Proposal: Dubois to Habs

[Bouboumaster]

"We will just wait and get him for free."

I honestly can't remember the last time I heard that and it came true.

Tavares?

 

[Draft]

In my mind, this is where we need to get to with a deal between WPG and MTL:

1) Needs to be an offseason trade
- Doesn't risk the Jets playoff hopes or MTL tanking
- No concern over cap management for either team

2) Needs to appreciate that he's currently Jets property
- Jets have control over where he goes for another year
- Jets do not have the same control as if he was RFA for multiple years or signed to a long term contract
- For MTL, there is significant risk in "waiting until he's UFA". This deal is an attempt to assure a contract and hopefully one that isn't huge FA money

3) Needs to recognize that the player has some agency or control in their contract and, by extension, their value
- There are clear indications, and not just unfounded rumours, that this player wants to be in MTL
- Dubois has yet to have a smooth contract negotiation and he's shown a willingness to hold out
- Dubois can go wherever he wants in a year and half (potentially neither the Jets or Habs)
- Other teams in the NHL are aware and wary of this context

I really think the player will dictate this trade - wherever that trade might be to. Montreal wants to assure a contract. Jets want to recoup assets. This will likely be an uncomfortable negotiation for all sides and I don't think it's wise for the Jets to hold onto him past this year. I think the best framework for a trade is somewhere along the lines of rental+. MTL beats the best one-year rental offer and hopes they can sign him long term.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Tavares?

Maybe but the Leafs said that about everybody. Stamkos was supposed to go there. I think Doughty was as well.

 

[Hunter368]

In my mind, this is where we need to get to with a deal between WPG and MTL:

1) Needs to be an offseason trade
- Doesn't risk the Jets playoff hopes or MTL tanking
- No concern over cap management for either team

2) Needs to appreciate that he's currently Jets property
- Jets have control over where he goes for another year
- Jets do not have the same control as if he was RFA for multiple years or signed to a long term contract
- For MTL, there is significant risk in "waiting until he's UFA". This deal is an attempt to assure a contract and hopefully one that isn't huge FA money

3) Needs to recognize that the player has some agency or control in their contract and, by extension, their value
- There are clear indications, and not just unfounded rumours, that this player wants to be in MTL
- Dubois has yet to have a smooth contract negotiation and he's shown a willingness to hold out
- Dubois can go wherever he wants in a year and half (potentially neither the Jets or Habs)
- Other teams in the NHL are aware and wary of this context

I really think the player will dictate this trade - wherever that trade might be to. Montreal wants to assure a contract. Jets want to recoup assets. This will likely be an uncomfortable negotiation for all sides and I don't think it's wise for the Jets to hold onto him past this year. I think the best framework for a trade is somewhere along the lines of rental+. MTL beats the best one-year rental offer and hopes they can sign him long term.

Most of what you said here I agree with, couple things i would add:

- Chevy has shown he has no problem letting players sit out, aka Trouba did just that and Chevy refused to blink or be pressured. If PLD tried holding out he would lose that gamble, Chevy won't blink and thats not just opinion its fact bc he's proven that already. PLD holding out is a false risk.

- PLD is going to sign a huge deal, with Jets or Habs or someone else, dreams by fans of team friendly deals is largely myth specifically with younger players. Yes vets on their last year often sign cheap deals in hope of a cup win, but thats not the case with PLD. Expect PLD in 1.5 years, cap going up to be north of 8 million per year or very close to it.

- Jets can trade him to any team, PLD has zero control of that. PLD can control if he extends with his new team yes, but he has no control of where he is traded to. Chevy also has the ability to give other teams access to PLD agent to discuss contract before any trade happens, this opens the situation of PLD will know what other teams are willing to pay him vs what the Habs might pay him.......money very often controls where a player signs, especially if its to a team with lower taxes and warm beaches......neither of which the Habs have. Will he end up a Habs? No clue, I'm just saying there will be a lot of offers to the Jets on him and PLD will have a lot of money waived in front of his eyes to consider. Plus the Jets have no cap issues so they can take roster players back in a trade freeing up cap space for any team to sign him.

