Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[I am the Liquor]

You're assuming that he is an elite franchise Dman. That's a big reach. And yeah he easily has the most upside until he hits any kind of a rough patch and then all of a sudden he has top 4 upside if he can fix his warts.

So we should take yet another forward? How's that working so far?

 

[Homesick]

Yeah I think the chart is from from an exact science but does put things into perspective

I mean for Dubios you could say he does it all himself and a good 2 way player who compares to Benn. But then Brassard played in Q and a very similar prospect with same production and hasnt blown anyone away in NHL

I think HFOil is so warry of Tkachuk because of Gagner. But I think 2 things are forgotten. The first is that Domi (whom has been less regarded than MT) transitioned well. And also that PLD barely outpaced a 19th overall 2015 pick. They also have a guy in Lazarev who was 1.44 ppg himself.

I dont think the gap is big, if any TBH. Most scouting agencies have Tkachuk over Dubios. And while Dubios has super impressive tools, guys coming from the Q never really live up to the hype

Coutuirer- similar prospect to Dubios, a shutdown 45 point 2c.
Drouin- 3 years after draft finally doing well in NHL (but small sample size)
Mackinnon- SUPER hyped, on par with RNH at same age
Grigorenko- Hyped as a top 3 pick, still just a marginal 3rd line guy
Brassard/Sheppard/Pouliot all didnt live up to hype

Seems like only guy who did was Vorachek. But even his career high is 81 points and hes been a career 58 point player.

I think people hold the Knights connection against Tkachuk a little too much

Dubois went from 7th to 1st OA for NA Skater with the NHL Central Scouting So does International Scouting Services.
So even with Tkachuk lighting it up they still see more to PLD's game and potential. I think you might be looking at mid-season rankings for "scouts" that haven't released their finals yet

 

[Soundwave]

So we should take yet another forward? How's that working so far?

If you count every 1st rounder we've had since 2009 we've taken

3 centers: RNH, Draisaitl, McDavid

3 wingers: Hall, Paajarvi, Yakupov

3 d-men: Klefbom, Nurse, and basically Reinhart (traded our second 2015 1st for him)

I'd say the 3 centers have pulled their weight. 2/3 wingers have not. 1/3 d-men thus far is impacting anything. Wingers/D have not gotten it done.

Getting Justin Schultz was supposed to be like getting another 1st round d-man too for "free", that was the whole appeal of it (without the development period) was it not? I remember a lot of people saying Schultz would for sure go in the top 10 of his draft class in a re-do at that time and that the Oilers were basically getting another "free" 1st rounder.

We need a d-man who can play now, not someone who will play in 3-4 years. We're seeing even with Nurse and Reinhart, d-men take a long time to impact anything on the ice and with Schultz we saw his development go sideways entirely.

We probably should just trade for d-men who already have some real development tread on them ... ie: Vatanen, Barrie, even a Dumba might make more sense than drafting a D at this spot. Then again Chychrun might be the next Pietranglo in 3-4 years, who knows. Tough decisions.

 

[Zaddy]

Yeah I think the chart is from from an exact science but does put things into perspective

I mean for Dubios you could say he does it all himself and a good 2 way player who compares to Benn. But then Brassard played in Q and a very similar prospect with same production and hasnt blown anyone away in NHL

I think HFOil is so warry of Tkachuk because of Gagner. But I think 2 things are forgotten. The first is that Domi (whom has been less regarded than MT) transitioned well. And also that PLD barely outpaced a 19th overall 2015 pick. They also have a guy in Lazarev who was 1.44 ppg himself.

Well, the thing with that chart is that you have to seperate which guys were late birthdays and were in their 3rd CHL season in comparison to guys who were in their 2nd season in their draft year. Guys like Kane, Tkachuk, Brassard, Hall, Tavares, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Yakupov and even Couturier were all late birthdays. Pretty obvious your PPG is going to look better if you have one more years worth of experience.

 

[Fourier]

How many Elite Franchise dmen do we have in the system? And he's a LHD who's played a ton of RD in Junior. If we draft Sergachev he easily has the most upside out of all the dmen in the organization including Klefbom.

I don't see any evidence to support this assertion that he easily has better upside than Klefbom. I don't even see much more obvious upside than Nurse who you never thought much of.

As draft year prospects Sergachev is certainly better offensively but Nurse was definitely better defensively. Nurse was the better skater and was more physical. Given a choice between the two I'd take Sergachev because I think the offensive tools are important, but he did not dominate the OHL the way one might expect for a draft eligible to be named defenseman of the year. The issue in the OHL is that there were very few high profile post draft defensemen to compete with guys like Sergachev, Chychrun and Juolievi. It really is a pretty blah time for OHL defenders.

 

[Fourier]

on your very list you point out exaclty why I don't like Tkachuk. Gagner, right there on the list, he fed of Kane. Tkachuk feeds of Marner. I would like Dubious over him for sure. Also the big Russian D man intrigues me.

The Gagner/Tkachuk link is a total red herring. The players and the situations are very different.

