Dreger: Duchene Mega-thread: Habs, NSH inquired about Duchene. Asking price is ridiculous.

[Habs Halifax]

Pointing out the inane things in one's post isn't attacking. Duchene and the Avs aren't good on the PP because of the scheme there, and their PP coach who needed to be fired years ago. They also have no PPQB on the roster to speak off.

No, your attacking. Aves top 6 is not terrible and saying this is not insane. Move on from it.

 

[Habs Halifax]

PP success doesn't have a lot to do with talent. Habs fans should know that. Confidence is the most important thing. Second is coaching. Give that group Muller, and their PP improves.

Really? It's the sum of all parts but talent on this ice is the biggest part of any Power Play. Weber and Radulov & Muller (like you said) are the biggest reasons! We are getting side tracked from the thread here man. Lets get back to Duchene and what his trade value is.

 

[Ivan13]

PP success doesn't have a lot to do with talent. Habs fans should know that. Confidence is the most important thing. Second is coaching. Give that group Muller, and their PP improves.

And having the General operate helps things as well. Avs have no one like that, Barrie is a bad player at PP, that's why all Avs fans laugh someone says he's a PP specialist, other defensemen on the team are more of a trigger-men rather that guys who can run the PP. You can't just throw out 5 talented guys and expect things to work out.

Another thing is that the PP - in the past especially - was constructed in a way to force feed pucks to Iginla, effectively neutering everyone else on the ice and they are just standing still with no movement, which can be offset if you pass the puck quickly, but everyone hangs on to it allowing the D to settle and adjust. I watch tons of hockey and the stuff Avs are running on the PP is some mickey mouse stuff, teams in the CHL run better and more versatile PPs.

 

[Benstheman]

Go look at Gomez's #'s prior to being traded to the Habs and compare that to Duchene's numbers today. Your talking about hindsight after he was traded and how much he declined.

I clearly remember Gomez was considered one of the worst contract at the time and rightfully so. 7,5M$ a year for 16 goals and 58 pts (the year before Habs traded for him) was atrocious.

At the time of signing his contract, cap was at 50M$. Horrible, horrible contract.

 

[Habs Halifax]

A top line center is not getting traded for that junk package. Not a single enticing piece there. If that's the trade sakic should be fired on the spot.

A top line center on some teams. It could be said like this as well... A top 6 center who is soon to be UFA. Yes 2.5 seasons left but that WILL affect his value. His true value is not like he is signed long term which is what some are insisting.

 

[EdAVSfan]

It's amazing how these Montreal threads are so similar to the ROR threads.

Although, I have to say, there are many more reasonable jabs fans in this thread including sergachev.

Buffalo fans were definitely more stubborn when it came to zadorov.

If bergevin won't include sergachev in the deal, no problem, Sakic will move on to the next buyer.

Almost all teams have a prospect who projects to be top 4. Everyone on these boards is offering up players with similar value to scherbak and juulsen. Sakic should have no problems getting quantity packages already. He's gonna continue to get people to increase until he gets the "right" piece.

 

[EdAVSfan]

A top line center on some teams. It could be said like this as well... A top 6 center who is soon to be UFA. Yes 2.5 seasons left but that WILL affect his value. His true value is not like he is signed long term which is what some are insisting.

I argued you about this last time too.

Ryan Johansen had the same 2.5 years to UFA as duchene does now.

His contract is not reducing his value. It gives teams 3 playoff runs and significant time to assess whether or not he's someone they should keep for longer.

 

[Syckle78]

A top line center on some teams. It could be said like this as well... A top 6 center who is soon to be UFA. Yes 2.5 seasons left but that WILL affect his value. His true value is not like he is signed long term which is what some are insisting.

2.5 is not soon. That is not an amount of time thaf effects his value. He's also a bonifed true number one center. Are some centers better? Obviously but that's true for everyone except Sid,McDavid and Malkin. Would you trade your prime number one center for a package not containing one single premium asset? No? Ok,then..

 

[tony d]

Duchene to Montreal makes a lot of sense to me. Got to think the Avs would want a 2017 1st, Sergachev and Plekanec in return though.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I clearly remember Gomez was considered one of the worst contract at the time and rightfully so. 7,5M$ a year for 16 goals and 58 pts (the year before Habs traded for him) was atrocious.

At the time of signing his contract, cap was at 50M$. Horrible, horrible contract.

Before Gomez was traded? He was a Cup winner and excelled in the playoffs and never was a big goal scorer. He was a consistent 50-70 pts guy in a time when scoring in the NHL was really low! Overpaid (at that point), probably yes slightly but nobody predicted what was to happen next with how bad Gomez declined. That's not the point here though... were talking about prior to when he was traded. Not after.