- I agree that PLD will be extended long term by the Jets this summer or he will be traded to the highest bidder.

- High end players as rentals, uncommon they reach that far before signed but lets assume it happens with PLD, traded at the TDL near the end of their last year of control are traded for mid to late 1st, B level prospect and mid ranged pick/C level prospect as rough value. What your suggesting is the Habs trading for him not at the TDL and getting his services for a few weeks but trading for him this summer and getting his services for an entire year........so that would mean the return with be higher then the TDL return I listed above. To-date I haven't seen many, if any Habs fans offering a deal that has that kind of offer (TDL return plus).........everything Ive seen has been less than that.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Tavares

The more I think about this one, the comparison wasn't there.

Him signing in Toronto was pretty unexpected.

There was very little buzz around that (way less than Stamkos) and the Islanders were coming off a good year. There was way more talk about him singing with the Isles than there was him going to Toronto.

In this case here, Montreal fans seem to be under the impression that it's 100% a done deal that he goes there without a trade.

 

[Chose]

Nobody? Have you read all the PLD threads on this board since last season (I have b/c I mod all these trade board threads) and how many Habs fans have said "we'll just sign him for free in two years"........a lot of them, that sure sounds like they are pretty confident of it happening. I never said all Habs fans have said that, but many have said that go search those threads and this one if you like to see for yourself. Of course, fans and keyboard GM's have no clue what will happen, none of us do. PLD won't be traded during this season, the Jets are one of the top teams in the NHL season to date.......but this won't go into next season IMO, he will be extended long term by the Jets this summer or traded to the highest bidder & no doubt Chevy will be happy to give teams access to his agent to discuss contracts beforehand bc it only helps the Jets if he does. Then we will all see how this unfolds and where he ends up if traded.

The poster you are replying to did not say that fans haven't been saying this, he is saying that those are not assumptions, they are factual because his agent came out publicly about it, and the player has the control to make it happen, and acted accordindly by signing his qualifying offer.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

MTL would be making a big mistake adding Dubois unless he signs at a value that reflects what he actually is - a uni-dimensional 60ish point scorer. MTL has good youth coming up... if adding Dubois means they have to move one of them, they will regret doing so. Good player but nothing special.

 

[Hunter368]

The poster you are replying to did not say that fans haven't been saying this, he is saying that those are not assumptions, they are factual because his agent came out publicly about it, and the player has the control to make it happen, and acted accordindly by signing his qualifying offer.

Again we see this every year as UFA's where fans assume a player is going to sign with a specific team due to various reasons (family, born in the city, public comments, etc) and yet players sign else where. To be clear, PLD & his agent never stated PLD would only sign with the Habs, the closest thing either said was no doubt PLD would love to play for the Habs one day (agent said that). Players often have that desire to play for a specific team or with a specific player (brother or idol or best friend) they know and often it never happens. Anyone assuming a trade or UFA signing to the Habs that its a lock is setting themselves up for "potential" disappointment. He may end up a Jet, Hab or some other team, none of us know, heck PLD doesn't even know for sure if that will happen at this stage I suspect. PLD is going to tempted by many teams offers if Chevy makes him available this summer (you know Chevy will give teams access to PLD agent to make offers bc it helps the Jets), then his desire to play for the habs will be tested big time. Time will tell where he extends

 

[Chose]

Again we see this every year as UFA's where fans assume a player is going to sign with a specific team due to various reasons (family, born in the city, public comments, etc) and yet players sign else where. To be clear, PLD & his agent never stated PLD would only sign with the Habs, the closest thing either said was no doubt PLD would love to play for the Habs one day (agent said that). Players often have that desire to play for a specific team or with a specific player (brother or idol or best friend) they know and often it never happens. Anyone assuming a trade or UFA signing to the Habs that its a lock is setting themselves up for "potential" disappointment. He may end up a Jet, Hab or some other team, none of us know, heck PLD doesn't even know for sure if that will happen at this stage I suspect. PLD is going to tempted by many teams offers if Chevy makes him available this summer (you know Chevy will give teams access to PLD agent to make offers bc it helps the Jets), then his desire to play for the habs will be tested big time. Time will tell where he extends

I agree, it is not 100% sure. But it wasn't a feel good article by media, it felt like Brisson took advantage of him being unsigned to put it out there. He wasn't negociating or anything, they were to sign the qualifying offer. It seems very different from Huberdeau's comment to a journalist asking a few years ago.

