Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Buffdog]

No, apparently I did not know what you meant. I took it as written. Sorry if I misunderstood.

I can't agree with your last paragraph either. I agree that there is a range of skill among observers here. I certainly don't include myself among the best. But I understand what I am watching. And the tables and spreadsheets have helped me be a better observer. But I still understand my eye-test better than I understand many of the spreadsheets. I grasp some of them but I don't have the background in math to be able to get deeply into the subject. There are a few that I suspect are just not very good, not reliably predictive. But that is my opinion and I am not equipped to defend it so I just ignore those.

I don't think there is a substantial number of posters here who would fit those in that last paragraph of yours. There might be a few. There might be none. And I don't accept that you need to have played the game in order to watch it intelligently.

I love watching soccer, but I fully admit that i don't have the same understanding of what I'm watching as someone who has played or coached at a high level. Same with American football, etc.

I like to strum my guitar but I don't understand music like a professional musician

I'm curious why I'd be OK admitting that but people get defensive when I bring it up about hockey. There's no shame it it... I played moderately high level, I hold advanced coaching and officiating certs... but I still admit that I'm not always fully aware of the entirety of what's happening in an NHL game

 

[Xavier Laflamme]

But if he leaves via trade or as a UFA we don’t really lose other than a guy who’s been a good teammate and fan of Winnipeg. That’s something of course, but if he leaves, his salary (whatever it will be next year) stays here and we re-purpose it towards someone else.

We absolutely lose if he leaves in free agency, he is top 3 forward on this team, I don't think some of you understand just how important Ehlers is on this team.

It's not like we are the Rangers and can just get whatever top winger is available in FA to replace him.

 

[slurpee addict]

We absolutely lose if he leaves in free agency, he is top 3 forward on this team, I don't think some of you understand just how important Ehlers is on this team.

It's not like we are the Rangers and can just get whatever top winger is available in FA to replace him.

My point is we get the 8 million in salary that we will probably have to pay. And - I fully understand how good he is but let’s not get too much in love here. He’s good and fun to watch but he isn’t an all star or had a ppg season. And I know we don’t attract the free agents. I also think there’s a reason he hasn’t signed yet. He’s moving on from us. I really do hope I’m wrong though as he’s my favourite player.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Chevy probably waiting on the contract negotiations to see where the market is... he's going to need $14m for Connor by the looks of it

 

[Buffdog]

My point is we get the 8 million in salary that we will probably have to pay. And - I fully understand how good he is but let’s not get too much in love here. He’s good and fun to watch but he isn’t an all star or had a ppg season. And I know we don’t attract the free agents. I also think there’s a reason he hasn’t signed yet. He’s moving on from us. I really do hope I’m wrong though as he’s my favourite player.

I think both players and management are waiting to see what the cap is going to be set at before getting too deep into negotiations

It's possible that Ehlers has interest in other markets and that cap number might give an indication on what he'd be able to get from those, and the type of number he'd need from Chevy to stay

I think the same could possibly be said for Pionk

 

[slurpee addict]

I think both players and management are waiting to see what the cap is going to be set at before getting too deep into negotiations

It's possible that Ehlers has interest in other markets and that cap number might give an indication on what he'd be able to get from those, and the type of number he'd need from Chevy to stay

I think the same could possibly be said for Pionk

Very good points. Thx

 

[10Ducky10]

Chevy probably waiting on the contract negotiations to see where the market is... he's going to need $14m for Connor by the looks of it

Get real.

 

[Channelcat]

Get real.

Ya, Chevy don't play that game

 

[bustamente]

It's a given Connor will make more than Scheifele and Helle on his next contract but there is a possibility that he could price himself out of Winnipeg.

 

[10Ducky10]

It's a given Connor will make more than Scheifele and Helle on his next contract but there is a possibility that he could price himself out of Winnipeg.

He's not getting 14m in Winnipeg.
I'd be surprised if he got 10m.

 

[Adam da bomb]

He's not getting 14m in Winnipeg.
I'd be surprised if he got 10m.

I’d be surprised if he gets less than 10 mil. Guys pacing for 90-100 who have a good two way game in the new nhl get over 10 mil. Schief got 8.5 for a season where he put up 70-80. I am sure kc’s defensive metrics are better than Schief’s were at that time. The cap has gone up. Getting 1.5 mil more is no thing.

