Dreger: Duchene Mega-thread: Habs, NSH inquired about Duchene. Asking price is ridiculous.

[Ivan13]

I'm not sure if you understand what RFA status is or what the implications of it are....

No, he understands it.

 

[mitchmagic]

People overvalue players quite a bit -- the return for Duchene will probably end up being pretty disappointing for the Avalanche.

 

[BLNY]

Really? It's the sum of all parts but talent on this ice is the biggest part of any Power Play. Weber and Radulov & Muller (like you said) are the biggest reasons! We are getting side tracked from the thread here man. Lets get back to Duchene and what his trade value is.

There are plenty of examples of skilled teams that can't put it together 5-on-4, just like there are hard working teams that have success. There's no one way to run a PP. The right coach inserts a system that best uses what is at his disposal.

I'm not bringing up the trade, but if Subban were still there Muller rites the ship. What's more, this team has managed to keep up the level of the power play with significant player loss. Player committment is part of that for sure, but coaching is HUGE. IMO, it's the biggest change. When adjustments were needed, Lambert didn't have a clue. A minor league fighter doesn't know the first thing about special teams. Muller knows a thing or two about scoring goals and hard work.

 

[Foppberg]

People overvalue players quite a bit -- the return for Duchene will probably end up being pretty disappointing for the Avalanche.

If that's the case, we won't trade him.

 

[mitchmagic]

If that's the case, we won't trade him.

Yeah I'm expecting him to remain with the Avs or for fans to be pissed.

 

[Syckle78]

We agree to agree that 2.5 seasons is not short but not long either. I'm not sure what exact trade offer your referring to but my offer for Duchene would be something like this...

Gallagher: A proven RW guy who shows up every game and will score 20-30 goals. And has 4 years left at great AAV ($3.75M)

Beaulieu or Juulsen: Take your pick. Both are mid to later 1st round picks. Beaulieu has not reached is ceiling yet but is close IMO. He's a great skater with size but I would take Juulsen. He's a future shut down defensemen in the NHL. Plays a very smart game.

1st round pick (2017): Will probably end up being in the 20-31 range.

Some say that's not enough but I bet you that's what the Aves end up getting (something similar). The Aves can demand high price all they want but they might as well keep him because no NHL team is giving up a top 10 potential elite level defense man for a guy who can walk after the 2019 season

The whole point is there isn't a potentially premium asset in there. Duchene is a premium asset. They cannot give that up for secondary assets. They'll get either a very high draft pick, a top notch prospect or a established top pairing defenseman in whatever package they trade him for. We aren't talking about a player that's demanded a trade and has a nmc. If he's trading the avs hold all the cards with most of the teams in the league bidding.

 

[Boxscore]

The difference between Z and Sergy is negligible, especially given that Z actually showed something in the NHL before he was traded.

Duchene won plenty in his career. He is an elite ES point producer, Sergachyov has potential but he is not a Provorov level prospect and him matching Provorov's impact is what we Habs fans can only hope for and not a certainty.

I don't see how Duchene height is significant in any way given how strong he is on his skates - funny thing is he bumped Weber off the puck a number of times when Weber was a Pred - looking at point production without applying any context is foolish at best and his contract is just fine.

As for Kessel, he was traded for 20 cents on the $, that deal was horrible for Toronto if you ask me.

I guess we will have to disagree about Sergachev and Zadorov when both were drafted. Zadorov was labeled a raw project from day 1. A player with very good skating ability for his size and with a physical dimension. He was comparable to Sam Morin not Mikhail Sergachev.

The parallels between Sergachev and Provorov are striking - both accelerated up the draft board at a fast pace and were, perhaps, two of the biggest risers of their draft classes.

Sergachev is far from a project the way Zadorov was. Like Provorov, Sergachev is a polished gem who projects to be an elite 2-way defenseman who can anchor a top pairing and log 25 minutes a night in all situations. Zadorov was never that prospect, and there have always been questions about his temper, discipline and decision making. Not the case with Sergachev.

I agree with you that Kessel was undersold, but that's what usually happens once a good player and a team are headed for separation. We see it over and over. Sakic knows he needs to move a core piece or two and Duchene has publicly authorized a trade. At this point, there usually isn't any turning back, especially the state the Avs are in right now. That said, Sakic will not "give Duchene away" but the return in these situations are usually perceived underwhelming by the fans.

I would be shocked if Sergachev was in any Duchene trade, that's all I'm saying. I certainly wouldn't move him in a package for Duchene, although I would give up a lot of value and pieces in a deal.