 

[Fourier]

So we should take yet another forward? How's that working so far?

In this case they should take the forward or trade down because the forward is a tier above the defensemen that are available. And at this point I don't think anyone who has watched these players a lot would dispute that.

I don't see much of a case to be made to suggest any of these three is significantly better than guys like Klefbom, Nurse or Reinhart were at the same age. There is no Aaron Ekblad here. One might have hoped that Chychrun would be closer but he had a very modest draft year.

 

[Heavy Dee]

I would be fine with this, depending on the cost for moving up.

Draisatl and number 4 for Jones and number 3...

 

[booyakasha]

Draisatl and number 4 for Jones and number 3...

why in the world would CBJ do this?

Jones>>Draisaitl
3rd>>>4th

 

[I am the Liquor]

In this case they should take the forward or trade down because the forward is a tier above the defensemen that are available. And at this point I don't think anyone who has watched these players a lot would dispute that.

I don't see much of a case to be made to suggest any of these three is significantly better than guys like Klefbom, Nurse or Reinhart were at the same age. There is no Aaron Ekblad here. One might have hoped that Chychrun would be closer but he had a very modest draft year.

What we don't need is another 18yr old forward. Especially when Matthews and Laine are off the table. I couldn't think of a worse way to use that asset tbh. If all 29 other teams say no to any deal that brings us a quality dman in return for the pick or a package including the pick, then, and only then do you consider making the pick. I haven't seen a lot of Tkachuk, but what I have seen has been less than impressive. I'm not picking a player because he has good boxcars on a loaded Knights team.

 

[rt]

7+20+67 for 4+32+4thRounder in'17 ???

 

[VainGretzky]

7+20+67 for 4+32+4thRounder in'17 ???

Looks good but does not land us a rhd so no.Tkachuk is the better trade chip to aquire one.

 

[CornKicker]

What we don't need is another 18yr old forward. Especially when Matthews and Laine are off the table. I couldn't think of a worse way to use that asset tbh. If all 29 other teams say no to any deal that brings us a quality dman in return for the pick or a package including the pick, then, and only then do you consider making the pick. I haven't seen a lot of Tkachuk, but what I have seen has been less than impressive. I'm not picking a player because he has good boxcars on a loaded Knights team.

we dont need another 18 year old forward in our line up but we do need forward prospects in our system, really bad we do. We have no elite forward prospects playing in our system and when the time comes that mcdavid gets paid we will need players ready to come in on cheap ELC's to be competitive. the player we take at 4 should not be in the lineup next season regardless of position. but to say we dont need to draft another forward is completely wrong and offbase.

 

[ponokanocker]

So we should take yet another forward? How's that working so far?

Which of the D do you think we should target? Do you think a deal with Arizona makes good sense to target a D at #7? 4 plus our 2nd for 7 and 20?

 

[Mr Positive]

What we don't need is another 18yr old forward. Especially when Matthews and Laine are off the table. I couldn't think of a worse way to use that asset tbh. If all 29 other teams say no to any deal that brings us a quality dman in return for the pick or a package including the pick, then, and only then do you consider making the pick. I haven't seen a lot of Tkachuk, but what I have seen has been less than impressive. I'm not picking a player because he has good boxcars on a loaded Knights team.

We don't need another 18 year old forward for sure, but that's not to say that getting one is a bad idea. It's only a bad idea if we choose that player instead of one we need.

I agree that the pick should be for sale, but not for a Dman like Barrie or Vatanen. At the very least we should be trying to trade for 2nd pairing Dmen like that with other pieces, if for no other reason than to balance the salary and contracts down the line. Chiarelli even said that he plans on trading forwards for defense if he can.

The 4th overall will be a building block piece with many years of control, and the fact that it's expansion exempt is huge. If someone will give us a true top pairing guy in a package deal for it I'm happy with that. I don't see that deal opening up for us, but Chiarelli should be asking around about it. Ultimately I think we make the pick, and that player doesn't even play in the NHL for a year at least, unless Puljujarvi slides to 4th (not likely but you never know).

 

[CupofOil]

on your very list you point out exaclty why I don't like Tkachuk. Gagner, right there on the list, he fed of Kane. Tkachuk feeds of Marner. I would like Dubious over him for sure. Also the big Russian D man intrigues me.

You do realize that Tkachuk will be playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. Why does it matter that he's playing with a high end playmaker in junior? He'll be playing with even better players with the Oilers.

I think Tkachuk is being really underrated. The poll results are ridiculously lopsided in favor of Dubois for some reason. The Oilers have been looking for a forward like Tkachuk since Prime Smyth. Exactly the type of player that would excel big time with McDavid. Hell, Maroon was on a 40 goal pace alongside McDavid albeit in a short sample size and this guy is way more skilled.

My preference is to deal the pick outright but I think Tkachuk is a great fit for this team and the need will be even greater when 1,2 or possibly 3 of the top 9 forwards are dealt. Not that I would mind Dubois but I haven't seen enough of him to make a proper assessment.

