Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Flair Hay]

I don't interpret this article the same way. Ehlers denying he asked for 20 minutes does not mean he has not been frustrated with his utilization over the years. The message I get is that he has been, but has been advised to be discreet about it and be a good teammate while he is still a Jet.
Below is another pp from the Athletic article, which tells a different story.

Ehlers’ average ice time has increased from 14:43 through five games to 15:59 after 11 games played, which is the seventh-highest out of Ehlers’ 10 seasons to date. He’s rewarded them for that increase with a hat trick against Columbus and yet another elite points-per-minute rate. The biggest drop in Ehlers’ minutes has occurred at five-on-five, where he’s played the second-fewest minutes of his career. He’s eighth among 12 regularly used Jets forwards, which helps cancel out his increase in power-play time.

There are many teams in the NHL that would play him 18+ minutes a night, and with his elite PPM scoring and possession game, pay him commensurately. Heading into UFA, he and his advisors know that full well.

Yeah everyone interprets this stuff differently. What I heard was "I don't mind playing a bit less to be a good teammate, but getting 12 mins was pretty ridiculous"

I still feel like we will be able to get him signed. But to a certain extent, Chevy will know he has to pay him close to what he "would have" produced in more minutes, not what he did produce while playing less and being completely professional about it.

The thought of letting this dude play in Edmonton or Colorado next season disgusts me lol

 

[Flair Hay]

I've always thought he ends up re-signing with the Jets. We will see how the season plays out, but I don't expect Chevy to go the own rental route, and we will be far too competitive to do a futures TDL trade, so I think we see a quiet push to get something done in season well before the TDL.

Yeah this is how I see it as well. Too valuable to let go, not going to be sellers this year, he is having his best year yet, etc.

I think we get him locked up for around what Scheif and Helle make and anything less is a bargain.

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah this is how I see it as well. Too valuable to let go, not going to be sellers this year, he is having his best year yet, etc.

I think we get him locked up for around what Scheif and Helle make and anything less is a bargain.

Just my opinion, but I think Chevy gives a bit on term and Ehlers gives a bit on AAV. We are pretty much pot committed with this core, so does an extra year or 2 of term really matter? We are the only team that can give Ehlers 8 years, so maybe 8 X $8M?

 

[Adam da bomb]

It’s tough as Arniel wants to roll 4 lines. If Ehlers is complaining bout minutes they should give him Connor’s penalty killing minutes see how that helps his ppm rate. Or double shift him on the 4th line every 3rd shift. Luckily, we have usually been winning and in those cases it’s better to play the bottom 6 who play a safer game than Ehler’s high risk.

I am sure they all want more minutes. I’m not sure how much you can tie into a second line player.

 

[Jack7222]

It’s tough as Arniel wants to roll 4 lines. If Ehlers is complaining bout minutes they should give him Connor’s penalty killing minutes see how that helps his ppm rate. Or double shift him on the 4th line every 3rd shift. Luckily, we have usually been winning and in those cases it’s better to play the bottom 6 who play a safer game than Ehler’s high risk.

I am sure they all want more minutes. I’m not sure how much you can tie into a second line player.

It does seem like he's happy being in the 16-18 range and feels he's most effective there so I don't really see too much conflict here; surely it's reasonable to give at least 16 minutes a game to the guy that produces the most points per minute on the team. And he's not really a second line player -- he's a first line player by output and a third line player by TOI (historically).

 

[LowLefty]

Yeah everyone interprets this stuff differently. What I heard was "I don't mind playing a bit less to be a good teammate, but getting 12 mins was pretty ridiculous"

I agree with this - he doesn't want to be playing 11/12 minutes a night and that's a fair ask.
I don't think there is anything more to it than that.
He's getting 1PP time now so he should be OK most nights depending on penalties.
The good news is that the second line is now coming along nicely so that alone could put an end to this issue -

 

[WolfHouse]

Keep him on PP1 where he always should have been and he will be happy

 

[Adam da bomb]

It does seem like he's happy being in the 16-18 range and feels he's most effective there so I don't really see too much conflict here; surely it's reasonable to give at least 16 minutes a game to the guy that produces the most points per minute on the team. And he's not really a second line player -- he's a first line player by output and a third line player by TOI (historically).

