Confirmed with Link: [EDM/DET] Yamamoto and Kostin for Future Considerations

[duul]

Familiarity seems like the death of expectations. lol. What kind of circus have Oilers fans had to partake in to think that Foegele, Ryan, McLeod is a solid NHL line.

Seems maybe that a team that drags in minimum pays and walk on players every year and has that game plan SHORED up is somehow making fans believe that anything better than dreck is good. Meanwhile watch the teams that went deeper in playoffs and look at what their depth was looking like at every spot.

I'm hootin and hollerin over here. It's the same issue with our defence but to an ever greater extent.

People laud Holland for bringing in Kulak and Ceci, who admittedly looked like our two best defenceman for huge swathes of the seasons. When they got here Ceci was our best Dman for the entire season. Kulak stepped in and provided a level of skating and prowess with the puck we haven't seen here in forever.

Now remember these guys were healthy scratched and nobodies on their former teams. Astute pickups by Holland or yet another shining example of how horrible our defence actually is in contrast to the average? You be the judge.

When people all across the league definitively state that Nurse has the worst contract in the NHL it's not because every other fan from every other team has a vendetta against Edmonton. It's because they aren't wearing rose-coloured glasses looking at Nurse fumble around like a blind bambi out there.

Every team needs a first pair, just because for a decade it has been filled with jokes like Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson types who are middling guys at best doesn't mean they are bonafide first pairing types. Fact of the matter is it's comments like the one about Foegele-Mcleod-Ryan being 'one of our best' lines that show a huge majority of fans are just that: fans. Fans with allegiances and loyalty and biases so severe that it destabilizes their ability to rationalize what's really going on here. That or maybe they have a poor eye for the game. Like you said, go take a look at our series against Vegas. Watch their bottom 6 versus ours. Watch their defence with the puck vs ours. Watch their defence WITHOUT the puck vs ours. It's night and day. If you can't see that, then you've solidified your role as 'the fan' and that's great, but the name calling and talking down to has to stop. A lot of people here are blind with love for the Oilers and there must be an admittance that it gets in the way of talking rationally.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Here are the stats for that line in the playoffs.

Minutes together: 63:12
CF% 74.76% 77-26
SF% 75% 45-15
GF% 50% 3-3
XGF% 77.23
SCF% 73.08 38-14
HDCF% 81.48% 3-1

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

This does not look all that horrible to me.

Doesn't show the complete picture necessarily as that line, or the players on it had less minutes to play in regular season or playoffs than some other contending teams got. So that the continued formula here is play McDrai until their tongues are dragging on the ice, then play them more..

In anycase both Kostin, and Bjugstad on their own individually matched the scoring contributions of that whole line. We lost both of those players who were better than what we've retained in bottomsix. This is not an errant point. Having solid players in bottomsix that can produce elevates the group. So that even with some line blending the bottom players are more elevated by some of them making contributions over what they would be if none of those contributions had occurred. Bjug and Kostin scoring 6 playoff goals was huge for the team, huge for the bench. It at least offered a look that our bottomsix could get something done. But thats gone now.

 

[Fourier]

So you just decline and let the player walk rather than pay 2yrs for a player on what was an untradeable contract that in the end we got nothing for, and that we even lost a valid player due to, because Kostin had to be added to the contract for Detroit to even take on the contract.

You just walk because the player wasn't much. Yamamoto wasn't much.

How the club decided to even waste a first on this player is beyond me.

Walking was an option for but Yamamoto and JP, and given the guys who were available cheap that might have worked out. But it was probably not a move many GM's would have made last year. I think that things were different this year precisely because so many teams expected a repeat with good players being available for nothing. It kind of backfired though as players went to teams with space for big dollars.

Yamamoto was not a wasted pick. He was a high end junior picked right around where he was ranked in a relatively weak draft class who has actually out performed his draft spot so far. He was a victim of the flat cap. If the cap was at $90M or so as it should be he would still be an Oiler.

 

[Fourier]

Doesn't show the complete picture necessarily as that line, or the players on it had less minutes to play in regular season or playoffs than some other contending teams got. So that the continued formula here is play McDrai until their tongues are dragging on the ice, then play them more..