I think any of the Dmen would be a reach at 4 but admittedly, I have limited viewings of Chychrun and Sergachev. Not really enamoured with Juolevi, he seems like a solid 2nd pariing type to me.

 

[I am the Liquor]

we dont need another 18 year old forward in our line up but we do need forward prospects in our system, really bad we do. We have no elite forward prospects playing in our system and when the time comes that mcdavid gets paid we will need players ready to come in on cheap ELC's to be competitive. the player we take at 4 should not be in the lineup next season regardless of position. but to say we dont need to draft another forward is completely wrong and offbase.

This team has missed the playoffs ten years and counting. They finished last season in 29th place. If the gaping holes aren't addressed with some urgency and purpose, McDavid won't be resigning here for any amount of money, and the lineup to get out of here will be a long one.

 

[McOvechking]

We don't need another 18 year old forward for sure, but that's not to say that getting one is a bad idea. It's only a bad idea if we choose that player instead of one we need.

I agree that the pick should be for sale, but not for a Dman like Barrie or Vatanen. At the very least we should be trying to trade for 2nd pairing Dmen like that with other pieces, if for no other reason than to balance the salary and contracts down the line. Chiarelli even said that he plans on trading forwards for defense if he can.

The 4th overall will be a building block piece with many years of control, and the fact that it's expansion exempt is huge. If someone will give us a true top pairing guy in a package deal for it I'm happy with that. I don't see that deal opening up for us, but Chiarelli should be asking around about it. Ultimately I think we make the pick, and that player doesn't even play in the NHL for a year at least, unless Puljujarvi slides to 4th (not likely but you never know).

I really don't understand this logic at all. Please, tell me who we have for forward prospects right now? The college free agent we just signed? Cause that's about it.

This organization is in desperate need of young forwards. Bringing in a guy like Dubois or Tkachuk and letting them develop in the farm system for a year would probably do wonders for helping the players around him develop too.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Which of the D do you think we should target? Do you think a deal with Arizona makes good sense to target a D at #7? 4 plus our 2nd for 7 and 20?

The goal would be to use the pick in a package to get a top pairing, all situations, minute muncher.

 

[I am the Liquor]

I really don't understand this logic at all. Please, tell me who we have for forward prospects right now? The college free agent we just signed? Cause that's about it.

This organization is in desperate need of young forwards. Bringing in a guy like Dubois or Tkachuk and letting them develop in the farm system for a year would probably do wonders for helping the players around him develop too.

I'm guessing Chia gives zero ****s about our forward prospect situation. Item #2056 on the to do list.

This team has a plethora of high end young forwards. We will be OK in that regard. What we don't have is a semblance of NHL dmen, particularly ones that aren't #6 or 7 dmen.

Even with all of that plain as the nose on Klinger's face, the not so silent majority here would like to see us pick the junior kid with the best box cars. You can't make this stuff up.

 

[McOvechking]

I'm guessing Chia gives zero ****s about our forward prospect situation. Item #2056 on the to do list.

This team has a plethora of high end young forwards. We will be OK in that regard. What we don't have is a semblance of NHL dmen, particularly ones that aren't #6 or 7 dmen.

Even with all of that plain as the nose on Klinger's face, the not so silent majority here would like to see us pick the junior kid with the best box cars. You can't make this stuff up.

The problem is this organization has needs in all areas right now. Yes, we need to address the defense, but we also need to be concerned at the cost with which that comes.

Keep in mind this is a team that for all its "high end young forwards" has consistently been finishing in the bottom five for goals for each year. Offensively, the Oilers are ****. Defensively, the Oilers are doomed.

Goaltending is about the only thing I feel good about going into next season.

 

[ponokanocker]

The goal would be to use the pick in a package to get a top pairing, all situations, minute muncher.

This is my preference as well but what if there isn't another team that is willling? Do you have a preference of the top D in the draft?

 

[Beerfish]

So we should take yet another forward? How's that working so far?

Yes, 100% for sure. If the forward prospect is looked at as being a better player you take him with your 1st pick, especially if it is a high pick. You can draft for need all you want after about round 2.

The fault in the Oilers approach to this point has not been about drafting the best player early it has been about the 100% inability of management to use an excess in one area to solve or help out another areas.

 

[Zaddy]

Brock Otten just recently released his OHL rankings. Great read as always, really respect and admire his work.

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.se/2016/05/my-final-top-50-ohl-players-for-2016_20.html

He has the d-men ranked Chychrun>Sergachyov>Juloevi. Brown and Nylander are ranked above the d-men and Tkachuk is in 1st place, fairly expected stuff. Liked seeing Brown ranked so highly as I've become increasingly high on him lately and heavily considering putting him in my top6.

 

[Beerfish]

7+20+67 for 4+32+4thRounder in'17 ???

If the oilers make any simple trade down move in this draft I'll be totally enraged and it will confirm to me that our new Gm is just as stupid as the other mooks who have inhabited that position over the last number of years.