Toronto definitely goes into this series as a favourite, but mostly because of narrative. They shouldn't be taking Florida lightly, and I'm surprised at how many people are saying they now have an "easy path" to the finals (same with the Oilers).
The Panthers are not just some scrappy wildcard team. They brought back 13 players from last year's President's trophy roster, upgraded from Huberdeau to Tkachuk, and have a Cup-winning coach behind the bench. Yeah, they had some struggles in the regular season, but haven't we learned from history? You just have to get hot at the right time.
I give tons of credit to the Leafs for beating the Lightning, because the result is all that matters, but that series was a coin flip. It wasn't domination by any stretch. 3OT games and Tampa led for more than they trailed. Plus, Cernak was out, Hedman/Point were playing at 70%, and the Bolts came into the playoffs playing shit hockey for the last 1.5 months of the season.
The Panthers just beat a much better team, came into the playoffs on a heater, and IMO, matchup better with the Leafs than this version of the Bolts did. They deserve much more respect than they're getting.
Panthers were 24-13-4 in the last 41 regular season games. Leafs were 25-12-4. This is an even matchup. I expect it to go 6 or 7, and wouldn't at all be surprised if Florida took it.