While it is not 100%, I am optimist, based on what is known, that the habs have good chances to land him when he is UFA. And I am ready to wait and risk it. Not going to offer 2 first round picks to have him now, there is no point to do it. Trade him elsewhere if you can.

Of course, he can have a stay in Colorado as a rental in the meantime, I don't care really. But I am confident in those chances...

And I don't think fans have been talking about a home team discount. We can pay him what he is worth.
He would be an awesome complement to Suzuki as a top6 center, now that Dach finds his play at the wing and knowing his woes at the dot.

 

[bernmeister]

Disgusting trade

Fine.
We'll keep our existing assets and attempt some other work around as needed to generate cap for our young core. Extremely tight, but prob barely do-able.

If it is (apparently) what you want, you can take the long route to returning to contender status.

You went through all of that, and it didn't occur to you that Winnipeg has no interest in acquiring Anderson? Start with Montreal's 1st round pick in this years draft. If you don't want to part with it, roll the dice and see if he comes over as a UFA, assuming Winnipeg hasn't traded him to a team that's already talked him into a long term deal...

It occured to me they did not want Anderson at the full 5.5 and term.
I specified he would be retained 2x, first by MON at half and then again by NY so his final cap hit was 2.
I repeat a whopping 2.
Anderson at 2 has signif value
is immediately useful for current Jet situation as a quality F
and can be flipped as a rental easily at that # when time is right.

As to MON's 1st pick I considered it from everyone's position, and obv everyone wants the max return for the least payment. No give, by anyone, anywhere.
Mon 1st this yr is possible lottery, possible 1OA.
IF IF IF PLD had term and a good #, then maybe that is a discussion.
If he is buh bye once his team control is extinguished, I believe that is a max of 2 yrs.
Mon is not paying 2022 1st for only 2 yrs expediting him coming.

 

[jellybeans]

Do you really think whatever team he is on will sign him to a 1 year contract taking him to UFA. I highly doubt that but hey you keep your fantasy alive

Do you really think whatever team he is on will sign him to a 1 year contract taking him to UFA. I highly doubt that but hey you keep your fantasy alive.

If Dubois really wants to play for the Habs its exactly what's going to happen but of course it could still happen through a trade.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I agree, it is not 100% sure. But it wasn't a feel good article by media, it felt like Brisson took advantage of him being unsigned to put it out there. He wasn't negociating or anything, they were to sign the qualifying offer. It seems very different from Huberdeau's comment to a journalist asking a few years ago.

While it is not 100%, I am optimist, based on what is known, that the habs have good chances to land him when he is UFA. And I am ready to wait and risk it. Not going to offer 2 first round picks to have him now, there is no point to do it. Trade him elsewhere if you can.

Of course, he can have a stay in Colorado as a rental in the meantime, I don't care really. But I am confident in those chances...

And I don't think fans have been talking about a home team discount. We can pay him what he is worth.
He would be an awesome complemet to Suzuki as a top6 center, now that Dach finds his play at the wing and knowing his woes at the dot.

And I don’t think most jets fans have a problem with him as a hab if we can’t keep him, as long as we get fair value.

 

[bernmeister]

Damn ! Can you do proposals that don't necessitate half the team to be traded ? This would never happen...

In this particular case there are no shortcuts.
bread may consider MON but only under certain circumstances.
Rangers only go through these gyrations to Habs benefit if there is enuf in it for them.
Panarin has full nmc, so it is what I laid out or nothing.

 

[General Fanager]

Maybe but the Leafs said that about everybody. Stamkos was supposed to go there. I think Doughty was as well.

Who cares.

If they take their shot and he goes elsewhere then fine, at least The Habs didn't waste a bunch of good assets for him to watch him walk away.

