Traded Erik Brännström - D - Part III

[bicboi64]

He's playing great on the 3rd and can step up if any of the top 4 need reduced minutes for any reason, its not like Holden, or anyone in our system is an upgrade as our #5 or 6 right now.

Brannstrom is doing everything we need him to for us to win

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I know I already wrote a long post, but I want to hammer a fact into place. Ottawa needs someone next season who is good, cheap, and experienced. For people who seem to think Brannstrom is replaceable, here's the list of RHD who made under 1.5M last season, will be RFAs, and played 20+ games in the NHL. Also, if you're like Methot and a "size queen", above 5'11. So here is the list of the players we would have to replace Brannstrom with from a cost, size, and experience perspective. Feel free to identify those you think might be available and an upgrade on Brannstrom:

Seider
Bjork
Peeke
Liljegren
Carrier
Bouchard
Lundkvist
MItchell
Borgen
Timmins
Barron
Schneider
Perbix
Foote
Lindstrom
Fitzgerald
Kovacevic (weirdly I almost missed him because he goes from ELC to 1 year guaranteed to UFA)

Of those, I think only Peeke, Carrier, Mitchell, and Borgen are possibly available. To me, Peeke and Mitchell are worse, and Carrier and Borgen are slightly better but both are two years older. I don't see any alternative to Branny, but maybe I missed someone.

Edit: Here's the UFAs who who are Righties and played 20 games.

Klingberg
Dumba
Johnson
Severson
Shattenkirk
Hamonic
Gudas
Holl
Mayfield
Stecher
Braun
Clifton
TvR
Chenn
Stone
Burroughs

Klingberg, Dumba, Holl, Gudas, Hamonic, Shattenkirk, Mayfield and Clifton are going to be out of budget (unless Hamonic offers a discount). Braun and Stone are done. Bourroughs and Stecher are worse than Brannstrom. Schenn and TvR are the only legitimate upgrades and both will pick where they want to play. It is unlikely either will choose Ottawa. No idea what Johnson is doing, but probably re-signing with Colorado.

 

[Sensinitis]

Brann is still very young for a D, has shown noticeable progression defensively, comes relatively cheap, is better than your league average bottom pair D and can pretty easily move up in the top 4 in case of injury.

Whether you’re a big fan or not I don’t see the argument in not keeping him unless you’re able to deal him for a good top 9 F.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

If we make playoffs he'll probably get exposed.

 

[Tuna99]

If we make playoffs he'll probably get exposed.

Maybe. We can match up pretty well with Chychryn now, but if he does get exposed that’s fine I’d rather he get the test and fail then not have the test at all, but I think Branny will do better then most.

Many small D are afraid (remember Preissing) , Branny isn’t afraid. He won’t back down so be good to see his limit

 

[Micklebot]

He's wrong and his logic makes no sense based on the situation. I doubt he has seriously analyzed it. The core of his argument is that Brannstrom is an offensive defenseman who is being held back from playing offensively by a lack of opportunity (or will be). That's only true if you think he's being held back minutes-wise or opportunity-wise AND that such a situation would be remedied elsewhere. Consider:

Brannstrom is 23 and playing in the NHL, most guys are still in college or the AHL. So he isn't being held back from NHL playing time since he's playing a regular shift and isn't being healthy scratched.

Is an extra shift or two 5v5 on another team REALLY going to make all the difference? Unless you think he should be getting 19+ minutes a game, he's playing exactly what he should be playing. While his advanced metrics , giveaway/takeaways, hits, blocks, etc.. have all improved year on year, his play is not compelling a promotion either. Same goes for the powerplay. If he can't generate offense 5v5 he shouldn't be on a PP on any team regardless, so giving him more opportunity there isn't warranted.

What about another team? While another team might be less deep than Ottawa will be next season, giving him a few extra, unwarranted, minutes isn't going to make him a better player. Since he isn't displacing anyone in Ottawa with his play, he's likely getting as many minutes (or close to it) no matter what team he plays on.

