Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV) PART II

[Ragdoll]

Nurse got overpaid due to circumstance, Jones set the market and several defencemen around the same caliber as Nurse followed. That’s just a fact, it’s either follow the trend and pay him or lose him for nothing.

He’s not worth 9.25m but people pretending like he’s some one dimensional defenceman and a liability when Connor and Leon aren’t on the ice need to watch games instead of stat watching. The depth of the team was brutal, don’t believe me? Watch the Jets and Oilers playoff series, particularly game 4. Tippet would have rather iced 6-7 forwards and 4 dmen in a TRIPLE OT game. If that doesn’t scream garbage depth, not sure what will. So yes when two of the top 5 players in the world aren’t on the ice, his analytics drop, no f***ing shit. If there was a true year to judge him, it’s this year when the team is going ice three, arguably four reliable forward lines and 6 dmen that the coach can actually trust.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Nurse - Barrie - same
Keith >>>>>> Caleb Jones
Ceci << Larsson
3LD = same (Russell, Lagesson, Koekoek)
3RD Bouchard > Bear - not sure how many > to put here, but Bear struggled really hard last year.

The parts of the core are better this year. It will depend on if we have the right guys for the right roles.

Agree to disagree. I’ve already said a number of times why I think they’ve taken a step back.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Agree to disagree. I’ve already said a number of times why I think they’ve taken a step back.

You've also LOL'd at it quite a bit but you don't seem to have a problem continuing with that. Not sure which part you can disagree with anyway, they are all objective comparisons. You must think Caleb Jones is a better player than Duncan Keith.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

You've also LOL'd at it quite a bit but you don't seem to have a problem continuing with that. Not sure which part you can disagree with anyway, they are all objective comparisons. You must think Caleb Jones is a better player than Duncan Keith.

I disagree with both your methodology and your subjective conclusion.
What you’ve done is cherry pick players to compare to each other.
The correct methodology is to compare the players you lost as a whole to the players you gained and then arrive at a subjective conclusion. My conclusion is that you’ve under estimated the loss of Larsson which provides a skill set the current group lacks. Subjectively you disagree. Which is why I said agree to disagree.
We will see who is right.

 

[Roof Daddy]

I disagree with both your methodology and your subjective conclusion.
What you’ve done is cherry pick players to compare to each other.
The correct methodology is to compare the players you lost as a whole to the players you gained and then arrive at a subjective conclusion. My conclusion is that you’ve under estimated the loss of Larsson which provides a skill set the current group lacks. Subjectively you disagree. Which is why I said agree to disagree.
We will see who is right.

How are the comparisons "cherrypicked?"

Last year the most common D grouping (prior to trading for Kulikov) was:

Nurse-Barrie
Russell-Larsson
Jones-Bear

Jones was traded for Keith; Ceci was brought in to replace Larsson. The only other way you could possibly examine it is like this:

Keith replaces Russell (upgrade)
Ceci replaces Larsson (downgrade)
Russell replaces Jones (upgrade/neutral)
Bouchard replaces Bear (at the very least its neutral, but I'd say upgrade based on the likely improvements of Bouchard)

If you want to put a ton of stock in the downgrade of Larsson to Ceci (which is fair) I still don't see how anyone can say we got worse on the back end? I'd agree we didn't improve, but I don't see it being worse.

 

[Chabot84]

Or people aren't using stats from an outlier anomaly where he only played against 1/4 of the league in what's known as a very poor division. One of these years is not like the others

View attachment 462143

How many of those 36 points against the Sens while they were imploding?

 

[Ragdoll]

I disagree with both your methodology and your subjective conclusion.
What you’ve done is cherry pick players to compare to each other.
The correct methodology is to compare the players you lost as a whole to the players you gained and then arrive at a subjective conclusion. My conclusion is that you’ve under estimated the loss of Larsson which provides a skill set the current group lacks. Subjectively you disagree. Which is why I said agree to disagree.
We will see who is right.

Isn’t that exactly what he’s doing? He’s looking at the Oilers d-core changes as a whole and saying it’s an improvement over what they had last year. You seem to be looking only at the Larsson loss which while I agree it’s a loss, he’s a defender and pretty meh in most other facets of the game.

People seem to confuse Holland’s poor use of salary cap with the Oilers defence getting worse. Listen, I don’t love his moves on the back end but the Oilers are about the same if not a bit better than last year. I would say people are underestimating what Bouchard can bring to the Oilers.

