Dreger: Duchene Mega-thread: Habs, NSH inquired about Duchene. Asking price is ridiculous.

[NobleSix]

This is the same guy who broke the Radulov signing a good 5h before anyone else last july.

Excellent. I would love Duchene on the habs. I probably won't love the ask though.

 

[topnotch]

What you just said is the exact reason why the Aves don't acquire a guy like Sergachev for Duchene. Because why? Most teams in the leauge do not have a guy like this to give. If they do, they only have one or two and they are worth way to much! I've said this a hundred times but Duchene's play on the ice is not in question here... it's his pending UFA status at the end of the 2019 season. Those who feel this does not affect his value are just completely wrong IMO. But hey, truth be told in the end once the deal is announced (if Duchene is traded).

McCarron, Scherbak, Juulsen, and future 1st and 2nd round picks as well as Gallagher are grod trade chips for a guy like Duchene and the contract he has left. Some say Beaulieu but not sure if the Aves are interested. I feel the Aves want guys closer to MacKinnon's age and under team RFA control for many seasons!

I read an article a few weeks back about 1st round draft picks in the MLB. I know it's not the same as the NHL but this is what the article said. The 1st round pick the Blue Jays will get for letting EE go is worth somewhere around $30M when you factor team control for the guy they will acquire and develop over his MLB career while they have team control. My point? If you really look at the value of these potential elite level prospects over the first 3-5 years of their NHL career and what they provide on the ice, it's staggering! First of all they are hard to acquire. Once you acquire them, you don't throw them away in a "hope trade" where the chances of the Habs winning the cup is still not great.

Habs I'm trying to better understand your position on Duchene's impending UFA.

Would you consider Duchene having more value if he were signed to the following contract,

2017 - 6 million
2018 - 7.5 million (signed extension 45 mil over 6 years)
2019 - 7.5 million
2020 - 7.5 million
2021 - 7.5 million
2022 - 7.5 million
2023 - 7.5 million

Or his current contract,
2017 - 6 million
2018 - 6 million
2019 - 6 million

You say Duchene's value is diminished because he will be a UFA in the summer of 2019, thus I would assume you would prefer scenario 1 because that Duchene is signed longer term?

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

I think Beaulieu is being undervalued as part of a package for Duchene. Sakic wants a young top 4 D and that is what Beaulieu is, with some upside. Offensively he has picked it up quite a bit.

They have to protect Beauchemin and Johnson due to NMC, and have Barrie/Zadorov to protect as well on D.

Beaulieu doesn't make much sense since they wouldn't have room to protect him.

Sergachev would need to be offered for the Avs to even consider anything.

 

[Kafka]

If it happens will be something like...

TO MTL: Duchene + "something"

TO COL: Plekanec, Beaulieu, (one of) Juulsen/McCarron/Scherbak, 1st

Sergachev is a deal-breaker and will not being going to Colorado.

Makes more sense for Montreal AND Colorado to include Desharnais over Plekanec in such a trade. Bergevin would make a deal in order to build a Stanley Cup conterder team for the next 2-3 years. You need a PK veterant like Plekanec on such a team.

If Bergevin let's Sergachev go, it's because he doesn't believe he has a great future in the AHL. I believe Beaulieu is the guy that he is willing to let go. A guy that is 5 years ahead in development compared to Sergachev.

It's hard to know the actual market price of such a player (depends on offer/demand... and right now, it seems that the number of sellers is limited, so prices are high).

A fair trade to me would be, considering this is a bad drafting year:
To Colorado: Beaulieu + Desharnais + 1st 2017
To Montreal: Duchesne

I wouldn't mind having a low draft pick added by Colorado.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Makes more sense for Montreal AND Colorado to include Desharnais over Plekanec in such a trade. Bergevin would make a deal in order to build a Stanley Cup conterder team for the next 2-3 years. You need a PK veterant like Plekanec on such a team.

If Bergevin let's Sergachev go, it's because he doesn't believe he has a great future in the AHL. I believe Beaulieu is the guy that he is willing to let go. A guy that is 5 years ahead in development compared to Sergachev.

It's hard to know the actual market price of such a player (depends on offer/demand... and right now, it seems that the number of sellers is limited, so prices are high).

A fair trade to me would be, considering this is a bad drafting year:
To Colorado: Beaulieu + Desharnais + 1st 2017
To Montreal: Duchesne

I wouldn't mind having a low draft pick added by Colorado.

In terms of pure value, the avs were able to get even better value than this for ROR.