What about next season on Ottawa, won't he be displaced? If we look forward, there is 4 NHL defensemen in Ottawa who will likely command more ice time than Brannstrom. That said, his role is unlikely to change since he has very little experienced competition on the bottom pairing. Kleven, JBD, and Thomson are all very inexperienced and Ottawa doesn't have the cap space for competition to be brought in to displace him. There is also the potential to play right side in the top-4 with Chychrun. That's about as good an opportunity that exists for a guy to prove he is worth extra icetime.

Maybe in a year or two there might be reason to think he's facing too much competition for top-4 ice time, but in order for that to be true, he has to be able to show it on the bottom pairing first, which he hasn't really done. All he has shown is competence, not excellence. If, next season he puts up some very respectable numbers on the bottom pairing but depth prevents moving him up, or there is some serious competition on the bottom pairing which threatens to put him in the press box (which is below the quality of his play), I could see an argument that he is being held back, but right now I think he's being appropriately used.

Consider this, Brannstrom looks best when one of the top 4 is out injured and he's had to step up into that role. Lots of rebuilding teams where he can play that role.

He gets no PP time here, other teams might have room for him on one their units. He won't be getting much PP time here with Chabot, Chychrun and Sanderson ahead of him.

His 5v5 production is similar to Chabot's on a per 60 basis this year, only he's getting far less time playing with the top 6, this team doesn't really produce 5v5 so if you want him to prove himself offensively when even Chabot has struggled to put up points 5v5, well let's just there more to at play to why he hasn't scored 5v5 than just him.

We can try playing him on the right side, but DJ has been hesitant to do so in the past, maybe that changes with Chychrun here, but right now it's a tough path ahead for him if he wants a bigger role, which I think he's ready for. He's been a versitile player who can kill penalties, has made big strides in his defensive game, and has shown the ability to get the puck up ice to the OZ, but the roles we have slots for are more defensive oriented, unless that changes I see the same thing York does, a player who needs a change of scenery to get the opportunity that will best serve his future

 

[JD1]

I think Brannstrom is ready for a bigger role and can handle a bigger role but there isn't a bigger role for him.

He's been good in stretches covering in the top 4 and he's been good when asked to qb the PP.

I wouldn't want to run with Sanderson, Chabot and Chychrun down the left. I'd flip one and along with Zub that's a terrific top 4. That leaves Brannstrom playing 3LD and imo ideally with Hamonic back in a lower AAV 3RD role.

We've got 7 guys that have played 300 minutes 5 on 5. Of those, Brannstrom has the best
CF
xGF
SCF
SF

He's clearly helping drive play in a positive way in the role he's in.
I'd try to sign him to a multi year deal at the lowest AAV possible. But I wouldn't at all be surprised if his agent whispers in PD's ear that he wants a trade to somewhere where he will get more opportunity

I think his play warrants more opportunity, we just don't have opportunity to give.

 

[JD1]

Another thing about Brannstrom and his very positive play metrics

What's the difference between Brannstrom and top 4 minutes? Maybe 2 minutes a night 5 on 5 plus 3 minutes a night QBing a PP.

With an extra 2 minutes a night he's still going to have positive play metrics and I think he can do a decent job as a PP QB

 

[Golden_Jet]

I still think Holden plays against big heavy teams, as they will want to rotates him in, to keep him fresh as well.

 

[guyzeur]

I still think Holden plays against big heavy teams, as they will want to rotates him in, to keep him fresh as well.

You could be right

I'm happy Brann got a good game but seems to me he's being put in a situation to succeed meaning he's being sheltered by being paired with the best defenseman of the team!

Great job DJ.

 

[Xspyrit]

He needs to be traded. He's an offensive defenceman being asked to play a safer game than he should be, because of where he's at on the depth chart. We should be going after a more defensive guy to replace him, and give Brann the opportunity to be more than a 6D.

If he's worthless I'd keep him though. He's better than Holden.

