Rumor: Dreger: Belief that Mason McTavish is going to be traded

[seanlinden]

Maccelli isn't nearly as valuable as Cowan though, so I think Ducks say no.

I would suggest replacing Cowan with Ben Danford if you prefer, but that's just another right-handed D prospect that doesn't have top-pairing potential. The Ducks have 3 or 4 of those kids all coming up very very soon and will all need waivers by next summer.

Obviously not, I don't think McTavish carries Cowan + Carlo + 1st Round Pick type value.

While I am supremely confident that the consensus between Maccelli vs McTavish would be that McTavish is more valuable; when you look at their stat lines you've got 2 players of similar experience, similar overall production (McTavish more goals, Maccelli more assists), and similar warts (not great defensive/ 2-way players, not developing as one woudl have hoped from a couple years ago).

The Leafs acquired Maccelli for a 3rd round pick a year ago. Yes, McTavish has upside as a centre, yes, McTavish has a bigger frame; yes, McTavish was a 3rd overall pick and Maccelli was a 4th rounder, but based on their roughly 300 game sample size, I don't think the gap in their 2 respective values is from a 3rd round pick to Cowan+Carlo+1st.

The thing is, trades, especially when you're talking about offseason (or any time other than the deadline), aren't about matching value, they're about finding pieces that fit into what your team needs to be successful.

Anaheim doesn't really need a 9th overall pick. Sure it's a nice to have, but just like Ottawa, they don't really want it. Anaheim doesn't even really need a guy like Easton Cowan. What they need is a right shot defenceman with some size.

If they're losing McTavish, then yes, they'll probably want somebody who can bring some secondary offence.

 

[HavocWreaker]

I dont think Leafs should push it we are lacking assests. I think we have them, I just dont think we use them. Especially not in a potential bidding war. I actally like McTavish and Leafs have a long history of trading with the Ducks as well, shame.

 

[quacktastic93]

I don't think he's bad and I honestly don't know the player very well. Just based on his stats, I'll be surprised if he nets a top 10 pick though.

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

...calling McTavish a Power Forward is the equivalent of calling Sloth Tkachuk a Mensa member...

 

[seanlinden]

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

One of the challenges with high draft picks, is the reason that they're drafted high -- they're better than everyone else.

There's 2 "reasons" why they're better. One is if they are just that good (think McDavid), the other is if they're just way ahead in their development relative to their peers.

Luke Schenn jumps out as the most obvious example of this... a guy that was "the Human Eraser" in junior; was completely dominant. However, the reason he was dominant wasn't because he had so much more talent then everyone else. It was because he was 6'2, 220 full of muscle, playing against kids who were well under 180. The guy has managed an incredible career, but when you draft a defenceman 5th overall, you kind of hope he becomes a true top pair guy. Calling Luke Schenn a #4 defenceman at any point was probably a little generous to him.

Yes, power forward take longer, it was in his 6th season that Lawson Crouse finally broke out for 20 goals, but they're different kind of players. McTavish isn't really a power forward, and doesn't have a power forward frame these days. He's 6'1; not 6'4.

Drafting power forwards is admittedly fraught with issues - a 16 year old turns into a power forward becasue they have a growth spurt earlier than their contemporaries. That reliance on strength/power makes them an incredibly dominant junior player; which can get in the way of them learning how to win when you're not the biggest guy on the ice. Not everyone can learn that at the NHL level.

You also want to see some element of trajectory/progression; and that hasn't really been the case for him.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he be flipped for pennies on the dollar, but it's been 4 full seasons now and a number of players have seized opportunties over him. It may be time to try and figure out how to use his perceived upside to help the team get something else in return.

 

[FiveTacos]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he be flipped for pennies on the dollar, but it's been 4 full seasons now and a number of players have seized opportunties over him. It may be time to try and figure out how to use his perceived upside to help the team get something else in return.

You make it sound like it was more than just one rough season. Exactly one year ago he finished the season as the Ducks' best forward over the 2nd half. And he'd been the Ducks' best young forward the year before as well. This was the first season he didn't make progress.

If you're gonna quickly move on from every promising young player who has a year where they stumble, you'd miss out on a hell of a lot of players who didn't put it together until their mid 20's.

And who exactly has seized opportunities over him? If the goal is to fill the 2C spot long term, he's still their highest likelihood candidate. It isn't gonna be Poehling, and McQueen we haven't even seen play a single NHL game yet. Granlund is only a stopgap. Gauthier they seem to want at wing.

 

[mphmiles]

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

I'm not saying what they should or shouldn't do, but FWIW this is the sunk cost fallacy. Back around 2021 The Rangers could have flipped Kaapo Kakko for a haul. They hung onto him, his value kept decreasing, and eventually they had to trade him for a 3rd, a 6th, and a mediocre defenseman.

Who knows how MacTavish's career plays out, but point being, there's risk in holding onto a depreciating asset too- not just in moving one out. Montreal ended up looking pretty good letting Kotkaniemi walk out the door as well.

