Player Discussion: Ehlers

Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
8,495
20,773
IMHO, the guy has played injured a fair bit, maybe not as much as Wheels, but especially as seasons wore on.
Could be a variable here, as opposed to just being a weak player overall.
It's common for NHL players to lose 5-10% of their bodyweight during the regular season, which includes a bunch of LBM

That means that if Ehlers comes to camp at 170lbs, he's finishing the season in the 150s

Then, the games slow down and get more physical in the playoffs
 

AlaskaJet

Retrieves pucks and ducks
Sep 29, 2017
2,289
5,074
Olympia, Washington (from Ft. Garry)
It's common for NHL players to lose 5-10% of their bodyweight during the regular season, which includes a bunch of LBM

That means that if Ehlers comes to camp at 170lbs, he's finishing the season in the 150s

Then, the games slow down and get more physical in the playoffs
Good observation, that could explain a lot right there. Factor in Nik’s cervical spine issues and you have a guy who is easily knocked down a rung with playoff hits.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hn777 and GNP

DRW204

Registered User
Dec 26, 2010
23,134
28,692
im guessing ehlers if 2nd line will be around 60 pts this year. i don't think ppl realize in the 15-17m ATOI range how good 60 pts is for a fwd. if you're expecting like 70-80+ it's probably not happening with that low of mins.

last season: 5 fwds in the under 17m ATOI group hit 60+ pts, Ehlers being one of them, with the most being Pavelski at 67 pts/16.8m a night. if you go under 16m ATOI it's 2 fwds including ehlers.

here's the points tier and average of the ATOI of all NHL Fwds in those tiers based off last season. ofc this is all-strengths & special teams TOI can skew things or EN opportunities

Points TierAverage of TOI/GP of Fwds
0-910.1
10-1912.5
20-2913.8
30-3915.8
40-4916.3
50-5917.5
60-6918.6
70-7919.4
80-8919.6
90-9920.1
100-10921.0
110-11919.9
120-12920.1
130-13921.4
140-14922.2
 
Last edited:

FonRiesen

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
3,342
6,904
Vancouver Island
It's common for NHL players to lose 5-10% of their bodyweight during the regular season, which includes a bunch of LBM

That means that if Ehlers comes to camp at 170lbs, he's finishing the season in the 150s

Then, the games slow down and get more physical in the playoffs
Sounds like a candidate for the ol' "get injured before the trade deadline and then miraculously recover on day 1 of the playoffs" technique that is apparently legal in the NHL... Or maybe we at least could give him some games off once we've clinched a playoff spot, rotate some rookies in to give them experience.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,580
35,174
Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
51,050
75,516
Winnipeg
Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.

You have to figure it is in a tax free state so the ceiling would be a bit higher here. Maybe a 7.75 million ceiling here.

But I'd think long and hard about inking him to an 8 by 7 million deal.
 

10Ducky10

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jul 5, 2015
14,535
12,870
6 x 7m would be okay but I'd sooner see him in a deal with other parts for a 1RHD
 

Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
8,495
20,773
6 x 7m would be okay but I'd sooner see him in a deal with other parts for a 1RHD
Ith Ehlers and less than a season of term left, those "other parts" would include Perfetti for a true 1RHD. They just don't come up on the trade market
 

jetsfan15

Registered User
Jul 17, 2016
583
946
Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.

I think if Ehlers wants to sign a long term at that price, chevy should do it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: weslox and hn777

DRW204

Registered User
Dec 26, 2010
23,134
28,692
Well if ehlers is re-signed, and add scheifele under contract long term too. Then presumably vilardi and perfetti as RFAs should be here long term.

Can ppl live with 4/6 top-6 fwd spots being occupied by vets

:sarcasm:
 

Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
8,495
20,773
Well if ehlers is re-signed, and add scheifele under contract long term too. Then presumably vilardi and perfetti as RFAs should be here long term.

