Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[snipes]

I will be scouting the whole tournament and will be able to give feedback and updates to anyone who wants it

That would be great! You can PM if you want or just even post it here. I'm probably not the only one interested.

I don't get to see as much junior hockey as I would like, pretty much only WHL and IIHF events. The Memorial Cup hasn't been out this way in a while it seems like. Pumped to see the London Knights live.

Who do you like as the favourites this year?

 

[Stud Muffin]

Once this hits 1000 posts I hope the next thread would include Puljujarvi in the poll.
Tkachuk and Dubois seem to have closed the gap between 3 and 5

No they haven't. Puljujarvi is above them without question.

 

[J4M13M]

we should trade eberle + #4 for #2

mcdavid + Laine for 15 years + both dont need to be protected for expansion

I certainly wouldn't mind, but why on earth would Winnipeg, of all teams, do this?

Wheeler > Eberle

They're one of the few teams in the league where Eberle would be a clear-cut second liner.

 

[The Safe Play]

Eberle and Dubois/Tkachuk > Laine for me.

 

[lakai17]

I'd seriously look into Keller as well boys. He is in Pronmans top 5 for a reason.

Doug Weight esque boys.

 

[Aceboogie]

I think this draft will be like 2014 where everyone prefers a guy but Oilers mgmt goes for "need". Bennett was above Drasaitl but we went for size and two way. I think Chia might go for the buzz saw guy who can play with skill (and MT has good IQ too)

 

[Aceboogie]

I guess at their worst, Tkachuk turns into a Torres type player and Dubios into a Benoit Pouliot

 

[Canovin]

If we are comparing DuBois and Tkachuk to Drai and Bennett.

It would be, do we prefer a bigger, better skating and less skilled Drai or the less skilled and slower Bennett?

 

[Aceboogie]

If we are comparing DuBois and Tkachuk to Drai and Bennett.

It would be, do we prefer a bigger, better skating and less skilled Drai or the less skilled and slower Bennett?

Not disagreeing with you, I have Dubios over Bennett. But I do think Tkachuk is starting to get underrated on here a bit. His offense is pretty unreal and at levels of some pretty great past top 3 picks.

Tkachuk does have a ton of skill. And while hes fiesty like Bennett, it appears he is a step above when it comes to doing it around the net. If you watch his highlights, he dominates down low. For a past comparable, he looks like Smyth around the net. For current comparables, Monahan is a net guy and is potting 30 goals now

Dubios is my pick 100%, but you have to wonder about Tkachuk for a couple reasons.

1) While hes on a stack OHL team, putting up points in the O is a bit more important than in the Q. Its tough to find a Q player drafted in top 15 that has went to meet or even exceed expectations on draft day. Plus Dubios had another 1st round pick on his line as well. Dubios had a marginally higher ppg at 1.59 vs Svechnikov 1.58. Tkachuks was a bigger drop from Marner (2.03 vs 1.87) but still comparable to a super skilled 4th overall. And thats in his 1st OHL year. I mean last year Domi had 102 with Marner and Domis went on to be really good in the NHL. Playing a similar game to Tkachuk

2) He could be a tremendous linemate for McDavid given that he can play with skill (he has great skill), but is perfect fit given he will go to dirty areas and dominate there

3) Like Draisaitl, if he can clean up and dominate with less than stellar skating, what can he do with improved skating (like Tavares and Drasaitl have improved)

4) Marner really benefits his points, but how much is he giving up to Marner? Maybe without Marner his points drop but he has the ability to show he can carry a line himself. Is he just right now playing that down low energy guy too much? Maybe on his own he can dominate from blueline in

Just points to consider

 

[MuzzaFuzza]

Anyone making the drive to Red Deer to catch any Memorial Cup action? Maybe get an up close look at Tkachuk live.

Clague for the Brandon Wheat Kings is also worth going to view as a potential pick at #32.

I'm hoping to get tickets to the London/Brandon game, would be cool to see Marner/Tkachuk/Dvorak/Juolevi/Provorov/Patrick play here in RD

 

[vincent1999]

good points chart

good points chart-- although I wonder if ALL players were included, or were some non successful guys dumped from the list. If it includes everyone, well, that suggests more likely than not, the #4 pick could be a real player if the Oilers go the route of selecting a point producing forward.

chart shows where "Gagner" was compared to P. Kane
chart also shows where Dubois is compared to other top 5 picks

and yes, Tkachuk's points total looks relatively impressive (even if he is being bolstered by Marner), and he's about a half a point per game above Dubois, and his 2 points per game puts him into the somewhat rarified air status of "elite" level players (with some exceptions aka Gagner and Brassard).

 

[Aceboogie]

good points chart-- although I wonder if ALL players were included, or were some non successful guys dumped from the list. If it includes everyone, well, that suggests more likely than not, the #4 pick could be a real player if the Oilers go the route of selecting a point producing forward.

chart shows where "Gagner" was compared to P. Kane
chart also shows where Dubois is compared to other top 5 picks

and yes, Tkachuk's points total looks relatively impressive (even if he is being bolstered by Marner), and he's about a half a point per game above Dubois, and his 2 points per game puts him into the somewhat rarified air status of "elite" level players (with some exceptions aka Gagner and Brassard).