Why would he need to be traded? He doesn't have 1st round pick value anymore so he's worth more to us than anything he would return. Plus (from 12 days ago, I'm sure it has gotten better with how well the team is doing) :

Bumping this, changing the criteria to 250 ES minutes. Will also do CF and CA instead of CF and CF% (to avoid confusion)

Brannstrom among the 220 D-men who have at least played 250 ES minutes :

- 17th in CF/60
- 21st in CA/60
- 37th in SF/60
- 17th in SA/60
- 35th in xGF/60
- 18th in xGA/60
- 31st in SCF/60
- 24th in SCA/60
- 81st in HDCF/60
- 64th in HDCA/60

Sure he plays "only" 15:41 per game and is a bit sheltered at ES but that's some very good results. Just needs to put up more points, which he has started to do recently (5 pts in his last 9 games). Maybe the 2nd half of the season will balance out his production as his on-ice units were vastly underscoring his xGF in the first half

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Consider this, Brannstrom looks best when one of the top 4 is out injured and he's had to step up into that role. Lots of rebuilding teams where he can play that role.

He gets no PP time here, other teams might have room for him on one their units. He won't be getting much PP time here with Chabot, Chychrun and Sanderson ahead of him.

His 5v5 production is similar to Chabot's on a per 60 basis this year, only he's getting far less time playing with the top 6, this team doesn't really produce 5v5 so if you want him to prove himself offensively when even Chabot has struggled to put up points 5v5, well let's just there more to at play to why he hasn't scored 5v5 than just him.

We can try playing him on the right side, but DJ has been hesitant to do so in the past, maybe that changes with Chychrun here, but right now it's a tough path ahead for him if he wants a bigger role, which I think he's ready for. He's been a versitile player who can kill penalties, has made big strides in his defensive game, and has shown the ability to get the puck up ice to the OZ, but the roles we have slots for are more defensive oriented, unless that changes I see the same thing York does, a player who needs a change of scenery to get the opportunity that will best serve his future

I do not agree that he has looked best in a top-4 role. He had more opportunities for both points and mistakes, but that is about it. The bigger issue was how he played with better partners, which did seem to have an effect on his play both this season and last. Something that will be remedied by playing with Chychrun or however the defense corps breaks down.

Kleven, Hamonic, and JBD aren't going to take his PP time. The only one who could would be Thomson. Having a lefty play on the right might actually improve his chances to play on the PP. One only needs to look at Chychrun's goal last night to see what I mean. Even if you assume Chabot, Sanderson and Chychrun are locks for the PP, that still allows for one more spot and Zub is unlikely to be a credible block to Brannstrom's PP time.

Brannstrom's points per/60 aren't the same as Chabot's. Chabot typically hits 1.1 per/60 or even 1.5/ per 60. Brannstrom is typically 1/2 that. Yes, Chabot is struggling offensively this season, but that is partially why everyone is complaining about Chabot. Chabot struggling does not make Brannstrom into a better player.

Opportunity comes with trust. DJ has been hesitant because of Brannstrom's inexperience. As he gets more experience and shows more skill (and can play with a better partner), DJ might indeed give him that opportunity. Going to another team but give him more minutes, but won't necessarily make him a better player. That comes from development and growth.

The core argument you seem to be advancing is that he needs opportunity (which he isn't blocked from in Ottawa) or prevented from too much competition (which he doesn't have) to improve or show his excellence. If either of those changes such as him being benched or held on the bottom pair despite excellent results, I'll be happy to agree with you. Personally, I'm of a different opinion. He does need minutes (which he's getting), he needs more experience (which he's getting), he needs a good partner (which he's getting), and he needs to show his excellence (which he will have opportunity to do) for him to progress.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Why would he need to be traded? He doesn't have 1st round pick value anymore so he's worth more to us than anything he would return. Plus (from 12 days ago, I'm sure it has gotten better with how well the team is doing) :

Bumping this, changing the criteria to 250 ES minutes. Will also do CF and CA instead of CF and CF% (to avoid confusion)

Brannstrom among the 220 D-men who have at least played 250 ES minutes :

- 17th in CF/60
- 21st in CA/60
- 37th in SF/60
- 17th in SA/60
- 35th in xGF/60
- 18th in xGA/60
- 31st in SCF/60
- 24th in SCA/60
- 81st in HDCF/60
- 64th in HDCA/60

Sure he plays "only" 15:41 per game and is a bit sheltered at ES but that's some very good results. Just needs to put up more points, which he has started to do recently (5 pts in his last 9 games). Maybe the 2nd half of the season will balance out his production as his on-ice units were vastly underscoring his xGF in the first half

With Chychrun, Chabot, and Sanderson - we don't need a dman that needs to be sheltered in the bottom pairing role.