In anycase both Kostin, and Bjugstad on their own individually matched the scoring contributions of that whole line. We lost both of those players who were better than what we've retained in bottomsix. This is not an errant point. Having solid players in bottomsix that can produce elevates the group. So that even with some line blending the bottom players are more elevated by some of them making contributions over what they would be if none of those contributions had occurred. Bjug and Kostin scoring 6 playoff goals was huge for the team, huge for the bench. It at least offered a look that our bottomsix could get something done. But thats gone now.

What picture does it not show if the claim is that the line was horrible in the playoffs. That claim has nothing to do with Kostin or Bjugstad.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Walking was an option for but Yamamoto and JP, and given the guys who were available cheap that might have worked out. But it was probably not a move many GM's would have made last year. I think that things were different this year precisely because so many teams expected a repeat with good players being available for nothing. It kind of backfired though as players went to teams with space for big dollars.

Yamamoto was not a wasted pick. He was a high end junior picked right around where he was ranked in a relatively weak draft class who has actually out performed his draft spot so far. He was a victim of the flat cap. If the cap was at $90M or so as it should be he would still be an Oiler.

Yams only "outperformed" his draft spot due to being parked with players the likes of McDrai. Really he was a player that was far less prominent in junior than even a Ty Rattie. To me its why you can't just look at selective results you have view every attribute and intangible and top end the play can be. In the case of drafting a player of outlier tiny size Yams was always a risk. I would not have made that pick, which is indelibly clear from my posting.

 

[Drivesaitl]

What picture does it not show if the claim is that the line was horrible in the playoffs. That calim has nothing to do with Kostin or Bjugstad.

It shows a picture that I have trouble looking at just one thing at a time. heh.

Not that I made the claim but sympathetic to the view that you need more complete lineups.

I said what Kostin and Bjugstad had to do with it. Linemixing was evident and these two players elevated for playoffs and found some goals. Without which the bottomsix would be feeling far less of a contribution. On the bench or on ice you can always spot that elation when theres a contribution from bottomsix and I think in the moment it helps elevate the players. Without which they can feel less a part of things. I have grave concern, as @Bryanbryoil does, that our bottomsix got a lot worse since the playoffs.

 

[KCC]

I'm hootin and hollerin over here. It's the same issue with our defence but to an ever greater extent.

People laud Holland for bringing in Kulak and Ceci, who admittedly looked like our two best defenceman for huge swathes of the seasons. When they got here Ceci was our best Dman for the entire season. Kulak stepped in and provided a level of skating and prowess with the puck we haven't seen here in forever.

Now remember these guys were healthy scratched and nobodies on their former teams. Astute pickups by Holland or yet another shining example of how horrible our defence actually is in contrast to the average? You be the judge.

When people all across the league definitively state that Nurse has the worst contract in the NHL it's not because every other fan from every other team has a vendetta against Edmonton. It's because they aren't wearing rose-coloured glasses looking at Nurse fumble around like a blind bambi out there.

Every team needs a first pair, just because for a decade it has been filled with jokes like Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson types who are middling guys at best doesn't mean they are bonafide first pairing types. Fact of the matter is it's comments like the one about Foegele-Mcleod-Ryan being 'one of our best' lines that show a huge majority of fans are just that: fans. Fans with allegiances and loyalty and biases so severe that it destabilizes their ability to rationalize what's really going on here. That or maybe they have a poor eye for the game. Like you said, go take a look at our series against Vegas. Watch their bottom 6 versus ours. Watch their defence with the puck vs ours. Watch their defence WITHOUT the puck vs ours. It's night and day. If you can't see that, then you've solidified your role as 'the fan' and that's great, but the name calling and talking down to has to stop. A lot of people here are blind with love for the Oilers and there must be an admittance that it gets in the way of talking rationally.

Edm has a better top 6 heading into next season but has a worse bottom 6, defense and goaltending is the same. All the same issues. Not enough to get them over the hump. there’s still the trade deadline next year and we don’t know what can happen. But as it stands on paper again, it’s not enough.

Woodcraft as well needs to be better. Too many terrible decisions in the playoffs that cost the team. Hopefully he’s learned.

Guess we will see what happens

 

[Fourier]

Yams only "outperformed" his draft spot due to being parked with players the likes of McDrai. Really he was a player that was far less prominent in junior than even a Ty Rattie. To me its why you can't just look at selective results you have view everyboy attribute and intangible and top end the play can be. In the case of drafting a player of outlier tiny size Yams was always a risk. I would not have made that pick, which is indelibly clear from my posting.

