Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV) PART II

[10Ducky10]

Defensive stats are garbage. There are a billion different defensive metrics that show all sorts of things. You can find defensive stats that show a player is both good and bad. There have been countless cases that have shown bad defensive players to be good defensively, and the opposite as well. The fact is that Darnell Nurse emerged as an elite defenseman last year. Literally the only logical criticism I can see with this contract when given the comparables signed this summer, is wondering if he can repeat last season, as it was his first year hitting that level. All of the "defensive stats show he sucks" posts show why experts are so selective in which analytics they use. You can't judge defensive play with stats most of the time.

McDavid is elite.
Drai is elite.
Nurse is not elite.
Just because he is getting paid what an elite D man makes, it does not make him elite. An elite D man is good in every zone.

 

[ManofSteel55]

McDavid is elite.
Drai is elite.
Nurse is not elite.
Just because he is getting paid what an elite D man makes, it does not make him elite. An elite D man is good in every zone.

If he was getting paid like an elite d-man he would be getting Karlsson or Doughty money. He just signed a similar deal to Hamilton and Werenski, neither are any better than Nurse defensively.

 

[ManofSteel55]

So, if both top end stars on the Oilers are not on the ice, then Nurse is playing with AHLers.

That seems to be a roster construction and cap management issue. ..oh wait, Nurse has a huge contract and it's totally unrelated

It is a roster construction issue. That's why those guys are nearly all gone and replaced with upgrades.

 

[10Ducky10]

If he was getting paid like an elite d-man he would be getting Karlsson or Doughty money. He just signed a similar deal to Hamilton and Werenski, neither are any better than Nurse defensively.

You should watch Werenski play before commenting.
Werenski is MUCH better than Nurse. He's better than Jones and Nurse isn't as good as Jones.

 

[Chet Manley]

Usually I get less sour about contracts my teams sign over time, but it's not happening with this one. Just a hard one to logic myself into. Only hope is that he still has a higher ceiling. He was a workhorse and at the top of his game against the Jets and it wasn't good enough to tilt the ice the right direction. Most $9M players can do that.... especially if on the ice with 2 of the best players in the world.

 

[JAK]

It is a roster construction issue. That's why those guys are nearly all gone and replaced with upgrades.

We can revisit whether the changes were upgrades or not, at the end of the season

 

[Larry Hanson]

Reminds me of when McDavid was negotiating an extension. Everyone (mainly leafs fans and media) was bombarding him to sign min term, 4 years. If he did, he'd be a UFA next summer, at 25 yrs old. Leafs fans thought it was a certainty McDavid wanted out of Edmonton and that he was going to sign a short term deal. Not even 2 weeks of negotiating, McDavid signs maximum term of 8 years, making him an Oiler all the way until 2026. Leafs fans/media: "12.5!! What? McGreedy! He'll never win a cup! Matthews will be so much better than him anyway!". They turned on him real quick, like a bratty toddler that didn't get his cookie before dinner.

I seem to remember the vast majority of hockey fans thought McDavid took a small discount, probably in the 1.5-2M range.
Not sure why you are trying to compare McDavid and Nurse anyway, if anything the situations are opposite, Nurse sure as hell didn't take a discount.

 

[Harbour Dog]

As soon as the best players on any team steps off the ice the ice is bound to slant back the other way. Everyone looks worse when McKinnon and Rantanen jump off the ice. Or Matthews and Marner, or even Panarin-Zibanejad. The difference is, the Oilers depth players lost them games, where most teams' depth players actually contributed.

4 AHL players, yes. If McDavid's line and Draisaitl's line were not on the ice, that means he was playing with 2-4 AHL caliber players at a time. Usually an entire line of forwards, and sometimes a defenseman if he was on the ice with Bear, who struggled mightily last year.

Tell me, which of the following players is any more than an AHL player right now? Gaetan Haas. James Neal. Alex Chaisson. That was a line we had out there. 3 AHL caliber forwards. How about Tyler Ennis, Jujhar Khaira and Dominik Kahun? How about Kyle Turris? He lost his job half way through the year because he was so bad. Only one of those guys has an NHL job right now, and he's a PK specialist only - Khaira. Turris will be on the waiver wire before training camp is over. All AHL level players. So don't tell me its hyperbole to suggest that when the top 2 lines were off the ice, it was mostly AHL level forwards on it. The only ones in our bottom six last year who actually played like NHL'ers were Josh Archibald, and Ryan McLeod, who was called up after tearing up the AHL, but still didn't produce much, he just didn't get destroyed.

Neither Zibanejad nor Panarin had a positive CF% or xGF% at 5v5, when away from Fox.

Meanwhile, Fox had a 51.86 CF% and 57 xGF% when not on the ice with either one of those guys.

 

[Finner]

Its been a while and still cant stop laughing at this. Darnell fking Nurse for 9.25M this is the ultimate overpay. #FreeMcDavid

 

[OilersCoffeeArtBeer]

Its been a while and still cant stop laughing at this. Darnell fking Nurse for 9.25M this is the ultimate overpay. #FreeMcDavid

#freethisthreadfromyourpresence

 

[zar]

Its been a while and still cant stop laughing at this. Darnell fking Nurse for 9.25M this is the ultimate overpay. #FreeMcDavid

I would rather over pay Nurse than have him leave Edmonton for nothing and watch him play well for another team while we fill the hole he leaves with a far less talented player.

BTW, The Breadman says 'Hi!'.