 

[Chose]

In this particular case there are no shortcuts.
bread may consider MON but only under certain circumstances.
Rangers only go through these gyrations to Habs benefit if there is enuf in it for them.
Panarin has full nmc, so it is what I laid out or nothing.

We don't really care about Panarin, too old for our timeline. Specially if it is at the expense of Suzuki, Slaf & Ghule lol. I think this bread obsession to the Habs is only a Bernmeister thing...

 

[bernmeister]

Jets will pass on a young LD where they are already jammed up, moving up a few spots in the draft and (LMAO) Andersson.

There‘s nothing here for the Jets.

Jones is lefty shot but plays either side.
2 late 1sts + Anderson at 2 per + Jones is a good offer for a max of 2 yrs of PLD which diminishes over time

I agree Jets are doing surprisingly well and should consider keeping for now, but at some pt the ? is IF you can not extend, will you be obstinate and wind up w/a nothing Tavares return?

 

[Chose]

Jones is lefty shot but plays either side.
2 late 1sts + Anderson at 2 per + Jones is a good offer for a max of 2 yrs of PLD which diminishes over time

I agree Jets are doing surprisingly well and should consider keeping for now, but at some pt the ? is IF you can not extend, will you be obstinate and wind up w/a nothing Tavares return?

They will trade him before the draft this summer, this is the strongest possibility. And I would keep him too this year considering their good season if were them. No rush there.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Jones is lefty shot but plays either side.
2 late 1sts + Anderson at 2 per + Jones is a good offer for a max of 2 yrs of PLD which diminishes over time

I agree Jets are doing surprisingly well and should consider keeping for now, but at some pt the ? is IF you can not extend, will you be obstinate and wind up w/a nothing Tavares return?

I don’t see need for Jones with Heinola plus our d corp is doing pretty well. 2 late firsts vs a 2 year of Dubois and Anderson who is not a need. It’s not like we are in a position we need to look for players to flip at tdl.

 

[bernmeister]

Most of what you said here I agree with, couple things i would add:

- Chevy has shown he has no problem letting players sit out, aka Trouba did just that and Chevy refused to blink or be pressured. If PLD tried holding out he would lose that gamble, Chevy won't blink and thats not just opinion its fact bc he's proven that already. PLD holding out is a false risk.

- PLD is going to sign a huge deal, with Jets or Habs or someone else, dreams by fans of team friendly deals is largely myth specifically with younger players. Yes vets on their last year often sign cheap deals in hope of a cup win, but thats not the case with PLD. Expect PLD in 1.5 years, cap going up to be north of 8 million per year or very close to it.

- Jets can trade him to any team, PLD has zero control of that. PLD can control if he extends with his new team yes, but he has no control of where he is traded to. Chevy also has the ability to give other teams access to PLD agent to discuss contract before any trade happens, this opens the situation of PLD will know what other teams are willing to pay him vs what the Habs might pay him.......money very often controls where a player signs, especially if its to a team with lower taxes and warm beaches......neither of which the Habs have. Will he end up a Habs? No clue, I'm just saying there will be a lot of offers to the Jets on him and PLD will have a lot of money waived in front of his eyes to consider. Plus the Jets have no cap issues so they can take roster players back in a trade freeing up cap space for any team to sign him.

- I agree that PLD will be extended long term by the Jets this summer or he will be traded to the highest bidder.

- High end players as rentals, uncommon they reach that far before signed but lets assume it happens with PLD, traded at the TDL near the end of their last year of control are traded for mid to late 1st, B level prospect and mid ranged pick/C level prospect as rough value. What your suggesting is the Habs trading for him not at the TDL and getting his services for a few weeks but trading for him this summer and getting his services for an entire year........so that would mean the return with be higher then the TDL return I listed above. To-date I haven't seen many, if any Habs fans offering a deal that has that kind of offer (TDL return plus).........everything Ive seen has been less than that.

I generally agree.
As to player not giving team too much of a break, yes, they are not gonna work for cheap and bend over.
And Habs will have to find some measure of accommodation as to salary on HIS terms.

