Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Mortimer Snerd]

Anyone else is a bit of an exaggeration as we live or die on Helly.

Helle is our generational star - but he can't do it alone.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I get that, but as we speculate on what might happen, digging into the details starts shedding some light. I just don't see the self rental route with a player of Ehlers value. So it is either a re-signing or a trade IMO.


Interesting. I wasn't expecting the Pens. It seems like they are on the crash and burn phase of the franchise.

they're entering draft generational Canadian superstar phase of the franchise; to be followed quickly by draft generational euro sidekick.

 

[Adam da bomb]

If and when we lose Ehlers it will be interesting what happens to this place as he is our most popular Jet.

 

[10Ducky10]

Sell high.
Ehlers (re-signed) to the Rags for Schneider straight up.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Sell high.
Ehlers (re-signed) to the Rags for Schneider straight up.

Is that selling high? Someone said according to stats Schneider isn't doing much better than a 3rd pairing D right now. Trade him to Buffalo for Power.

 

[Howard Chuck]

One of the Joys of being a Jets fan is finding peace in knowing I have zero idea what Chevy is going to do most of the time. The Schiefele Hellybuyck suprise deals were the finish line for me as a phatom GM and where I felt fully emancipated from my imaginary role.

I agree, it's a lot like flying to me. I just sit back and enjoy the ride because I have no control whatsoever.

 

[10Ducky10]

Is that selling high? Someone said according to stats Schneider isn't doing much better than a 3rd pairing D right now. Trade him to Buffalo for Power.

Power has not being playing well since joining the league, actually.
Dahlin is the defenseman to go after on that team but not at his salary.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It probably ought to somehow

That's a major flaw

It's like the shooting percentage convo. If someone holds onto the puck until they have a very high quality shot, they're more likely to score vs someone who flings the puck at the net from anywhere

Yet people will look at a high % shooter with fewer shots and say that they will regress to a "norm"

They don't regress to a norm. They regress to their norm.

 

[wraithsonwings]

They have shown they will give Stanley and KFC the cream of usage whether they deserve it or not and not him.

Stanley's getting the prime... *checks notes* 3rd pair minutes.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Stanley's getting the prime... *checks notes* 3rd pair minutes.

And if you go by what the majority of ppl say he is lucky to have that. instead of the AHL.

 

[Crocket]

Also, Pionk has played well but do we value having Salomonsson being able to get a shot on the 2 or 3 RD next year?
Over paying for Pionk would be risky. But you'd hate to lose him for nothing.

Chevy is in a dilemma with him and Ehlers.

You could sign them and always trade them at some point.

How is our prospect replacement for Ehlers? I'd say bad.
How is it for Pionk? I'd say decent as Elias Salomonsson could be ready next year. Heinola is better than most at switching sides, he's clearly more skilled than some others.

That said. Pionk and Ehlers are valuable to the team right now for a deep run. We need to add a depth defenseman and a C. Maybe a greasy hard-nose playoff winger.

I expect Chevy might have a plan to sign these guys, get some depth at the deadline.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed. We have no idea what discussions Chevy has had with Ehlers camp. IMO it seems very unlikely there haven’t been some discussions. I still expect Ehlers will sign long term with the Jets and we will hear nothing about it until it is a done deal.

Chevy stated just a couple of days ago that he had talked to the agents of all of the pending RFA & UFA players but had not yet discussed contracts with any of them. He was pretty clear.

Has he ever signed a core player this late into his UFA season?

I think that improved usage and all around team success both improve the chances of signing Nik. But he gets closer to UFA every day. If he wanted to sign Nik Chevy would be talking contract. I very much doubt he will be traded either, not with the Jets near the top of the league and Nik making a pretty big contribution to that.

The possibility of signing remains until he is actually signed somewhere else but it gets less likely every passing day.

 

[Buffdog]

They don't regress to a norm. They regress to their norm.

