I always have mixed feelings about these kinds of contracts.
On the one hand, the #1 priority was returning Drai to the Oilers for the next two or three seasons. So, that's done and dusted, and thus I can sleep easier.
On the other hand, we all know there is a lot of risk involved in contracting players who are likely cresting-their-primes or soon-to-be-exiting their primes with this much long-term money.
Draisaitl has been an incredible, world-elite player for years. Any glance at his unbelievable stats (RS and playoffs) makes it immediately clear that he's worth $14 million for those years. (During those years, he was underpaid per League value.)
The question, of course, is: Is he worth $14 million for the years 2025-2033? The answer is: Almost certainly NOT. It would be a minor miracle if Draisaitl were producing 70% of his current numbers by 2032-33.
Just judging by last season, it's possible that Drai is already (albeit slowly) starting to exit his prime. Of course, it's also possible that he will roar back next season with an enormous year. But either way, I doubt he'll be a 100-point scorer say, four years from now.
Needless to say, none of this matters much if the Oilers win even one Stanley Cup (next spring, let's hope!). And clearly the org's decision is to go all-in, financially. Which is fine. It's a gamble, and they've taken their position and put their money where their mouths are. I (mostly) approve.
But I would feel better if the Oilers didn't have so many of these long-term contracts. Nuge, Nurse, Drai... It's quite possible that, in five years, the Oil will be shelling out $29 million a season just for Nurse, Nuge, and Drai, who might collectively be:
- a bottom-pairing D
- a 40-point-a-year two-way forward
- a 65-point-a-year disgruntled former superstar
This is before we even consider McDavid's next contract...
Anyway, as we all know, this is all the org's attempt to counter-balance the decades of star players leaving Edmonton, so I "get it" and I approve.
I also worry... but for now, we've got Drai back!