Blue Jays Discussion: End of the Hand

[Cloned]

Turns out paying over $80M combined for Rendon/Pujols/JUpton is not optimal roster construction.

Can't wait to see who they overpay this offseason with Pujols off the books.

Could be Semien…

 

[Rysto]

Manoah OP, pls nerf

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Turns out paying over $80M combined for Rendon/Pujols/JUpton is not optimal roster construction.

Can't wait to see who they overpay this offseason with Pujols off the books.

But what about getting elite pitchers like Teheran, Nolasco, Bundy, Cobb (I actually kinda like), and Felix Pina over the years?

In the last decade, their best rotation was probably in 2014 (team ERA of 3.58, good for middle of the pack at the time):

Garrett Richards
Jered Weaver
Matt Shoemaker
CJ Wilson
Hector Santiago

Kinda sad when you think about it. Fell off a cliff after that and just downright horrendous in the last few years.

 

[Discoverer]

I still believe that Ohtani is the frontrunner and that it would take something special from Vladdy to win. I just think he's capable of it. He'd have to close the fWAR gap siginificantly (not a huge fan of bWAR in this case because the stats that fWAR is based on for pitching match the old-school stats almost perfectly in Ohtani's case).

One thing that drives me nuts about this situation is that Ohtani's WAR is actually boosted by being a pitcher (albeit, I believe the factor is at most 0.1). He gets a positive defensive adjustment when he's on the mound, when he's essentially acting as a DH as opposed to his team being forced to have a pitcher hit.

There probably should be value to giving his team an extra roster spot when he pitches.

 

[zeke]

AL Traditional Triple Crown Race:

BA: 1.V.Guerrero .318, 2.Y.Gurriel .316, 3.M.Brantley .315, 4.T.Hernandez .308, 5.T.Anderson .302
HR: 1.V.Guerrero 45, 2.S.Ohtani 44, 3.S.Perez 42, 4.M.Semien 39, 5.3-way tie, 34
RBI: 1.J.Abreu 107, 2.S.Perez 105, 3.V.Guerrero 103, 3.R.Devers 103, 5.T.Hernandez 102

AL Advanced Triple Crown Race:

OBP: 1.V.Guerrero .407, 2.Y.Gurriel .385, 3.Y.Moncada .379, 4.A.Judge .378, 5.M.Olson .370
SLG: 1.V.Guerrero .612, 2.S.Ohtani .611, 3.K.Tucker .546, 4.M.Olson .545, 5.M.Semien .542
wOBA: 1.V.Guerreo .425, 2.S.Ohtani .397, 3.A.Judge .389, 4.C.Mullins .383, 5.M.Olson .382, (6.Teoscar .379)


MLB Traditional Triple Crown

BA: 1.S.Marte .322, 2.V.Guerrero .318, 3.Y.Gurriel .316, 4.T.Turner .316, 5.M.Brantley .315
HR: 1.V.Guerrero 45, 2.S.Ohtani 44, 3.S.Perez 42, 4.M.Semien 39, 5.F.Tatis 38
RBI: 1.J.Abreu 107, 2.S.Perez 105, 3.V.Guerrero 103, 3.R.Devers 103, 5.T.Hernandez 102

MLB Advanced Triple Crown

OBP: 1.J.Soto .454, 2.B.Harper .421, 3.V.Guerrero .407, 4.J.Winker .395, 5.S.Marte .394
SLG: 1.F.Tatis .626, 2.V.Guerrero .612, 3.B.Harper .611, 4.S.Ohtani .611, 5.N.Castellanos .574
wOBA: 1.B.Harper .428, 2.V.Guerrero .425, 3.J.Soto .414, 4.F.Tatis .409, 5.J.Winker .405




Only one that's out of reach there I think is the MLB OBP crown.

 

[MS]

Probably the biggest mistake the team made this year from an organizational perspective was not putting Manoah in the rotation to start the season.

He was dominant in spring training (7 innings, 1 base runner, 15K) and I doubt those 3 AAA starts (where he again dominated) really helped his development that much.

If he's in the rotation from the start, the team probably wins 2-3 extra games that Roark/Zeuch/opener/struggling Pearson ended up starting. And Manoah glides to a ROY award.

I get that it's often better to be conservative with prospects, but sometimes you have to read the room and read the player and know when a guy is ready and it's a good time to be aggressive.

 

[Discoverer]

Probably the biggest mistake the team made this year from an organizational perspective was not putting Manoah in the rotation to start the season.

He was dominant in spring training (7 innings, 1 base runner, 15K) and I doubt those 3 AAA starts (where he again dominated) really helped his development that much.