Can ppl live with 4/6 top-6 fwd spots being occupied by vets

:sarcasm:
I swear to God there are some posters on here that would take a kid that lit up the Brick Tournamnet last spring and gift him top 6 minutes today
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
51,050
75,516
Winnipeg
There are not many parts a team has that gets you a #1 RHD. Right now the Jets probably don't have any of those parts unless the target is well into their 30's.

Yup, at this point he returns a deadline type package. A B prospect and a 2nd, or a 1st round pick on its own. Maybe he gets you an equivalent top 4 dmen who is also on an expiring deal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buffdog

10Ducky10

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jul 5, 2015
14,535
12,870
Yup, at this point he returns a deadline type package. A B prospect and a 2nd, or a 1st round pick on its own. Maybe he gets you an equivalent top 4 dmen who is also on an expiring deal.
If that's all he gets you might as well wait until the TD...you'd get a lot more for him then.
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
32,801
43,820
Winnipeg
If that's all he gets you might as well wait until the TD...you'd get a lot more for him then.
Unless a player has a falling out with an organization or a team experiences major injury problems there is not much of a trade market at this point. Teams have set their rosters and cap space has been accounted for. The market for Ehlers will grow as the TDL approaches. Hard to know what will happen with him. I also got him in my main hockey draft so I hope he is a motivated player this season.
 

JetsFan815

Replacement Level Poster
Jan 16, 2012
19,755
25,944
Verhaeghe just signed an 8x$7M extension. Same age as Ehlers. More goals and about the same on-ice impact. More playoff success. That probably sets a market ceiling for Ehlers, all things considered. Would the Jets offer that at this point? I'm not so sure.

I would offer more... $8 million+ if that's what it takes... I think the Jets might have to pay Ehlers a bit more than the comparables to get him to consider re-signing, if he feels slighted by his usage.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bigfish and hn777

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
32,801
43,820
Winnipeg
8 x 8m is ridiculous already.
Agreed. I don’t think his comparables indicate much more. Verhaeghe is close to the limit. Maybe Verhaehhe took a bit of a Florida tax free state discount, but Ehlers doesn’t bring more in terms of salary. $7.5M should be the limit and push for 6 years but maybe settle got 7 years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Buffdog

gojetsgo

Registered User
Nov 1, 2015
11,299
31,971

“I’ve never, ever said I wanted to play 20 minutes,” Ehlers said. “I’m fine with 16. It’s when it gets down to 11 and 12, that pisses me off. And I said that many times. It’s not a secret. When it gets lower, that’s when it’s frustrating because I can’t get into the games. I’ve played in this league long enough and played well enough to deserve more.
 

TommyKillian

Registered User
Dec 12, 2013
351
1,011

“I’ve never, ever said I wanted to play 20 minutes,” Ehlers said. “I’m fine with 16. It’s when it gets down to 11 and 12, that pisses me off. And I said that many times. It’s not a secret. When it gets lower, that’s when it’s frustrating because I can’t get into the games. I’ve played in this league long enough and played well enough to deserve more.
Great article. It offers the best insight I've ever gotten into the dynamics in the dressing room and how Ehlers views himself. I'm happy he sees himself as a key contributor and capable of driving this team.

Interesting that he comments on PP2 being more effective than PP1 in some years. I've seen people around here comment on that but the team always seemed oblivious. It wouldn't surprise me if he has some resentment towards Wheeler, Scheifs and Connor for the unequal treatment he's received by the coaches over the years. Hopefully it's nothing that impacts the room and only serves as motivation.

Would love to see him back next year, but I agree with those that see 6 years x $7mill as being close to the upper limit of how far we should go. I've always thought he's look amazing for the Canes, as much as it would sting!
 

Buffdog

Registered User
Feb 13, 2019
8,495
20,773

“I’ve never, ever said I wanted to play 20 minutes,” Ehlers said. “I’m fine with 16. It’s when it gets down to 11 and 12, that pisses me off. And I said that many times. It’s not a secret. When it gets lower, that’s when it’s frustrating because I can’t get into the games. I’ve played in this league long enough and played well enough to deserve more.
I'm sure some posters will be along shortly to argue with Ehlers himself that he should want to play more
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad