NHL Expansion back on agenda?

[Tawnos]

Seems consistent with his prior stance and opinion of the NHL. He's not a fan of hockey. This would be a pure business transaction for him. So, maybe it's good for Houston hockey fans if he's not the owner if that's his mindset.

But, right now, he's the main person that would be the person to bring the NHL to Houston. A lot of time, effort, money would be needed to figure out another arena outside of Harris county for another prospective owner.

Eh, there are benefits to the owner viewing the team as little more than a business asset. As long as he's investing the money, I don't think we can know if it's good or bad. Just as an example, the Rangers owner doesn't care that much about hockey but he'll spend on the team with little interference in hockey ops (except on occasion). Meanwhile, he does care about basketball and the Knicks have been mismanaged for decades as a result.

TB's valuation was $2 billion earlier this year and Hou and ATL are larger metro areas. Probably looking at a floor of $1.5 bill at a minimum. Probably why Fertitta is still holding onto his stance. Team success will go up and down over time.

The expansion fee likely needs to be at or above the average of franchise values right now, otherwise it doesn't do enough for the other owners. Forbes had that average last December at $1.33B and they tend to undershoot.

 

[StreetHawk]

Paul Allen (former Trail Blazers owner) mentioned interest in an NHL team when he was alive. It was a passing comment that he made a couple of times, if the price and conditions were right.

He died and his estate, including the Trail Blazers, has been in a trust which is run by his sister, Jody. Nobody knows what conditions Allen specified, specifically, if the Trail Blazers have to be sold at some point. The presumption is the entire estate has to be disposed of. She has said the team will be sold, but has not publicly set a timeline. A couple of offers have been made at around market value ($2B range) and turned down because they are not for sale "at this time."

Last 3 NBA sales have been $3.5 bill for the Bucks, $4 bill for the Suns and $3 bill for the Hornets. So, $2 bill is low for the Blazers unless that was over 3 years ago.

Allen's estate from all reports, says that the teams must be sold (not for his sister Jody to pass onto someone else). But, no timeline for when that is to occur.

 

[eojsmada]

So I agree with what everyone is saying (that Bettman will deny right up until he announces expansion) but I don't see any linkage between expansion and the CBA. Maybe if they want to do re-alignment, but otherwise the league can expand without amending the CBA.

Except that the only source of "contention" in the CBA negotiations, this time around, is going to be HRR and how it is defined and included into the total income "pie." It's not so much the split % but what is included. The expansion fees will figure into that more heavily than last time, since expansion fees are quadruple (or more) since the last CBA. Never underestimate money being a stumbling block in any negotiation.

 

[StreetHawk]

Eh, there are benefits to the owner viewing the team as little more than a business asset. As long as he's investing the money, I don't think we can know if it's good or bad. Just as an example, the Rangers owner doesn't care that much about hockey but he'll spend on the team with little interference in hockey ops (except on occasion). Meanwhile, he does care about basketball and the Knicks have been mismanaged for decades as a result.



The expansion fee likely needs to be at or above the average of franchise values right now, otherwise it doesn't do enough for the other owners. Forbes had that average last December at $1.33B and they tend to undershoot.

A good owner is one that takes the time and spends the money on good people in management and affords them what is needed to ice a team. Be it in SB money for players, HC salary, high end practice facility. No need to be in on day to day operations.

The size of the Atl and Hou markets would certainly put the expansion price above the Avg team value IMO.

 

[Tawnos]

A good owner is one that takes the time and spends the money on good people in management and affords them what is needed to ice a team. Be it in SB money for players, HC salary, high end practice facility. No need to be in on day to day operations.

The size of the Atl and Hou markets would certainly put the expansion price above the Avg team value IMO.

Agreed. I guess what I'm saying is that we don't know if Fertitta's seeming ambivalence towards hockey would result in neglect or a hands-off approach, so saying they'd be better without him as the owner if premature. The other question is whether or not the NHL is so desperate to get into the market that they're willing to risk the possibility of neglect, or if they've been convinced otherwise.

 

[dj4aces]

So I agree with what everyone is saying (that Bettman will deny right up until he announces expansion) but I don't see any linkage between expansion and the CBA. Maybe if they want to do re-alignment, but otherwise the league can expand without amending the CBA.

Yeah... there's not really anything there. I think it all hinges on what players might ask for, versus what they actually want.

Even then... let's say they announce the application process to Atlanta and Houston ...*checks calendar*... next week, I'm not sure how realignment plays in to the CBA. I know the NHLPA can accept or reject a realignment proposal (the PA did it in 2012, after all), but it doesn't seem to require the CBA to do it.

If it's about hockey-related revenue, the league has two middle fingers and can ram through the first round of expansion. After all, what's that old saying? It's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission?

 

[Yukon Joe]

Except that the only source of "contention" in the CBA negotiations, this time around, is going to be HRR and how it is defined and included into the total income "pie." It's not so much the split % but what is included. The expansion fees will figure into that more heavily than last time, since expansion fees are quadruple (or more) since the last CBA. Never underestimate money being a stumbling block in any negotiation.