Trading him for someone like Jeremy Lauzon would be ideal as he would pair well in a defensive role with Harmonic next year. That, or maybe Kleven will be ready.

He's just wasted talent in Ottawa that's all

 

[IranCondraAffair]

With Chychrun, Chabot, and Sanderson - we don't need a dman that needs to be sheltered in the bottom pairing role.

Trading him for someone like Jeremy Lauzon would be ideal as he would pair well in a defensive role with Harmonic next year. That, or maybe Kleven will be ready.

He's just wasted talent in Ottawa that's all

1. Brannstrom isn't being sheltered, he just isn't noticeably displacing anyone in the top-4. If Brannstrom can't do it, Lauzon definitely can't. This creates problem if someone gets hurt. Which happens. Every. Single. Year. Why put a ceiling on your bottom pairing LHD for fit purposes?
2. Brannstrom would be a better fit with Hamonic than Lauzon. you need at least one person to get the puck out.
3.Brannstrom has the added benefit of maybe having an easier time moving into the top-4 by playing on the right side.
4. Lauzon isn't a better player than Brannstrom, he's older and a different style
5. Nothing is being wasted, He's playing NHL minutes, developing, and doing well.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Another really good game from Branny

 

[CornerStone61]

The hate this player gets seemingly only because of his size is mind boggling. He's been fantastic in transition and has been relatively strong defensively the entire season, especially lately, but some people only see what they want to see. It's unfortunate.

 

[Micklebot]

The core argument you seem to be advancing is that he needs opportunity (which he isn't blocked from in Ottawa) or prevented from too much competition (which he doesn't have) to improve or show his excellence. If either of those changes such as him being benched or held on the bottom pair despite excellent results, I'll be happy to agree with you. Personally, I'm of a different opinion. He does need minutes (which he's getting), he needs more experience (which he's getting), he needs a good partner (which he's getting), and he needs to show his excellence (which he will have opportunity to do) for him to progress.

This is a muddled mess ...

1. He is blocked from more opportunity by too much competition, it's absolutely absurd to suggest otherwise with Chychrun, Sanderson and Chabot all ahead of him, three guys that could be top dogs on a lot of teams, and Zub as the clear cut option for the 4th for the top 4

2. He isn't getting a lot of minutes, he's 212th in 5v5 mins/g among the 235 D with 200+ mins, less than guys like Zaitsev, Holden, neither of whom look like they should be regulars at this stage in their career.

3. The experience he's getting is in roles not ideal for his skill set since he's not getting the shifts with offensive players.

4. His most common partner has been Holden who looks done this year, I'm astonished if you think that's a good partner, thankfully he got to play with Chychrun the other night but that doesn't appear to be a long term plan since DJ has already stated he plans to move Chychrun into the top 4.

 

[BUCKLE UP]

I'm not the biggest Brannstrom guy, but I think Chychrun is the perfect partner for him and we're going to see another level to him. He's probably thanking his lucky stars that it's not Jacob Larsson anymore lol

Chabot - Zub
Chychrun - Brannstrom
Sanderson - Hamonic

We finally have a defense core to be proud of. It's exciting times ahead.

 

[KevinRedkey]

1. Brannstrom isn't being sheltered, he just isn't noticeably displacing anyone in the top-4. If Brannstrom can't do it, Lauzon definitely can't. This creates problem if someone gets hurt. Which happens. Every. Single. Year. Why put a ceiling on your bottom pairing LHD for fit purposes?
2. Brannstrom would be a better fit with Hamonic than Lauzon. you need at least one person to get the puck out.
3.Brannstrom has the added benefit of maybe having an easier time moving into the top-4 by playing on the right side.
4. Lauzon isn't a better player than Brannstrom, he's older and a different style
5. Nothing is being wasted, He's playing NHL minutes, developing, and doing well.

