Rumor: Dreger: Belief that Mason McTavish is going to be traded

[seanlinden]

Maccelli isn't nearly as valuable as Cowan though, so I think Ducks say no.

I would suggest replacing Cowan with Ben Danford if you prefer, but that's just another right-handed D prospect that doesn't have top-pairing potential. The Ducks have 3 or 4 of those kids all coming up very very soon and will all need waivers by next summer.

Obviously not, I don't think McTavish carries Cowan + Carlo + 1st Round Pick type value.

While I am supremely confident that the consensus between Maccelli vs McTavish would be that McTavish is more valuable; when you look at their stat lines you've got 2 players of similar experience, similar overall production (McTavish more goals, Maccelli more assists), and similar warts (not great defensive/ 2-way players, not developing as one woudl have hoped from a couple years ago).

The Leafs acquired Maccelli for a 3rd round pick a year ago. Yes, McTavish has upside as a centre, yes, McTavish has a bigger frame; yes, McTavish was a 3rd overall pick and Maccelli was a 4th rounder, but based on their roughly 300 game sample size, I don't think the gap in their 2 respective values is from a 3rd round pick to Cowan+Carlo+1st.

The thing is, trades, especially when you're talking about offseason (or any time other than the deadline), aren't about matching value, they're about finding pieces that fit into what your team needs to be successful.

Anaheim doesn't really need a 9th overall pick. Sure it's a nice to have, but just like Ottawa, they don't really want it. Anaheim doesn't even really need a guy like Easton Cowan. What they need is a right shot defenceman with some size.

If they're losing McTavish, then yes, they'll probably want somebody who can bring some secondary offence.

 

[HavocWreaker]

I dont think Leafs should push it we are lacking assests. I think we have them, I just dont think we use them. Especially not in a potential bidding war. I actally like McTavish and Leafs have a long history of trading with the Ducks as well, shame.

 

[quacktastic93]

I don't think he's bad and I honestly don't know the player very well. Just based on his stats, I'll be surprised if he nets a top 10 pick though.

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

...calling McTavish a Power Forward is the equivalent of calling Sloth Tkachuk a Mensa member...

 

[seanlinden]

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

One of the challenges with high draft picks, is the reason that they're drafted high -- they're better than everyone else.

There's 2 "reasons" why they're better. One is if they are just that good (think McDavid), the other is if they're just way ahead in their development relative to their peers.

Luke Schenn jumps out as the most obvious example of this... a guy that was "the Human Eraser" in junior; was completely dominant. However, the reason he was dominant wasn't because he had so much more talent then everyone else. It was because he was 6'2, 220 full of muscle, playing against kids who were well under 180. The guy has managed an incredible career, but when you draft a defenceman 5th overall, you kind of hope he becomes a true top pair guy. Calling Luke Schenn a #4 defenceman at any point was probably a little generous to him.

Yes, power forward take longer, it was in his 6th season that Lawson Crouse finally broke out for 20 goals, but they're different kind of players. McTavish isn't really a power forward, and doesn't have a power forward frame these days. He's 6'1; not 6'4.

Drafting power forwards is admittedly fraught with issues - a 16 year old turns into a power forward becasue they have a growth spurt earlier than their contemporaries. That reliance on strength/power makes them an incredibly dominant junior player; which can get in the way of them learning how to win when you're not the biggest guy on the ice. Not everyone can learn that at the NHL level.

You also want to see some element of trajectory/progression; and that hasn't really been the case for him.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he be flipped for pennies on the dollar, but it's been 4 full seasons now and a number of players have seized opportunties over him. It may be time to try and figure out how to use his perceived upside to help the team get something else in return.

 

[FiveTacos]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he be flipped for pennies on the dollar, but it's been 4 full seasons now and a number of players have seized opportunties over him. It may be time to try and figure out how to use his perceived upside to help the team get something else in return.

You make it sound like it was more than just one rough season. Exactly one year ago he finished the season as the Ducks' best forward over the 2nd half. And he'd been the Ducks' best young forward the year before as well. This was the first season he didn't make progress.

If you're gonna quickly move on from every promising young player who has a year where they stumble, you'd miss out on a hell of a lot of players who didn't put it together until their mid 20's.

And who exactly has seized opportunities over him? If the goal is to fill the 2C spot long term, he's still their highest likelihood candidate. It isn't gonna be Poehling, and McQueen we haven't even seen play a single NHL game yet. Granlund is only a stopgap. Gauthier they seem to want at wing.

 

[mphmiles]

I don’t know if I would be surprised, but I don’t think it is likely. He is a former third overall pick who is a big strong young power forward still trying to to find his way, which is common with those types of players. If the value on the return isn’t there, there isn’t a trade to be had. Who drafts a power forward at 3 then flips him in his early 20s for Pennie’s on the dollar lol.

I'm not saying what they should or shouldn't do, but FWIW this is the sunk cost fallacy. Back around 2021 The Rangers could have flipped Kaapo Kakko for a haul. They hung onto him, his value kept decreasing, and eventually they had to trade him for a 3rd, a 6th, and a mediocre defenseman.

Who knows how MacTavish's career plays out, but point being, there's risk in holding onto a depreciating asset too- not just in moving one out.