Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Buffdog]

IMHO, the guy has played injured a fair bit, maybe not as much as Wheels, but especially as seasons wore on.
Could be a variable here, as opposed to just being a weak player overall.

It's common for NHL players to lose 5-10% of their bodyweight during the regular season, which includes a bunch of LBM

That means that if Ehlers comes to camp at 170lbs, he's finishing the season in the 150s

Then, the games slow down and get more physical in the playoffs

 

[AlaskaJet]

It's common for NHL players to lose 5-10% of their bodyweight during the regular season, which includes a bunch of LBM

That means that if Ehlers comes to camp at 170lbs, he's finishing the season in the 150s

Then, the games slow down and get more physical in the playoffs

Good observation, that could explain a lot right there. Factor in Nik’s cervical spine issues and you have a guy who is easily knocked down a rung with playoff hits.

 

[DRW204]

im guessing ehlers if 2nd line will be around 60 pts this year. i don't think ppl realize in the 15-17m ATOI range how good 60 pts is for a fwd. if you're expecting like 70-80+ it's probably not happening with that low of mins.

last season: 5 fwds in the under 17m ATOI group hit 60+ pts, Ehlers being one of them, with the most being Pavelski at 67 pts/16.8m a night. if you go under 16m ATOI it's 2 fwds including ehlers.

here's the points tier and average of the ATOI of all NHL Fwds in those tiers based off last season. ofc this is all-strengths & special teams TOI can skew things or EN opportunities

Points Tier	Average of TOI/GP of Fwds
0-9	10.1
10-19	12.5
20-29	13.8
30-39	15.8
40-49	16.3
50-59	17.5
60-69	18.6
70-79	19.4
80-89	19.6
90-99	20.1
100-109	21.0
110-119	19.9
120-129	20.1
130-139	21.4
140-149	22.2

 

[FonRiesen]

It's common for NHL players to lose 5-10% of their bodyweight during the regular season, which includes a bunch of LBM

That means that if Ehlers comes to camp at 170lbs, he's finishing the season in the 150s

Then, the games slow down and get more physical in the playoffs

Sounds like a candidate for the ol' "get injured before the trade deadline and then miraculously recover on day 1 of the playoffs" technique that is apparently legal in the NHL... Or maybe we at least could give him some games off once we've clinched a playoff spot, rotate some rookies in to give them experience.

 

[Whileee]

Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.

 

[surixon]

Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.

You have to figure it is in a tax free state so the ceiling would be a bit higher here. Maybe a 7.75 million ceiling here.

But I'd think long and hard about inking him to an 8 by 7 million deal.

 

[10Ducky10]

6 x 7m would be okay but I'd sooner see him in a deal with other parts for a 1RHD

 

[Buffdog]

6 x 7m would be okay but I'd sooner see him in a deal with other parts for a 1RHD

Ith Ehlers and less than a season of term left, those "other parts" would include Perfetti for a true 1RHD. They just don't come up on the trade market

 

[jetsfan15]

Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.

I think if Ehlers wants to sign a long term at that price, chevy should do it.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think if Ehlers wants to sign a long term at that price, chevy should do it.

8 years will take him until he is 37.
No way I want a 37 year old Ehlers making 7m on the Jets.
6 years is the most I would offer.

 

[DRW204]

Well if ehlers is re-signed, and add scheifele under contract long term too. Then presumably vilardi and perfetti as RFAs should be here long term.

Can ppl live with 4/6 top-6 fwd spots being occupied by vets

 

[Buffdog]

Well if ehlers is re-signed, and add scheifele under contract long term too. Then presumably vilardi and perfetti as RFAs should be here long term.

Can ppl live with 4/6 top-6 fwd spots being occupied by vets

I swear to God there are some posters on here that would take a kid that lit up the Brick Tournamnet last spring and gift him top 6 minutes today

 

[KingBogo]

6 x 7m would be okay but I'd sooner see him in a deal with other parts for a 1RHD

There are not many parts a team has that gets you a #1 RHD. Right now the Jets probably don't have any of those parts unless the target is well into their 30's.

 

[surixon]

There are not many parts a team has that gets you a #1 RHD. Right now the Jets probably don't have any of those parts unless the target is well into their 30's.

Yup, at this point he returns a deadline type package. A B prospect and a 2nd, or a 1st round pick on its own. Maybe he gets you an equivalent top 4 dmen who is also on an expiring deal.

 

[10Ducky10]

Yup, at this point he returns a deadline type package. A B prospect and a 2nd, or a 1st round pick on its own. Maybe he gets you an equivalent top 4 dmen who is also on an expiring deal.

If that's all he gets you might as well wait until the TD...you'd get a lot more for him then.

 

[KingBogo]

If that's all he gets you might as well wait until the TD...you'd get a lot more for him then.

Unless a player has a falling out with an organization or a team experiences major injury problems there is not much of a trade market at this point. Teams have set their rosters and cap space has been accounted for. The market for Ehlers will grow as the TDL approaches. Hard to know what will happen with him. I also got him in my main hockey draft so I hope he is a motivated player this season.

 

[JetsFan815]

Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.

I would offer more... $8 million+ if that's what it takes... I think the Jets might have to pay Ehlers a bit more than the comparables to get him to consider re-signing, if he feels slighted by his usage.