We have a different definition of success. He's poor defensively, slow, and small. His best asset is his offense and he has barely produced at the NHL level. Even with injuries, we dont need him at all. He will be gone in the summer for these reasons.

 

[Ice-Tray]

He’s looked good, the D looks good, what’s not to like?

If we can roll three solid pairings now, then we’re in a good spot.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

This is a muddled mess ...

1. He is blocked from more opportunity by too much competition, it's absolutely absurd to suggest otherwise with Chychrun, Sanderson and Chabot all ahead of him, three guys that could be top dogs on a lot of teams, and Zub as the clear cut option for the 4th for the top 4

2. He isn't getting a lot of minutes, he's 212th in 5v5 mins/g among the 235 D with 200+ mins, less than guys like Zaitsev, Holden, neither of whom look like they should be regulars at this stage in their career.

3. The experience he's getting is in roles not ideal for his skill set since he's not getting the shifts with offensive players.

4. His most common partner has been Holden who looks done this year, I'm astonished if you think that's a good partner, thankfully he got to play with Chychrun the other night but that doesn't appear to be a long term plan since DJ has already stated he plans to move Chychrun into the top 4.

I agree that Brannstrom's play hasn't shown us he is more qualified than Sanderson, Chabot, Zub, or Chychrun in the top-4. that said, it isn't that we brought in too many high-quality players and prevented a clear top-4 defenseman from showing his stuff. He simply hasn't shown he is worth those minutes with his play. Do you honestly believe Brannstrom is a top-4 defenseman on a playoff team? Unless you believe that, he's not blocked, he's actually being supported by having good players around him and appropriate matchups and icetime

His minutes are fine. Of guys who have actually played this season (20+ games), he's #176 which is where he should be as a bottom pairing defenseman without a lot of special teams minutes. The guys around him are all the ones I posted earlier. Guys like Stecher, Schenn, Burroughs, Klague, Xhekaj, Lybushkin, Mahura, Cal Foote, CDH, Borgen, Fabbro, Valimaki, Addison, Lauzon, Soucy, Barron, Schneider, Rosen, Lundkvist. Bottom pairing guys. He isn't being healthy scratched, he isn't being relegated 10 10minutes a game like Andreas Englund

"shifts with offensive players." Are you talking about offensive zone time with the top line? Why the heck would we juice a bottom pairing defenseman's opportunities when he's struggling offensively? It makes no sense for us OR for Brannstrom. You seem to have this idea that we can simply deliver easy minutes to Brannstrom on a silver platter, unearned, and he will suddenly become a better player. That's not how it works. Not on Ottawa, and not anywhere else. You might be able to get him for points that way, but that won't make him a better player. What experience in a role are you expecting Brannstrom to have? Is this really just about not being able to offer him powerplay time? As I mentioned, that opportunity might increase now that we have Chychrun, not decrease. Nothing is stopping him from getting better expect his ability to capitalize on those opportunities.

Until a few days ago, the best partner we could offer him was Holden. That is not Brannstrom's fault and he did the best of it. He's pretty typical of what you'll see on bottom pairings around the NHL.

I want to ask again, is Brannstrom RIGHT NOW, to you, a top-4 NHL defenseman being played on the bottom pairing or is he a bottom pairing NHL defenseman?

We have a different definition of success. He's poor defensively, slow, and small. His best asset is his offense and he has barely produced at the NHL level. Even with injuries, we dont need him at all. He will be gone in the summer for these reasons.

Weird that the eye test, the coach, the GM, and every metric availavble disagrees with you

 

[Micklebot]

We have a different definition of success. He's poor defensively, slow, and small. His best asset is his offense and he has barely produced at the NHL level. Even with injuries, we dont need him at all. He will be gone in the summer for these reasons.

I don't see us moving him this summer, he's RFA with no leverage and if nothing else is a nice depth option.