If you actually look at the last lets say 4 season of Duchene and compare that to Gomez's last 4 seasons (prior to being traded), Gomez had slightly better #'s actually. Like I said from the beginning, the major difference is Gomez was about 3 years older at the time he was traded. He also had more term to his contract and Gainey though he was getting a proven 60 pts guy which clearly didn't end up happening. Habs look like fools for giving up Ryan M in that trade!

And look at this... Duchene is on pace for 56 points this season. Gomez got 58 points the year before he was traded like you mentioned.

MY POINT? THE SIMILARITIES WERE THE SAME!

 

[Ivan13]

Again completely ignoring the context to validate a senseless narrative.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I'm convinced this'll be a who will blink first scenario between Ottawa and Montreal. Sergachev ++ or Chabot ++, neither team wants to give them up, but will one of them cave?

 

[Scuba-Steve]

Sergachev + any prospect not named Juulsen + 1st or 2 2nd + cap dump

 

[Habs Halifax]

2.5 is not soon. That is not an amount of time thaf effects his value. He's also a bonifed true number one center. Are some centers better? Obviously but that's true for everyone except Sid,McDavid and Malkin. Would you trade your prime number one center for a package not containing one single premium asset? No? Ok,then..

We agree to agree that 2.5 seasons is not short but not long either. I'm not sure what exact trade offer your referring to but my offer for Duchene would be something like this...

Gallagher: A proven RW guy who shows up every game and will score 20-30 goals. And has 4 years left at great AAV ($3.75M)

Beaulieu or Juulsen: Take your pick. Both are mid to later 1st round picks. Beaulieu has not reached is ceiling yet but is close IMO. He's a great skater with size but I would take Juulsen. He's a future shut down defensemen in the NHL. Plays a very smart game.

1st round pick (2017): Will probably end up being in the 20-31 range.

Some say that's not enough but I bet you that's what the Aves end up getting (something similar). The Aves can demand high price all they want but they might as well keep him because no NHL team is giving up a top 10 potential elite level defense man for a guy who can walk after the 2019 season

 

[Captain97]

I argued you about this last time too.

Ryan Johansen had the same 2.5 years to UFA as duchene does now.

His contract is not reducing his value. It gives teams 3 playoff runs and significant time to assess whether or not he's someone they should keep for longer.

Johansen is about to be a RFA not a UFA

 

[FireBurningBin]

It would basically look like this

Montreal: Matt Duchene

Colorado: Noah Juulsen, David Desharnais, Zach Fucale and 1st 2017

If that was the case he'd already be gone.

 

[Ivan13]

Johansen is about to be a RFA not a UFA

Johansen was 2.5 years from potentially becoming an UFA when he was traded, same as Duchene. We go through this song and dance in every Duchene thread because people can't be bothered to at least look up the basic stuff about contracts from the CBA.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Johansen is about to be a RFA not a UFA

Nooooo.

Johansen was 1.5 years from RFA and 2.5 years from UFA.

Nashville was only guaranteed 2.5 years with Johansen, just like any team trading for Duchene.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Johansen was 2.5 years from potentially becoming an UFA when he was traded, same as Duchene. We go through this song and dance in every Duchene thread because people can't be bothered to at least look up the basic stuff about contracts from the CBA.

Well most would agree RFA and UFA are not the same... [MOD]

 

[smirob]

Personally I'd prefer we target Landeskog.

 

[Boxscore]

The thing is, he really isn't.

Also, I'd say being a top 10 point producer at ES in the entire NHL since the last lockout means he is elite at producing points at ES. Furthermore, hockey is a team sport, attributing success or rather failure of the team on the back of a single player, when said player is one of the few that carries his load is foolish at best.

Last, but not least, Sergachyov and McAvoy aren't comparable to Provorov.

Yes, Sergachev really is better than Zadorov was at the same development stage.

And, yes, hockey is a team sport, but if Duchene had a track record of being more proven as a winner (or put up elite numbers) it would be a different story. Duchene is a really good player, granted. But I've always felt Duchene was a bit overrated because he is very flashy doing his job. But if we're looking at production, Kessel produced more than Duchene and the return will be similar IMO.

Yes, Sergachev and McAvoy are comparable to Provorov the year he was drafted - not now that he's developed and is an NHL staple. I'm talking about Provorov when drafted, which is what these guys are going to be. Sergachev projects to have similar impact as Provorov when he makes the show. And, unlike Provorov in Philly, Sergachev will have the luxury of learning from masters like Weber and Markov, which will do even more for his development.