 

[Chabot84]

This quote kinda raises eyebrows

World Hockey Report @worldhockeyrpt
Theory: if the Oilers don’t trade Caleb Jones then Chicago doesn’t get Seth Jones and extend him $9.5M then Darnell Nurse’s number is $8M.

I still feel like 8M is high.

 

[Mr Positive]

This quote kinda raises eyebrows

World Hockey Report @worldhockeyrpt
Theory: if the Oilers don’t trade Caleb Jones then Chicago doesn’t get Seth Jones and extend him $9.5M then Darnell Nurse’s number is $8M.

I still feel like 8M is high.

The idea that Seth signed because of Caleb is silly.

There were rumors that the discussions were for a 4 year deal for Nurse. Maybe that deal would have been more like 8 AAV, which is good for a pure UFA Dman like him. My suspicion is that management preferred an 8 year deal rather than have to get raises for Nurse and Draisaitl in the same offseason.

Nurse has top end tools. He has always bet on himself. He would have been fine to make less AAV on less term and make more than 9.25 on the next deal. Management made a gamble on this deal, that Nurse has the tools and ability to keep on his upward trajectory, and that a lot of his warts have to do with flaws in the team around him. Imo, it is a good bet.

The Seth Jones contract was a good thing for Oilers management because it made 9AAV X 8 deals for #1 Dmen with some issues into a standard.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

They're paying Nurse as if he was a doctor.

He is a Dr, but we need a mortician

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The only one cherry picking is you.

You Cherry pick Larsson v Ceci to support your bad and trollish argument. And ignore the obvious upgrades in Keith v Jones and Bouchard v Bear.

Nope. I never did that.
Read first. Then post.
If you can’t debate honestly then don’t bother responding to me in the future.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Still can't believe this overpay dang

 

[ManofSteel55]

Nope. I never did that.
Read first. Then post.
If you can’t debate honestly then don’t bother responding to me in the future.

We are debating with you honestly. I used a direct comparison, pair by pair, and even suggested that the way they are deployed will tell the true tale. You categorically denied it, despite it being the most basic, straight up, and accurate way to compare last years D core to this one. And all you can do is LOL about it in response.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

We are debating with you honestly. I used a direct comparison, pair by pair, and even suggested that the way they are deployed will tell the true tale. You categorically denied it, despite it being the most basic, straight up, and accurate way to compare last years D core to this one. And all you can do is LOL about it in response.

Are you more than one poster?
I never accused you of not debating honestly. I never LOL’ed at any of your posts. Both of those responses were to another poster who misrepresented my position and claimed that anyone who didn’t think the Oilers D was better didn’t know about the Oilers.
I’ve already responded in detail as to why your methodology is flawed and I don’t see the point in just going in circles in debating your subjective conclusions as it’s clear we disagree. That’s fine.

 

[OG Eberle]

Or people aren't using stats from an outlier anomaly where he only played against 1/4 of the league in what's known as a very poor division. One of these years is not like the others

View attachment 462143

The only real "outlier" stat from his season is his goal total, which I don't think you'll find many Oiler fans saying is suspected.

Quite literally every other stat is on par with his previous seasons and continued with a general positive progression as a player... as one would expect.

His "outlier" season isn't as "outlying" as you make it sound.

 

[Voight]

Nurse got overpaid due to circumstance, Jones set the market and several defencemen around the same caliber as Nurse followed. That’s just a fact, it’s either follow the trend and pay him or lose him for nothing.

He’s not worth 9.25m but people pretending like he’s some one dimensional defenceman and a liability when Connor and Leon aren’t on the ice need to watch games instead of stat watching. The depth of the team was brutal, don’t believe me? Watch the Jets and Oilers playoff series, particularly game 4. Tippet would have rather iced 6-7 forwards and 4 dmen in a TRIPLE OT game. If that doesn’t scream garbage depth, not sure what will. So yes when two of the top 5 players in the world aren’t on the ice, his analytics drop, no f***ing shit. If there was a true year to judge him, it’s this year when the team is going ice three, arguably four reliable forward lines and 6 dmen that the coach can actually trust.

