Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

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The bullpen overall was always pretty high risk/high reward.

For the record, ZiPS projected the Jays to have the 14th best bullpen in the league (which would have been perfectly fine given the way the offense and starting pitching has gone) after the Yates injury.

So while there was plenty of risk, we've also ended up with close to a worst case scenario. Everyone but Romano (and Mayza, I guess) either regressing, completely falling apart, or getting hurt for the entire season was never anywhere close to the most likely outcome.
 
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The whole season would look completely different if Merryweather had stayed healthy and the team consistently had Romano-Merryweather for the 8th-9th innings. Holy hell did he look dominant in April.
But what in Merryweather's history led you to believe that he can be healthy for any extended period let alone a full season.
 
IIRC there was discussion before the season about whether Merryweather would even get the last bullpen spot so despite him coming out guns blazing to start the year before getting hurt he likely wasn't planned as one of the high leverage pen arms anyway. That felt like plan C
 
The bullpen overall was always pretty high risk/high reward.

For the record, ZiPS projected the Jays to have the 14th best bullpen in the league (which would have been perfectly fine given the way the offense and starting pitching has gone) after the Yates injury.

So while there was plenty of risk, we've also ended up with close to a worst case scenario. Everyone but Romano (and Mayza, I guess) either regressing, completely falling apart, or getting hurt for the entire season was never anywhere close to the most likely outcome.


Meh.

Jays bullpen is

10th in ERA-
22nd in FIP-
12th in xFIP-

For a team that went into the season with literally not one single reliever that had been healthy and productive both the previous 2yrs that's a goddamn miracle.
 
Meh.

Jays bullpen is

10th in ERA-
22nd in FIP-
12th in xFIP-

For a team that went into the season with literally not one single reliever that had been healthy and productive both the previous 2yrs that's a goddamn miracle.

So... they actually cobbled together a decent bullpen?
 

I've said this before but Semien for 3 years 80 million or 4 years and 110 million to me makes sense. If he's going to cost 5 years and 150 million or something, I'm exploring the cost of other options. Marte on a 3 year 70 million dollar deal + trading for Jose Ramirez and putting Biggio at 2B is a potential injection of like 14 war while losing Semien (6.5 approx) and hopefully getting rid of Grich. Hopefully we can get a deal done in the low 100's with Semien though because I do want Semien back it just has to be a fair price.
 
We are in a win win situation with Ray and Semien. If they reject the QO and hit free agency then sign elsewhere we get two 1st round comp picks. If they accept the QO's we have them back on an affordable low risk one year deal and if they end up re-signing with us, the QO around their neck will drop the price and give us a better deal in the end.
 
We are in a win win situation with Ray and Semien. If they reject the QO and hit free agency then sign elsewhere we get two 1st round comp picks. If they accept the QO's we have them back on an affordable low risk one year deal and if they end up re-signing with us, the QO around their neck will drop the price and give us a better deal in the end.

I think the comp pick rules now mean the Jays would get those picks at the end of the 2nd round.
 
Qualifying Offer | Glossary

MLB Draft compensation

Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer is subject to the loss of one or more Draft picks. While a team's highest first-round pick is exempt from forfeiture, any additional first-round picks are eligible. Three tiers of Draft pick forfeiture -- which are based on the financial status of the signing team -- are in place to serve as a penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer.

(Note: Each pick in the first 10 rounds of the Draft has an assigned value, and the total for each of a club's selections equals what it can spend on signing bonuses for players selected in those rounds without incurring a penalty. When a team forfeits a Draft pick, it also surrenders the accompanying bonus pool money associated that pick, independent from any money forfeited from its international bonus pool per the rules below.)


• A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft as well $1 million from its international bonus pool. If such a team signs multiple qualifying offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a Draft pick immediately following the fourth round. The Astros, Cubs and Yankees exceeded the threshold in 2020.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second- and fifth-round picks. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-highest first-round pick and its fourth-round pick.

• A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection in the following year's Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A if -- and only if -- the lost player signs for at least $50 million. If the lost player signs for less than $50 million, the team's compensation pick would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 14 teams qualify for these picks during the 2020-21 offseason: Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its third-round pick. A team with two first-round picks and one pick in each subsequent round would lose its second-round pick.

A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick. If that team loses a free agent, it will be awarded a Draft pick immediately following Competitive Balance Round B. The 13 clubs that fall into this category during the 2020-21 offseason are the Angels, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox and White Sox

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2021 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.


The Draft-pick compensation is also based on the financial status of the free agent's former team

Like standard Draft picks, compensatory picks in a given tier are ordered in accordance with the previous season's standings. If a team with MLB's worst record and a team with a .500 record both lose a free agent that signs for more than $50 million, the team with the worst record would receive the higher of the two compensatory picks.

Players who are unsigned after the start of the Rule 4 Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a draft pick.
 
Trevor Richards is the oldest looking 28 year old in history. He looks old enough to be the dad of 3/4ths the Jays roster
 


Blue Jays using different approaches to re-signing Semien and Ray

2:00 | September 5, 2021

Hazel Mae and Jeff Blair discuss Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien's futures with the Toronto Blue Jays, and updates on Julian Merryweather and Ryan Borucki.
 