Do you have any reason to think players want to include expansion fees in HRR? Or is this just your guess?

I can see huge problems with including expansion fees in HRR because they are so large, yet so irregular. First number I can find is NHL had $6.8 billion in revenue in 2023. If you add $1.2 billion that's suddenly $8 billion - a 17% increase, which would suggest a 17% increase in the cap.

But because that's only a one-time payment total league revenue would go down the following year, which would mess up the cap.

Not to mention the owners would fight like crazy to prevent sharing that money.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Yeah... there's not really anything there. I think it all hinges on what players might ask for, versus what they actually want.

Even then... let's say they announce the application process to Atlanta and Houston ...*checks calendar*... next week, I'm not sure how realignment plays in to the CBA. I know the NHLPA can accept or reject a realignment proposal (the PA did it in 2012, after all), but it doesn't seem to require the CBA to do it.

If it's about hockey-related revenue, the league has two middle fingers and can ram through the first round of expansion. After all, what's that old saying? It's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission?

So just from the past dozen years or so... when Atlanta moved to Winnipeg the league wanted to do a re-alignment (they went from 6 divisions to 4) but had to get the NHLPA's approval. This led to Winnipeg playing two seasons in the South-East division.

But since then - Vegas and Seattle have been added. No wider re-alignment was done - Arizona (now Utah) was moved to the central, Vegas and Seattle put in the pacific, and everyone else stayed the same. No need for the NHLPA to sign off.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Last 3 NBA sales have been $3.5 bill for the Bucks, $4 bill for the Suns and $3 bill for the Hornets. So, $2 bill is low for the Blazers unless that was over 3 years ago.

Allen's estate from all reports, says that the teams must be sold (not for his sister Jody to pass onto someone else). But, no timeline for when that is to occur.

The last offer I am aware of was from Phil Knight (and others) in the spring of 2022. Looking at Statista, that would have been right about their value at that point. Last year that value had balooned up to around $3B, probably due to the sales you are talking about. Since, Jody Allen has not said anything since that would lead anyone to believe that making an offer for the team would be any more successful today.

The only reason to believe an offer might be more successful today is she seems to be having less "fun" as the acting owner. Since going to the conference finals in 2018-19, they have finished above .500 once, been to the playoffs twice (and not in the last three years), and been on a downward trend overall. But, where she goes from here is anybody's guess.

The arena situation in Portland is fine, but the potential owners are locked in a waiting game.

 

[sneakytitz]

Not to mention the owners would fight like crazy to prevent sharing that money.

Which is why you would think they (NHL+BOG) would be pushing expansion through, at least up to 34, before the current CBA expires in 2 years (almost to the day). With the current CBA, owners have no obligations to share that money because expansion fees are not part of HRR. You would think they wouldn't even want that possibility on the negotiation table.

 

[StreetHawk]

The last offer I am aware of was from Phil Knight (and others) in the spring of 2022. Looking at Statista, that would have been right about their value at that point. Last year that value had balooned up to around $3B, probably due to the sales you are talking about. Since, Jody Allen has not said anything since that would lead anyone to believe that making an offer for the team would be any more successful today.

The only reason to believe an offer might be more successful today is she seems to be having less "fun" as the acting owner. Since going to the conference finals in 2018-19, they have finished above .500 once, been to the playoffs twice (and not in the last three years), and been on a downward trend overall. But, where she goes from here is anybody's guess.

The arena situation in Portland is fine, but the potential owners are locked in a waiting game.

Jody from what I understand lives in the Seattle region. She's not one, like her brother, to drop in for a game via private jet and fly home afterwards. So, I'd wager that she sells the Blazers & Moda Center before the seahawks.

 

[StreetHawk]

Agreed. I guess what I'm saying is that we don't know if Fertitta's seeming ambivalence towards hockey would result in neglect or a hands-off approach, so saying they'd be better without him as the owner if premature. The other question is whether or not the NHL is so desperate to get into the market that they're willing to risk the possibility of neglect, or if they've been convinced otherwise.

Not really an NBA fan, so can't really say how he's handled the ownership of the Rockets. Don't think they've been a final 4 team under his ownership. But, really no clue how he's regarded as an owner.

If not Fertitta, would need another group that has looked into building another arena outside of Harris county. That's the downside of being 2nd to the market with an NBA team. Can very much be dependent on the NBA owner. Sometimes they are like Smith in Utah and sometimes can be like Fertitta in Houston.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Jody from what I understand lives in the Seattle region. She's not one, like her brother, to drop in for a game via private jet and fly home afterwards. So, I'd wager that she sells the Blazers & Moda Center before the seahawks.

The weird thing is though is that Allen died back in 2018.

Now winding up a multi-billion dollar estate is going to take quite awhile, but 6 years is really unusual. It starts to seem like Jody Allen likes being the owner of these teams, albeit only as a trustee.

 

[StreetHawk]

The weird thing is though is that Allen died back in 2018.

