Value of: Duchene to Habs

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

LA? You're undermining Quick

No, I'm really not. Quick is proof that you don't need the gaudy regular season numbers that Price is known for in order to be a successful playoff goalie.

And, his career playoff numbers aren't that much different than Crawford's. They are both above average goalies in the regular season who step up when it really matters.

 

[strictlyrandy]

Value wise it's probably an overpayment from Montreal.

Realisticly this is what it would take though. Colorado lacks top 6 talent and have no reason to trade away their leading scorer 4 of the last 5 seasons (including this season) who can play all 3 forwards positions for a clear downgrade (Galchy) unless there is another substantial piece included.

Inb4 Legend tells you that Avs would have to add to Duchene for Sergachev.

 

[mikeyp24]

^more like forget Sergachev but Duchene+ for Petry haha

What has Duchene looked like this year so far? I know some of us CBJ fans were kinda hoping to trade the 3rd last year and make a deal for him but I haven't caught any Avs games this year because of the Indians playoff run and cbj games taking up all my sports time. Has he started hot or slow?

 

[strictlyrandy]

^more like forget Sergachev but Duchene+ for Petry haha

What has Duchene looked like this year so far? I know some of us CBJ fans were kinda hoping to trade the 3rd last year and make a deal for him but I haven't caught any Avs games this year because of the Indians playoff run and cbj games taking up all my sports time. Has he started hot or slow?

Duchene has been pretty much nothing short of spectacular this year imo. 7 points in 7 games. 5 of which are goals. Loving the wau this team has been performing so far. We're all too busy freaking out (some are, not all) that MacKinnon only has 1 goal so far despite having 6 points in 7 games (2 of which the Avs got shutout). It's pretty silly. Oh well, fans gotta whine about something I suppose.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

^more like forget Sergachev but Duchene+ for Petry haha

What has Duchene looked like this year so far? I know some of us CBJ fans were kinda hoping to trade the 3rd last year and make a deal for him but I haven't caught any Avs games this year because of the Indians playoff run and cbj games taking up all my sports time. Has he started hot or slow?

7 pts ( 5g, 2a) in 7 games. Just under a 60% FO winning percentage. He's been pretty good, and looks like he is fitting well into Bednar's system.

 

[Legend123]

Inb4 Legend tells you that Avs would have to add to Duchene for Sergachev.

So because I value players like Weber, Price over Duchene would suggest that?? ahahah You know the rest of NHL gms would agree with me? right?
As for Sergechev, the habs would have to add alot to him to acquire Duchene, so it wouldnt be worth it at all, esp considering his potential and our need for a perfect Weber partner.

 

[strictlyrandy]

So because I value players like Weber, Price over Duchene would suggest that?? ahahah You know the rest of NHL gms would agree with me? right?
As for Sergechev, the habs would have to add alot to him to acquire Duchene, so it wouldnt be worth it at all, esp considering his potential and our need for a perfect Weber partner.

You miss the point again and yet another joke flies over your head higher than a 767 does over the Pacific Ocean.

The point is that the Avs don't need guys like Price, Weber, Sergachev, Galchenyuk, etc. They need Matt Duchene. It doesn't matter about value in a vacuum. The Avs have absolutely zero reason to trade Duchene. If the Habs wanted to acquire him, he'd cost whatever Sakic demands. Yet one more time... the Avs do not want or need to trade Matt Duchene. There isn't a trade that involves Montreal that makes sense for the Avs when it comes to trading away Matt Duchene.

This thread wasn't started by an Avalanche fan. Stop acting as if it were.

 

[AHShadow]

montreal adds significantly to the first deal. Duchene and Patches are in the same ballpark value wise but then you dump a negative asset in DD and take back a young asset the avs are still high on? bealuie would probably make up the difference.

I dont see the avs making a move for a pending UFA, otherwise the 2nd deal wouldnt be so bad

I'm actually not quite familiar with Grigorenko, I was just trying to find a decent player to replace Patches and to give the Avs a C to replace Duchene. I agree that the second option would probably be better for the Avs, but still don't see why they would trade Duchene.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

So because I value players like Weber, Price over Duchene would suggest that?? ahahah You know the rest of NHL gms would agree with me? right?
As for Sergechev, the habs would have to add alot to him to acquire Duchene, so it wouldnt be worth it at all, esp considering his potential and our need for a perfect Weber partner.