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Ive been on an island with a few other posters but im not ready to give up on Jansen just yet.

If you prorate Jansen's career numbers to 650 PAs (the equivalent of a full season) you get 2.5 fWAR which would be 11th all time in Jays history.

Number of Jays to have a 2.5 fWAR or better season at catchers = 5 (Martin, Whitt, Borders, Fletcher and Molina).

Jansen has yet to play a full season.

Same goes for Reese, he has 2.6 fWAR over 383 PAs, of course Reese isnt a 4+ fWAR catcher but he is a solid backup making peanuts.

I got no problem rolling with Jansen, McGuire and/or Kirk until someone offers me something they are worth. Moreno might be better than all 3, so if someone wants to blow our doors down for Kirk, im all for it.
 


Somebody hire this man to replace Jamie Campbell.


Brodie does the studio segments for Sharks broadcasts too. He's pretty good. Some Sharks fans don't like him and think he comes off as a bit of a fake try-hard sometimes, but I enjoy him.



His ongoing rivalry in that video with ex-NHLer Curtis Brown is a joke because Brown is the primary studio analyst for Sharks games. Whenever they do an in-studio demo to explain a play or something Brown ends up drafting Brodie in and usually gives him the business (like when he talks about crease battles he'll have Brodie play the defender and he ends up giving him a few stiff whacks to the back of the leg or a cross check in the lower back) :laugh:

Or there's this

Sharks hosts lose it on-air during funny 'Jumbo Joe' segment - Article - BARDOWN
 
Ive been on an island with a few other posters but im not ready to give up on Jansen just yet.

If you prorate Jansen's career numbers to 650 PAs (the equivalent of a full season) you get 2.5 fWAR which would be 11th all time in Jays history.

Number of Jays to have a 2.5 fWAR or better season at catchers = 5 (Martin, Whitt, Borders, Fletcher and Molina).

Jansen has yet to play a full season.

Same goes for Reese, he has 2.6 fWAR over 383 PAs, of course Reese isnt a 4+ fWAR catcher but he is a solid backup making peanuts.

I got no problem rolling with Jansen, McGuire and/or Kirk until someone offers me something they are worth. Moreno might be better than all 3, so if someone wants to blow our doors down for Kirk, im all for it.
I am there standing on that island with you. Always feel like I am coming to Danny's defense around here :laugh:
 
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Ive been on an island with a few other posters but im not ready to give up on Jansen just yet.

If you prorate Jansen's career numbers to 650 PAs (the equivalent of a full season) you get 2.5 fWAR which would be 11th all time in Jays history.

Number of Jays to have a 2.5 fWAR or better season at catchers = 5 (Martin, Whitt, Borders, Fletcher and Molina).

Jansen has yet to play a full season.

Same goes for Reese, he has 2.6 fWAR over 383 PAs, of course Reese isnt a 4+ fWAR catcher but he is a solid backup making peanuts.

I got no problem rolling with Jansen, McGuire and/or Kirk until someone offers me something they are worth. Moreno might be better than all 3, so if someone wants to blow our doors down for Kirk, im all for it.

I guess the question now is do the Jays trade him/Kirk to fill another need or does Moreno start learning another position (3B)? I also don’t think he’s finished improving offensively.
 
Why on earth would we trade Kirk?

And Moreno has a long way to go to be better than Kirk.

Last 2yrs, active Jays:

1. Guerrero (22): 152wrc+ (.312babip)
2. Springer (31): 147 (.272)
3. Teoscar (28): 131 (.352)
4. Kirk (22): 128 (.300)
5. Semien (30): 120 (.278)
6. Bichette (23): 119 (.342)
 
Kirk never did what Moreno is doing, which is hitting close to 400 WITH power at a higher level and playing good defense. I don't think he's that far away, at least with his bat.

And nobody said Kirk is a bad hitter. We're saying we don't need Kirk especially if Jansen has rediscovered his stroke. This team's biggest issue is pitching and defense and Kirk doesn't help address any of those issues. You stick him with Groshans and you could probably nab a very good 3rd baseman or starter with control.
And don't forget, Kirk is SLOW. Watching him trying to run out doubles and scoring from second is already a nailbiting experience. What happens when he loses a step in a few years?
 
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Kirk never did what Moreno is doing, which is hitting close to 400 WITH power at a higher level and playing good defense. I don't think he's that far away, at least with his bat.

And nobody said Kirk is a bad hitter.

thank god, because what he's done so far at age 21-22 in the bigs is incredible incredible for a DH, let alone a catcher.

As for minor league performance....

Milb:

Kirk (22, Rk-AAA): 675pa, 13.9bb%/10.2k%, .331babip/.317avg, .185iso, 157wrc+
Moreno (21, Rk-AA): 788pa, 6.2bb%/10.8k%, .317babip/.308avg, .193iso, 139wrc+

Full season ball only:

Kirk (A, A+, AAA): 428pa, 14.3bb%/11.2k%, .320babip/ 298avg, .175iso, 156wrc+
Moreno (A, AA): 486pa, 7.4bb%/12.3k%, .314babip/.308avg, .226iso, 151wrc+
 
Dancing around the crux of my point, which was the power and defense, I see. There is nothing to suggest Moreno is so much farther away.
 
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