the oil are smart they go 2-3 years max.

 

[GOilers88]

11m for an average defensive d-man, whos getting points because of the big 2.

They did not learn with Nurse?
Bouchard is not a bad player but above 8m , that's horrendous

What do you mean did they not learn?

They haven't signed him, and organizations have no control over what players ask for.

Why’d he accept that though? If he goes short, he could sign a one year deal and then hit UFA. The Oilers best hope is that he has a major regression and they still make the playoffs.

The Oilers best hope is everyone knocks it out of the park and they win a cup.

Why the f*** would they hope he sucks ass?

 

[StreetHawk]

This deal has disaster written all over it. If the oil are smart they go 2-3 years max.

They can always opt for to take him to arbitration. He's a 2018 pick so he's 24 in 2024 (late Bday so turns 25 soon), but not UFA for 3 more seasons. But, like Boston is dealing with swayman, that can create bad feelings which makes the next negotiation more difficult.

 

[bobholly39]

Lol. As an EDM fan, if he’s going to use that as a benchmark, and he wants to play hardball, he can kick rocks.

Bouchard is a good player, but he isn’t the type of D that Dahlin is and will be, and as much as some may not want to admit it, he benefits greatly in terms of the stat sheet from playing with McDrai.

I’d offer him $10M AAV, and I think that’s generous and putting a lot of faith in him. I’m not quite sure about the term with that kind of AAV because I feel like the max term should be used on franchise level players because it makes them nearly untradeable. Bouchard is not a franchise level player, imo.

I’d offer $10M AAV @ 4, maybe 5 years. I’d give him a 10 team no-trade list if he wanted it, but wouldn’t budge anymore on the NTC/NMC.

If he didn’t accept that, then I think it’d be time to start looking at trade options.

That’s just me though; I’ve got this sickening feeling that the Oilers are just going to cave and give max term or $11M, or both. That would be disastrous.

That doesn't really make sense.

It's better for Bouchard to only get 4 or 5 years and worst for Edmonton, not other way around. In 4-5 years he'll still be really young and command an increase (based on cap continuing to go up). It's better to lock him up for 8 years for Oilers.

Also - 10 vs 11M aav to me is kind of a moot point. You don't lose a player like that for 1M a year. Doesn't mean it has to be 11 and they can't settle on 10 - just that it's super close either way. Maybe if you had said 8 or even 9M it'd be a big difference.

 

[Bond]

The Oilers best hope is everyone knocks it out of the park and they win a cup.

Why the f*** would they hope he sucks ass?

I don't think they are a cup winner

 

[innitfam]

10.5 for Bouchard, 16.5 for McDavid IMO

 

[Soundwave]

I think if he going to do a short term deal he will do a one year otherwise he will push for an 8 year deal

The Oilers would be advised to call his bluff and possibly do that.

A 1 year deal is incredibly risky for him, ask John Klingberg, you get hurt or you just have an off-year for whatever reason(s) and you're screwed.

A 2-3 year deal would more akin to what Auston Matthews did which is take some money now and hold out for when the cap is higher to make even more (post TV deal).

Bouchard is still very young, doesn't turn 25 until the season starts, in two years, even three years he'll still be at a prime age for getting a long term 8 year year deal.

 

[cheesymc]

Package him for Swayman and sign/trade for defensive depth.

 

[Soundwave]

There's like a 1% chance of this happening lmao

It will be close. The Canadian TV deal is up in 2 years, the next deal is probably going to be the biggest TV deal in NHL history, my guess is a 3 company split between Sportsnet, Amazon, and TSN/RDS. There's going to be likely a 5-6 million surge in the cap that off-season alone.

People can say what they want about terrestrial TV numbers, but the fact is pro sports is still one of the few things on TV that reliably brings in viewers live and as such they can leverage massive deals still, look at that monster new NBA contract split between NBC, Amazon, ABC/ESPN even though NBA ratings overall have declined over the past decade plus.

 

[Bouboumaster]

Oilers should present a 4 000 000$ per year contract, and than meet in the middle with Bouchard

11 000 000 is f***ing insanity

 

[bucks_oil]

Another Ken Holland gift

Mostly Chiarelli.

It was him that had Holland forced signing obscure Euros like Gaeten Haas and Nygard to league minimum just to ice a lineup. That particular chapter of our cap crunch led to a 2nd Nurse bridge (when he was asking $7M and we had $5M in cap space)... and that bridge led to the Covid-Canada division... so here we are.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

why 9 million? he was top 6 in every statistical category and just finished with double the playoffs points as the closest d-man..and finished 6th in Conn Smythe voting

Well, since he's an arbitration-eligible RFA, the Oilers do at least have some small amount of leverage. I'm not sure an arbitrator will award him $11M in a world where:

Adam Fox AAV = $9.5M
Roman Josi AAV = $9.059M
Cale Makar AAV = $9.0M

It's kind of a stretch already to suggest Bouchard is at the level of those 3 players, right? He's in a superb spot to put up great numbers, but does anybody actually think he's better than those 3 guys? The Oilers should be able to keep him at $9.5Mish at least? A little more than Nurse, but keeping in mind where the rest of the elite Dmen in the NHL are currently sitting?

 

[StreetHawk]

Well, since he's an arbitration-eligible RFA, the Oilers do at least have some small amount of leverage. I'm not sure an arbitrator will award him $11M in a world where:

Adam Fox AAV = $9.5M
Roman Josi AAV = $9.059M
Cale Makar AAV = $9.0M

It's kind of a stretch already to suggest Bouchard is at the level of those 3 players, right? He's in a superb spot to put up great numbers, but does anybody actually think he's better than those 3 guys? The Oilers should be able to keep him at $9.5Mish at least? A little more than Nurse, but keeping in mind where the rest of the elite Dmen in the NHL are currently sitting?

If Edm takes him to arbitration in 2025, I think he'd opt for a 2 year deal that takes him right to UFA and then he can either bolt or put the hammer down on the Oilers to pay him for the maximum he can get.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Edm takes him to arbitration in 2025, I think he'd opt for a 2 year deal that takes him right to UFA and then he can either bolt or put the hammer down on the Oilers to pay him for the maximum he can get.

I do think the Oilers can afford to take that chance. Because they can realistically assume that just about any skilled offensive d-men will pile up those kind of points behind the McDrai offense, right? They don't need to panic about any other teams offering Evan Bouchard more money. No other teams actually would offer him that money, right? His sweet spot is right where he is, he's not going to get $10-11M from anybody else, that's for sure.