 

[Number 57]

i dont understand, value is all over the place..

From your perspective yeah, but I'm giving the Avs choice among our top prospects / Beaulieu. Maybe their scouting staff has a different evaluation. If they want Sergachyev fine, but if they'd rather have McCarron or Juulsen, that's their choice.

 

[Draft]

I'm pretty sure I do. I've gone through the entire mess with ROR and have gone through all the scenarios.

Johansen can legitimately bolt after 2.5 years after being traded for.
Because of his high qualifying offer at RFA (1.5 years in) at 6M, he doesn't even need to negotiate with Nashville. He can sign his QO of 6M, and ride off into UFA a year later and never have to sit down with Nashville management if he doesn't want to. And there's nothing Nashville can do about it if that's what RyJo wants.

I'm not saying that's what will happen. But when Nashville traded for him, they were not guaranteed more than 2.5 years.

So yes, I do understand. Are you sure you fully understood this particular scenario? Or did you just assume and lump all RFAs as being equal sitautions.

I see what you're saying now! Sorry, should have read your other posts. However, is there any precedent for an RFA doing that? Seems exceptionally unlikely for it to happen - especially if there's more money and term on the table with a years worth of negotiations for a player's prime playing years. That being said, there is still strong reason to believe, and plenty of evidence to prove, that an RFA/UFA would not stick around in MTL after 2 seasons. It's a very polarizing market.

I think one thing that is being missed here is that top line players with ANY term rarely come available. I'm not sure why there's any expectation that the Habs would be able to get a hold of a player like Duchene with any more term than he already has? This isn't a homegrown talent that the team will save money on while they're young.

 

[Soundgarden]

The defense has looked awful? So 11th in the league in PK% and GA is terrible eh? And this is with the team missing Subban and Josi for long stretches. I'll take Joey-Duchene as the top 2 Cs with Josi, Subban, Irwin, and Ellis any day of the week without thinking twice about it.

Individually Josi, Subban and Ekholm have not looked good for the most part, I'd say we're 11th in PK and GA in spite of our defense not mainly because of it. Don't get me wrong, if Colorado wanted Ekholm+ for Duchene I'd do it in a heartbeat and then overpay for a good no.4.

 

[EdAVSfan]

I don't see the comparison with kessel.

It's near impossible to use a guy like kessel for comparison purely because of his limited no trade clause. He offered 8 teams, which most of whom could not even fit him in. A no trade clause is debilitating. It restricts your power and your negotiation power. Duchene can be traded to any team in the league.

 

[EdAVSfan]

I see what you're saying now! Sorry, should have read your other posts. However, is there any precedent for an RFA doing that? Seems exceptionally unlikely for it to happen - especially if there's more money and term on the table with a years worth of negotiations for a player's prime playing years. That being said, there is still strong reason to believe, and plenty of evidence to prove, that an RFA/UFA would not stick around in MTL after 2 seasons. It's a very polarizing market.

I think one thing that is being missed here is that top line players with ANY term rarely come available. I'm not sure why there's any expectation that the Habs would be able to get a hold of a player like Duchene with any more term than he already has? This isn't a homegrown talent that the team will save money on while they're young.

Well, ROR is one example. He would've don't that had the avs not traded him.

If players are in markets they like, with teams they like, they stick around. While Montreal can be a polarizing market, it works both ways. Some players love the atmosphere and some hate it. There's a reason high quality players, especially centers don't often make it to UFA. Because teams don't let them. Montreal would have over 2 years to convince duchene to stay. That's plenty of time.

But honestly, how many high quality players have left Montreal for UFA despite Montreal wanting to keep them.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

It's a consideration. Right now, if Poile were to protect all four top-4 defensemen and the top three forwards (Neal, Forsberg and Johansen), he would then have to decide between Smith, Wilson and Jarnkrok and likely lose one of the other two. Wilson probably won't be protected or selected (paid too much for too little production), so it comes down to Smith, the 20-goal scorer whose $4.25M cap hit is a little rich, and Jarnkrok, the 15-goal scorer with a mere $1.9M cap hit. I think that Poile would protect Jarnkrok. The question, then, is whether Poile would be OK losing Smith. In some ways, getting that $4.25M cap hit off the books would do him a favor. On the other hand, his 20 goals are valuable to a Preds team in need of scorers.

If Poile were to trade Ekholm or Ellis, then he could suddenly protect 7 forwards, instead of 4. That would allow protecting all three of Smith, Wilson and Jarnkrok and the forward that he gets in trade for Ekholm/Ellis. That could be tempting for Poile. At that point, all that he would have to worry about is losing a 4th-line plugger like Cody McLeod or Colton Sissons or defenseman Matt Irwin, all players that are easily replaceable in free agency.