Isn't "their norm" also "a norm"

No need to be pedantic

 

[KingBogo]

Chevy stated just a couple of days ago that he had talked to the agents of all of the pending RFA & UFA players but had not yet discussed contracts with any of them. He was pretty clear.

Has he ever signed a core player this late into his UFA season?

I think that improved usage and all around team success both improve the chances of signing Nik. But he gets closer to UFA every day. If he wanted to sign Nik Chevy would be talking contract. I very much doubt he will be traded either, not with the Jets near the top of the league and Nik making a pretty big contribution to that.

The possibility of signing remains until he is actually signed somewhere else but it gets less likely every passing day.

Yep Chevy signed Buff in February of his UFA year. Soon after they traded Ladd for futures. Also I’d only buy so much that Chevy sells to the public beforehand. An Ehlers signing will be announced out of the blue.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Isn't "their norm" also "a norm"

No need to be pedantic

That's not pedantic. It is a very significant point with you being so dismissive of the way people are using advanced stats.

The people you keep complaining about watch the stats and watch the games. Some of them are pretty astute observers. They look for agreement between stats and eye-test. When they don't find it they look for reasons for the discrepancy. Sometimes it is in the weaknesses in the stats, the way they are gathered, the ways they are modeled, etc. Sometimes it is in the bias in the eye-test. Sometimes it is simply in the difficulty of seeing everything that happens in a hockey game. They don't usually just assume the eye-test is right and the stats are wrong. Or the other way around either.

 

[Gm0ney]

Chevy stated just a couple of days ago that he had talked to the agents of all of the pending RFA & UFA players but had not yet discussed contracts with any of them. He was pretty clear.

Has he ever signed a core player this late into his UFA season?

I think that improved usage and all around team success both improve the chances of signing Nik. But he gets closer to UFA every day. If he wanted to sign Nik Chevy would be talking contract. I very much doubt he will be traded either, not with the Jets near the top of the league and Nik making a pretty big contribution to that.

The possibility of signing remains until he is actually signed somewhere else but it gets less likely every passing day.

It's weird he hasn't talked turkey yet.

I think Pionk is a done deal - they're definitely bringing him back. He's wearing the A while Lowry is hurt, he likes it here, he's popular, the org loves him...he's not going to UFA.

Ehlers is probably also a done deal - but the deal is that they're not bringing him back. He's never been mentioned as part of the core - only as an afterthought. They know he's popular and highly skilled, but they don't like him for all the reasons his critics list. Even though he's a massive net positive, they're just not comfortable with his style.

If I had to give percentages, I'd say it's 90% that Pionk re-signs before July 1 and maybe 15% that Ehlers does.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If this was the case he would have been traded in the off season just like Trouba and PLD were when Chevy knew they would play out the season on the way to UFA status.

Good point - but OTOH, why haven't they talked contract?

View attachment 967517

I've seen that look before.

 

[KingBogo]

Good point - but OTOH, why haven't they talked contract?

But what does Chevy mean by talking contract? He could be having lots of general conversations around parameters that he doesn’t consider contract details.

 

[gojetsgo]

It's weird he hasn't talked turkey yet.

I think Pionk is a done deal - they're definitely bringing him back. He's wearing the A while Lowry is hurt, he likes it here, he's popular, the org loves him...he's not going to UFA.

Ehlers is probably also a done deal - but the deal is that they're not bringing him back. He's never been mentioned as part of the core - only as an afterthought. They know he's popular and highly skilled, but they don't like him for all the reasons his critics list. Even though he's a massive net positive, they're just not comfortable with his style.

If I had to give percentages, I'd say it's 90% that Pionk re-signs before July 1 and maybe 15% that Ehlers does.

wouldn't read much into that at all, dillon was wearing an A when we had injuries before as welll

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ehlers is not going to get offer sheeted because he is not an RFA and it's unlikely Chevy waits until free agency period before offering Ehlers a new contract if he hasn't already (they may just be waiting to see what the new salary cap will be before finalizing)

If I had to guess, I think he is offered something like an 8x8m or possibly even matching Scheifs and Helly, then KFC will come in later at around 9-10m or maybe with luck also signs for the same because he loves us so much.

