Value of: Duchene to Habs

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

lol u realize no one can answer that, yea?

The rhetorical parts about Weber's future, no I didn't expect you to make predictions. The question about how many 35 year old 1D there are in the NHL most definitely has an answer. The question of how you can admit Weber's play is eventually going to decline and yet staunchly refuse to agree that his level of play is unsustainable, should have an answer, but I've learned better than to expect people to admit they are wrong.

 

[Legend123]

The rhetorical parts about Weber's future, no I didn't expect you to make predictions. The question about how many 35 year old 1D there are in the NHL most definitely has an answer. The question of how you can admit Weber's play is eventually going to decline and yet staunchly refuse to agree that his level of play is unsustainable, should have an answer, but I've learned better than to expect people to admit they are wrong.

his level of playing throughout his career is def sustainable, whats so hard to understand?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Its obvious you dont much about Weber. For one, he has shown zero signs of slowing down.
You come up with the most random number and say he only has two to three years of #1/2 D. Thats so ridiculous. WIth his style of play and his body, he prob has another 5 years in him but no you know more.
A cap hit of 7.5M for a true #1D is nothing compared to what players now are making. Yandle, Goligoski are making something around 6M$, Trouba wants around that as well. You cant tell me NHL GMs would not add 1.5M to get a significantly better player.

I'm not the one coming up with completely random numbers.


Look at the historical data of defenders who play his style in the league. They typically dont last much longer then 33-34 years of age as top pairing Dmen in the league. The physical toll of the style and minutes they play wears down on the body a lot.


Saying he has 5+ more years in him when literally every trend would suggest other wise is the ridiculousness. But from you I honestly wouldn't expect any less.



And yes, Weber has most certainly shown signs of slowing down. That's the entire reason why Nashville was willing to trade him this summer.



He's had a hot start with Montreal. That should be expected from a player like him being traded to a new team. He's going to cool down significantly very soon, and then he will start his downward trend again.

Unless you actually expect him to maintain his 17.5% shooting percentage this year, more then double his career average. And you also expect his teams Shooting% when he's on the ice to remain as unrealistically high as it has been so far this year.



The funny thing is, after having seen you around these boards the last few months. I'm sure you'll respond saying something about how it's actually not a hot streak and that you fully expect him to maintain these ridiculous numbers and paces.


Cant wait for the comic relief coming in your next post.

 

[strictlyrandy]

his level of playing throughout his career is def sustainable, whats so hard to understand?

Ahahahahahahahahaha

 

[Legend123]

I'm not the one coming up with completely random numbers.


Look at the historical data of defenders who play his style in the league. They typically dont last much longer then 33-34 years of age as top pairing Dmen in the league. The physical toll of the style and minutes they play wears down on the body a lot.


Saying he has 5+ more years in him when literally every trend would suggest other wise is the ridiculousness. But from you I honestly wouldn't expect any less.



And yes, Weber has most certainly shown signs of slowing down. That's the entire reason why Nashville was willing to trade him this summer.



He's had a hot start with Montreal. That should be expected from a player like him being traded to a new team. He's going to cool down significantly very soon, and then he will start his downward trend again.

Unless you actually expect him to maintain his 17.5% shooting percentage this year, more then double his career average. And you also expect his teams Shooting% when he's on the ice to remain as unrealistically high as it has been so far this year.



The funny thing is, after having seen you around these boards the last few months. I'm sure you'll respond saying something about how it's actually not a hot streak and that you fully expect him to maintain these ridiculous numbers and paces.


Cant wait for the comic relief coming in your next post.

Weber hot start -> avs fans -> expected
On a tear in the east -> Showed signs of slowing down -> Weber is worth very little to Avs

 

[Legend123]

Ahahahahahahahahaha

feels like im arguing over a stat geek whos telling a eye-watcher whats true and whats wrong lmao. Watch him play plz, you know nothing on Weber and the Habs. But keep yapping away how he will slow down massively due to how old he is. He's only 31 ffs. Look at Gonchar and Markov, both lesser players, who have had amazing age 31-37 seasons.