That’s why they should give him more pk minutes, make the other team’s fear us getting penalties. Also, he is just really good at posession and keeping it away from the other team once he gets the puck.

 

[scelaton]

Just my opinion, but I think Chevy gives a bit on term and Ehlers gives a bit on AAV. We are pretty much pot committed with this core, so does an extra year or 2 of term really matter? We are the only team that can give Ehlers 8 years, so maybe 8 X $8M?

It'd surprise me if Ehlers got more term than Helle or Mark, but who knows? Chevy is in a difficult position because (IMO only) I think Ehlers has planned to test free agency for some time now, based on his utilization, in a world where, among other considerations, less utilization=smaller next contract.

Things are changing significantly under Arniel, however. A huge collateral benefit of being on PP1 is that Scheifele and Co are getting more ice time with him, thus getting acclimatized to his game. That will inevitably lead to more ice time 5v5 as the season unfolds and more validation for Nikolaj.

Now that there is more love for Ehlers around here, I can more readily admit that there is an elevated injury risk in signing a smaller player to a long contract through his 30s. But when all is said and done, I think Chevy needs to commit to winning now with this core, and Ehlers is certainly a key element of it.

If he agrees--and it's a big IF--7x8.5 is the number that makes most sense to me. It ties him exactly to Scheifele and Helle's contract, but in a rising cap environment. And it send a subtle message to Connor and his team for the year after.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree with this - he doesn't want to be playing 11/12 minutes a night and that's a fair ask.
I don't think there is anything more to it than that.
He's getting 1PP time now so he should be OK most nights depending on penalties.
The good news is that the second line is now coming along nicely so that alone could put an end to this issue -

Right now Nik is sitting on almost exactly 16 TOI per game, 4th among forwards behind the 1st line. A little nudge up from there seems to be a spot he is happy with.

 

[AtomicJets]

What's stopping a team like SJ or Chi offering him 10M to play on their top line with their young superstar?

 

[LowLefty]

Right now Nik is sitting on almost exactly 16 TOI per game, 4th among forwards behind the 1st line. A little nudge up from there seems to be a spot he is happy with.

Yeah, I think his comments were reflective of LY usage - Arniel looks like he is working hard to get everyone the minutes they need and it appears to be working most nights. I don't think this is an issue at this point.
His contract is another story - that is going to be interesting. If he is going to be slotted in this "minutes" window, how much to you pay a second line winger? It's probably a good thing that we don't have a ton of money tied up down the middle.

 

[Flair Hay]

What's stopping a team like SJ or Chi offering him 10M to play on their top line with their young superstar?

Us signing him first - in the most literal sense

Hopefully he is happy here if he gets paid fairly and we are in the running for the President's Trophy!

 

[Buffdog]

What's stopping a team like SJ or Chi offering him 10M to play on their top line with their young superstar?

Did you not miss the part where Ehlers said that he doesn't want to play 20+ minutes per night?

Ehlers had been a Jet for 9 seasons going into this one, under three head coaches. Do you not think that there have been many conversations over those seasons about ice time and usage?

I'm not surenwhere this "Ehlers is unhappy with his usage" comes from, but it's not him

 

[10Ducky10]

Sell high...

 

[AtomicJets]

Did you not miss the part where Ehlers said that he doesn't want to play 20+ minutes per night?

Ehlers had been a Jet for 9 seasons going into this one, under three head coaches. Do you not think that there have been many conversations over those seasons about ice time and usage?

I'm not surenwhere this "Ehlers is unhappy with his usage" comes from, but it's not him

I didn't say anything about his usage

 

[Flair Hay]

Sell high...

If we aren't getting back a top 20 dman in the league, what the heck are we getting back that helps us win?

 

[Buffdog]

I didn't say anything about his usage

You said "top line with their young superstars"

Those guys won't be getting 16 minutes a night

 

[Buffdog]

If we aren't getting back a top 20 dman in the league, what the heck are we getting back that helps us win?

