Via Fangraphs prospect list going into this season.
"Kirk has several elite statistical indicators, both in his surface-level on-field performance and in the background TrackMan data from his 2019 minor league campaign (in addition to what I have over on The Board, a source tells me his expected stats based on quality of contact are very similar to his 2019 Hi-A slash line of .288/.395/.446), and eyeball scouts acknowledge he’s a terrific offensive player.
But there is skepticism surrounding his long-term athletic viability because Kirk is a very husky guy (listed at 5-foot-8, 265) without a body comp precedent in baseball, or arguably across all of pro sports. Because
Christian Vazquez is listed at 5-foot-9, 205 (which is either an embarassing oversight or an intentional lie), the closest measurable comp to Kirk is
José Molina at 5-foot-10, 250, but that’s from when Molina was nearly 40-years-old, whereas Kirk is only 22. It’s very difficult to anticipate what might happen to his frame as he enters his mid-20s, when many other players are thickening up as they reach maturity. All of this creates doubt surrounding whether or not Kirk can catch right now and/or long-term. But because he made his major league debut in 2020, we’ve gotten to see him do it a handful of times, and for a lot of different pitchers, at the big-league level. Kirk’s receiving and framing are okay. He catches on one knee even with runners on base, which makes him especially good at framing balls toward the bottom of the zone. He sets his target then lets his glove hand go slack and works back to the ball as it heads home, which magnifies issues with visual presentation to umpires when his pitcher misses his spot. In general, Kirk just has a slow-moving glove and doesn’t catch pitches at the top of the zone as cleanly as the softy sinkers at the bottom, and I wonder if he’ll have more obvious issues catching power arms, though he did fine in two outings as
Robbie Ray’s backstop. Kirk’s legs set up as wide as they can go when he’s in his modified crouch so he can try to block balls without actually having to move his whole body laterally, and it actually works okay. He’s not a great thrower despite an average arm because he’s so slow out of his crouch, and sometimes he’ll throw from one knee to circumvent this.
My visual evaluation is that he’s a passable defender, not a good one, and I think the Jays deep stable of catchers will dictate that he DHs sometimes and catches at others. The more 1B/DH Kirk has to play during his years of team control, the less valuable he’ll be. He has an all-fields, doubles-oriented approach that prioritizes contact and walks, which I think is great for a catcher but won’t be at first. He’s an everyday big league catcher right now, but he may have an abnormally early decline phase.
(Alternate site, MLB)"
Here's his blurb for the 2020 prospect list:
"A Jeremy Brown situation is brewing here, as Kirk has several elite statistical markers (a tiny 5% swinging strike rate, more career walks than strikeouts, power production in the FSL) and strong TrackMan data (a 91 mph average exit velo, a 48% hard hit rate), but also generates skepticism among eyeball scouts looking at athletes and bodies. Kirk is built like Chris Farley and, like Farley, has moments of surprising grace and athletic brilliance despite his size. But there’s no precedent for someone this big having a robust major league career. The closest comp I could find from a height/weight standpoint is José Molina, who was listed at 6-feet, 250 pounds late in his career. Molina was nearly 40 then, while Kirk — 5-foot-8, 265 pounds — is only 21, and it’s hard to predict what will happen to his build and agility as he ages into his 20s, because pro athletes like this (John Daly, maybe?) don’t really exist.
His age makes the statistical track record even more impressive, though, especially when you consider that Kirk missed a year due to a hand injury and has been young for every level at which he’s raked. He has an all-fields, doubles-oriented approach that prioritizes contact and walks. He’s a 20-grade waddler from base to base, and even visual evaluations of his swing (which features conservative footwork) are mixed despite his numbers. He can turn on balls in and hit balls hard the other way, but this isn’t like
Andrew Vaughn, who scouts will acknowledge has defensive limitations and whose mobility they’ll knock, but about whose athleticism in the batter’s box they all rave. This is a weird one, perhaps a prospect who will be aided by coming changes to the way balls and strikes are called in the event that he begins a physical regression very early, as most scouts believe he will."