I use to listen to Spokane games on the radio to follow Yamamoto in his draft year and then later Ty Smith as well the year after, a guy who I thought might fit at the time the Oilers. Yamamoto was involved in everything. For a small guy he played with a lot of heart and bite. 99 points and 42 goals on a team filled with young players was a great draft season. He went 22nd to the Oilers after being ranked 24th by McKenzie. If he was bigger he would have gone higher in a year that was pretty light on skill in the second half of the first.

He has played 244 NHL games and has scored 50 goals. That in itself is enough to say that he will very likely outperform his draft spot historically . Overall the average expectation for a forward picked between 21-23 from 1996-2022 is about 338 games in their career and about 80 goals. These are also average numbers. The median is probably a fair bit less. And I'll repeat, it was a weak draft year.

It shows a picture that I have trouble looking at just one thing at a time. heh.

Not that I made the claim but sympathetic to the view that you need more complete lineups.

I said what Kostin and Bjugstad had to do with it. Linemixing was evident and these two players elevated for playoffs and found some goals. Without which the bottomsix would be feeling far less of a contribution. On the bench or on ice you can always spot that elation when theres a contribution from bottomsix and I think in the moment it helps elevate the players. Without which they can feel less a part of things. I have grave concern, as @Bryanbryoil does, that our bottomsix got a lot worse since the playoffs.

Kostin I thought played well in the few minutes he got. To be honest I thought that regular season Bjugstad was better than playoff Bjugstad.

 

[duul]

Edm has a better top 6 heading into next season but has a worse bottom 6, defense and goaltending is the same. All the same issues. Not enough to get them over the hump. there’s still the trade deadline next year and we don’t know what can happen. But as it stands on paper again, it’s not enough.

Woodcraft as well needs to be better. Too many terrible decisions in the playoffs that cost the team. Hopefully he’s learned.

Guess we will see what happens

Absolutely.

For anyone who thinks Brown in place of Yamo is a solution, I don't know what to tell you. Both of them play with McDrai those lines are for the most part automatic. Does McDavid going from 150 to 160 points or even 170 points win us a Cup? Brown might help out with ~10 more goals than Yamamoto does on a season, that's a fair measure in a reasonable good case scenario. Does that put us over the top? Does it even get us into the conversation? Does it address anything that stopped us from winning last year?

Still way too many holes, still leaning on two players winning us a Cup. Never going to work. I think this chicken's cooked lads. I know it's just a forum so when I post I like to have a good laugh about it -- however I do strongly believe our window is already passed. Last season was the season.

I use to listen to Spokane games on the radio to follow Yamamoto in his draft year and then later Ty Smith as well the year after, a guy who I thought might fit at the time the Oilers. Yamamoto was involved in everything. For a small guy he played with a lot of heart and bite. 99 points and 42 goals on a team filled with young players was a great draft season. He went 22nd to the Oilers after being ranked 24th by McKenzie. If he was bigger he would have gone higher in a year that was pretty light on skill in the second half of the first.

He has played 244 NHL games and has scored 50 goals. That in itself is enough to say that he will very likely outperform his draft spot historically . Overall the average expectation for a forward picked between 21-23 from 1996-2022 is about 338 games in their career and about 80 goals. These are also average numbers. The median is probably a fair bit less. And I'll repeat, it was a weak draft year.


Kostin I thought played well in the few minutes he got. To be honest I thought that regular season Bjugstad was better than playoff Bjugstad.

What did you think of regular season vs playoff Ekholm? To me I saw him begin to falter and become exposed to the higher intensity much like a lot of our group. That's why some of us value guys like Kostin so highly. He didn't wilt. Many of our guys did. I know Holloway wouldn't have wilted either. There are guys you can count on in a fight...we have very few of them. Club built for regular season success and as much as the new school guys want to diminish its importance, physicality and fighting and intimidation are all very real things that some nerds can't quantify on computer.

 

[Broberg Speed]

I'm hootin and hollerin over here. It's the same issue with our defence but to an ever greater extent.

People laud Holland for bringing in Kulak and Ceci, who admittedly looked like our two best defenceman for huge swathes of the seasons. When they got here Ceci was our best Dman for the entire season. Kulak stepped in and provided a level of skating and prowess with the puck we haven't seen here in forever.

