Dubois

[Raccoon Jesus]

Um...

thanks?

You're a breath of fresh air, Jesse.

Unless you have a TikTok channel that I don't know about where you're dancing and using teenage slang.

I agree with both of this. As mentioned, I like the discussion of analytics and its application.

I disagree with the conclusion. But think the topic is worth talking about. But more than anything, I think we're past discussing moral victories or the equivalence of more gold stars for PLD. Fiala was also reinvigorated after the all-star break, but he's also making egregious errors which can't adequately be quantified.

FWIW, I suggested a couple fixes regarding the conclusion. As I'm not the author, I didn't want to control the tone or premise behind the article, but I felt more clarity and nuance in reviewing the analytics was warranted, instead of a more sweeping conclusion I think was originally communicated.


It was definitely an ambitious article. Not one I would have touched. For example, there was actually an article I wanted to write about a potential problem prospect in the draft. It was going to explore how character and maturity can be overused or underused, but it ended up being more of a lightning rod than what I feel it was worth, and didn't want to chance the intention being misunderstood.

Not that readers are unable to make the distinction, but I had and have plenty of other material for (what I hope to be) more entertaining content. Especially since I'd be hard-pressed to believe the Kings are interested in this player.

Like I said, no particular beef with this author or you either, obviously. And it's absolutely worth talking about, I'm not going to say PLD hasn't been better. But considering the source and the overly rosy lens, it just comes off as yet another 'please like my team' piece, intentional or not. That may not be the author's fault.

 

[BaileyFan]

PLDefenders jumped the shark a long time ago. The guy is going to fail to hit the half a point per game mark. If any of us who were against the trade from the start had predicted that before the season, we would’ve been called out as haters with Blake Derangement Syndrome, and rightfully so.

I’m guessing the next milestone will be when he plays all 82 games which automatically makes him superior to the made-of-glass ingrate malcontent Vilardi.

 

[bland]

There are a lot of different disappointments wrapped up in the Dubois mess: The decision to bring in any player at that cost in the first place, the max contract to a player that had proven very little but that they hoped would progress while ignoring an already documented set of issues, and then the actual performance itself.

Even if the performance improves, it won't address the fact that the Kings were in no position to take such a big gamble yet.

But if there was ever a slam dunk argument against believing in analytics, this is it. It doesn't matter one bit if you interpret numbers so that it appears that he should be doing better - the fact is that he isn't doing well at all.

The entire premise of that article is a fallacy. Analytics are NEVER predictors, they are an accumulation of things that actually happened and are devoid of a thesis. Using them says more about your intentions than any truth, and if your intention is to claim that Dubois is "not bad", good lord, do you need him to turn around and shoot the puck in his own net and rip off his jersey to reveal one of his opponents before you can admit what's happening?

 

[King'sPawn]

The entire premise of that article is a fallacy. Analytics are NEVER predictors, they are an accumulation of things that actually happened and are devoid of a thesis.

I do feel the need to push back on this statement a bit, and I know we've gone back and forth on this, so I'm sorry if I'm being a nuisance or repetitive. Just because someone misinterprets or misuses them doesn't negate the potential. We just haven't found the way to measure it yet.

You talk about momentum and how it can't be quantified - but if it's observable, there are ways to capture it even if it's not been done yet. We can see points of time where a team has a decrease of zone entries and exits. Shot differential changes. Differential of board battles. Where shots are taken. Hit differential. These are all measurable, but hasn't been compiled in a way to express momentum in a satisfactory way. And once something reasonable is constructed, I'd be interested in seeing the specific events that trigger momentum changes and the players who do it.

And just like anything else, if it's measurable, we can look at factors leading to changes in the numbers and apply some reasonable expectations of future outcomes. Analytics isn't supposed to be a crystal ball. It's closer to being a weatherman when all is said and done. And even then in comparison, hockey analytics is in its infancy.

As far as Dubois - if his (minimal) changes continue, there is reason to believe he will see an uptick in scoring. Is that good enough? Well, no, not to me. But I would be interested in seeing if PLD continues to be closer to the net. If his physical engagement improves. It's a combination of genuine curiosity but also looking for confirmation of whether I am actually seeing or if I'm affected by my own biases.

 

[BigKing]

Since the coaching change:

Games = 26
Points = 15
Goals = 5
+/- = 4

Four of the five goals are against CBJ, Chicago and Ottawa. Eight of the 15 points are against those garbage teams plus New Jersey.

He's had a five game scoreless streak and two three game streaks, one of which he is currently in.

He's still trash. That's a ~16 goal pace since the coaching change. 47 points over 82 game pace. Better than his current pace but, still, why is anyone trying to applaud 16 goals and 47 points? Iafallo had 14 goals and 36 points in 59 games last season. That's 19/50 over 82 games. Iafallo!