 

[lwvs84]

Obviously not, I don't think McTavish carries Cowan + Carlo + 1st Round Pick type value.

While I am supremely confident that the consensus between Maccelli vs McTavish would be that McTavish is more valuable; when you look at their stat lines you've got 2 players of similar experience, similar overall production (McTavish more goals, Maccelli more assists), and similar warts (not great defensive/ 2-way players, not developing as one woudl have hoped from a couple years ago).

The Leafs acquired Maccelli for a 3rd round pick a year ago. Yes, McTavish has upside as a centre, yes, McTavish has a bigger frame; yes, McTavish was a 3rd overall pick and Maccelli was a 4th rounder, but based on their roughly 300 game sample size, I don't think the gap in their 2 respective values is from a 3rd round pick to Cowan+Carlo+1st.

The thing is, trades, especially when you're talking about offseason (or any time other than the deadline), aren't about matching value, they're about finding pieces that fit into what your team needs to be successful.

Anaheim doesn't really need a 9th overall pick. Sure it's a nice to have, but just like Ottawa, they don't really want it. Anaheim doesn't even really need a guy like Easton Cowan. What they need is a right shot defenceman with some size.

If they're losing McTavish, then yes, they'll probably want somebody who can bring some secondary offence.

That trade likely doesn't work. Carlo is a year from UFA and averaged 5th most toi for a bottom 5 team in the NHL? Maccelli was really good his first 2 years but not so much the last 2. McTavish has had one down year after a contract hold out (Toronto fans saw the same thing with Nylander several years ago). A late 1st (most likely 26+) has a higher chance of busting than being a good player. Ducks would be better off playing Moore on the 2nd pair and hoping McTavish bounces back than a year of Carlo and downgrading to Maccelli.

Carlo might be useful in a smaller deal, but not for McTavish. The Ducks need to package some players because there are too many depth guys as is, no need to add more. Currently, the lines will look something like:
Kreider Carlsson Gauthier
Granlund McTavish Sennecke
Killorn Poehling Vatrano
(Terry on IR until around December, then slots in top line probably)

LaCombe ???
Mintyukov Moore
2 of Zellweger/Hinds/Helleson/Luneau

If Ducks move McTavish, it needs to be him and 1 or 2 of the young D (not LaCombe or Mintyukov) for a vet that can play with LaCombe. Doesn't need to be a star player, Manson went for a 2nd and Helleson... Ducks just need a move like that for that level of player.

 

[FiveTacos]

I'm not saying what they should or shouldn't do, but FWIW this is the sunk cost fallacy. Back around 2021 The Rangers could have flipped Kaapo Kakko for a haul. They hung onto him, his value kept decreasing, and eventually they had to trade him for a 3rd, a 6th, and a mediocre defenseman.

Who knows how MacTavish's career plays out, but point being, there's risk in holding onto a depreciating asset too- not just in moving one out. Montreal ended up looking pretty good letting Kotkaniemi walk out the door as well.

KK even in his best seasons never showed the kind of offensive upside McTavish has. Again, McTavish has had multiple *multi-month* stretches of roughly ppg production. Kakko can't even do it for one single month.

Kotkaniemi was a revenge OS ... by no means had he shown much in the way of being an impact player. They let him walk out the door because the offer sheet was patently ridiculous for what he was.

You're acting like McTavish has been some massive disappointment for his entire career like those other two. Which is not the case.

 

[mphmiles]

KK even in his best seasons never showed the kind of offensive upside McTavish has. Again, McTavish has had multiple *multi-month* stretches of roughly ppg production. Kakko can't even do it for one single month.

Kotkaniemi was a revenge OS ... by no means had he shown much in the way of being an impact player. They let him walk out the door because the offer sheet was patently ridiculous for what he was.

You're acting like McTavish has been some massive disappointment for his entire career like those other two. Which is not the case.

I'm doing no such thing. My point was that just because players are still young does not mean that they cannot depreciate in value, quickly- and that you can pay the price for holding onto them for too long, just the same as you can if you ship them out too early.

I'm making no prediction about how his career plays out- I'm explaining why holding onto him just because he has a perceived upside he may or may not reach is a logical fallacy.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Would make sense for MTL, a young enough C that can grow with their group

 

[quacktastic93]

I agree with most

One of the challenges with high draft picks, is the reason that they're drafted high -- they're better than everyone else.

There's 2 "reasons" why they're better. One is if they are just that good (think McDavid), the other is if they're just way ahead in their development relative to their peers.

Luke Schenn jumps out as the most obvious example of this... a guy that was "the Human Eraser" in junior; was completely dominant. However, the reason he was dominant wasn't because he had so much more talent then everyone else. It was because he was 6'2, 220 full of muscle, playing against kids who were well under 180. The guy has managed an incredible career, but when you draft a defenceman 5th overall, you kind of hope he becomes a true top pair guy. Calling Luke Schenn a #4 defenceman at any point was probably a little generous to him.

