ESPN Top 10 Defenseman in the NHL

Buck Naked

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Aug 18, 2016
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Sure any model that has Makar,Fox, McAvoy 8,9 and 10th for Norris should be trusted eh?

Care to provide your work? Not saying I think Dom's list is neccessarily correct, but I never get people who come in and shoot down those models without explaining why with their own numbers. If you're skilled enough to debunk his model and work, you should be able to provide something better?
 
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majormajor

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Jun 23, 2018
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That's a surprisingly good list. I like Dobson but I'm not sure I'd bump anyone off this list.

Hedman. If they're going to look past EK's production and pedigree and look at his overall game, then they should do the same with Hedman, who can barely play defense anymore.
 

Rowlet

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Makar at -7 for D+/- is wild, absolutely hilarious that some Avs fans' narrative that Hughes is an offense only player turned out to be nothing but projection.

I knew Hughes was dumpstering him in defensive metrics but to see him so far down the list is unexpected.

The people thinking the model is unreliable because it has mainstays like Makar, Fox, Heiskanen so low are misreading the data, it's actually a scathing indictment of voters and how they'll vote based on name and eye test only.

Also good for Dobson and Bouchard for proving doubters wrong
 

Rowlet

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Yep, sorta funny how the stats will make people question the collection method before exploring their own biases.

I personally had Dobson in the #5 range, so I'm not shocked to see him at #3, but I had Bouchard at like 8, so it's cool to see him be at #2
 
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Regal

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Mar 12, 2010
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Makar at -7 for D+/- is wild, absolutely hilarious that some Avs fans' narrative that Hughes is an offense only player turned out to be nothing but projection.

I knew Hughes was dumpstering him in defensive metrics but to see him so far down the list is unexpected.

The people thinking the model is unreliable because it has mainstays like Makar, Fox, Heiskanen so low are misreading the data, it's actually a scathing indictment of voters and how they'll vote based on name and eye test only.

Also good for Dobson and Bouchard for proving doubters wrong

Why? It’s not like every model says the same thing.
 
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AvroArrow

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Jun 10, 2011
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WHERE'S RIELLY?!

As a Leafs fan, I am exceptionally outraged. I expected 5 Leafs players on this list. No, don't ask me for "justification" because that's just a word and your "statistics" are just numbers.

Edit: the obvious answer to my question is "suspended", so high five if that was your immediate response.
Are you ok ? What a strange post.

Overall the list isn't bad (surprisingly). Hedman is a bit high for my liking, seems just like a reputation thing, he's still a great player but not 6th best in the league imo.
 

Rowlet

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Why? It’s not like every model says the same thing.

I'd imagine because some of those model designers also have preconceived biases in favor of the players we deem "elite."

When someone designs a model and it says Heiskanen isn't top 10 while Makar and Fox are barely top 10, most model designers will think their model is flawed instead of recognizing that potentially those players aren't as good as previously thought. This may cause a lot of models to be thrown out before we see them, which furthers the notion that those players are good.

It's sort of like that famous picture of the plane with all the bullet holes which explains survivorship bias, we only see the models that say what we want them to because people will be overly critical of models that say the opposite.

A model that says Makar is the 9th best defensemen in the league this year is much more likely to be discarded than one that says he's top 2, especially when the narrative is that Hughes, the other top 2, is weak defensively and only contributes offensively. If the model that says he's 9th says that Makar is the worst defensively among the top 8, the community will ignore it because of their own preconceived biases that Makar is the stronger player defensively.
 

wetcoast

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Nov 20, 2018
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Care to provide your work?
My work?

I'm not a model guy why would I choose a model to evaluate how good the top Dmen in the NHL are?

Those models have inputs that the person creating the models weighs, real life doesn't work that way specifically.


Not saying I think Dom's list is neccessarily correct, but I never get people who come in and shoot down those models without explaining why with their own numbers. If you're skilled enough to debunk his model and work, you should be able to provide something better?
So you want me to justify my own model to debunk why
Bouchard at 2
Burns at 4
Forsling at 5
Fox at 8
Makar at 9
McAvoy at 10.