 

[Kudelski37]

Alternate headline: PLD needs to play Chicago more.

The Kings didn't play Chicago under TMac and PLD was on pace for 34 points. PLD has 4 points in two games against Chicago. He has scored at 38 points pace under Hiller in games against teams other than Chicago. Most of his production improvement under Hiller is simply playing Chicago.

 

[Johnny Utah]

If Blake and co didn’t think Byfield was ready for 3C and eventually 1C why they didn’t they just sign RR, Duchense or Bjugstad?

They could have moved AI in another deal, kept Vilardi, kept or waived Kupari (who cares). Vilardi plus whatever UFA mentioned above would be the same price as Dubois.

 

[Omni Owl]

If Blake and co didn’t think Byfield was ready for 3C and eventually 1C why they didn’t they just sign RR, Duchense or Bjugstad?

They could have moved AI in another deal, kept Vilardi, kept or waived Kupari (who cares). Vilardi plus whatever UFA mentioned above would be the same price as Dubois.

I constantly wonder why Blake didn't go this route. A free agent C signing would've made a lot more sense, and any of those center's you mentioned are an upgrade over PLD (especially O'Reilly, who would have fit perfectly and brought a culture of winning from his Cup run with the Blues). And obviously we get to keep Vilardi in that scenario. You think Blake would have learned something from signing Petersen to such a ridiculous contract before he even performed well. Instead he doubled down like an imbecile and gave an even more ridiculous term to PLD, who will be an albatross for years to come.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Du

I'd take back Ilya Kovalchuk than have PLD; contracts aside.

Sexy right shot forward that can shoot vs Slow 3.5C turd.

Dubois has had better moments than Ilya ever did,

I never figured out the surfing jokes, until it came to my attention that most of the "Kings fans" on here and especially the most critical ones. comments eventually revealed they have lived nowhere near the ocean for most of their lives.

And a long with their apparent mental scurvy against the Kings, they get severely butt hurt if you comment on it in reference to their comments.

People that make these type of comments, back off or disappear for the most part when the Kings win or are winning. And the rain squalls pass and the sun comes out.

Then when the next cold front swings through and the Kings lose, the comments that follow take no consideration about which shipmates are out injured and how important they are to the team's successful voyage

Probably because they dis and underate, and propose trades around some of the Kings most critical pieces shipmates

The main problem was the tailspin under Captain McLlelan that spun and spun out of control.
First Mate Hiller comes in and halts the skid and turns around the team but now is facing the aforementioned injury absences to critical cogs on the Kings ship.
Interim Coach Hiller needs to figure out how to win when we are missing those big puzzle pieces.
Admiral Blake is accountable for the terrible McLlelan hire and if they fall out of the playoffs he may indeed be made to walk the plank, like Axel always is,
this summer vs. the following one, barring smoother sailing.
The Dubois trade is another one that falls on the Admiral, it has looked terrible at times but ok when the Kings other big pieces are all healthy.

It's getting stormy, the ship is getting rocked and the rats are running all over the ship, driven out of the undercarriage by the sprouting leaks.
I will reserve judgement and cheer for the entire crew but if the ship sinks , I would almost welcome ownership , salvaging what they can and hauling it back to the shipyard to start a new build.

 

[Surf Nutz]

I don’t think a buyout happens. It’s unlikely even with regime change but… the reasons behind people wanting a buyout definitely warrant a discussion. However in fairness to Hoven whilst as far as I recall he doesn’t work for the team, he does have a formal association of sorts. That’s why he gets so many good guests and I’m sure it’s why he would want to side step such debates.

I have not heard the podcast in question but perhaps it’d be better to avoid the subject altogether rather than completely dismissing the buyout point of view… even if he doesn’t agree.

I haven't heard it either but the reason may be a PLD buyout is just not happening, dashing the plethora of frat boy like fantasy frustration comments stored here like a reserve of unused prophylactics.

The fans?

THE FANS?

The masochistic deluded small cult of comments here do not represent Kings fans just a small ignored sliver of hate, rage and inflated ego exercised within a polluted bubble.

 

[Surf Nutz]

Um...

thanks?

Keep tiptoeing with extreme caution, there is another trigger switch behind the tulip in this minefield.

 

[Surf Nutz]

If Blake and co didn’t think Byfield was ready for 3C and eventually 1C why they didn’t they just sign RR, Duchense or Bjugstad?

They could have moved AI in another deal, kept Vilardi, kept or waived Kupari (who cares). Vilardi plus whatever UFA mentioned above would be the same price as Dubois.