Now remember these guys were healthy scratched and nobodies on their former teams. Astute pickups by Holland or yet another shining example of how horrible our defence actually is in contrast to the average? You be the judge.

When people all across the league definitively state that Nurse has the worst contract in the NHL it's not because every other fan from every other team has a vendetta against Edmonton. It's because they aren't wearing rose-coloured glasses looking at Nurse fumble around like a blind bambi out there.

Every team needs a first pair, just because for a decade it has been filled with jokes like Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson types who are middling guys at best doesn't mean they are bonafide first pairing types. Fact of the matter is it's comments like the one about Foegele-Mcleod-Ryan being 'one of our best' lines that show a huge majority of fans are just that: fans. Fans with allegiances and loyalty and biases so severe that it destabilizes their ability to rationalize what's really going on here. That or maybe they have a poor eye for the game. Like you said, go take a look at our series against Vegas. Watch their bottom 6 versus ours. Watch their defence with the puck vs ours. Watch their defence WITHOUT the puck vs ours. It's night and day. If you can't see that, then you've solidified your role as 'the fan' and that's great, but the name calling and talking down to has to stop. A lot of people here are blind with love for the Oilers and there must be an admittance that it gets in the way of talking rationally.

100% truth bomb

 

[Fourier]

Absolutely.

For anyone who thinks Brown in place of Yamo is a solution, I don't know what to tell you. Both of them play with McDrai those lines are for the most part automatic. Does McDavid going from 150 to 160 points or even 170 points win us a Cup? Brown might help out with ~10 more goals than Yamamoto does on a season, that's a fair measure in a reasonable good case scenario. Does that put us over the top? Does it even get us into the conversation? Does it address anything that stopped us from winning last year?

Still way too many holes, still leaning on two players winning us a Cup. Never going to work. I think this chicken's cooked lads. I know it's just a forum so when I post I like to have a good laugh about it -- however I do strongly believe our window is already passed. Last season was the season.


What did you think of regular season vs playoff Ekholm? To me I saw him begin to falter and become exposed to the higher intensity much like a lot of our group. That's why some of us value guys like Kostin so highly. He didn't wilt. Many of our guys did. I know Holloway wouldn't have wilted either. There are guys you can count on in a fight...we have very few of them. Club built for regular season success and as much as the new school guys want to diminish its importance, physicality and fighting and intimidation are all very real things that some nerds can't quantify on computer.

I thought playoff Ekholm was still very good at both ends of the ice. I don't think he wilted at all though regular season Ekholm was spectacular.

LA and Vegas were both very good teams. La was underrated, and Vegas won the cup dominating every other team they played far more than they did the Oilers. You would be askinga lot to expect any player to have the same results playing only against top teams as they do against the full league.

Against Vegas the Bouchard/Ekholm pair was on for 4 goals four and 4 goals against 5 vs 5 in 75 minutes and scoring chances were. VS LA it was 4GF 3GA in 98 minutes. I both series they were pretty significantly in the black on scoring chances (61.25% vs Vegas) . I am not sure how you can complain about that given the match-ups they got vs two excellent teams.

Kostins contributions are being exaggerate here I think. Yes he scored 3 goals. But vs Vegas for example he was on the ice for 3 GA and 1 GF in 43 minutes 5 vs 5. And the Oilers were 2-9 in scoring chances. Moreover, unlike the Bouchard/Ekholm pairing he was not playing against the Knights best.

Physicality has value, and I love watching him play. But in anyway suggesting that a guy like Kostin contributes to winning in the same way as Ekholm does seems a massive stretch.

 

[ManofSteel55]

An astute GM doesn't rote pay players on selective numbers. Thats what arbitration does. Informed management is supposed to spot more than that.

Nor should anybody equate the production from playing exclusively with two generational superstars to what most players have to play with. A lack of understanding of the superstar effect and its elevation of others pts needs some understanding when looking at production and who's moving that.

Sather laughed at Blair MacDonalds agent saying a fire hydrant could score 40 goals playing with Gretzky. He was right.


Even as a fan of Ryan and McLeod its laughable to suggest they were among our better player or solid 3rd line. Its depth like that which tempts a coach to play topsix much more minutes.