It sounds like you don't agree with Forsling at 5th, is that just your opinion or do you have a model to back that up?

Can you post your model or any of your homework then?
Same to for the above if you agree with the model and the ranking please say so if not provide your own model as that seems to your own personal bar.
 
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wintersej

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Nov 26, 2011
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Care to provide your work? Not saying I think Dom's list is neccessarily correct, but I never get people who come in and shoot down those models without explaining why with their own numbers. If you're skilled enough to debunk his model and work, you should be able to provide something better?

I remember when Hampus Lindholm was a replacement level defenseman according to the models. And then was magically 4th in the Norris after leaving Anaheim.
 

wetcoast

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Nov 20, 2018
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Why? It’s not like every model says the same thing.
What we need is a model to objectively ranks the models.

I remember when Hampus Lindholm was a replacement level defenseman according to the models. And then was magically 4th in the Norris after leaving Anaheim.
Funny that team context might mean something eh?

Or that with models which are 100% number driven might rank players differently from season to season?

Just for fun what did Dom's model say about last season?
 

TheImpatientPanther

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Jan 17, 2013
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My work?

I'm not a model guy why would I choose a model to evaluate how good the top Dmen in the NHL are?

Those models have inputs that the person creating the models weighs, real life doesn't work that way specifically.



So you want me to justify my own model to debunk why
Bouchard at 2
Burns at 4
Forsling at 5
Fox at 8
Makar at 9
McAvoy at 10.

It sounds like you don't agree with Forsling at 5th, is that just your opinion or do you have a model to back that up?


Same to for the above if you agree with the model and the ranking please say so if not provide your own model as that seems to your own personal bar.

Well you haven't provided anything of substance other than a weak joke so are we suppose to just take your word and ESPN as gospel?

I've provided a couple bits of data showing Forsling is a pretty solid defenseman and you joked if he'd even be a top 100 D.

Sooo ya? Not sure you will admit you're wrong or just hopefully deflect the attention away by throwing out strawman rebuttals?
 

bb_fan

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Feb 27, 2002
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It's a more balanced list because it's a survey of players and team personnel. Half of the Top 10 current point producers among D were left off. Dahlin, Dobson and Rielly had some support. Bouchard and Dunn were not mentioned at all.
maybe because its a list of top ten Defensemen, not top scoring defensemen.
 

Buck Naked

Can't-Stand-Ya
Aug 18, 2016
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My work?

I'm not a model guy why would I choose a model to evaluate how good the top Dmen in the NHL are?

Those models have inputs that the person creating the models weighs, real life doesn't work that way specifically.



So you want me to justify my own model to debunk why
Bouchard at 2
Burns at 4
Forsling at 5
Fox at 8
Makar at 9
McAvoy at 10.

It sounds like you don't agree with Forsling at 5th, is that just your opinion or do you have a model to back that up?


Same to for the above if you agree with the model and the ranking please say so if not provide your own model as that seems to your own personal bar.

This is his numbers from early december, when Makar was playing on his absolute top level. Since then I think everyone watching the Avs have seen that he's not been as good as in the start and he's therefore fallen down. He was also the top D by far by Dom's model the year he won the Norris, an indication that it does something right. MacKinnon is missing on this list. Why? Well, it wasn't until December when he went into crazy mode. When this list was published he was 9th in scoring and probably right outside. I mean, since it reflects Makar (and others) when he's awesome, shouldn't it also then reflect when he's not as good?

snipsnip.JPG
 
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wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
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This is his numbers from early december, when Makar was playing on his absolute top level. Since then I think everyone watching the Avs have seen that he's not been as good as in the start and he's therefore fallen down. He was also the top D by far by Dom's model the year he won the Norris, an indication that it does something right. MacKinnon is missing on this list. Why? Well, it wasn't until December when he went into crazy mode. When this list was published he was 9th in scoring and probably right outside. I mean, since it reflects Makar (and others) when he's awesome, shouldn't it also then reflect when he's not as good?

View attachment 820150
Ty for not answering my question.
 

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