But that said, while he may use some vaseline w/Habs, he will bend over whoever when he gets first top top $ paycheck

 

[Hunter368]

I agree, it is not 100% sure. But it wasn't a feel good article by media, it felt like Brisson took advantage of him being unsigned to put it out there. He wasn't negociating or anything, they were to sign the qualifying offer. It seems very different from Huberdeau's comment to a journalist asking a few years ago.

While it is not 100%, I am optimist, based on what is known, that the habs have good chances to land him when he is UFA. And I am ready to wait and risk it. Not going to offer 2 first round picks to have him now, there is no point to do it. Trade him elsewhere if you can.

Of course, he can have a stay in Colorado as a rental in the meantime, I don't care really. But I am confident in those chances...

And I don't think fans have been talking about a home team discount. We can pay him what he is worth.
He would be an awesome complement to Suzuki as a top6 center, now that Dach finds his play at the wing and knowing his woes at the dot.

I agree with most of your post and I suspect the Habs are the most likely where he eventually signs long term. There is a good chance he might be traded to a third team before ending up with the Habs once he's a UFA, to your point above. You're not offering two 1st rd picks, but most Jets fans aren't asking for the moon either. As is the case in many of these threads, fans often offer trade returns or demands that doesn't fit the other teams needs. I think there is room for a trade that fits both teams (not fans) needs but we don't know what either GM's bottom line is. Any PLD trade could also include a bigger trade/more pieces going to both ways, which could help fill the needs of both teams.

Either way nothing is happening this season, nothing will happen till the summer, bc the Jets are currently a top team in the NHL and playing very good hockey (since Oct 30th the best GAA in the NHL).

 

[CDN24]

There may be a fit for a trade there. A trade if it happens probably happens at this years draft. Jets will not trade him at deadline this year if competitive. If they have to trade him- he makes it clear he won't resign then they take too much injury risk to wait until next years deadline.

Before the draft and after lottery we will know where Mtl's various 1st rounders are (their pick, the Fla one, and any potential one they get by moving assets at this years deadline) Winnipeg can also let Dubois negotiate with Montreal in advance of a trade. I don't think Mtl or anyone will pay as much unless they have some certainty around what it will cost to extend him.

More likely to happen if Mtl is drafting outside the top 8. Mtl needs a top 6 centre- if they have a pick in the top 5 2023- they will just draft one. If they are picking 10+ then maybe PLD is a better option. What would it cost? Not sure , what would Montreal have to offer?

at least two 2023 1st rounders (theirs and FLA)
future years 1st ( theirs and that Calgary one with all the conditions so far)
established players under contract (Dvorak anderson etc)
High end prospects like Beck, Mesar, Barron, mailloux, Farrel Hutson, Tuch Mysak etc.

So if PLD will extend at Suzuki like money - 8 years 8M max AAV. Then I can see MTL giving

A 2023 1st (theirs or FLA)
A player under contract (Dvorak as it addresses Jets needs at centre)
A D prospect - maybe Barron and maybe a Forward prospect like Farrell

 

[Chose]

I agree with most of your post and I suspect the Habs are the most likely where he eventually signs long term. There is a good chance he might be traded to a third team before ending up with the Habs once he's a UFA, to your point above. You're not offering two 1st rd picks, but most Jets fans aren't asking for the moon either. As is the case in many of these threads, fans often offer trade returns or demands that doesn't fit the other teams needs. I think there is room for a trade that fits both teams (not fans) needs but we don't know what either GM's bottom line is. Any PLD trade could also include a bigger trade/more pieces going to both ways, which could help fill the needs of both teams.

Either way nothing is happening this season, nothing will happen till the summer, bc the Jets are currently a top team in the NHL and playing very good hockey (since Oct 30th the best GAA in the NHL).

What would you think is a fair return this summer from the Habs ?
While the Jets WILL entertain discussions with other teams as a rental, the Habs will surely try again. Considering everything, it would be the perfect time to do it.
What woud be the Jets' need(s) ?