It isn't selective numbers. It's literally the metric players are paid by. Guess what - Yamamoto could have went to arbitration, and in arbitration, they look at stats. They don't care about the "but he played with Draisaitl and McDavid to prop up his numbers" argument. Chances are, he got closer to 4M in arbitration. The danger there of course, is that if he got, say, 3.9M, they couldn't even walk away from the arbitration award. That just would have been the his salary. Sather didn't have to wonder if Blair MacDonald was going to get 4M in arbitration when he told him to pound sand, did he?

 

[ManofSteel55]

So you just decline and let the player walk rather than pay 2yrs for a player on what was an untradeable contract that in the end we got nothing for, and that we even lost a valid player due to, because Kostin had to be added to the contract for Detroit to even take on the contract.

You just walk because the player wasn't much. Yamamoto wasn't much.

How the club decided to even waste a first on this player is beyond me.

You can't just decline and let a player walk unless the arbitration award is over a certain threshold, I believe 4M. So Yamamoto could have gotten a 3.9M award and we would have been stuck with him. Is 2X 3.1 better than 1X 3.9M for the same 20 goal scorer? Usually the answer is yes. If Yamamoto didn't get hurt and have an awful season, the answer is also yes.

As for why they used a 1st on Yamamoto, its because he showed near elite talent in junior. If he was average sized, he would have been a top 5 pick. That's why. He was a mid 20's 1st round pick. The odds that those players end up being an NHL'er aren't very good. It's not like they wasted a sure-fire top pick on him. The only player picked after him in the 1st that's had a significantly better career to date is Oettinger, and the only one in the 2nd round was Jason Robertson.

On a side note, holy smokes Dallas. Heiskanen, Oettinger and Robertson in the first two rounds of a draft. Grand slam baby.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So you just decline and let the player walk rather than pay 2yrs for a player on what was an untradeable contract that in the end we got nothing for, and that we even lost a valid player due to, because Kostin had to be added to the contract for Detroit to even take on the contract.

You just walk because the player wasn't much. Yamamoto wasn't much.

How the club decided to even waste a first on this player is beyond me.

Unless the contract was over 4.5 the Oilers couldn't just walk away.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I've said this before but I firmly believe the extra year was necessary to get Yamamoto to sign for $3.1M because in arbitration he could have gotten closer to $4M coming off a 20 goal season. People don't believe this but arbitration is pretty much entirely about comparative numbers. The arbitrator does not watch hokey nor does he/she care that those points were with McDavid. Had he received say $3.9M the Oilers would have been stuck. It would have pretty much meant moving out Foegele just to be able to field a 20-1 man roster since they were so tight to the cap.

Could we walk from the award or is it binding? If that was even a chance it would've been better to walk away and look elsewhere. If the rumblings of "the core" loving Yamamoto are true and not wanting Foegele moved I hope that they are content if our team loses because one hand was tied behind our GM's back.

The good news is there is a ton of time before the trade deadline to add to our bottom six. It shouldn't be hard to add another Bjugstad level player later on in the season when teams are selling off assets and willing to retain salary. It's always harder to fill holes in the top six.

Maybe not but we may need those assets for an upgrade on D or top 6 help in the event of an injury. Patch as many holes as you can in the offseason and save your currency for the draft and the deadline.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The issue with Yamamoto is that he never had elite skill. Smaller guys need to be exceptionally strong, exceptionally fast, exceptionally skilled or a combination of the 3 to really be an impact player at the NHL level. Yamamoto played a big mans game in Jr. by always being around the net but he just couldn't translate that to the NHL consistently at this level. That is where IMO scouts screwed up on their projections of him.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Could we walk from the award or is it binding? If that was even a chance it would've been better to walk away and look elsewhere. If the rumblings of "the core" loving Yamamoto are true and not wanting Foegele moved I hope that they are content if our team loses because one hand was tied behind our GM's back.

Maybe not but we may need those assets for an upgrade on D or top 6 help in the event of an injury. Patch as many holes as you can in the offseason and save your currency for the draft and the deadline.

Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA [CBA 12.10(a)]
Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 2 years and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the second (2nd) year of the awarded salary, making the player a UFA at the end of year 1 [CBA 12.10(b)]

We wouldn't have been able to walk away.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The issue with Yamamoto is that he never had elite skill. Smaller guys need to be exceptionally strong, exceptionally fast, exceptionally skilled or a combination of the 3 to really be an impact player at the NHL level. Yamamoto played a big mans game in Jr. by always being around the net but he just couldn't translate that to the NHL consistently at this level. That is where IMO scouts screwed up on their projections of him.