Price? Sure, he's definitely worth more then Duchene no question.



But Weber? I have a hard time believing most GM's would prefer Weber to Duchene right now.



Weber is significantly older. Signed to a worse contract for much longer. Had already shown signs of slowing down and no longer being as effective a player as he once was(And no, a small 9 game stint on a new team isn't going to change the minds of scouts/GM's regarding this).

Any team acquiring Weber would be getting realistically probably 2-3 more years of #1/2 D level of play, and then another year or two where he can still be effective as a Top 4D.

At a 7.5M cap hit, he's very soon reaching a point of being overpaid.

Duchene on the other hand is still only 25, has at least another 6-7 years of being a quality #1C in the league. He's signed to a much better contract right now that still has 3 years left on it.

I think most teams would prefer the younger and more cost controlled #1C in Duchene over the older #1D in Weber.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So because I value players like Weber, Price over Duchene would suggest that?? ahahah You know the rest of NHL gms would agree with me? right?
As for Sergechev, the habs would have to add alot to him to acquire Duchene, so it wouldnt be worth it at all, esp considering his potential and our need for a perfect Weber partner.

And, in a vacuum, I think most people would agree that Weber and Price are worth more than Duchene (at least right now). However, trades don't happen in vacuums, and here in reality, no competent GM is going to trade Duchene for Weber or Price, given the Avs roster. Those trades create another big hole in the Avs top 6 in order to moderately upgrade a position where the Avs already have an above average player.

Look at it this way - is Price better than Varly? Yes. Is Price + whoever the Avs find/get to replace Duchene better than Varly + Duchene? I highly doubt that. Replace Price with Weber and Varly with EJ, and the point still stands. And that's completely ignoring the fact that Price is likely going to be looking for a $10+M paycheck when his current contract is over after next season, and Weber is under contract for $7.85M until he's 40 years old.

 

[AvsGuy]

But Weber? I have a hard time believing most GM's would prefer Weber to Duchene right now.

At this exact moment, tons of GMs would. Weber is playing out of his mind and over his head - he's on pace for like 90 points and +150.

But for all the other reasons you mentioned, no I wouldn't trade Duchene for Weber.

My big question is, with Jost coming up, do we re-sign Duchene in 3 years? Does he take a discount to stay on his favorite team? Because with his numbers coming in at around 60 points/season, I can't really justify a pay increase.

 

[Legend123]

Price? Sure, he's definitely worth more then Duchene no question.



But Weber? I have a hard time believing most GM's would prefer Weber to Duchene right now.



Weber is significantly older. Signed to a worse contract for much longer. Had already shown signs of slowing down and no longer being as effective a player as he once was(And no, a small 9 game stint on a new team isn't going to change the minds of scouts/GM's regarding this).

Any team acquiring Weber would be getting realistically probably 2-3 more years of #1/2 D level of play, and then another year or two where he can still be effective as a Top 4D.

At a 7.5M cap hit, he's very soon reaching a point of being overpaid.

Duchene on the other hand is still only 25, has at least another 6-7 years of being a quality #1C in the league. He's signed to a much better contract right now that still has 3 years left on it.

I think most teams would prefer the younger and more cost controlled #1C in Duchene over the older #1D in Weber.

Its obvious you dont much about Weber. For one, he has shown zero signs of slowing down.
You come up with the most random number and say he only has two to three years of #1/2 D. Thats so ridiculous. WIth his style of play and his body, he prob has another 5 years in him but no you know more.
A cap hit of 7.5M for a true #1D is nothing compared to what players now are making. Yandle, Goligoski are making something around 6M$, Trouba wants around that as well. You cant tell me NHL GMs would not add 1.5M to get a significantly better player.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

At this exact moment, tons of GMs would. Weber is playing out of his mind and over his head - he's on pace for like 90 points and +150.

But for all the other reasons you mentioned, no I wouldn't trade Duchene for Weber.