Yes, power forward take longer, it was in his 6th season that Lawson Crouse finally broke out for 20 goals, but they're different kind of players. McTavish isn't really a power forward, and doesn't have a power forward frame these days. He's 6'1; not 6'4.

Drafting power forwards is admittedly fraught with issues - a 16 year old turns into a power forward becasue they have a growth spurt earlier than their contemporaries. That reliance on strength/power makes them an incredibly dominant junior player; which can get in the way of them learning how to win when you're not the biggest guy on the ice. Not everyone can learn that at the NHL level.

You also want to see some element of trajectory/progression; and that hasn't really been the case for him.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he be flipped for pennies on the dollar, but it's been 4 full seasons now and a number of players have seized opportunties over him. It may be time to try and figure out how to use his perceived upside to help the team get something else in return

I agree wirh

One of the challenges with high draft picks, is the reason that they're drafted high -- they're better than everyone else.

There's 2 "reasons" why they're better. One is if they are just that good (think McDavid), the other is if they're just way ahead in their development relative to their peers.

Luke Schenn jumps out as the most obvious example of this... a guy that was "the Human Eraser" in junior; was completely dominant. However, the reason he was dominant wasn't because he had so much more talent then everyone else. It was because he was 6'2, 220 full of muscle, playing against kids who were well under 180. The guy has managed an incredible career, but when you draft a defenceman 5th overall, you kind of hope he becomes a true top pair guy. Calling Luke Schenn a #4 defenceman at any point was probably a little generous to him.

Yes, power forward take longer, it was in his 6th season that Lawson Crouse finally broke out for 20 goals, but they're different kind of players. McTavish isn't really a power forward, and doesn't have a power forward frame these days. He's 6'1; not 6'4.

Drafting power forwards is admittedly fraught with issues - a 16 year old turns into a power forward becasue they have a growth spurt earlier than their contemporaries. That reliance on strength/power makes them an incredibly dominant junior player; which can get in the way of them learning how to win when you're not the biggest guy on the ice. Not everyone can learn that at the NHL level.

You also want to see some element of trajectory/progression; and that hasn't really been the case for him.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he be flipped for pennies on the dollar, but it's been 4 full seasons now and a number of players have seized opportunties over him. It may be time to try and figure out how to use his perceived upside to help the team get something else in return.

you on most of what you said, but I do believe mctavish is and will be one a power forward, he just doesn’t realize it fully himself yet. Historically speaking he isn’t a traditional power forward, but for the modern day nhl I think he fits this criteria. Height isn’t the only factor when thinking of a PF IMO, it’s the play style mainly. He has shown glimpses of his potential when he is engaged physically, and it’s when he is playmg his best, his issue is because of his draft position he thinks of himself as a full on sniper, instead of leaning into his god given abilities and frame. He is only 6’1 sure but he is built like a brick shit house lol.

I also think it is unfair to him to say he hasn’t had progression or trajectory, if you take this last year out of the equation I think he clearly showed just that.

And yes some younger players have leap frogged him on progression, but different players scale differently especially ones with a physical component to their game.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The Ducks' GM ran his team into the ground to get to the playoffs. Terry was playing on his injury since January and now will miss half of next season. McTavish got an upper body injury that affect his speed, FO's, and booming shot. Cutter was playing with two spinal bone fractures. Dostal sprained his ankle mid-season as well as got a broken finger. Dostal was so broken that he didn't pass the medicals to join his national team for the World Championships after the Ducks' playoffs ended.

This season was McTavish's first season he didn't improve upon the previous season, where he finished 2nd in team scoring and 1st in goal scoring. McTavish was a faster player last year and started off fast this past season until injuries cut his bursts, according to NHL Edge stats.

McTavish is a good soldier and does as he's told. In 2023-24, Mac racked up 86 PIM's and was a -23 rating. Staff told him to cut down his PIM's for next season and he did just that with 38 PIM's and a +0 rating, which finishing 2nd in team scoring and 1st in goal scoring. Then the dreaded hold out and missing training camp as well as pre-season games. This happed before with Drysdale and Zegras to where both went from 0 mph to 100 mph, which lead to their injuries. McTavish started off hot to start the season and helped Sennecke to a great rookie season. Just my opinion that McTavish was playing through some injury and caused his skating speed to drop (proof via NHL Edge stats).

Each new season, McTavish has returned with bigger muscles. Unfortunately, adding that much mass without working on skating probably slowed him down. Which is why in his exit interview after the playoffs, McTavish said he needs to come in lighter, work on improving his skating, as well as improve his defense.

There are many factors that project McTavish can easily bounce back. A lot of proposals want acquire McTavish for as low a return as possible. That's fair considering Verbeek cap dumped Zegras to Philly. Now that Zegras was away from former Ducks HC Cronin, Zegras' offensive talent returned to where he finished 2nd in team scoring by one point and 3rd in goal scoring with 26 goals. Hopefully, Verbeek can learn from his lesson to not sell low because you'll be getting a bounce back candidate. And that's the price teams wanting McTavish should be paying.