This kind of commonsense is more lost on todays analytics purview where more and more its counting numbers being looked at. Solid post. You nailed it. Particularly in high picks a broader view of intangibles and attributes needs to be assessed. It seems instead that more numbers get tabulated instead. At the time that Yams was drafted you'll recall everybody and their grandmother were shouting at me for suggesting Yams wasn't going to be much at this level. That his outlier size would negate his game at this level and that his skill was deficient for a tiny player. Really without being glued to McDrai all these years what did he even get? This dog won't hunt. Seattle picking him up seems sentimental.

Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA [CBA 12.10(a)]
Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 2 years and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the second (2nd) year of the awarded salary, making the player a UFA at the end of year 1 [CBA 12.10(b)]

We wouldn't have been able to walk away.

Would Yama be awarded over that amount? is that really a possibility the team needed to be worried about?

My take at the time is best value served would have been pump and dump the year he hit 20 goals. Get an asset for him. Its when his value was at peak. Most teams recognize the injury history of their players and specifically concussion history. Its requisite that the Oilers make more informed decisions on their players rather than handing out a contract.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It isn't selective numbers. It's literally the metric players are paid by. Guess what - Yamamoto could have went to arbitration, and in arbitration, they look at stats. They don't care about the "but he played with Draisaitl and McDavid to prop up his numbers" argument. Chances are, he got closer to 4M in arbitration. The danger there of course, is that if he got, say, 3.9M, they couldn't even walk away from the arbitration award. That just would have been the his salary. Sather didn't have to wonder if Blair MacDonald was going to get 4M in arbitration when he told him to pound sand, did he?

Foresight and planning is a primary task of any management. You realize the parameters, risks, and incoming situation in advance. Its not like the arbitration rules are unknown. If that kind of situation is expected Holland had some advance warning of that. You don't just stumble to that line and then say I'm fooked. Yams could have been dealt for an asset before it got to the contractual impasse. The outlier goal production season would've been time to do that. I'm just some punter and I was saying Yams would never sniff 20 goals again. Concussions had already occurred.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

This kind of commonsense is more lost on todays analytics purview where more and more its counting numbers being looked at. Solid post. You nailed it. Particularly in high picks a broader view of intangibles and attributes needs to be assessed. It seems instead that more numbers get tabulated instead. At the time that Yams was drafted you'll recall everybody and their grandmother were shouting at me for suggesting Yams wasn't going to be much at this level. That his outlier size would negate his game at this level and that his skill was deficient for a tiny player. Really without being glued to McDrai all these years what did he even get? This dog won't hunt. Seattle picking him up seems sentimental.


Would Yama be awarded over that amount? is that really a possibility the team needed to be worried about?

My take at the time is best value served would have been pump and dump the year he hit 20 goals. Get an asset for him. Its when his value was at peak. Most teams recognize the injury history of their players and specifically concussion history. Its requisite that the Oilers make more informed decisions on their players rather than handing out a contract.

The problem is yams would be awarded less than that. They can’t walk away from anything less than 4.5. So if he got a 1x4m we couldn’t walk away.

 

[GOilers88]

Absolutely.

For anyone who thinks Brown in place of Yamo is a solution, I don't know what to tell you. Both of them play with McDrai those lines are for the most part automatic. Does McDavid going from 150 to 160 points or even 170 points win us a Cup? Brown might help out with ~10 more goals than Yamamoto does on a season, that's a fair measure in a reasonable good case scenario. Does that put us over the top? Does it even get us into the conversation? Does it address anything that stopped us from winning last year?

Still way too many holes, still leaning on two players winning us a Cup. Never going to work. I think this chicken's cooked lads. I know it's just a forum so when I post I like to have a good laugh about it -- however I do strongly believe our window is already passed. Last season was the season.


What did you think of regular season vs playoff Ekholm? To me I saw him begin to falter and become exposed to the higher intensity much like a lot of our group. That's why some of us value guys like Kostin so highly. He didn't wilt. Many of our guys did. I know Holloway wouldn't have wilted either. There are guys you can count on in a fight...we have very few of them. Club built for regular season success and as much as the new school guys want to diminish its importance, physicality and fighting and intimidation are all very real things that some nerds can't quantify on computer.