My big question is, with Jost coming up, do we re-sign Duchene in 3 years? Does he take a discount to stay on his favorite team? Because with his numbers coming in at around 60 points/season, I can't really justify a pay increase.

Considering Duchene has shown he can play either wing, why wouldn't we re-sign him? And, 3 years is a long time. Is is possible that with Bednar's system, good linemates, and a competent defensive core, Duchene could return to being a PPG player?

 

[strictlyrandy]

Its obvious you dont much about Weber. For one, he has shown zero signs of slowing down.
You come up with the most random number and say he only has two to three years of #1/2 D. Thats so ridiculous. WIth his style of play and his body, he prob has another 5 years in him but no you know more.
A cap hit of 7.5M for a true #1D is nothing compared to what players now are making. Yandle, Goligoski are making something around 6M$, Trouba wants around that as well. You cant tell me NHL GMs would not add 1.5M to get a significantly better player.

NHL gms wouldn't trade their top offensive player that is 25 years old for a 31 year old player that doesn't fill a position of need and also costs more.

If that were true, Dallas who actually needs defense (Colorado doesn't) would have traded Seguin for Weber.

You still fail to see this from the Avs point of view.

Avs needs: top 6 players. Duchene, Landeskog, and MacKinnon. That's it for top 6 quality on the Avs.

Avs don't need defense or goalies at the cost of one of their three top 6 caliber players. The Avs defense does not need Weber. They got what they needed. A competent coach.

I love that you're clinging to Weber can't possibly be regressing due to an insanely small sample size where he's playing an incredibly unsustainable game. Look at when large physical defenseman decline. Weber does not have 5 years left of this kind of play. He has roughly 2 to 3 years before he regresses noticeably.

 

[strictlyrandy]

At this exact moment, tons of GMs would. Weber is playing out of his mind and over his head - he's on pace for like 90 points and +150.

But for all the other reasons you mentioned, no I wouldn't trade Duchene for Weber.

My big question is, with Jost coming up, do we re-sign Duchene in 3 years? Does he take a discount to stay on his favorite team? Because with his numbers coming in at around 60 points/season, I can't really justify a pay increase.

Weber is playing an unsustainable game. He won't keep this up. Judging a player based off of a 9 game sample size is a fool's errand. Has Weber been good? Undoubtedly. However at 31, Shea Weber isn't going to keep this up for 82 games. A 31 year old Weber isn't going to have a better offensive year than what Erik Karlsson (a muuuch better defenseman) had last season. We'll see at game 40 what Weber has done up to that point to get a better gauge on his season. Doing it at game 9 is just silly. It's almost as silly as proclaiming by game 9 that your team is a Cup favorite...something Montreal fans especially know to be silly.

 

[Legend123]

Weber is playing an unsustainable game. He won't keep this up. Judging a player based off of a 9 game sample size is a fool's errand. Has Weber been good? Undoubtedly. However at 31, Shea Weber isn't going to keep this up for 82 games. A 31 year old Weber isn't going to have a better offensive year than what Erik Karlsson (a muuuch better defenseman) had last season. We'll see at game 40 what Weber has done up to that point to get a better gauge on his season. Doing it at game 9 is just silly. It's almost as silly as proclaiming by game 9 that your team is a Cup favorite...something Montreal fans especially know to be silly.

answering with another no knowledge answer, great!
Plz tell me what part of his game is unsustainable. His entire career hes been a premium top pairing shutdown D. A trade to MTL magically makes him lose that ability? Or that he is a ppg?? His entire career hes been a 50 to 60 point player, more or less. Do you expect him to not put up 50 points?? Cuz he was traded to mtl??
You sputter even more BS with claims like EK is 'muuuuch' better. No hes not much better. Better offensively? Sure. Better defensively?? Hell no. But I guess ur just one of those guys that look at points and judge whos better.

Btw, cuz i know u dont know, Weber prob plays the most efficient 25-30 minutes of hockey in the entire NHL. Its not taxing at all for him. He doesnt get hit, he doesnt skate around like Subban. He's the perfect #1D.
I was so pissed at the trade, when it happened, but I can say i was wrong. Weber is a lot better than Subban. For how long will that stay?? Idk. But thing is certain, as a big time fan of Subban, I know alot more than you to judge who's better and who's not.