As a rental, he'd fetch the "1st and B prospect"

Extended, who knows. But even then, a soon to be 30 year old winger on a legacy contract doesn't get you a top 20 D man

 

[AtomicJets]

You said "top line with their young superstars"

Those guys won't be getting 16 minutes a night

I get the impression that Ehlers accepts 16-17 minutes per night but would not turn down a top line role if it was available.

I can't see Ehlers getting an offer like that and saying "ehhhh that's too much for me, I don't want to play on a top line."

 

[Jets 31]

I love Ehlers and want him to stay a Winnipeg Jet but if he thinks or wants more that Scheifele and Helly then i think he has to be traded. Haven't seen him say that he wants more than them so i am not worried about Chevy not getting him signed .

 

[JetsFan815]

Just my opinion, but I think Chevy gives a bit on term and Ehlers gives a bit on AAV. We are pretty much pot committed with this core, so does an extra year or 2 of term really matter? We are the only team that can give Ehlers 8 years, so maybe 8 X $8M?

I am glad people are coming around to offering him $8M... there was a lot of balking at that price earlier in the season. I am with you, the Jets already have so much salary commited to what are likely to be unproductive last seasons of 37 and esp 55 that it shouldn't matter. The Jets are unlikely to be contending at that point, their contention window is the next few years.

I love Ehlers and want him to stay a Winnipeg Jet but if he thinks or wants more that Scheifele and Helly then i think he has to be traded. Haven't seen him say that he wants more than them so i am not worried about Chevy not getting him signed .

I see Kevin Fiala as a good comparable to Ehlers, same draft year and Fiala was averaging 16.67 mins/game the last 3 seasons before his new deal. Ehlers has a similar PPG to him but imo is an overall better two way player.

Fiala signed 7 x$ 7.75 @ 9.25% of the cap. With the cap going up to 92.5 million the equivalent to tha deal would be 7 x $8.834 mil. Fiala was also not a pending UFA and had 1 more RFA season so if the Jets throw in another 160k to make up for that, that is a matching deal to Scheifele and Helle and imo that gets it done and smooths over any past hard feelings if they exist.

Signing that deal also gives the Jets some leverage in the Connor negotiations next year as they have something to fallback on if Connor demands Marner type of money or is intent on testing UFA.

 

[10Ducky10]

If we aren't getting back a top 20 dman in the league, what the heck are we getting back that helps us win?

Something based around Peterka and Ehlers.

 

[Flair Hay]

Something based around Peterka and Ehlers.

Fair enough, you've been on that one since last fall

I don't know enough about Peterka to say how that works for either team.

 

[Flair Hay]

I am glad people are coming around to offering him $8M... there was a lot of balking at that price earlier in the season. I am with you, the Jets already have so much salary commited to what are likely to be unproductive last seasons of 37 and esp 55 that it shouldn't matter. The Jets are unlikely to be contending at that point, their contention window is the next few years.



I see Kevin Fiala as a good comparable to Ehlers, same draft year and Fiala was averaging 16.67 mins/game the last 3 seasons before his new deal. Ehlers has a similar PPG to him but imo is an overall better two way player.

Fiala signed 7 x$ 7.75 @ 9.25% of the cap. With the cap going up to 92.5 million the equivalent to tha deal would be 7 x $8.834 mil. Fiala was also not a pending UFA and had 1 more RFA season so if the Jets throw in another 160k to make up for that, that is a matching deal to Scheifele and Helle and imo that gets it done and smooths over any past hard feelings if they exist.

Signing that deal also gives the Jets some leverage in the Connor negotiations next year as they have something to fallback on if Connor demands Marner type of money or is intent on testing UFA.

Scheif and Helle really set the tone about players choosing to be here and it not being about every single dollar and cent if they are recieving a fair number.

I'm pretty confident we can get Nik and Kyle on board with all the success they are having together and success the team is having this season. I figure Ehlers at that matching $8.5 (he was within a couple hundred k of Scheif in AAV years ago) and $9.750 for Connor (being a year later and higher cap) should be enough.