Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV) PART II

[ManofSteel55]

Is this "type of situation" the type of situation where you want to believe a player is good at something when the stats say otherwise?

It's the situation where people haven't watched a player play enough to gauge his ability so they rely on flawed advanced stats that they don't fully understand to try to make it sound like they know what they are talking about.

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Part 2 and I still can’t believe we live in world where Nurse is worth 8x9.25M

Agreed. Waaaayyyy to much money.

 

[TFHockey]

How to sum up a thirty two page thread in one post:

Oilers suck! No one wants to sign there long term! Nurse will only sign for four years and then he and McDavid are gone! HAHAHAHA

<Nurse signs for eights years>

Oilers suck! You paid too much for Nurse and signed him for too long! HAHAHAHA

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

How to sum up a thirty two page thread in one post:

Oilers suck! No one wants to sign there long term! Nurse will only sign for four years and then he and McDavid are gone! HAHAHAHA

<Nurse signs for eights years>

Oilers suck! You paid too much for Nurse and signed him for too long! HAHAHAHA

Reminds me of when McDavid was negotiating an extension. Everyone (mainly leafs fans and media) was bombarding him to sign min term, 4 years. If he did, he'd be a UFA next summer, at 25 yrs old. Leafs fans thought it was a certainty McDavid wanted out of Edmonton and that he was going to sign a short term deal. Not even 2 weeks of negotiating, McDavid signs maximum term of 8 years, making him an Oiler all the way until 2026. Leafs fans/media: "12.5!! What? McGreedy! He'll never win a cup! Matthews will be so much better than him anyway!". They turned on him real quick, like a bratty toddler that didn't get his cookie before dinner.

And the best part, Matthews signs a 5 yr deal, making him a UFA at 26 yrs old, with the obvious intention of going home, right in his prime. Karma is beautiful. They're paying 3 forwards over 11M each, and they point and laugh at us for signing our #1 dman for 9? lmao

Darnell Nurse finished 7th in Norris trophy voting, and for good reason:
-4th in the NHL for average TOI at 25:38
-1st in even strength goals by defenseman at 15
-despite being rarely used on the powerplay with only 7 pp pts, he still finished 12th in pts amongst defenseman with 36
-5th in +/- @ +27
-top 30 in both hits and blocked shots
And he's still only 26 yrs old, taking leaps every season

He's going to be worth every dollar of his well deserved career deal, and I'm escatic our #1 defenseman is ours for the next 9 years. After getting Larsson'd and Bear happy to be leaving, this was the most necessary priority for Holland, and he locked up our cornerstone defenseman. I'm a huge fan the work Holland has put in this summer, and Oiler fans are going to change their minds real quick about this off season come game time

 

[HugginThePost]

Reminds me of when McDavid was negotiating an extension. Everyone (mainly leafs fans and media) was bombarding him to sign min term, 4 years. If he did, he'd be a UFA next summer, at 25 yrs old. Leafs fans thought it was a certainty McDavid wanted out of Edmonton and that he was going to sign a short term deal. Not even 2 weeks of negotiating, McDavid signs maximum term of 8 years, making him an Oiler all the way until 2026. Leafs fans/media: "12.5!! What? McGreedy! He'll never win a cup! Matthews will be so much better than him anyway!". They turned on him real quick, like a bratty toddler that didn't get his cookie before dinner.

And the best part, Matthews signs a 5 yr deal, making him a UFA at 26 yrs old, with the obvious intention of going home, right in his prime. Karma is beautiful. They're paying 3 forwards over 11M each, and they point and laugh at us for signing our #1 dman for 9? lmao

Darnell Nurse finished 7th in Norris trophy voting, and for good reason:
-4th in the NHL for average TOI at 25:38
-1st in even strength goals by defenseman at 15
-despite being rarely used on the powerplay with only 7 pp pts, he still finished 12th in pts amongst defenseman with 36
-5th in +/- @ +27
-top 30 in both hits and blocked shots

And he's still only 26 yrs old, taking leaps every season
He's going to be worth every dollar of his well deserved career deal, and I'm escatic our #1 defenseman is ours for the next 9 years. After getting Larsson'd and Bear happy to be leaving, this was the most necessary priority for Holland, and he locked up our cornerstone defenseman. I'm a huge fan the work Holland has put in this summer, and Oiler fans are going to change their minds real quick about this off season come game time

Some context is needed though.......right?