 

[strictlyrandy]

answering with another no knowledge answer, great!
Plz tell me what part of his game is unsustainable. His entire career hes been a premium top pairing shutdown D. A trade to MTL magically makes him lose that ability? Or that he is a ppg?? His entire career hes been a 50 to 60 point player, more or less. Do you expect him to not put up 50 points?? Cuz he was traded to mtl??
You sputter even more BS with claims like EK is 'muuuuch' better. No hes not much better. Better offensively? Sure. Better defensively?? Hell no. But I guess ur just one of those guys that look at points and judge whos better.

Btw, cuz i know u dont know, Weber prob plays the most efficient 25-30 minutes of hockey in the entire NHL. Its not taxing at all for him. He doesnt get hit, he doesnt skate around like Subban. He's the perfect #1D.
I was so pissed at the trade, when it happened, but I can say i was wrong. Weber is a lot better than Subban. For how long will that stay?? Idk. But thing is certain, as a big time fan of Subban, I know alot more than you to judge who's better and who's not.

EK is better defensively.... his numbers (not his offensive totals) back that up. EK clears his own zone and defends it. He didn't win the Norris twice due to his point totals. If that were true he would have won it a 3rd time (even though he truly was better than Doughty).

Also Weber has not been a 50-60 point player his entire career. He has only hit the 50 point mark 3 times (almost 4 with a 49 point year) during his career. His best point total was 56. Also, I'm going to tell you because you probably do not know, Shea Weber has played 10 seasons in the NHL. 3 times in 10 years is not an "entire career". Right now his shooting percentage is so far above his career avg that it’s clearly an outlier of a season..also it's only 9 games...he literally cannot keep this up. At 31 Shea Weber is not going to have a ppg career year. I think he still hits 45 to 50 points though.

Also.. you're insinuating that 50 to 60 points is practically a ppg season...it's not.

Before talking about who Shea Weber is as a player, you might want to know more about him.

He's absolutely still a top pairing defenseman. However, he's not the defensive stalwart he once was. He's in his prime, but his peak is long gone.

I get that you've got your crush on Weber, but it's pretty clear you don't know much about him outside of a 9 game sample size.

By the way, when I say he's going to regress in 2 to 3 years, I don't mean he's going to fall off a cliff, it means I think he'll no longer be effective as a top pairing guy. I think he'll have a couple good seasons in the top 4 after that as well.

I don't know if you know, but the last 3 years Weber has been pretty underwhelming defensively. If he turns it all around this year, good for him. My money is on that he won't though.

Again, maybe you should know more about a player before claiming someone else doesn't. It's clear that you don't know much about Shea Weber.

Also...claiming that Shea Weber doesn't get hit...yeah you've not seen much of him.

 

[Legend123]

EK is better defensively.... his numbers (not his offensive totals) back that up. EK clears his own zone and defends it. He didn't win the Norris twice due to his point totals. If that were true he would have won it a 3rd time (even though he truly was better than Doughty).

Also Weber has not been a 50-60 point player his entire career. He has only hit the 50 point mark 3 times (almost 4 with a 49 point year) during his career. His best point total was 56. Also, I'm going to tell you because you probably do not know, Shea Weber has played 10 seasons in the NHL. 3 times in 10 years is not an "entire career". Right now his shooting percentage is so far above his career avg that it’s clearly an outlier of a season..also it's only 9 games...he literally cannot keep this up. At 31 Shea Weber is not going to have a ppg career year. I think he still hits 45 to 50 points though.

Also.. you're insinuating that 50 to 60 points is practically a ppg season...it's not.

Before talking about who Shea Weber is as a player, you might want to know more about him.

He's absolutely still a top pairing defenseman. However, he's not the defensive stalwart he once was. He's in his prime, but his peak is long gone.

I get that you've got your crush on Weber, but it's pretty clear you don't know much about him outside of a 9 game sample size.

By the way, when I say he's going to regress in 2 to 3 years, I don't mean he's going to fall off a cliff, it means I think he'll no longer be effective as a top pairing guy. I think he'll have a couple good seasons in the top 4 after that as well.