 

[bernmeister]

I don’t see need for Jones with Heinola plus our d corp is doing pretty well. 2 late firsts vs a 2 year of Dubois and Anderson who is not a need. It’s not like we are in a position we need to look for players to flip at tdl.

fair enuf as to Jones = surplus for you right now but does not mean he is without value.
Jones projects to be a SUPER, EXTREMELY lite version of Fox.
He is superfluous for b'c we have actual Fox and other LDs as well as full right side atm.

Only reason to make this deal is if Jets feel long term interests are served.
I don't believe anyone will pay more than 2 late 1sts Andy AT 2 + Jones
and the going rate market price will decline over time.

As to looking to flip players at deadline, why not deal some surplus for futures?

 

[BLNY]

So here's a template of a trade; pieces could be added or taken out if needed.

Montreal get:

- Pierre-Luc Dubois


Winnipeg get:

- 2024 1st (top 5 or 10 protected)
- Monahan or Evans
- Two choices between Roy/Barron/Kidney



Why Montreal do this:

Slafkovsky - PLD - Anderson is sexy AF as a 2nd line. Our team is young, our prospect bank is full and we're having a bunch of picks yet again this year. We can spend some.



Why Winnipeg do this:

Dubois made it pretty clear that he wants out. If Winnipeg hold on to him for too long, they'll get nothing. This is a chance to get something.
Monahan/Evans is a band-aid, both are 3rd line center (Monahan can play on 2nd but ideally he's on 3rd line duty).
A 1st is always nice
Roy, Barron and Kidney are solid prospects.

No reason for Jets to accept this.

No reason for Montreal to trade for him in-season. Ride out the year with patience. If there's interest from Montreal, ask to speak to the player over the summer. Facilitate a sign and trade.

 

[Draft]

Most of what you said here I agree with, couple things i would add:

- Chevy has shown he has no problem letting players sit out, aka Trouba did just that and Chevy refused to blink or be pressured. If PLD tried holding out he would lose that gamble, Chevy won't blink and thats not just opinion its fact bc he's proven that already. PLD holding out is a false risk.

- PLD is going to sign a huge deal, with Jets or Habs or someone else, dreams by fans of team friendly deals is largely myth specifically with younger players. Yes vets on their last year often sign cheap deals in hope of a cup win, but thats not the case with PLD. Expect PLD in 1.5 years, cap going up to be north of 8 million per year or very close to it.

- Jets can trade him to any team, PLD has zero control of that. PLD can control if he extends with his new team yes, but he has no control of where he is traded to. Chevy also has the ability to give other teams access to PLD agent to discuss contract before any trade happens, this opens the situation of PLD will know what other teams are willing to pay him vs what the Habs might pay him.......money very often controls where a player signs, especially if its to a team with lower taxes and warm beaches......neither of which the Habs have. Will he end up a Habs? No clue, I'm just saying there will be a lot of offers to the Jets on him and PLD will have a lot of money waived in front of his eyes to consider. Plus the Jets have no cap issues so they can take roster players back in a trade freeing up cap space for any team to sign him.

- I agree that PLD will be extended long term by the Jets this summer or he will be traded to the highest bidder.

- High end players as rentals, uncommon they reach that far before signed but lets assume it happens with PLD, traded at the TDL near the end of their last year of control are traded for mid to late 1st, B level prospect and mid ranged pick/C level prospect as rough value. What your suggesting is the Habs trading for him not at the TDL and getting his services for a few weeks but trading for him this summer and getting his services for an entire year........so that would mean the return with be higher then the TDL return I listed above. To-date I haven't seen many, if any Habs fans offering a deal that has that kind of offer (TDL return plus).........everything Ive seen has been less than that.

Agreed on these points. I think we have a pretty good framework for a deal (rental+) that could work for both MTL and WPG. I don't think MTL would want to risk letting him get to UFA just as much as WPG doesn't want to push this situation past this offseason. Nailing down the particulars of what the "+" is in rental+ might be tricky, but I think we can get there.

What do WPG fans see as short and mid-term needs for the club? I'm guessing top-6 C, RD, and middle-6 depth. Younger players preferred.