ESPN Top 10 Defenseman in the NHL

[Agent Zuuuub]

Man I resisted last post but using that line of thinking EK65 should have more than 37 points right now right?

Makar is elite offensively you need to move on.

Penguins suck lol. they didn't make the playoffs last year either and now only have 1 elite line.

and Karlsson is 33 dude, his stats would be impressive for like 90 percent of d in the league let alone for d 30+.

 

[wetcoast]

For an ESPN list it’s not bad. Doughty sticks out as clearly still not a top 10D, but can’t argue the other 9 or even their placement really

I can see why they had Doughty on the list but yes he does stick out somewhat.

Penguins suck lol. they didn't make the playoffs last year either and now only have 1 elite line.

and Karlsson is 33 dude, his stats would be impressive for like 90 percent of d in the league let alone for d 30+.

Your orginal point was misguided just like TB fans try as well.

The Avs second line center has 29 points, the Avs offense is 3 guys then a real mish mash that's probably in the bottom 1/3 of the league.

And yes the Pens do suck this year no big surprise there only a couple of guys playing as well as they should and a ton of guys under performing.

 

[wintersej]

Goals for and against are not Dom's model. Those are stats that's been used since the dawn of man and when a player has been in the ice for as many GA in a little bit over half a season as in a whole season two years ago when he won the Norris, I think something is different from that year. Dom is basing his model on some of those stats though, but what I mentioned in my last post was just plain percentages from Naturalstattrick. And what you're saying then is that they should never be relied upon, even when adding some context to it? Just look at the point totals and go by reputation?

I think the stats are an awesome starting point to then run off and scout "why?".

Hampus Lindholm, for example, had garbage results in Anaheim and then moved to Boston and had amazing results. The fancy models had him as a replacement level defenseman and had his contract ranked as one of the worst in the game. The vast majority of guys are heavily influenced by the guys around them and the system at play and what they are asked to do in it. Lindholm in Anaheim was on a terrible team being asked to baby sit a young defenseman. His on ice results and even relative results were horrible. He moved to a team with support around him and he was able to shine to 4th in the Norris voting last year and virtually tied with Marchand as the third best player on the Bruins this year according to the same Dom model that thought he was a garbage player before. Lindholm is an extreme example, but is illustrative of how much context is hard to capture.

Of course, who here has the time to go off and scout Frosling in person for large enough of a sample size to understand how what Florida is doing is playing to his strengths and how transferable that is elsewhere and blah blah. Shit professional scouts get that wrong all the time. All the time. It's hard even with the eye test and the fancy stats in your arsenal.

Anyway, I'm sympathetic to both sides. I think that stats are super helpful. They are also not the closing argument.

 

[Buck Naked]

I think the stats are an awesome starting point to then run off and scout "why?".

Hampus Lindholm, for example, had garbage results in Anaheim and then moved to Boston and had amazing results. The fancy models had him as a replacement level defenseman and had his contract ranked as one of the worst in the game. The vast majority of guys are heavily influenced by the guys around them and the system at play and what they are asked to do in it. Lindholm in Anaheim was on a terrible team being asked to baby sit a young defenseman. His on ice results and even relative results were horrible. He moved to a team with support around him and he was able to shine to 4th in the Norris voting last year and virtually tied with Marchand as the third best player on the Bruins this year according to the same Dom model that thought he was a garbage player before. Lindholm is an extreme example, but is illustrative of how much context is hard to capture.

Of course, who here has the time to go off and scout Frosling in person for large enough of a sample size to understand how what Florida is doing is playing to his strengths and how transferable that is elsewhere and blah blah. Shit professional scouts get that wrong all the time. All the time. It's hard even with the eye test and the fancy stats in your arsenal.

Anyway, I'm sympathetic to both sides. I think that stats are super helpful. They are also not the closing argument.

I completely agree with you. One is not helpful without the other.

So, let's try to find some context to this and see if we can explain why this is.

With MacKinnon, Makar's been on the ice for 34 goals for and 29 goals against 5v5 this year. If you put that in per 60, 3.54 GF/60 and 3.02 GA/60.
Without MacKinnon, Makar's been on the ice for 9 goals for and 13 goals against 5v5 this year. If you put that in per 60, 2.16 GF/60 and 3.12 GA/60.
Without Makar, MacKinnon's been on the ice for 26 goals for and 16 goals against 5v5 this year. If you put that in per 60, 4.5 GF/60 and 2.77 GA/60.
Now, Colorado without any of the two on the ice scores 2.22 GF/60 and lets in 2.43 GA/60.

Let's do the same thing but with Devon Toews who also plays the tough minutes on Colorado and who actually spends more time away from MacKinnon than Makar.

Toews with MacKinnon, 30GF, 28GA (3.07 GF/60, 2.86 GA/60)
Toews without MacKinnon, 14GF, 13GA (2.2 GF/60 2.05 GA/60)
MacKinnon without Toews, 30GF, 17GA (5.35 GF/60. 3.03 GA/60)

This can be done with basically any set of data. Goals, shots, expected goals, scoring chances, and it will all come out the same. The question was asked on the last page if Makar is dependant on MacKinnon. Well, looking at the numbers, wouldn't you say that's the case? 2.16 GF/60 is below Mario Ferraro on the Sharks. I don't know, but that doesn't sound like a player who is currently running his own game at an elite level offensively at the moment.

I can't explain this, so maybe others can chime in to explain why Makar's 5v5 numbers look so average this season while so many others on the same team, even his partner, looks a lot better? I mean, couldn't it just be that he's not having his best season?