I don't know if you know, but the last 3 years Weber has been pretty underwhelming defensively. If he turns it all around this year, good for him. My money is on that he won't though.

Again, maybe you should know more about a player before claiming someone else doesn't. It's clear that you don't know much about Shea Weber.

he is a 50-60 point defender. He is possibly the best shut down defender (only Doughty and Hedman have a say). He is miles ahead defensively over EK. Nice try tho

 

[AvsGuy]

At this exact moment, tons of GMs would. Weber is playing out of his mind and over his head - he's on pace for like 90 points and +150.

Weber is playing an unsustainable game. He won't keep this up. Judging a player based off of a 9 game sample size is a fool's errand. Has Weber been good? Undoubtedly. However at 31, Shea Weber isn't going to keep this up for 82 games. A 31 year old Weber isn't going to have a better offensive year than what Erik Karlsson (a muuuch better defenseman) had last season. We'll see at game 40 what Weber has done up to that point to get a better gauge on his season. Doing it at game 9 is just silly. It's almost as silly as proclaiming by game 9 that your team is a Cup favorite...something Montreal fans especially know to be silly.

Yeah. That's what playing over your head means.

 

[strictlyrandy]

he is a 50-60 point defender. He is possibly the best shut down defender (only Doughty and Hedman have a say). He is miles ahead defensively over EK. Nice try tho

You clearly have no proof (surprise, you never do). He's hit 50 points 3 times in 10 years... that does not make him an automatic 50 point guy.

He is not the best shut down defender in the league. He was in contention for it 3 years ago.

He's an effective top pairing defenseman that puts up good numbers sometimes.

Also...you claimed he doesn't get hit...I think you're talking about someone else entirely. Shea Weber gets hit.


Edit:

As far as the topic of Matt Duchene to Montreal, that's been shut down. This thread has been derailed and should be shut down as well.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

answering with another no knowledge answer, great!
Plz tell me what part of his game is unsustainable. His entire career hes been a premium top pairing shutdown D. A trade to MTL magically makes him lose that ability? Or that he is a ppg?? His entire career hes been a 50 to 60 point player, more or less. Do you expect him to not put up 50 points?? Cuz he was traded to mtl??
You sputter even more BS with claims like EK is 'muuuuch' better. No hes not much better. Better offensively? Sure. Better defensively?? Hell no. But I guess ur just one of those guys that look at points and judge whos better.

Btw, cuz i know u dont know, Weber prob plays the most efficient 25-30 minutes of hockey in the entire NHL. Its not taxing at all for him. He doesnt get hit, he doesnt skate around like Subban. He's the perfect #1D.
I was so pissed at the trade, when it happened, but I can say i was wrong. Weber is a lot better than Subban. For how long will that stay?? Idk. But thing is certain, as a big time fan of Subban, I know alot more than you to judge who's better and who's not.

So, you admit that you don't know how long Weber will continue to be better than Subban, but argue against his performance being unsustainable? Maybe he'll continue to be a premier 1D for the rest of this year. Maybe he'll still be that next year. What about when he's 34? 35? 39?

And, while you're trying to answer that, let me ask you a related question. How many 35 year old 1Ds are there in the NHL right now?

 

[strictlyrandy]

Yeah. That's what playing over your head means.

I completely missed that part of your post. Apologies. I was just making sure I wasn't confusing you for Legend when I replied initially.

 

[Legend123]

So, you admit that you don't know how long Weber will continue to be better than Subban, but argue against his performance being unsustainable? Maybe he'll continue to be a premier 1D for the rest of this year. Maybe he'll still be that next year. What about when he's 34? 35? 39?

And, while you're trying to answer that, let me ask you a related question. How many 35 year old 1Ds are there in the NHL right now?

lol u realize no one can answer that, yea?

 

[Skobel24]

Would you guys do something like

Patches + DD for Duchene + Grigorenko
or
Patches + Plek for Duchene + Grigorenko + Cap Dump? Or we retain 2 mil on Plek

Pretty bad for Colorado. If I'm the Av's, I'd want Galchenyuk+. If that's a no deal, so be it.

 

[strictlyrandy]

lol u realize no one can answer that, yea?

Actually it's pretty easy to answer the question he asked....