Arvidsson will be protected over all of them.

 

[Draft]

I guess we will have to disagree about Sergachev and Zadorov when both were drafted. Zadorov was labeled a raw project from day 1. A player with very good skating ability for his size and with a physical dimension. He was comparable to Sam Morin not Mikhail Sergachev.

The parallels between Sergachev and Provorov are striking - both accelerated up the draft board at a fast pace and were, perhaps, two of the biggest risers of their draft classes.

Sergachev is far from a project the way Zadorov was. Like Provorov, Sergachev is a polished gem who projects to be an elite 2-way defenseman who can anchor a top pairing and log 25 minutes a night in all situations. Zadorov was never that prospect, and there have always been questions about his temper, discipline and decision making. Not the case with Sergachev.

I agree with you that Kessel was undersold, but that's what usually happens once a good player and a team are headed for separation. We see it over and over. Sakic knows he needs to move a core piece or two and Duchene has publicly authorized a trade. At this point, there usually isn't any turning back, especially the state the Avs are in right now. That said, Sakic will not "give Duchene away" but the return in these situations are usually perceived underwhelming by the fans.

I would be shocked if Sergachev was in any Duchene trade, that's all I'm saying. I certainly wouldn't move him in a package for Duchene, although I would give up a lot of value and pieces in a deal.

I think it would actually be in COL's best interest to acquire Beaulieu over Sergachev. He's getting ragged on in this thread, but the guy has legitimate, two-way top pairing potential and is a proven commodity in the NHL. At the very least, he's a solid second pairing player that can play in all situations. Great guy to go with the core they're moving toward. Sergachev seems like the sexy choice because he was a recent top-10 pick and he's brand new to most fans - but there's way more risk and development to go.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The whole point is there isn't a potentially premium asset in there. Duchene is a premium asset. They cannot give that up for secondary assets. They'll get either a very high draft pick, a top notch prospect or a established top pairing defenseman in whatever package they trade him for. We aren't talking about a player that's demanded a trade and has a nmc. If he's trading the avs hold all the cards with most of the teams in the league bidding.

Gallagher, Beaulieu or Juulsen, and a 1st round pick (or some package similar to that) is what the true value is. All depends on what the Aves want vs what each team is offering in a package deal. I get your point but the whole issue here is weather or not the "premium asset" is actually on the table from any other team. I could be wrong but doubt it. It has nothing to do with Duchene on the ice... it has everything to do with long term control and Duchene is free to walk after the 2019 season.

Here's the thing. Nobody knows for sure if Sakic actually wants to trade Duchene. I believe it's a 50/50 chance because the Aves are sitting back and listening to offers. I bet you the phone is ringing quite a bit too! At this point, the Aves don't have to trade him but at some point they will if they want to give the "rebuild" a boost with acquiring assets near MacKinnon's age. It's either at this trade dead line or this coming off season is where Duchene gets traded. It could go to next years trade deadline but I believe the value gets less and less as we head towards the 2019 season.

True value is dictated by circumstances and how many teams put offers on the table. The more teams that are serious, the higher the offer is but then some teams opt out. The Aves hold the power at this point but that shifts to the rest of the league the longer they wait.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think it would actually be in COL's best interest to acquire Beaulieu over Sergachev. He's getting ragged on in this thread, but the guy has legitimate, two-way top pairing potential and is a proven commodity in the NHL. At the very least, he's a solid second pairing player that can play in all situations. Great guy to go with the core they're moving toward. Sergachev seems like the sexy choice because he was a recent top-10 pick and he's brand new to most fans - but there's way more risk and development to go.

I agree. And it goes against both teams. Habs don't really know who Sergachev will become so they can't trade him this early and same goes for the Aves. I suspect they would want someone more proven on defense so they can grow with MacKinnon.

 

[Boxscore]

I think it would actually be in COL's best interest to acquire Beaulieu over Sergachev. He's getting ragged on in this thread, but the guy has legitimate, two-way top pairing potential and is a proven commodity in the NHL. At the very least, he's a solid second pairing player that can play in all situations. Great guy to go with the core they're moving toward. Sergachev seems like the sexy choice because he was a recent top-10 pick and he's brand new to most fans - but there's way more risk and development to go.

I think Beaulieu would be a great fit in Colorado. He's a swift-skating lefty that can play a Top-4 role immediately. He also has more room for development. I'm proposing the Avs receive...