If he's in the rotation from the start, the team probably wins 2-3 extra games that Roark/Zeuch/opener/struggling Pearson ended up starting. And Manoah glides to a ROY award.

I get that it's often better to be conservative with prospects, but sometimes you have to read the room and read the player and know when a guy is ready and it's a good time to be aggressive.

Don't worry, we'll appreciate it in 2027!

 

[zeke]

the actual biggest mistake was going into the season with only one reliable SP.

but, to their credit and praise, they finally did add a second one....albeit just in the nick of time.

 

[theaub]

SWR probably starts in the rotation too and gets absolutely lit up.

 

[Discoverer]

the actual biggest mistake was going into the season with only one reliable SP.

but, to their credit and praise, they finally did add a second one....albeit just in the nick of time.

I can see how someone might consider that a mistake going in, but by the start of May they had Ryu, Ray, Matz, and Manoah in the rotation. Stripling has been a bit of a wild card all along, but going with a bunch of "unreliable" guys in Ray, Matz, and Manoah has turned out to be one of the best decisions they've made this year.

 

[BlueForever75]

The funny thing with everyone stating that our rotation only had 1 reliable starting pitcher to start the season is that our rotation was far from the issue all year. Even without Berrios the rotation was above average from start until now.

Matz, Ray and Ryu were not the issue when we started the season. They gave us what we needed. Stripling also was effective this season. But it was when we added Berrios and Manoah that the staff became the best in the AL.

Our issues at the beginning of the season was more to do with bullpen and coaching than anything else. This is why its a 162 game season, its not a sprint its a marathon and it seems like Shatkins played the field well and made some key acquisitions at the right time.

Dont underestimate the recent acquisitions of players like Lamb, Dyson and promotions of Valera and Smith. Our bench has become solid and Montoya has it down on how to use them.

 

[zeke]

I can see how someone might consider that a mistake going in, but by the start of May they had Ryu, Ray, Matz, and Manoah in the rotation. Stripling has been a bit of a wild card all along, but going with a bunch of "unreliable" guys in Ray, Matz, and Manoah has turned out to be one of the best decisions they've made this year.

They had a bunch of interesting question marks, but had an obvious and glaring need for on more reliable arm.

And, to their credit, they identified the issue and solved it just in the nick of time - and felt it was important enough to give up what many observers felt was an overpay to fill that obvious hole.

 

[BlueForever75]

What the trade deadline did was inject life into this team. The Berrios deal has been 50-50 up to now in results from him personally. But what it did was made this team believe cause management believed.

It cannot be underestimated how Shatkins played a huge role in this turn around. Players always had the skill, but the confidence is what lacked. Trade deadline instilled that into the team.

 

[zeke]

The funny thing with everyone stating that our rotation only had 1 reliable starting pitcher to start the season is that our rotation was far from the issue all year. Even without Berrios the rotation was above average from start until now.

Matz, Ray and Ryu were not the issue when we started the season. They gave us what we needed. Stripling also was effective this season. But it was when we added Berrios and Manoah that the staff became the best in the AL.

Our issues at the beginning of the season was more to do with bullpen and coaching than anything else. This is why its a 162 game season, its not a sprint its a marathon and it seems like Shatkins played the field well and made some key acquisitions at the right time.

Dont underestimate the recent acquisitions of players like Lamb, Dyson and promotions of Valera and Smith. Our bench has become solid and Montoya has it down on how to use them.

Bullpen's job becomes much easier when you have a great starting staff.

 

[TopChedder]

Man I am sick of the networks talking about the Yankees. We just POUNDED the Rays 8-1 but I have to listen for an hour while analysts debate the move of Torres to 2nd base, like who gives a f***.

 

[phillipmike]

Man I am sick of the networks talking about the Yankees. We just POUNDED the Rays 8-1 but I have to listen for an hour while analysts debate the move of Torres to 2nd base, like who gives a f***.

I skimmed through the MLB Networks Instagram account and I believe the last post they had on the Jays was the Berrios deal.

Not that we should care about their coverage but this is one of the hottest teams in baseball breaking MLB records (Ray, Manoah, Ray again, the team, Vladdy) and on the verge of breaking more MLB records (Vladdy and Semien) and there is little coverage. That is fine, keep it that way and Harold Reynolds will be surprised we arent playing hockey when the playoffs comes again.

 

[phillipmike]

Gurriel, Teo and Semien 1-2-3 in September RBIs.

 

[TGB]

What the trade deadline did was inject life into this team.