I believe it came down to Vilardi's health issue(s) in relation to a historical look at games played per season, Projected forward.
The Kings do need healthy big , durable bodies more than guys like Vialrdi, Lizotee and Turcotee.
Regardless of what they bring during the course of the season and the playoffs, they will not be close to 100% or outright on LTIR, with increasing likelihood the later in the season and the playoffs you go.

 

[bland]

I do feel the need to push back on this statement a bit, and I know we've gone back and forth on this, so I'm sorry if I'm being a nuisance or repetitive. Just because someone misinterprets or misuses them doesn't negate the potential. We just haven't found the way to measure it yet.

You talk about momentum and how it can't be quantified - but if it's observable, there are ways to capture it even if it's not been done yet. We can see points of time where a team has a decrease of zone entries and exits. Shot differential changes. Differential of board battles. Where shots are taken. Hit differential. These are all measurable, but hasn't been compiled in a way to express momentum in a satisfactory way. And once something reasonable is constructed, I'd be interested in seeing the specific events that trigger momentum changes and the players who do it.

And just like anything else, if it's measurable, we can look at factors leading to changes in the numbers and apply some reasonable expectations of future outcomes. Analytics isn't supposed to be a crystal ball. It's closer to being a weatherman when all is said and done. And even then in comparison, hockey analytics is in its infancy.

As far as Dubois - if his (minimal) changes continue, there is reason to believe he will see an uptick in scoring. Is that good enough? Well, no, not to me. But I would be interested in seeing if PLD continues to be closer to the net. If his physical engagement improves. It's a combination of genuine curiosity but also looking for confirmation of whether I am actually seeing or if I'm affected by my own biases.

I completely agree that analytics are in their infancy - the problem is that very real decisions with very real ramifications are being made by these infants. I have no doubt whatsoever that there are employees of this organization that have some level of influence that are basing their suggestions on these findings.

I equate analytics in hockey to ghost hunting. You have a hunch something is there, a feeling, so you use any device at hand to quantify something you already believe and are trying to confirm - NOT learn.

An EMF meter shows fluctuations in electro magnetic energy. It doesn't equate that to a "ghost".

A registered failed zone exit that doesn't lead to a scoring chance against doesn't mean that the player made an error on par with one that does lead to a goal.

In this case, a Dubois shot on goal that leaves a rebound that could potentially lead to something - but doesn't - isn't necessarily a better thing than holding the puck and making a play. In the end, its a "so what?" stat.

Ultimately the goal of analytics here is to create a blueprint of how and what players should do to create something positive. Its to positively influence the game.

But ask yourself if you really want to watch that kind of game in the first place. Do we want to see robotic sequences of players thinking in terms of percentages or do we want to see players exhibiting read and react skill and the passion to challenge them? Do we want more Matt Roys than Quinn Hughes'?

Besides, the second somebody does something that works we know that there is a cottage industry of coaches working on methods to nullify it. Its a cyclical game, read and react at all levels. So the whole point of "perfection" is moot as the game will just keep evolving.

 

[chris kontos]

I believe it came down to Vilardi's health issue(s) in relation to a historical look at games played per season, Projected forward.
The Kings do need healthy big , durable bodies more than guys like Vialrdi, Lizotee and Turcotee.
Regardless of what they bring during the course of the season and the playoffs, they will not be close to 100% or outright on LTIR, with increasing likelihood the later in the season and the playoffs you go.

This doesnt make any sense

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't agree with @bland on statistics often but I agree with him here in that this article started with the conclusion and sought out the premises that worked to support it while ignoring all other evidence. It's not intentionally dishonest, I don't think, but it ends up looking that way.

 

[chris kontos]

Id like to think that the use of analytics in decision making of nhl franchises is more than confirmation bias.
And that a mix of analytics and the eye test combined result in decisions.
Tyrying to post on this website is f***ing impossible

 

[lumbergh]

The title suggests he's been successful and while the premises are objectively correct you and I both know that cherry picking a metric into "auston matthews does this, Brayden Point does this" is an incredibly rosy leap towards trying to make the guy look good.

I have no bone to pick with the author directly but it's a f***ing fluff piece that, in context, is more state media "see this guy is actually good" bullshit. The premises are 'wow look his scoring pace is temporarily actually over 50 points, his plus minus in the same small stretch is finally positive, he shoots close to the net and creates rebounds, and he's hitting people now'. That's success? Relatively to like, me playing in his spot, sure.

f*** off with the idea that we can't think for ourselves, by the way. We're just not all so easily swayed into believing all is well because some cherry picked metrics have improved. The author isn't 'wrong', but he IS selective and painting a particular picture.

how about this--in that same time period, he's got the cushiest zone starts of any regular forward on the team (nearly 60% ozone start %, not asked to PK or do defensive work) and it's not remotely close AND in some of the softest competition on the team and he's STILL in the bottom third of scoring chances % and halfway down the shot attempts and GF% somehow. That's impressive. It's Erik Karlsson's deployment and defensive results without much semblance of offense. Success!