If the Flyers traded Provorov for Duchene last year, do you think they'd be better off right now? Absolutely not. Provorov is their #1 defense anchor for the next decade, which is what Sergachev will be for the Habs once Markov is finished and Weber is winding down. It reminds me of when the veteran Robinson mentored a young Chelios for the Canadiens in the 80's - that's what a Weber-Sergachev duo could be like.

You don't trade that in a package for a 5-11 center who scored 59 and 55 points the last 2 seasons and is scoring at a 56 point pace this year as well. Not to mention he comes with a $6 million cap hit.

I have no problem with the Canadiens offering fair value (even overpaying a little) but Sergachev is (or should be) 100% off limits.

If the Habs go over the top and offer...

Plekanec, Beaulieu, Scherbak, Juulsen and a 1st... I want to see a team beat that offer. The Avs have "star players" but they need a "team." 4 pieces and a 1st round pick from the Canadiens for Duchene is a big package and definitely better than what the Leafs received for Kessel... by quite a bit.

 

[EdAVSfan]

Well most would agree RFA and UFA are not the same..[MOD]

Not if it doesn't change what the team (Nashville) was getting.

Even if Johansen turned RFA during those 2.5 years, Nashville had no guarantees that they'd have him for longer than that.

It's that simple. Why do people continue to ignore this? It's a fact. It's not disputable.

 

[Draft]

Not if it doesn't change what the team (Nashville) was getting.

Even if Johansen turned RFA during those 2.5 years, Nashville had no guarantees that they'd have him for longer than that.

It's that simple. Why do people continue to ignore this? It's a fact. It's not disputable.

I'm not sure if you understand what RFA status is or what the implications of it are....

 

[EdAVSfan]

I'm not sure if you understand what RFA status is or what the implications of it are....

I'm pretty sure I do. I've gone through the entire mess with ROR and have gone through all the scenarios.

Johansen can legitimately bolt after 2.5 years after being traded for.
Because of his high qualifying offer at RFA (1.5 years in) at 6M, he doesn't even need to negotiate with Nashville. He can sign his QO of 6M, and ride off into UFA a year later and never have to sit down with Nashville management if he doesn't want to. And there's nothing Nashville can do about it if that's what RyJo wants.

I'm not saying that's what will happen. But when Nashville traded for him, they were not guaranteed more than 2.5 years.

So yes, I do understand. Are you sure you fully understood this particular scenario? Or did you just assume and lump all RFAs as being equal sitautions.

 

[Ivan13]

Yes, Sergachev really is better than Zadorov was at the same development stage.

And, yes, hockey is a team sport, but if Duchene had a track record of being more proven as a winner (or put up elite numbers) it would be a different story. Duchene is a really good player, granted. But I've always felt Duchene was a bit overrated because he is very flashy doing his job. But if we're looking at production, Kessel produced more than Duchene and the return will be similar IMO.

Yes, Sergachev and McAvoy are comparable to Provorov the year he was drafted - not now that he's developed and is an NHL staple. I'm talking about Provorov when drafted, which is what these guys are going to be. Sergachev projects to have similar impact as Provorov when he makes the show. And, unlike Provorov in Philly, Sergachev will have the luxury of learning from masters like Weber and Markov, which will do even more for his development.

If the Flyers traded Provorov for Duchene last year, do you think they'd be better off right now? Absolutely not. Provorov is their #1 defense anchor for the next decade, which is what Sergachev will be for the Habs once Markov is finished and Weber is winding down. It reminds me of when the veteran Robinson mentored a young Chelios for the Canadiens in the 80's - that's what a Weber-Sergachev duo could be like.

You don't trade that in a package for a 5-11 center who scored 59 and 55 points the last 2 seasons and is scoring at a 56 point pace this year as well. Not to mention he comes with a $6 million cap hit.

I have no problem with the Canadiens offering fair value (even overpaying a little) but Sergachev is (or should be) 100% off limits.

If the Habs go over the top and offer...

Plekanec, Beaulieu, Scherbak, Juulsen and a 1st... I want to see a team beat that offer. The Avs have "star players" but they need a "team." 4 pieces and a 1st round pick from the Canadiens for Duchene is a big package and definitely better than what the Leafs received for Kessel... by quite a bit.

The difference between Z and Sergy is negligible, especially given that Z actually showed something in the NHL before he was traded.

Duchene won plenty in his career. He is an elite ES point producer, Sergachyov has potential but he is not a Provorov level prospect and him matching Provorov's impact is what we Habs fans can only hope for and not a certainty.

I don't see how Duchene height is significant in any way given how strong he is on his skates - funny thing is he bumped Weber off the puck a number of times when Weber was a Pred - looking at point production without applying any context is foolish at best and his contract is just fine.

As for Kessel, he was traded for 20 cents on the $, that deal was horrible for Toronto if you ask me.