________________________________________________________________
Disclaimer (and I will be adding this to every post I add in this thread):
Nurse is being over paid by $1.25m AAV in my opinion. I defend this contract because he is a high end talent and he is being signed by the Edmonton Oilers, a city that is one of the least desirable locations (travel, city lifestyle, weather, income tax) in the NHL. The contract is 8 UFA years.
To be clear, I in no way defend the Ceci and Hyman contracts.
What are the Oilers to do?

• Trade Nurse for a lesser Dman then hear the "LOL! Oilers going to Oiler... they have a #1Dman and let him walk for next to nothing"?
• Play Keith a Ceci on their top pairing the year following trading Nurse?
  • or maybe play Broberg and Bouchard on their top pairing?
  • or Overpay (as they always have to) to pay some other inferior UFA?

Anyone bringing Makar and Heiskanen into this argument are talking apples and oranges, since half of their new contracts are RFA years.

 

[DuklaNation]

Canadian teams have to overpay. Perhaps the league should review tax differences between franchises. Long overdue. Cap is fixed, but other variables are not. But I'll let the overlords here tell me I know nothing on this topic.

 

[topshelf15]

Meh,he is a good defender and the Oil need him ...So what else where they supposed to do

 

[ManofSteel55]

We can revisit whether the changes were upgrades or not, at the end of the season

I think we can analyze it now. Unless you are suggesting that Hyman, Foegle and Ryan are on the same level as Haas, Ennis and Kahun.

 

[Disgraced Cosmonaut]

Hyman will help immensely. So will Foegele.

 

[JAK]

I think we can analyze it now. Unless you are suggesting that Hyman, Foegle and Ryan are on the same level as Haas, Ennis and Kahun.

Larsson vs Ceci?
Bear vs whatever?

 

[ManofSteel55]

Larsson vs Ceci?
Bear vs whatever?

Larsson is better than Ceci, but based on what Pittsburgh fans said about Ceci last year, he was okay for them. Larsson leaving hurts a bit, but the gap between him and Ceci is probably significantly less than the improvement we will have on the left side of that pair. Keith, even with his game not what it once was, is still better than the revolving door of failed experiments at 2LD last year (C. Jones, Lagesson, Kulikov).
Bear was horrible last year. I like Bear and was pulling for him to pull out of his issues, but he was the weakest spot on our blueline last year. Evan Bouchard will jump into that spot. He has looked good in his limited time so far, so we will see what he can do, but there are high hopes for him. Honestly, even if Bouchard crashes and burns, Russell was better than Bear last year and would get pushed into his spot.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Its been a while and still cant stop laughing at this. Darnell fking Nurse for 9.25M this is the ultimate overpay. #FreeMcDavid

Nurse is McDavid's best bud on the team. You're mistaken if you think McDavid isn't happy about that deal.

 

[ManofSteel55]

You should watch Werenski play before commenting. Werenski is MUCH better than Nurse. He's better than Jones and Nurse isn't as good as Jones.

Nurse was significantly better than Jones last season so let's get off of the "you'd better watch" garbage. I've seen Werenski play. Great defenseman. I'm not knocking him at all.

 

[LTIR]

Why is this thread still going?
Oilers overpaid Nurse by 1.25M per but oh well. Price you pay to lock up a core player.
8x8 would have been his worth

Time to move on.

 

[General Disarray]

Sham

Nurse is McDavid's best bud on the team. You're mistaken if you think McDavid isn't happy about that deal.

shame Mcd took a discount yet his best friend bud couldn't.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Sham
shame Mcd took a discount yet his best friend bud couldn't.

A discount would have been nice, but I don't blame Nurse for wanting the long term deal at the recently established market value when he was asked to take short "prove it" deals a few times now. He proved it, so pay him his money. I hate the NTC junk, as I always do, but unless he regresses hard, this deal is comparable to comparable defensemen.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think we can analyze it now. Unless you are suggesting that Hyman, Foegle and Ryan are on the same level as Haas, Ennis and Kahun.

Upgrade on forward. Downgrade on D. Rolling the dice on a 40 year old Smith.
Whether that’s an overall upgrade is certainly debatable. I know fans of all teams have a tendency to prefer new toys to the old ones but we will have to wait and see.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Upgrade on forward. Downgrade on D. Rolling the dice on a 40 year old Smith.
Whether that’s an overall upgrade is certainly debatable. I know fans of all teams have a tendency to prefer new toys to the old ones but we will have to wait and see.

Slight downgrade on D maybe. Top pair is the same. Middle pair Keith >>> Jones/Lagesson/Kulikov, but Larsson >>> Ceci. Koekoek/Lagesson/Russell is the same as last year at 3LD. Bouchard will be better than Bear was last year, or if he isn't, Russell will plug in there and has been steadier there than Bear was last year. The cast is similar quality, it depends on how they fit in to the system.

I think you are correct in your analysis on the goaltending though. I'm not confident that Smith can match what he did last year, because that was just so impressive. Ideally, we could have gotten that Keumper deal done and went with Keumper-Smith, but Sakic paid a high price for one year of Kuemper and I'm glad we didn't beat it, so now we are in the same boat as last year, with Smith coming off a career year, and Koskinen needing to bounce back. I suspect Holland is still searching for a goalie, and wouldn't be shocked if he makes a trade for one part way through the season to help solidify things if necessary.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

How is this the contract still being talked about weeks after it was signed when a much worse contract was handed out to a worse dman (Seth Jones) and worse contracts were even handed out for the Oilers themselves (Ceci)?????????????????????

Like we all get it, he's a top pairing probably closer to #2 dman being paid as a #1 and about 1.5 million or so overpaid, so what? Go make fun of the Jones contract who got that after an abysmal season, or the Ceci contract where we overpaid by a similar amount except to a #4/5 dman.