 

[strictlyrandy]

feels like im arguing over a stat geek lol. Watch him play plz, you know nothing on Weber and the Habs. But keep yapping away how he will slow down massively due to how old he is. He's only 31 ffs. Look at Gonchar and Markov, both lesser players, who have had amazing age 31-37 seasons.

I've watched Weber play a lot more than you have.

I'm laughing because you still don't get the point.

Father time is undefeated. Weber HAS been declining. He literally can't keep what he's doing right now up. It is unsustainable. He's got a few good years left absolutely, but he is not a Markov. Weber plays a style of game that takes a heavy toll on his body. It's proven time and time again that players like Weber do not last into their mid 30s.

You try to insult me as a stats geek when you already tried to use them (very ineffectively) to argue in Weber's favor.

You don't have a leg to stand on and never have here.

 

[Uncle Gary]

But Weber? I have a hard time believing most GM's would prefer Weber to Duchene right now.

Most GM's would take Weber over Duchene. GM's, players and coaches all seem to love the guy and have a huge amount of respect for him. There are lots of teams that don't have a number 1 guy on defence (Avs included) that would quickly choose Weber. GM's don't care about age nearly as much as people believe on here.

 

[Uncle Gary]

I've watched Weber play a lot more than you have.

I'm laughing because you still don't get the point.

Father time is undefeated. Weber HAS been declining. He literally can't keep what he's doing right now up. It is unsustainable. He's got a few good years left absolutely, but he is not a Markov. Weber plays a style of game that takes a heavy toll on his body. It's proven time and time again that players like Weber do not last into their mid 30s.

You try to insult me as a stats geek when you already tried to use them (very ineffectively) to argue in Weber's favor.

You don't have a leg to stand on and never have here.

Would like to see a list of these supposed players of Weber's caliber that haven't lasted into their 30's.

 

[strictlyrandy]

Would like to see a list of these supposed players of Weber's caliber that haven't lasted into their 30's.

You mean large physical defenseman that play with an edge that play a lot of minutes?

Absolutely. I'd love to see that list. As I already said though, I think Weber lasts 2 maybe 3 more seasons as a top pairing guy (which would make him 33-34 at that time). I think he has 2 years after that as a top 4 caliber player still, which would place him at 35-36 years old before I think we see him fall off a cliff.

So yes, show me the list of big physical defensemen that play a lot of minutes that are still top 4 caliber after they turn 36 years old.

 

[Uncle Gary]

You mean large physical defenseman that play with an edge that play a lot of minutes?

Absolutely. I'd love to see that list. As I already said though, I think Weber lasts 2 maybe 3 more seasons as a top pairing guy (which would make him 33-34 at that time). I think he has 2 years after that as a top 4 caliber player still, which would place him at 35-36 years old before I think we see him fall off a cliff.

So yes, show me the list of big physical defensemen that play a lot of minutes that are still top 4 caliber after they turn 36 years old.

You misunderstood. I'm asking you to produce this list.

 

[KingTux]

Duchene is not a need for us and we don't have the assets Colorado would want for him. They have zero reason to trade since without him, their center depth is abysmal.

But for the sake of the thread it would probably be something like

Galchenyuk + for Duchene.

So does the Habs fans do this ? Nope
So does the Avs fans do this ? Nope, unless the + is an overpayment as in Juulsen, Big Mike or Scherbak.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

You misunderstood. I'm asking you to produce this list.

The list of all of the 35+ year old #1 defensemen currently in the league is below:

1:


Based on this list, I think it's prudent to believe that Weber may not be a #1D in 4 years, when he's 35. He may prove me wrong, but I wouldn't bet much on it happening.

So, the question is, at what age does he stop being a 1D and start being a 2D, or 2nd pairing guy?

 

[strictlyrandy]

You misunderstood. I'm asking you to produce this list.

I didn't claim there were any.....

In fact the original post you quoted me in I said that father time is undefeated (except for Jagr, he's a wizard).

I again made my point in the 2nd post you just responded to. I felt I was pretty clear in stating when I think Weber declines and that he's not going to be a top pairing defenseman in his mid 30s.

Unless you're implying that Weber is some super rare specimen that is going to outlast everyone and defy what history has proven to be true for large physical defensemen.