Darnell Nurse finished 7th in Norris trophy voting, and for good reason:
-4th in the NHL for average TOI at 25:38

• This is because of two reasons. One, he has to play a lot of minutes because the rest if the D was pretty sad. Two, he plays most of his time wit McDrai. THose two play a stupid amount of time on ice, so he's bound to rack up the minutes.

-1st in even strength goals by defenseman at 15

• Yeah, playing over 75% of his time with the best player in the world and a Top 5 winger. Not exactly a shock, right?

-despite being rarely used on the powerplay with only 7 pp pts, he still finished 12th in pts amongst defenseman with 36

• See above two points. Along with the fact that he can't play PP minutes because he has to play on the PK because the rest of the D sorta sucked last year.

-5th in +/- @ +27

• The McDrai effect.....

-top 30 in both hits and blocked shots

• Yup, he's on the ice a shit ton and he's big. He's going to get his hits in.

And he's still only 26 yrs old, taking leaps every season

• Feels like a lot of grasping at straws here. You guys used to make fun of Leaf fans when they cam up with a bunch random stats, loose puck retrievals stands out. This has that feel to it.

He has some pretty bad defensive stats, certainly not deserving of the dollars he just got. But yes, he is young, and he will continue to play most of his minutes with McDrai in the offensive zone, so he'll continue to get his points. It's his defensive game he needs to focus on. A lot.

 

[Cup or Bust]

Reminds me of when McDavid was negotiating an extension. Everyone (mainly leafs fans and media) was bombarding him to sign min term, 4 years. If he did, he'd be a UFA next summer, at 25 yrs old. Leafs fans thought it was a certainty McDavid wanted out of Edmonton and that he was going to sign a short term deal. Not even 2 weeks of negotiating, McDavid signs maximum term of 8 years, making him an Oiler all the way until 2026. Leafs fans/media: "12.5!! What? McGreedy! He'll never win a cup! Matthews will be so much better than him anyway!". They turned on him real quick, like a bratty toddler that didn't get his cookie before dinner.

And the best part, Matthews signs a 5 yr deal, making him a UFA at 26 yrs old, with the obvious intention of going home, right in his prime. Karma is beautiful. They're paying 3 forwards over 11M each, and they point and laugh at us for signing our #1 dman for 9? lmao

Darnell Nurse finished 7th in Norris trophy voting, and for good reason:
-4th in the NHL for average TOI at 25:38
-1st in even strength goals by defenseman at 15
-despite being rarely used on the powerplay with only 7 pp pts, he still finished 12th in pts amongst defenseman with 36
-5th in +/- @ +27
-top 30 in both hits and blocked shots
And he's still only 26 yrs old, taking leaps every season

He's going to be worth every dollar of his well deserved career deal, and I'm escatic our #1 defenseman is ours for the next 9 years. After getting Larsson'd and Bear happy to be leaving, this was the most necessary priority for Holland, and he locked up our cornerstone defenseman. I'm a huge fan the work Holland has put in this summer, and Oiler fans are going to change their minds real quick about this off season come game time

These people's so called defensive stats must be useless garbage because I watched every game Nurse played last season and he played very well defensively and I have criticized his consistency in that area for his whole career. If their stats say otherwise it is likely based on the other guys he was on the ice with not being as good defensively as he was. If anyone that watched Nurse all last season claims he was anything but good defensively it means they have no idea what they are talking about.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Some context is needed though.......right?

Darnell Nurse finished 7th in Norris trophy voting, and for good reason:
-4th in the NHL for average TOI at 25:38

• This is because of two reasons. One, he has to play a lot of minutes because the rest if the D was pretty sad. Two, he plays most of his time wit McDrai. THose two play a stupid amount of time on ice, so he's bound to rack up the minutes.
• If he wasn't an elite defenseman he wouldn't be able to handle those minutes regardless of who he is playing with.