He's pretty mobile, certainly quicker than Holden, I honestly don't find he gets burned by speedy guys to often, so his skating to me isn't an issue

Size is something he lacks, and as a result he can get outmuscled, but he's played to his strength this year moreso than in the past,

His defensive metrics have all been veru strong this year, and the eye test backs up that he has really improved, not sure if people are just stuck on opinions formed from prior years, but this year among Sens D with 20+ gp he is:

1st in CA/60, FA/60, SA/60, xGA/60, SCA/60,
2nd in GA/60, and 3rd in HDCA/60.

hes also become a semi regular on the PK and has been effective in that role.

As for his offense, the whole team had struggled at 5v5 until the last month or so, and he's not on the PP.

I don't see him fitting into our top 4 long term and bottom pair isn't ideal so I expect he'll eventually be moved on but until we have a better option he's great depth, and we don't have anyone internal other than Kleven who I expect is AHL bound next year.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

York isn't wrong, with Chabot, Sanderson and Chychrun ahead oh him there isn't much room for Brannstrom to play in a role he'd thrive in, that's not an indictment on Brannstrom but it will be tough for him to grow as a player here.

I'd still keep him for next year but we will likely look to move him soon,

He’s thriving and growing in his current role. If he played PP his points would be fine. He and Sanderson have similar EV point.

 

[Micklebot]

I agree that Brannstrom's play hasn't shown us he is more qualified than Sanderson, Chabot, Zub, or Chychrun in the top-4. that said, it isn't that we brought in too many high-quality players and prevented a clear top-4 defenseman from showing his stuff. He simply hasn't shown he is worth those minutes with his play. Do you honestly believe Brannstrom is a top-4 defenseman on a playoff team? Unless you believe that, he's not blocked, he's actually being supported by having good players around him and appropriate matchups and icetime

His minutes are fine. Of guys who have actually played this season (20+ games), he's #176 which is where he should be as a bottom pairing defenseman without a lot of special teams minutes. The guys around him are all the ones I posted earlier. Guys like Stecher, Schenn, Burroughs, Klague, Xhekaj, Lybushkin, Mahura, Cal Foote, CDH, Borgen, Fabbro, Valimaki, Addison, Lauzon, Soucy, Barron, Schneider, Rosen, Lundkvist. Bottom pairing guys. He isn't being healthy scratched, he isn't being relegated 10 10minutes a game like Andreas Englund

"shifts with offensive players." Are you talking about offensive zone time with the top line? Why the heck would we juice a bottom pairing defenseman's opportunities when he's struggling offensively? It makes no sense for us OR for Brannstrom. You seem to have this idea that we can simply deliver easy minutes to Brannstrom on a silver platter, unearned, and he will suddenly become a better player. That's not how it works. Not on Ottawa, and not anywhere else. You might be able to get him for points that way, but that won't make him a better player. What experience in a role are you expecting Brannstrom to have? Is this really just about not being able to offer him powerplay time? As I mentioned, that opportunity might increase now that we have Chychrun, not decrease. Nothing is stopping him from getting better expect his ability to capitalize on those opportunities.

Until a few days ago, the best partner we could offer him was Holden. That is not Brannstrom's fault and he did the best of it. He's pretty typical of what you'll see on bottom pairings around the NHL.

I want to ask again, is Brannstrom RIGHT NOW, to you, a top-4 NHL defenseman being played on the bottom pairing or is he a bottom pairing NHL defenseman?


Weird that the eye test, the coach, the GM, and every metric availavble disagrees with you

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this, because I have a very different assessment of how he's played than you, so while you think I want to hand him mins on a silver platter, I think he's shown he can handle the mins as shown by his play when he did move up due to injuries. He's played well with Zub in particular imo.

The GM literally talked him up a few days ago in the post TDL availability, and the coach plays Chabot, Sanderson and Chychrun ahead of him since their all elite which is the whole point, he's burried behind really high end guys.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Another thing about Brannstrom and his very positive play metrics

What's the difference between Brannstrom and top 4 minutes? Maybe 2 minutes a night 5 on 5 plus 3 minutes a night QBing a PP.

With an extra 2 minutes a night he's still going to have positive play metrics and I think he can do a decent job as a PP QB

He’s show with a good defensive partner he can play a top 4 role for a limited amount of time at this stage