Excuses aside, he was minus a million before the break, and he's on the plus side after the break. His goals against is way down since the break, his PDO is above water since the break. The key metrics that contribute to a team winning are better since the break for Dubois.

And it's not a small stretch. 26 games is roughly a third of a season.

You can do the same analyses for Anze Kopitar and see that he's been trending down since the break. Jordan Spence the same. If a guy goes on Hoven's site and writes an article about Jordan Spence struggling since the break, do people react poorly like this? No. It's only because it's an article not ripping Dubois to pieces. Expectations are out of whack for him, so an article that says he's been okay cannot possibly be correct.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Kovy had 34 points in 64 games in his first season. So, objectively, Pierre has outperformed Rob’s previous big splash. Homers should take solace that the size of Rob’s current turd massively outweighs his previous movements.

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Excuses aside, he was minus a million before the break, and he's on the plus side after the break. His goals against is way down since the break, his PDO is above water since the break. The key metrics that contribute to a team winning are better since the break for Dubois.

And it's not a small stretch. 26 games is roughly a third of a season.

You can do the same analyses for Anze Kopitar and see that he's been trending down since the break. Jordan Spence the same. If a guy goes on Hoven's site and writes an article about Jordan Spence struggling since the break, do people react poorly like this? No. It's only because it's an article not ripping Dubois to pieces. Expectations are out of whack for him, so an article that says he's been okay cannot possibly be correct.

Expectations for Dubois are out of whack? He was brought in to be a 70 point player there is no arguing he has shit the bed!

 

[bland]

Excuses aside, he was minus a million before the break, and he's on the plus side after the break. His goals against is way down since the break, his PDO is above water since the break. The key metrics that contribute to a team winning are better since the break for Dubois.

And it's not a small stretch. 26 games is roughly a third of a season.

You can do the same analyses for Anze Kopitar and see that he's been trending down since the break. Jordan Spence the same. If a guy goes on Hoven's site and writes an article about Jordan Spence struggling since the break, do people react poorly like this? No. It's only because it's an article not ripping Dubois to pieces. Expectations are out of whack for him, so an article that says he's been okay cannot possibly be correct.

Expectations for a player getting paid $64 million that cost Vilardi, Iafallo, Kupari and Durzi, as well as other ancillary cap-clearing moves, are "out of whack?"

The organization started the year fellating itself with "contender" aspirations largely based on this singular acquisition.

The fact that he is "doing better" doesn't equate to "doing well". It is an assumption that better results are inevitable. And that's what that article is trying to achieve - the use of statistical analysis to not prove but rather confirm that there is less of a problem that is readily apparent.

It smacks of propaganda.

 

[DoktorJeep]

Rob Blake’s master plan was concocted in the summer of 2023. The lynchpin was handing Pierre $9M before game 83.

According to the Mayor, that decision can’t be judged any time sooner before game 1 of the playoffs. So, we’ve got at least 4 games to gather evidence before anyone is allowed to consider any alternatives to the master plan.

 

[johnjm22]

Since the break his baseline performance has been better.

After a nice stretch coming out of the break, his play has trended down.

He looks like shit to me.

 

[Steve Zissou]

Hopefully Phil smacks the shit out of him and says. “He’s a stripper he just wants your money and child support.”

"This C stands for cash money, baby!"

 

[BigKing]

Regarding moving Vilardi for PLD, I've been on the record that Blake wanted no part of a decent sized Vilardi extension because he was scared to death of his injury history. He'd take the big body, 50-60 point guy that plays 70+ games each year v. the fragile guy, warts and all.

Vilardi can, at most, play 47 games this year. Problem is he still has only five fewer points and one more goal than PLD while PLD has played in 34 (!) more games.

I understand why he did it, but he did it because PLD was the guy available. It could have been any similar player skill wise and he would have done it. With PLD though, you're trading for a guy with the worst rep in the league when it comes to "try" and you hand him the biggest contract he's ever going to get in this league, meaning he doesn't have to try anymore and he is in a market where he can get away with playing like this.

 

[chris kontos]

Id like to think that the use of analytics in decision making of nhl franchises is more than confirmation bias.
And that a mix of analytics and the eye test combined result in decisions.
Tyrying to post on this website is f***ing impossible

I might have trouble posting for now, but youll be f***ed up forever