-1st in even strength goals by defenseman at 15

• Yeah, playing over 75% of his time with the best player in the world and a Top 5 winger. Not exactly a shock, right?
• It's still impressive. Just because a player is on the ice, doesn't mean he is a good finisher. Nurse is a good finisher. That's rare from the blueline. Giving all the credit to linemates is a cop out. Or does Makar's accomplishment's mean nothing because he plays with McKinnon and Rantanen a lot?

-despite being rarely used on the powerplay with only 7 pp pts, he still finished 12th in pts amongst defenseman with 36

• See above two points. Along with the fact that he can't play PP minutes because he has to play on the PK because the rest of the D sorta sucked last year.
• Is this supposed to be a negative? He plays the PK very well. He plays the PP well when he does it but doesn't because we have others to do it.

-5th in +/- @ +27

• The McDrai effect.....
• +/- is fairly useless so I don't care much about his +/-, but I don't see how anyone with a + can really be criticized for it either.

-top 30 in both hits and blocked shots

• Yup, he's on the ice a shit ton and he's big. He's going to get his hits in.
• Lots of big guys don't hit (cough, Hamilton). Hitting and blocking shots isn't about size. What a peculiar statement.

And he's still only 26 yrs old, taking leaps every season

• Feels like a lot of grasping at straws here. You guys used to make fun of Leaf fans when they cam up with a bunch random stats, loose puck retrievals stands out. This has that feel to it.
• These stats are all fairly random and representative of how good a player is. It isn't some weird obscure stat like puck retrievals.

He has some pretty bad defensive stats, certainly not deserving of the dollars he just got. But yes, he is young, and he will continue to play most of his minutes with McDrai in the offensive zone, so he'll continue to get his points. It's his defensive game he needs to focus on. A lot.

Defensive stats are garbage. There are a billion different defensive metrics that show all sorts of things. You can find defensive stats that show a player is both good and bad. There have been countless cases that have shown bad defensive players to be good defensively, and the opposite as well. The fact is that Darnell Nurse emerged as an elite defenseman last year. Literally the only logical criticism I can see with this contract when given the comparables signed this summer, is wondering if he can repeat last season, as it was his first year hitting that level. All of the "defensive stats show he sucks" posts show why experts are so selective in which analytics they use. You can't judge defensive play with stats most of the time.

 

[HugginThePost]

Defensive stats are garbage. There are a billion different defensive metrics that show all sorts of things. You can find defensive stats that show a player is both good and bad. There have been countless cases that have shown bad defensive players to be good defensively, and the opposite as well. The fact is that Darnell Nurse emerged as an elite defenseman last year. Literally the only logical criticism I can see with this contract when given the comparables signed this summer, is wondering if he can repeat last season, as it was his first year hitting that level. All of the "defensive stats show he sucks" posts show why experts are so selective in which analytics they use. You can't judge defensive play with stats most of the time.

I look at Pelech's D stats, they say he is very, very, good defensively. Turns out he is very good defensively. Go figure?

They also say he sucks offensively. Turns out he sucks offensively. Go figure?

It's getting really hard to keep up with which stats are good and which are not??

Seem like if they fit your agenda, they're great. If they don't, they suck.

A story as old as time.........

 

[ManofSteel55]

I look at Pelech's D stats, they say he is very, very, good defensively. Turns out he is very good defensively. Go figure?

They also say he sucks offensively. Turns out he sucks offensively. Go figure?

It's getting really hard to keep up with which stats are good and which are not??

Seem like if they fit your agenda, they're great. If they don't, they suck.

A story as old as time.........

This is a true statement. Not in the way you mean it to be, but it is true, because most people don't understand most advanced stats. They think that just because it says something in a chart, that is the be all and end all. They don't realize that the numbers in the charts are only the entry point of the analysis, not the concluding point. That's where the flaw is. There are plenty of times when bad analytics don't point to a bad player, but a bad system, or bad linemates, or no depth on the team, or bad situational play. The biggest impacts a defenseman can have on the game aren't going to be reflected in any charts anyway.

As per Pelech's stats, you don't need stats to tell you Pelech is good defensively. You can see that by watching him, if you know what you are watching for.

 

[HugginThePost]

This is a true statement. Not in the way you mean it to be, but it is true, because most people don't understand most advanced stats. They think that just because it says something in a chart, that is the be all and end all. They don't realize that the numbers in the charts are only the entry point of the analysis, not the concluding point. That's where the flaw is. There are plenty of times when bad analytics don't point to a bad player, but a bad system, or bad linemates, or no depth on the team, or bad situational play. The biggest impacts a defenseman can have on the game aren't going to be reflected in any charts anyway.