Seems unlikely they would settle for less when duchene is more valuable.

 

[HockeyThoughts]

I don't know how the Montreal Canadiens can NOT pursue a Matt Duchene deal centered around Mikhail Sergachev.

Don't get me wrong, Sergachev is an incredible young defenseman with a bright future - but he's still 18 and won't be contributing to the Montreal Canadiens in a notable capacity for at least 2-5 years.

Max Pacioretty (28)
Shea Weber (31)
Carey Price (29)
Alexander Radulov (30)

4 of the Canadiens 5 best players are sitting in the prime of their careers. Duchene is 26 years old and has 2 years left on his deal. He is a career ~62pt center who has hit the marks of 30G and 70pts in different seasons.

You have to give to get - and under these circumstances, I think the Canadiens would benefit greatly from a potential exchange with the Colorado Avalanche.

 

[KevinRedkey]

What you just said is the exact reason why the Aves don't acquire a guy like Sergachev for Duchene. Because why? Most teams in the leauge do not have a guy like this to give. If they do, they only have one or two and they are worth way to much! I've said this a hundred times but Duchene's play on the ice is not in question here... it's his pending UFA status at the end of the 2019 season. Those who feel this does not affect his value are just completely wrong IMO. But hey, truth be told in the end once the deal is announced (if Duchene is traded).

McCarron, Scherbak, Juulsen, and future 1st and 2nd round picks as well as Gallagher are grod trade chips for a guy like Duchene and the contract he has left. Some say Beaulieu but not sure if the Aves are interested. I feel the Aves want guys closer to MacKinnon's age and under team RFA control for many seasons!

I read an article a few weeks back about 1st round draft picks in the MLB. I know it's not the same as the NHL but this is what the article said. The 1st round pick the Blue Jays will get for letting EE go is worth somewhere around $30M when you factor team control for the guy they will acquire and develop over his MLB career while they have team control. My point? If you really look at the value of these potential elite level prospects over the first 3-5 years of their NHL career and what they provide on the ice, it's staggering! First of all they are hard to acquire. Once you acquire them, you don't throw them away in a "hope trade" where the chances of the Habs winning the cup is still not great.

I simply don't see the Habs giving up Sergachev. He's their prize prospect and will be replacing Markov when the latter retires which is likely within two years or so. Furthermore, they have to sign Radulov and Galchenyuk which will eat up their cap space. In fact, I see them giving up Beaulieu to make room to sign both. The Habs aren't exactly deep up front and their defense is basically by committee. Who do you give up? To get Duchene, you create a hole somewhere else.

The Habs basically can't afford him in terms of assets and cap space. I don't see Sakic giving him away for picks and prospects. I don't see a deal here. My two cents...

Reasonable replies from the both of you, which I appreciate. I see where you're coming from and I can somewhat relate because I don't want to give up Chabot in any realistic trade.

 

[Price4Prez]

Sakic will end up accepting less then he is asking, and less then Avs fan should/would want in return.

They will get their 1st round pick for sure. But I`m not convinced he will get a Sergachev type prospect.

Imo, any possible deal going down, is with having Beaulieu and a solid prospect like Juulsen/McCarron/Sherbak included, along with some sort of cap dump to make the salaries work.

As much as Duchene is a very good player, teams never get full value back for their respective players. The majority of past trades will reflect that.

Guess its a wait and see thing now.

 

[CodeE]

GMs see Sakic's asking price for Duchene as "ridiculous"

http://www.fanragsports.com/nhl/dreger-gms-view-sakics-current-trade-ask-duchene-ridiculous/

The reason a Duchene trade hasn’t happened yet is because Sakic hasn’t felt like there have been good enough offers to this point to warrant making a move in the first place. The central part of any deal here would involve a young defenseman going back to the Avalanche, and Pierre LeBrun described the specific ask this week.

“It’s been laid out by Joe Sakic to about a dozen teams,†noted LeBrun on Montreal’s TSN 690 Tuesday. “He wants a high-end, young prospect-age defenseman – or if not prospect, in his early 20s – as part of a package that also includes plus-plus. Whether that’s a first-round pick and another asset, who knows. Depends on the team making the offer. But it’s a huge ask for Matt Duchene.â€

“I think that that’s where Sakic is going to get to at some point with Matt Duchene. In the moment, he’s looking for multiple pieces. And it always seems to be the same thing, isn’t it. It’s either a good young defenseman and a second or third-round draft pick and a prospect, or it’s a good young defenseman and a higher prospect and a lower pick, or a good young defenseman and a higher pick and a lower prospect. That type of scenario. Which is just too much.