Now winding up a multi-billion dollar estate is going to take quite awhile, but 6 years is really unusual. It starts to seem like Jody Allen likes being the owner of these teams, albeit only as a trustee.

There is no timeline from what people who have looked into this estate have said, in terms of when Jody needs to sell the teams. So, it's really up to Jody when she decides to step aside. So long as she's in charge of the Blazers, I don't see Portland getting an NHL team, as I don't think Jody would look to add to the sports portfolio. The newly awarded WNBA in Portland is led by RAJ sports, not Vulcan (Allen).

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Jody from what I understand lives in the Seattle region. She's not one, like her brother, to drop in for a game via private jet and fly home afterwards. So, I'd wager that she sells the Blazers & Moda Center before the seahawks.

I think you are right about the order of things. Since there is no timeline to the sale of the assets of the trust, she may well hold the Seahawks until she leaves this earth. I don't expect her to hold onto the Blazers and Moda Center until her dying breath. But, it really comes down to when she decides she has had enough.

I just read that according to Forbes, the Seahawks are worth $5.45B (this year). So, she is sitting on an estate with that, the $3.5B or so the Blazers are probably worth today (it was $3B a year ago), and whatever Moda is worth.

I agree with your conclusion to @Yukon Joe . I don't see her adding an NHL team in Portland to portfolio, and I don't see any of the other potential Blazer buyers doing so, either, at least while the Blazers status is "coming soon" for whatever soon means.

 

[sneakytitz]

https://www.chron.com/sports/article/tilman-fertitta-nhl-team-houston-19789684.php

"The NHL would be great in Houston, and they're looking to expand," Fertitta said at the unveiling of the Memorial Herman Houston Rockets Training Facility. "We're hoping that no team right now meets the price that they want [for] the expansion team. We're hoping somehow we can get the team by being one the best cities in America and paying the right price."

 

[StreetHawk]

I think you are right about the order of things. Since there is no timeline to the sale of the assets of the trust, she may well hold the Seahawks until she leaves this earth. I don't expect her to hold onto the Blazers and Moda Center until her dying breath. But, it really comes down to when she decides she has had enough.

I just read that according to Forbes, the Seahawks are worth $5.45B (this year). So, she is sitting on an estate with that, the $3.5B or so the Blazers are probably worth today (it was $3B a year ago), and whatever Moda is worth.

I agree with your conclusion to @Yukon Joe . I don't see her adding an NHL team in Portland to portfolio, and I don't see any of the other potential Blazer buyers doing so, either, at least while the Blazers status is "coming soon" for whatever soon means.

Forbes for 2023 has the blazers ranked #22, 2 spots below the Bucks but about a couple of spots ahead of the hornets. Seems about right given their market.

nFL is stupid money now. Each team regardless of situation is going for more and more. Commanders sold more than Denver and need a new stadium.

For the Hawks, per agreement with city and Lumen Field the city would get 10% of the proceeds if they were sold before May 2025. But with the change at HC figure that Jody is keeping the team for a while orherwise she’d have ridden it out with Pete.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Forbes for 2023 has the blazers ranked #22, 2 spots below the Bucks but about a couple of spots ahead of the hornets. Seems about right given their market.

nFL is stupid money now. Each team regardless of situation is going for more and more. Commanders sold more than Denver and need a new stadium.

For the Hawks, per agreement with city and Lumen Field the city would get 10% of the proceeds if they were sold before May 2025. But with the change at HC figure that Jody is keeping the team for a while orherwise she’d have ridden it out with Pete.

The thing about the NFL though - is each team is a license to print money. It's valuations are a lot more understandable than other pro sports teams.

 

[LadyStanley]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1838702161649373646

Not on upcoming BOG meeting agenda

 

[dj4aces]

So just from the past dozen years or so... when Atlanta moved to Winnipeg the league wanted to do a re-alignment (they went from 6 divisions to 4) but had to get the NHLPA's approval. This led to Winnipeg playing two seasons in the South-East division.

But since then - Vegas and Seattle have been added. No wider re-alignment was done - Arizona (now Utah) was moved to the central, Vegas and Seattle put in the pacific, and everyone else stayed the same. No need for the NHLPA to sign off.

Oh, I know. I remember their plan was to have four separate conferences, and I believe that's why the NHLPA nixed it. But if we're sticking with the four division model we have now, it's easy to just slot Houston into the Central and Atlanta into the Metro. Wipe hands on pants, no realignment necessary -- unless that's what the owners want. Even then, I don't believe realignment is a CBA issue, I think that's a separate issue entirely.

 

[StreetHawk]

The weird thing is though is that Allen died back in 2018.

Now winding up a multi-billion dollar estate is going to take quite awhile, but 6 years is really unusual. It starts to seem like Jody Allen likes being the owner of these teams, albeit only as a trustee.

Jody did work with Paul with Vulcan sports, so it is not like she is an outsider to the sports world and has no interest in it. Easier for her to attend 8/9 home games on a Sunday than it is to fly down to Portland to watch 41 basketball games.