Actually, the players credit their come from behind victories for rejuvenating the team.

Probably the biggest mistake the team made this year from an organizational perspective was not putting Manoah in the rotation to start the season.

Every year we see spring training phenoms fizzle out in the regular season. From an organizational perspective, letting him prove he wasn't just lucky was very typical.

I skimmed through the MLB Networks Instagram account and I believe the last post they had on the Jays was the Berrios deal.

Americans going to be Americans.

Don't worry. They may not be talking about it, but crushing their beloved Yankees got their attention.

 

[Discoverer]

Bo and Jansen are tied for the 13th in the league in September fWAR. They're 5th and 6th on the Jays (behind Teoscar, Gurriel, Semien - the top three in the league - and Vlad).

To take that further, just for the hell of it, there are 48 position players in the league who have at least 0.5 fWAR this month. For the Jays, that includes Kirk, Grichuk, and Valera. That's a full lineup of the hottest hitters in the league, and it doesn't even include Springer... that's absolutely nuts.

 

[BlueForever75]

Bo and Jansen are tied for the 13th in the league in September fWAR. They're 5th and 6th on the Jays (behind Teoscar, Gurriel, Semien - the top three in the league - and Vlad).

To take that further, just for the hell of it, there are 48 position players in the league who have at least 0.5 fWAR this month. For the Jays, that includes Kirk, Grichuk, and Valera. That's a full lineup of the hottest hitters in the league, and it doesn't even include Springer... that's absolutely nuts.

The crazier thing is we also have Springer that at any given time at 60% can take over a game as well. Imagine if we had a healthy Springer all season where this team would be offensively and in the standings.

 

[The Nemesis]

I skimmed through the MLB Networks Instagram account and I believe the last post they had on the Jays was the Berrios deal.

Not that we should care about their coverage but this is one of the hottest teams in baseball breaking MLB records (Ray, Manoah, Ray again, the team, Vladdy) and on the verge of breaking more MLB records (Vladdy and Semien) and there is little coverage. That is fine, keep it that way and Harold Reynolds will be surprised we arent playing hockey when the playoffs comes again.

*whistle*

 

[rojac]

I skimmed through the MLB Networks Instagram account and I believe the last post they had on the Jays was the Berrios deal.

Not that we should care about their coverage but this is one of the hottest teams in baseball breaking MLB records (Ray, Manoah, Ray again, the team, Vladdy) and on the verge of breaking more MLB records (Vladdy and Semien) and there is little coverage. That is fine, keep it that way and Harold Reynolds will be surprised we arent playing hockey when the playoffs comes again.

People look at Instagram for baseball news? I suspect MLB Network primarily has an Instagram account just to have such a presence. I can’t remember them ever promoting it or discussing it on air.

in any event, I’ve had MLB Network on for about 3 hours and there has been numerous Jays mentions. In fact, I think only the Giants may have been mentioned more — primarily because they clinched a post-season spot last night.

 

[Bjindaho]

Where does Vladdy Jr. sit in the MVP race?

Someone previously had said that Ohtani is winning the MVP unanimously. Mitchell (who has a vote) strongly hints that if the stats are close, Vladdy wins the triple crown and the Jays make the playoffs, he considers that better.

Again, personally, I think Vladdy has to get hot to have a shot. A 1.1 or 1.2 win gap is too much to simply say "but he's having an epic year at the plate"

 

[Bjindaho]

Where does Vladdy Jr. sit in the MVP race?

Someone previously had said that Ohtani is winning the MVP unanimously. Mitchell (who has a vote) strongly hints that if the stats are close, Vladdy wins the triple crown and the Jays make the playoffs, he considers that better.

Again, personally, I think Vladdy has to get hot to have a shot. A 1.1 or 1.2 win gap is too much to simply say "but he's having an epic year at the plate"

Also, I think that that poster doesn't realize that some of the voters are dinosaurs.

In the past, there have been voters who have openly said that they will never vote for a pitcher or DH for MVP, meaning that Ohtani could be left off a ballot or two entirely based on stupidity.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I skimmed through the MLB Networks Instagram account and I believe the last post they had on the Jays was the Berrios deal.

Not that we should care about their coverage but this is one of the hottest teams in baseball breaking MLB records (Ray, Manoah, Ray again, the team, Vladdy) and on the verge of breaking more MLB records (Vladdy and Semien) and there is little coverage. That is fine, keep it that way and Harold Reynolds will be surprised we arent playing hockey when the playoffs comes again.

Thank you for reminding me Harold Reynolds exists. I swear he's trashed out of his mind whenever he speaks.