As per Pelech's stats, you don't need stats to tell you Pelech is good defensively. You can see that by watching him, if you know what you are watching for.

And yet the stats, that you claim suck, stand up. Weird, right?

The stat's say Nurse is amazing offensively, and they're not wrong. When he plays with McDrai, he is amazing offensively. Mainly because when they are on the ice it's in the offensive zone, where his defending is limited to keeping the puck in the O zone and feeding McDrai.

When McDrai are not on the ice, and he finds himself in the D Zone, he is prone to making bad decisions and has limited effect on keeping forwards out of scoring areas.

That's what the eye test tells me.

I believe if you look at his stats with, and without, McDrai, it paints a pretty polarizing picture.

I think he is a good D man, I do. But I keep seeing the term "elite" being thrown around. He is not, and has never been, elite.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

These people's so called defensive stats must be useless garbage because I watched every game Nurse played last season and he played very well defensively and I have criticized his consistency in that area for his whole career. If their stats say otherwise it is likely based on the other guys he was on the ice with not being as good defensively as he was. If anyone that watched Nurse all last season claims he was anything but good defensively it means they have no idea what they are talking about.

Ah, the old his defensive stats may suck but ‘I watched every game’ argument.
Hard to refute that one.

 

[ManofSteel55]

And yet the stats, that you claim suck, stand up. Weird, right?

The stat's say Nurse is amazing offensively, and they're not wrong. When he plays with McDrai, he is amazing offensively. Mainly because when they are on the ice it's in the offensive zone, where his defending is limited to keeping the puck in the O zone and feeding McDrai.

When McDrai are not on the ice, and he finds himself in the D Zone, he is prone to making bad decisions and has limited effect on keeping forwards out of scoring areas.

That's what the eye test tells me.

I believe if you look at his stats with, and without, McDrai, it paints a pretty polarizing picture.

I think he is a good D man, I do. But I keep seeing the term "elite" being thrown around. He is not, and has never been, elite.

Offensive stats are pretty easy to analyze. Defensive stats are a lot more difficult. There is no stat to show "bad decisions", you need to watch to see that. That's the entire point I am making here.

Basically everything you have stated here isn't some grand conclusion that shows Nurse's worth as a defensive player. It is reflects that he (like any other player in the world) performed better when on the ice with Draisaitl/McDavid/Pulujarvi or ???/McDavid/Pulujarvi and Nuge/Drai/Yamamoto than he did with any combination of Tyler Ennis, Gaetan Haas, Zack Kassian, Alex Chiasson, Jujhar Khaira, James Neal, Dominick Kahun, and Josh Archibald. A majority of those guys won't be in the NHL this season at all. So basically, if Nurse can't put up good defensive stats when playing with sub-NHL players, he sucks? Good to know. And I guess its a good thing that he will continue to spend most of his time playing with McDavid.

His offensive stats last year were pretty elite. I don't think anyone has suggested that he is elite defensively. He is certainly improved on what he used to be, but if he had the offensive he displayed last year with "elite" defensive play, he would be getting paid "elite" money - which is more in line with what Doughty and Karlsson are being paid, instead of in line with what Hamilton, and Werenski were just paid.

 

[Cup or Bust]

Ah, the old his defensive stats may suck but ‘I watched every game’ argument.
Hard to refute that one.

I am not arguing. I know he played well defensively. So I do not care what people think based on some stats. It doesn't mean I think his contract is ideal though. I would have liked to see him sustain that play for a longer period of time.

 

[McVespa99]

Remember the good ol days when you used to have to win something to get the big contracts

I do remember teams like Chicago paying players for what they DID as opposed to paying them for what the team feels their value will be going forward....

 

[JAK]

So basically, if Nurse can't put up good defensive stats when playing with sub-NHL players, he sucks?

If Nurse cannot carry sub NHL players to decent defensive stats, he isn't worth the contract he just signed.

 

[ManofSteel55]

If Nurse cannot carry sub NHL players to decent defensive stats, he isn't worth the contract he just signed.