“The managers that have interest in Matt Duchene that I’ve talked to, they chuckle when you ask them about the asking price. They won’t get into specifics out of respect to Colorado, but they just say, ‘It’s ridiculous. We’re not going to pay it.’

“Maybe that changes between now and March 1. Or perhaps it changes or there’s a willingness to pay that we talke about more freely in the off-season, but I don’t think it’s happening now.â€

 

[CanadienShark]

If it happens will be something like...

TO MTL: Duchene + "something"

TO COL: Plekanec, Beaulieu, (one of) Juulsen/McCarron/Scherbak, 1st

Sergachev is a deal-breaker and will not being going to Colorado.

I think you're being a little overoptimistic. I don't think that sort of deal would appeal to Colorado.

 

[Galactico]

Habs fans be like DD, Beaulieu and 1st for Duchene. Ahah. I'd keep Duchene. Sergachev has a lot of potential but is still unproven while Duchene is a 26 years #1 center that is good enough to play for Team Canada in the Olympics and the World Cup. Duchene for Sergachev + McCarron and first and I'd start to think about it.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

Duchene for Desharnais confirmed

 

[Freudian]

Extra Extra: GMs want a very player cheaply. News at 10.

 

[CanadienShark]

I don't know how the Montreal Canadiens can NOT pursue a Matt Duchene deal centered around Mikhail Sergachev.

Don't get me wrong, Sergachev is an incredible young defenseman with a bright future - but he's still 18 and won't be contributing to the Montreal Canadiens in a notable capacity for at least 2-5 years.

Max Pacioretty (28)
Shea Weber (31)
Carey Price (29)
Alexander Radulov (30)

4 of the Canadiens 5 best players are sitting in the prime of their careers. Duchene is 26 years old and has 2 years left on his deal. He is a career ~62pt center who has hit the marks of 30G and 70pts in different seasons.

You have to give to get - and under these circumstances, I think the Canadiens would benefit greatly from a potential exchange with the Colorado Avalanche.

Radulov - Galchenyuk
Duchene
Weber - Petry

has the makings of a great unit. Then Pacioretty, Lehkonen, Markov and Gallagher get to face lesser competition on the second wave along with someone else like Danault or Shaw.

 

[Mike Jones]

I really don't blame Sakic for aiming high but if he does want to move players he's going to have to be more realistic.

But isn't this normal at the deadline? Teams ask high and hope for the best - as someone has already said it's not really news.

 

[Richiebottles]

That doesn't seem like that much.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I feel like Calgary could put something together that could match up with what Colorado wants to do, but are they willing to do it is the question. Duchene and Gaudreau on the same team would be quite the site.

 

[hototogisu]

That doesn't seem like that much.

Kind of my thinking too. I was expecting more. A high-end D prospect, a high pick and a roster player seems fair, certainly not "ridiculous". But those are the types of trades that happen in the off-season, maybe it's a high price now?

In any case, I don't blame Sakic for starting high (if that is what's perceived as high). He's holding the hammer here.

And at the same time, this could all just be bluster from GMs trying to get Sakic to knock down his ask.

 

[smackdaddy]

He gonna pay the Taylor hall price if he wants a young good defenseman

 

[irunthepeg]

I may be off in value but to me something similar to the Hall/Larsson deal makes sense if he's dead set on a d-man.

And agreed with Ziggy on Duchene/Gaudreau would be really fun.

 

[Guy Boucher]

That doesn't seem like that much.

Yea it's actually reasonable.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Why should Duchene be moved for a mediocre prospect and a 1st? Makes no sense for Avs to do that. Ladd got that as a rental..... I fully understand Sakic. I also understand that its hard as hell to give up a young prospect defensemen who could potentially be a future top pair defensemen but you have to give up a player with alot of potential to get a player like Duchene. If you dont its just not worth it for Avs to trade him. The prospect is still not a lock to be a very good NHL player even if its a good prospect. Duchene already is a very good NHL player.

 

[Lebowski]

Yea it's actually reasonable.

We don't know any specifics... Hard to get a good understanding of the ask without knowing what Sakic asked specifically.

This is all a bit too vague for me to say whether it's fair or not.

 

[ManofSteel55]

So he is available, but only at "he's not available" pricing.

 

[Maitz]

I'd give Sergachev ++ like most of Habs fans


Pacioretty- Duchene- Radulov

Lekhonen - Galchenyuk - Gallagher

Pretty decent top 6