If you don’t think Brown is a better all around player than Yamamoto, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Your chicken is cooked, man.

 

[Oilhawks]

If you don’t think Brown is a better all around player than Yamamoto, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Your chicken is cooked, man.

Something certainly seems to have flown the roost in the duulard household, at least

 

[Fourier]

This kind of commonsense is more lost on todays analytics purview where more and more its counting numbers being looked at. Solid post. You nailed it. Particularly in high picks a broader view of intangibles and attributes needs to be assessed. It seems instead that more numbers get tabulated instead. At the time that Yams was drafted you'll recall everybody and their grandmother were shouting at me for suggesting Yams wasn't going to be much at this level. That his outlier size would negate his game at this level and that his skill was deficient for a tiny player. Really without being glued to McDrai all these years what did he even get? This dog won't hunt. Seattle picking him up seems sentimental.


Would Yama be awarded over that amount? is that really a possibility the team needed to be worried about?

My take at the time is best value served would have been pump and dump the year he hit 20 goals. Get an asset for him. Its when his value was at peak. Most teams recognize the injury history of their players and specifically concussion history. Its requisite that the Oilers make more informed decisions on their players rather than handing out a contract.

There was no real option for pump and dump precisely because of arbitration. He was looking at a deal close to $4M in a year that few teams had any cap. Same thing with JP who probably would have gotten $3.5M in arbitration. Teams trading for either of these two knew that and would have been in the same boat as the Oilers. This is precisely why you have seen so many unqualified RFA's this year. With the flat cap teams could not risk arbitration. If Yamamoto had gotten $4M you would have been stuck with him. HE would have required an asset to trade and you could not walk away. That would also have meant that the Oilers would have had to move someone else to be able to ice even a 20 man roster.

 

[duul]

If you don’t think Brown is a better all around player than Yamamoto, then I don’t know what to tell you.

Your chicken is cooked, man.

Why are you putting words in my mouth? I was very clear about the difference between the two. We paid a price of Kostin just to get rid of Yamamoto for 3 million, then go ahead and sign a guy for 4 million who plays the same position and who will ultimately change the team to a degree that is simply not worth it.

Think about it rationally. We essentially paid Kostin plus an EXTRA 1 million in cap to go from Yamamoto to Brown. We moved Yamamoto because he wasn't worth 3 million. We had to pay a great prospect type player just to rid ourselves of his contract, only to go out and replace him with a guy who plays the same position slightly better. In what way is this a wise decision when there are glaring holes all over the roster?

 

[GOilers88]

Why are you putting words in my mouth? I was very clear about the difference between the two. We paid a price of Kostin just to get rid of Yamamoto for 3 million, then go ahead and sign a guy for 4 million who plays the same position and who will ultimately change the team to a degree that is simply not worth it.

Think about it rationally. We essentially paid Kostin plus an EXTRA 1 million in cap to go from Yamamoto to Brown. We moved Yamamoto because he wasn't worth 3 million. We had to pay a great prospect type player just to rid ourselves of his contract, only to go out and replace him with a guy who plays the same position slightly better. In what way is this a wise decision when there are glaring holes all over the roster?

This year we paid Kostin to dump Yamamoto and replaced him with a much better player at league minimum. His cap hit has zero impact on the team this year, and I find it absolutely hilarious how hard some of you are railing against the move because of what it might mean 2 seasons later. But you do you. Keep crying about the season after next like the one coming up doesn’t matter.

A move for a big time goalie isn’t at all realistic, and if that’s what you would prefer then you can’t complain about addressing one hole when there are multiple, because the team would most certainly have to blow all of its assets to dump Campbell and try to acquire one of Hellebuyck or Saros, leaving nothing to address the defense at the deadline, and it seems highly likely that the defense will get another deadline addition this coming season, which means they will have upgraded the top six, half of which were absent last playoffs, as well as the defense, instead of going all in for a goalie and leaving the forwards and defense as is.

I also think it’s silly to think the current bottom six is now off limits for additions or in some way a massive glaring weakness because deadline rental Bjugstad is gone with Kostin. Kostin is not making or breaking this team regardless of what we all may think of him, but replacing Yams with Brown is likely to be just as, if not more impactful, than acquiring Kostin was last season.