 

[King Woodballs]

if colorado can trade Rantanen. The jets can trade Ehlers!
Come at me bro

 

[DRW204]

Chevy probably waiting on the contract negotiations to see where the market is... he's going to need $14m for Connor by the looks of it

yeah when Rantanen and Marner sign, Connor will come in below them.

 

[voyageur]

if colorado can trade Rantanen. The jets can trade Ehlers!
Come at me bro

Two different approaches there. Colorado is a team that isn't afraid to make trades. They traded away their goaltending during the season. They've traded almost all their good prospects from 2019 on to improve the team with guys like Lehkonen, Middlestadt and Josh Manson. They traded Newhook for a pair of picks in the 30s, only to acquire Johansen, who they used a 1st to unload for one playoff run from Sean Walker. They have one good forward prospect up front, that's Cal Ritchie. I wouldn't be surprised if they move Nuke too, just to have a different locker room.

Jets have prospects in the ranks, and won't move them. True North draft and develop.

With all the moves the Avs made they were still behind the Jets, hanging on to a wild card. They moved their most valuable trade asset, while trying to negotiate a contract with him mid season. Chevy admitted he hasn't talked negotiations with anyone this year.

Tale of two cities. The Avs rode the wave in 2022 of all the promising moves and draft picks they made, but I think the Jets are in a better position now. Ehlers career year is a big reason for that.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Two different approaches there. Colorado is a team that isn't afraid to make trades. They traded away their goaltending during the season. They've traded almost all their good prospects from 2019 on to improve the team with guys like Lehkonen, Middlestadt and Josh Manson. They traded Newhook for a pair of picks in the 30s, only to acquire Johansen, who they used a 1st to unload for one playoff run from Sean Walker. They have one good forward prospect up front, that's Cal Ritchie. I wouldn't be surprised if they move Nuke too, just to have a different locker room.

Jets have prospects in the ranks, and won't move them. True North draft and develop.

With all the moves the Avs made they were still behind the Jets, hanging on to a wild card. They moved their most valuable trade asset, while trying to negotiate a contract with him mid season. Chevy admitted he hasn't talked negotiations with anyone this year.

Tale of two cities. The Avs rode the wave in 2022 of all the promising moves and draft picks they made, but I think the Jets are in a better position now. Ehlers career year is a big reason for that.

I would conject that the jets havent been a draft develop team for years now... stan being the exception

 

[voyageur]

I would conject that the jets havent been a draft develop team for years now... stan being the exception

Sammy? Perfetti? Now it is mostly developing chemistry with a veteran group, many of whom are draft picks that developed into stars. Many of the prospects drafted are on their way to becoming Jets, the next round being Lambert, Salomonsson,, Chibrikov (if he wants to stay, which a key, as Roslovic, Mc Groarty forced trades), followed by the promising CHL prospects.

Organizationally I think the Jets are way ahead of the Avs here. Which is why they had to trade a star player.

 

[King Woodballs]

if colorado can trade Rantanen. The jets can trade Ehlers
Come at me bro

Two different approaches there. Colorado is a team that isn't afraid to make trades. They traded away their goaltending during the season. They've traded almost all their good prospects from 2019 on to improve the team with guys like Lehkonen, Middlestadt and Josh Manson. They traded Newhook for a pair of picks in the 30s, only to acquire Johansen, who they used a 1st to unload for one playoff run from Sean Walker. They have one good forward prospect up front, that's Cal Ritchie. I wouldn't be surprised if they move Nuke too, just to have a different locker room.

Jets have prospects in the ranks, and won't move them. True North draft and develop.

With all the moves the Avs made they were still behind the Jets, hanging on to a wild card. They moved their most valuable trade asset, while trying to negotiate a contract with him mid season. Chevy admitted he hasn't talked negotiations with anyone this year.

Tale of two cities. The Avs rode the wave in 2022 of all the promising moves and draft picks they made, but I think the Jets are in a better position now. Ehlers career year is a big reason for that.

they have had since July 1 to get a deal done. That’s plenty of time.
This tells me someone doesn’t want it done.
If the jets don’t win the cup or at least make the conference finals, and Ehlers walks for nothing.
That is a total fireable offence in my opinion

 

[10Ducky10]

I’d be surprised if he gets less than 10 mil. Guys pacing for 90-100 who have a good two way game in the new nhl get over 10 mil. Schief got 8.5 for a season where he put up 70-80. I am sure kc’s defensive metrics are better than Schief’s were at that time. The cap has gone up. Getting 1.5 mil more is no thing.