- Plekanec (short-term #2C or trade bait at deadline for another good prospect/pick)

- Scherbak (projected top-6 forward)

- Beaulieu (immediate top-4 D with an outside shot at developing into a legit top-pairing D)

- Juulsen (projected top-4 D)

- 1st round pick

I think this offer is more than fair for Duchene. The Avs free up a large contract, get plenty of depth, a 1st rounder, and shakeup the core of the team. The addition of Beaulieu also gives Sakic an opportunity to deal Barrie for another big piece or additional picks/pieces. Beaulieu could step into Barrie's role on the PP today if needed - might not be as dynamic but he can handle the role and move the puck.

 

[CHaracter79]

The difference between Z and Sergy is negligible, especially given that Z actually showed something in the NHL before he was traded.

Duchene won plenty in his career. He is an elite ES point producer, Sergachyov has potential but he is not a Provorov level prospect and him matching Provorov's impact is what we Habs fans can only hope for and not a certainty.

I don't see how Duchene height is significant in any way given how strong he is on his skates - funny thing is he bumped Weber off the puck a number of times when Weber was a Pred - looking at point production without applying any context is foolish at best and his contract is just fine.

As for Kessel, he was traded for 20 cents on the $, that deal was horrible for Toronto if you ask me.

you realize that Provorov only had 14 points more then sergachev last year in junior and Sergachev was 17 and Provorov was 19. There is a huge difference between a 17 year old and a 19 year old.

at 18 they are both PPG players in junior. there is no real difference.

PRovorov is 20. we will see in two years where Serg is at in his developpement but at equal age there is not much difference only that serg won d man of the year at 17 in the O

 

[BrawlFan]

Nashville has the D and the F to make it happen.

Im calling Toronto as his destination though, no way they don't load up for an all offence playoff run

 

[Captain Mountain]

The only defenceman that would fit the bill would be Ellis, but Colorado has Barrie so unless The Preds have a prospect that is on sergachevs level I don't see a trade happening

Ellis is a RHD and 26. According to Avs fans, they need someone much younger. Fabbro/Girard seems to be closer to what they want, but better.

 

[CH25]

Is Duchene really the missing piece for the Habs to win the cup ? Sergachev is way to good for anything less.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Well, ROR is one example. He would've don't that had the avs not traded him.

If players are in markets they like, with teams they like, they stick around. While Montreal can be a polarizing market, it works both ways. Some players love the atmosphere and some hate it. There's a reason high quality players, especially centers don't often make it to UFA. Because teams don't let them. Montreal would have over 2 years to convince duchene to stay. That's plenty of time.

But honestly, how many high quality players have left Montreal for UFA despite Montreal wanting to keep them.

That's just it. In any debate, there are examples to support any side but then there is debating against typical trends. There is just not many situations where guys hold out and sign QA until they serve the minimum 7 years of RFA and then walk. Most (like 95% or higher) elite level players are signed till there later 20's or early 30's over 2 contracts (ELC and long term) or 3 contracts (ELC, Bridge, then another contract). Duchene is on his 3rd contract and he more than likely goes to UFA unless the team acquiring him shows him the money and he wants to stay of course! It's risky for the team acquiring him to give up premium elite level assets with the risk of losing him in 2.5 seasons.

That's the whole debate here in determining Duchene's true value. Which is the real reason why the Aves are considering to trade him now before the value goes down!

 

[Club]

That seems awfully small for Duchene.

I think just a little bit, but awfully

 

[Habs Halifax]

Is Duchene really the missing piece for the Habs to win the cup ? Sergachev is way to good for anything less.

Habs are close if they acquire Duchene but they still have plenty of good teams to go through to win the Cup. I say the Habs chances to win goes up with Duchene but the chances of winning are still not great! Then, in 3 years, Duchene walks and Sergachev is a top pairing Defensman with the Aves on a great team controlled contract (maybe, probably, projects..etc). It's Ryan M for Gomez all over again for the Habs. MB will not do it!

Said it a hundred times... I'd trade Sergachev in a package deal for Duchene but only if Duchene was signed long term. Lets say 4 or 5 years beyond this year at least. Duchene's next contract will be north of $6M for sure! So that creates cap problems for the Habs and it's the same off season Patch has to be re-signed. Which is the off season after when Price has to be resigned.

 

[nomorekids]

I could see something centered around Ekholm and a high end prospect, but I would try to engineer a deal that sent a d-man back to Nashville to fill in the gap. Josi is reportedly almost ready to come back from injury, but we'd still need someone to step in. Beauchemin, maybe?