As a UFA Nik gets offered more than 8 mil but it can't be for 8 years. If it was up to me I wouldn't be offering more than 6 years, either from Jets or as a FA. But with the rising cap it would be for 9.5-10. Connor will be at least 10, probably more. I'm thinking 11.

 

[Buffdog]

That's not pedantic. It is a very significant point with you being so dismissive of the way people are using advanced stats.

The people you keep complaining about watch the stats and watch the games. Some of them are pretty astute observers. They look for agreement between stats and eye-test. When they don't find it they look for reasons for the discrepancy. Sometimes it is in the weaknesses in the stats, the way they are gathered, the ways they are modeled, etc. Sometimes it is in the bias in the eye-test. Sometimes it is simply in the difficulty of seeing everything that happens in a hockey game. They don't usually just assume the eye-test is right and the stats are wrong. Or the other way around either.

No, were being pedantic. You know what it meant

There are for sure some people who look at stats and watch the game. I've had good interactions with those posters, even when we disagree

But there are definitely some that have never held a hockey stick and have no idea what they're watching but pretend to understand the game through tables and spreadsheets. Ironically, these are the ones who are the most arrogant

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Jets are willing to pay him, but, if he is like his fans who think he is capable of 90-100 points if he got top line minutes then why would he stay? So how does he feel about his situation? Is he okay not being on the top line and being the man? Does he care about the stats? Does he feel disrespected, as the players who showed loyalty to the Jets, possibly never felt as underutilized as he does. The Jets want to be loyal, but, they have their pecking order and have shown that they view other players ahead of him. They have shown they will give Stanley and KFC the cream of usage whether they deserve it or not and not him.

I have suspected an own rental since the off-season. It is only an opinion.

I think that improved usage and a contending team may have changed the dynamic there, at least to some extent. But the continued lack of a contract offer at this very late stage supports the own rental scenario. I really can't see a trade with the Jets contending and Nik being a big part of that.

That said, I hate the own rental plan. It just continues to look likely to me. Hope I'm wrong, it is the least desirable possibility.

Didn't get an Ehlers jersey in the past because I figured that, with my luck, he would be traded soon after. Now I'm thinking maybe I should buy one so that he does get traded.

 

[Xavier Laflamme]

As a UFA Nik gets offered more than 8 mil but it can't be for 8 years.

Well it can be for 8 years as he would be re-signing and I don't see why Chevy wouldn't, term might be important to getting him to sign.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

No, were being pedantic. You know what it meant

There are for sure some people who look at stats and watch the game. I've had good interactions with those posters, even when we disagree

But there are definitely some that have never held a hockey stick and have no idea what they're watching but pretend to understand the game through tables and spreadsheets. Ironically, these are the ones who are the most arrogant

No, apparently I did not know what you meant. I took it as written. Sorry if I misunderstood.

I can't agree with your last paragraph either. I agree that there is a range of skill among observers here. I certainly don't include myself among the best. But I understand what I am watching. And the tables and spreadsheets have helped me be a better observer. But I still understand my eye-test better than I understand many of the spreadsheets. I grasp some of them but I don't have the background in math to be able to get deeply into the subject. There are a few that I suspect are just not very good, not reliably predictive. But that is my opinion and I am not equipped to defend it so I just ignore those.

I don't think there is a substantial number of posters here who would fit those in that last paragraph of yours. There might be a few. There might be none. And I don't accept that you need to have played the game in order to watch it intelligently.

 

[slurpee addict]

I’m a fan of Ehlers despite his wild ass blind passes in bad areas. I’ll take the good with the lesser bad. I also have had his jersey for years. But if he leaves via trade or as a UFA we don’t really lose other than a guy who’s been a good teammate and fan of Winnipeg. That’s something of course, but if he leaves, his salary (whatever it will be next year) stays here and we re-purpose it towards someone else.