So...he has to single handedly ensure that 4 AHL level players on the ice are all playing above their heads, or cover the gap? Is that what you are saying? There isn't a defenseman that has played in my lifetime who has consistently done that.

 

[JAK]

So...he has to single handedly ensure that 4 AHL level players on the ice are all playing above their heads, or cover the gap? Is that what you are saying? There isn't a defenseman that has played in my lifetime who has consistently done that.

No, but a player with that significant cap hit should be able to dictate what happens on the ice when he is on the ice, most of the time.

 

[Hobnobs]

No, but a player with that significant cap hit should be able to dictate what happens on the ice when he is on the ice, most of the time.

I think you are confusing hockey with basketball.

 

[JAK]

I think you are confusing hockey with basketball.

No, NBA has a high salary cap with millions of ways to go over, and star players usually play most of a game.

Nurse at best can play HALF a game, but his cap hit is just too high for team to be able to build with him

 

[ManofSteel55]

No, but a player with that significant cap hit should be able to dictate what happens on the ice when he is on the ice, most of the time.

Nurse does affect what happens when he is on the ice. But you're asking a pro to make AHL players into NHL players just by being on the ice with them. And not just one AHL'er, but 3 or 4 on the ice at the same time. I love how everyone blasts the Oilers depth last year (rightfully so) until it comes time to recognize that those bad depth players held back the good players when they were on the ice together.

 

[HugginThePost]

So...he has to single handedly ensure that 4 AHL level players on the ice are all playing above their heads, or cover the gap? Is that what you are saying? There isn't a defenseman that has played in my lifetime who has consistently done that.

I mean, he's one of the top paid D Men in the league, so yes, he should make those around him better, a lot better.

I also love the hyperbole......4 AHL PLAYERS!! Give me a break.

The truth is this, when he's on the ice with McDrai and the ice is heavily slanted to the O Zone, he looks real good.

As soon as those two step off the ice, he looks a lot worse.

 

[billybudd]

Agreed. Waaaayyyy to much money.

I like this player a lot, but I did a double take at this headline. The AAV is at least 2 million too high and the term is probably 3 years too long. 8 year contract is for players who are as consistent as death and taxes. Much as there is to like about Nurse, that's not him.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I mean, he's one of the top paid D Men in the league, so yes, he should make those around him better, a lot better.

I also love the hyperbole......4 AHL PLAYERS!! Give me a break.

The truth is this, when he's on the ice with McDrai and the ice is heavily slanted to the O Zone, he looks real good.

As soon as those two step off the ice, he looks a lot worse.

As soon as the best players on any team steps off the ice the ice is bound to slant back the other way. Everyone looks worse when McKinnon and Rantanen jump off the ice. Or Matthews and Marner, or even Panarin-Zibanejad. The difference is, the Oilers depth players lost them games, where most teams' depth players actually contributed.

4 AHL players, yes. If McDavid's line and Draisaitl's line were not on the ice, that means he was playing with 2-4 AHL caliber players at a time. Usually an entire line of forwards, and sometimes a defenseman if he was on the ice with Bear, who struggled mightily last year.

Tell me, which of the following players is any more than an AHL player right now? Gaetan Haas. James Neal. Alex Chaisson. That was a line we had out there. 3 AHL caliber forwards. How about Tyler Ennis, Jujhar Khaira and Dominik Kahun? How about Kyle Turris? He lost his job half way through the year because he was so bad. Only one of those guys has an NHL job right now, and he's a PK specialist only - Khaira. Turris will be on the waiver wire before training camp is over. All AHL level players. So don't tell me its hyperbole to suggest that when the top 2 lines were off the ice, it was mostly AHL level forwards on it. The only ones in our bottom six last year who actually played like NHL'ers were Josh Archibald, and Ryan McLeod, who was called up after tearing up the AHL, but still didn't produce much, he just didn't get destroyed.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Ah, the old his defensive stats may suck but ‘I watched every game’ argument.
Hard to refute that one.

The last bastion of charlatans.

 

[JAK]

So, if both top end stars on the Oilers are not on the ice, then Nurse is playing with AHLers.

That seems to be a roster construction and cap management issue. ..oh wait, Nurse has a huge contract and it's totally unrelated