Every single one is better than Nurse. So that excuse doesn't work. He had them in a good spot given if they didn't agree and he walked next summer, it would hurt the team and make them worse, when they need to be competing for the playoffs / keep McDavid happy.

Still can't believe this overpay dang

Convinced Nurse's agent kidnapped Holland and forced him to sign. Thats the only way.

 

[bsu]

Probably one of the most surprising deals I have ever seen. I couldn't believe it when I first read it.

 

[Ragdoll]

Every single one is better than Nurse. So that excuse doesn't work. He had them in a good spot given if they didn't agree and he walked next summer, it would hurt the team and make them worse, when they need to be competing for the playoffs / keep McDavid happy.



Convinced Nurse's agent kidnapped Holland and forced him to sign. Thats the only way.

That’s up for debate but sure, assuming what you say is true. They all got paid higher than him. Jones 9.5m x 8, Werenski signed 9.58 x 6 and Makar signed 9m x 6, Hamilton got 9m x 7 which are all higher contract values with the exception of Hamilton. So he signed a contract in that range so yes my point still stands.
Again, it’s either sign him comparatively to those players or lose him. Either way, people are going to rag on the Oilers.

 

[Chayos]

I disagree with both your methodology and your subjective conclusion.
What you’ve done is cherry pick players to compare to each other.
The correct methodology is to compare the players you lost as a whole to the players you gained and then arrive at a subjective conclusion. My conclusion is that you’ve under estimated the loss of Larsson which provides a skill set the current group lacks. Subjectively you disagree. Which is why I said agree to disagree.
We will see who is right.

You are correct ythat losing Larsson did hurt, but addi g Keith and his experience to our young group will balance out that loss. We have a fleet of young defenceman that will benefit.

 

[GOilers88]

The only real "outlier" stat from his season is his goal total, which I don't think you'll find many Oiler fans saying is suspected.

Quite literally every other stat is on par with his previous seasons and continued with a general positive progression as a player... as one would expect.

His "outlier" season isn't as "outlying" as you make it sound.

Yeah Im still waiting for him to post the same chart for Ristolainen, as the claim is he's basically a Risto.

 

[yzerman]

The real number on Nurse should be 7,85 on 8 year deal absolute max!Holland must been drunk and wrote his lottery numbers on the check

 

[Larry Hanson]

The only real "outlier" stat from his season is his goal total, which I don't think you'll find many Oiler fans saying is suspected.

Quite literally every other stat is on par with his previous seasons and continued with a general positive progression as a player... as one would expect.

His "outlier" season isn't as "outlying" as you make it sound.

The biggest outlier stat was his huge jump in shooting percentage, it was about 3.5x higher than the previous year and slightly less than double his previous all time best year (2016-17). That huge jump of course leads directly to the increased goal count. Unless you think that shooting percentage is the new normal then it is likely his goals will go back down somewhere close to his average next year, somewhere in the 10ish goal range, which will also bring his points back close to where they were previously.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

10 more points from the #1 pp in the NHL and he's right there w Fox.

Fox had 23 pp points to Nurse's 7. Oilers have the best pp in the league and Nurse still finished 7th in Norris votes with 36 points.

It's not rocket appliances

He was already 4th in TOI in the entire league. How is the actual F would he have also taken Tyson Barrie’s PP TOI? Play him 30 mins a game? If he had to run the PP which he’s not as good as Barrie on, obviously since Barrie literally lead the league in D scoring those mins have to come from somewhere else.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Nurse has been better than Jones recently. I think you’re seriously downplaying how good Nurse is.

Having said that, the Jones contract really screwed the market up. Werenski and Nurse were massive beneficiaries from that. All 3 are quite steep contracts but they’re through when those 3 should all be in their primes.

The fact Holland eating the full cap hit on Keith allowed Chicago to mess up the D market with Jones doesn’t give him a pass on the brutal Nurse contract. He’s literally the GM who placated Bowmans ability to do this. Holland is terrible and Edmonton’s window is slamming shut with his final nails in the coffin built by Chiarelli. The Draisaitl contract would have been an overpayment and a more than reasonable ceiling to match too. Holland is trash though so this is expected if you have been paying attention

 

[DingDongCharlie]

You are correct ythat losing Larsson did hurt, but addi g Keith and his experience to our young group will balance out that loss. We have a fleet of young defenceman that will benefit.

We have 1 young D expected to see full time duties this season. Let’s pump those brakes