Scheif did NOT get his contract for one season's play.
KFC would get 10m or maybe more somewhere else but Chevy isn't giving him what he would get on the open marked and KFC loves playing here.
Just like Ehlers' deal won't be based on one season. He is on pace for a lot of points but he hasn't put up more than 64 points (2016-2017) and has only scored more than 60 points 3 times.
He has only played a full season 3 times in 9 years.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

Sammy? Perfetti? Now it is mostly developing chemistry with a veteran group, many of whom are draft picks that developed into stars. Many of the prospects drafted are on their way to becoming Jets, the next round being Lambert, Salomonsson,, Chibrikov (if he wants to stay, which a key, as Roslovic, Mc Groarty forced trades), followed by the promising CHL prospects.

Organizationally I think the Jets are way ahead of the Avs here. Which is why they had to trade a star player.

Actually makes more of a case for them to sign rantanen than anything...huge draft and develop success story

 

[Buffdog]

if colorado can trade Rantanen. The jets can trade Ehlers
Come at me bro

they have had since July 1 to get a deal done. That’s plenty of time.
This tells me someone doesn’t want it done.
If the jets don’t win the cup or at least make the conference finals, and Ehlers walks for nothing.
That is a total fireable offence in my opinion

This off-season, Pionk, Ehlers and Vilardi all need new deals

The next off-season... Connor, Lowry and Perfetti

I think that signing Ehlers last July 1 before having an idea what the rest of the guys would come in at (or around) and knowing where the cap will land would be more of a fireable offense

The Jets have always managed their cap well

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

This off-season, Pionk, Ehlers and Vilardi all need new deals

The next off-season... Connor, Lowry and Perfetti

I think that signing Ehlers last July 1 before having an idea what the rest of the guys would come in at (or around) and knowing where the cap will land would be more of a fireable offense

The Jets have always managed their cap well

And samberg...

 

[10Ducky10]

Chevy is waiting to see what the cap is for next year.

 

[KingBogo]

I’d be surprised if he gets less than 10 mil. Guys pacing for 90-100 who have a good two way game in the new nhl get over 10 mil. Schief got 8.5 for a season where he put up 70-80. I am sure kc’s defensive metrics are better than Schief’s were at that time. The cap has gone up. Getting 1.5 mil more is no thing.

Ehlers isn’t pacing at a 90-100 pace. He has 44 points and is pacing at 1.048 ppg. There are 31 games left. If he stays healthy he will likely be in the 75 point range. Nice season and certainly a career high, but can’t see him getting $10 M. If a team thinks he is worth that much I hope Chevy is as working the trade market.

 

[Gm0ney]

if colorado can trade Rantanen. The jets can trade Ehlers
Come at me bro

they have had since July 1 to get a deal done. That’s plenty of time.
This tells me someone doesn’t want it done.
If the jets don’t win the cup or at least make the conference finals, and Ehlers walks for nothing.
That is a total fireable offence in my opinion

I don't think they can trade him with the team at the top of the standings and Ehlers being a big part of the league's best power play. They can't afford to mortgage their present...even if it means Ehlers walks for nothing in July.

 

[Flair Hay]

Scheif did NOT get his contract for one season's play.
KFC would get 10m or maybe more somewhere else but Chevy isn't giving him what he would get on the open marked and KFC loves playing here.
Just like Ehlers' deal won't be based on one season. He is on pace for a lot of points but he hasn't put up more than 64 points (2016-2017) and has only scored more than 60 points 3 times.
He has only played a full season 3 times in 9 years.

Durability is absolutely a reason to depress Ehlers contract value. Same with playoff struggles.

Also have to acknowledge the effect 3rd line + PP2 usage has had on his raw numbers.

It's shaped his perception and counting stats from bonadide 1st liner with injury concerns and playoff struggles to 2nd liner with injury concerns and playoff struggles. Even within our own fan base...

You can't really ask a non-elite/all star player to produce what he does in the ice time he had been given prior to this year. You realistically can't. No one else in the league does. At a certain point ice time is somewhat out of the guy's control...in this case it feels like it is.

This isn't him overperforming, this is his stats catching up to the calibre of player he is now that he is part of the league's best PP. If anything he could be doing a fair bit better stats wise still. We just have Connor playing amazing ahead of him.