Yeah I think the chart is from from an exact science but does put things into perspective

I mean for Dubios you could say he does it all himself and a good 2 way player who compares to Benn. But then Brassard played in Q and a very similar prospect with same production and hasnt blown anyone away in NHL

I think HFOil is so warry of Tkachuk because of Gagner. But I think 2 things are forgotten. The first is that Domi (whom has been less regarded than MT) transitioned well. And also that PLD barely outpaced a 19th overall 2015 pick. They also have a guy in Lazarev who was 1.44 ppg himself.

I dont think the gap is big, if any TBH. Most scouting agencies have Tkachuk over Dubios. And while Dubios has super impressive tools, guys coming from the Q never really live up to the hype

Coutuirer- similar prospect to Dubios, a shutdown 45 point 2c.
Drouin- 3 years after draft finally doing well in NHL (but small sample size)
Mackinnon- SUPER hyped, on par with RNH at same age
Grigorenko- Hyped as a top 3 pick, still just a marginal 3rd line guy
Brassard/Sheppard/Pouliot all didnt live up to hype

Seems like only guy who did was Vorachek. But even his career high is 81 points and hes been a career 58 point player.

I think people hold the Knights connection against Tkachuk a little too much

 

[Raab]

Yeah I think the chart is from from an exact science but does put things into perspective

I mean for Dubios you could say he does it all himself and a good 2 way player who compares to Benn. But then Brassard played in Q and a very similar prospect with same production and hasnt blown anyone away in NHL

I think HFOil is so warry of Tkachuk because of Gagner. But I think 2 things are forgotten. The first is that Domi (whom has been less regarded than MT) transitioned well. And also that PLD barely outpaced a 19th overall 2015 pick. They also have a guy in Lazarev who was 1.44 ppg himself.

I dont think the gap is big, if any TBH. Most scouting agencies have Tkachuk over Dubios. And while Dubios has super impressive tools, guys coming from the Q never really live up to the hype

Coutuirer- similar prospect to Dubios, a shutdown 45 point 2c.
Drouin- 3 years after draft finally doing well in NHL (but small sample size)
Mackinnon- SUPER hyped, on par with RNH at same age
Grigorenko- Hyped as a top 3 pick, still just a marginal 3rd line guy
Brassard/Sheppard/Pouliot all didnt live up to hype

Seems like only guy who did was Vorachek. But even his career high is 81 points and hes been a career 58 point player.

I think people hold the Knights connection against Tkachuk a little too much

And this is why for me its between Sergachev and Tkachuk. I think in terms of draft position based just off skill Tkachuk would be above Sergachev. But then you look at Sergachev and he doesn't have many flaws and projects to be a top pairing dman. I think if Sergachev hits he's the type of guy that never gets moved and you can't acquire. Basically I believe Sergachev has the potential to be a Pietrangelo/OEL calibre dman. Also worth noting is that Sergachev is over 6 months younger then Tkachuk. I won't be mad if they take either of these guys, but I still prefer the dman.

 

[Aceboogie]

And this is why for me its between Sergachev and Tkachuk. I think in terms of draft position based just off skill Tkachuk would be above Sergachev. But then you look at Sergachev and he doesn't have many flaws and projects to be a top pairing dman. I think if Sergachev hits he's the type of guy that never gets moved and you can't acquire. Basically I believe Sergachev has the potential to be a Pietrangelo/OEL calibre dman. Also worth noting is that Sergachev is over 6 months younger then Tkachuk. I won't be mad if they take either of these guys, but I still prefer the dman.

Sergachev plays right side too (LHD playing RD). So thats a bonus

This one is becoming close for me between the 3. If we trade the pick at least it removes all chances of us blowing the pick

 

[HeavyHitter99]

I'd seriously look into Keller as well boys. He is in Pronmans top 5 for a reason.

Doug Weight esque boys.

I love Keller and he's 8th on my list but there are 2 other forwards that bring equal potential but also bring elements to the team that we don't have (Tkachuk and Dubois). Keller is fantastic but he's 170 lbs, I hate drafting for need and will never say that we should do so but drafting a guy like him would be foolish. Tkachuk and Dubois both bring the high end talent but also bring grit/feistiness/strength (Tkachuk) or size/2way/strength (Dubois). There's also 3 very solid defenders in this draft (including the OHL dman of the year).

The Oilers have proven that picking the most skilled, flashy and small player doesn't get you far.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

If we are comparing DuBois and Tkachuk to Drai and Bennett.

It would be, do we prefer a bigger, better skating and less skilled Drai or the less skilled and slower Bennett?

Other than potentially going back to back in the draft those comparisons aren't even close though. Dubois is nothing like Drai and Tkachuk is nothing like Bennett.

 

[Fourier]

And this is why for me its between Sergachev and Tkachuk. I think in terms of draft position based just off skill Tkachuk would be above Sergachev. But then you look at Sergachev and he doesn't have many flaws and projects to be a top pairing dman. I think if Sergachev hits he's the type of guy that never gets moved and you can't acquire. Basically I believe Sergachev has the potential to be a Pietrangelo/OEL calibre dman. Also worth noting is that Sergachev is over 6 months younger then Tkachuk. I won't be mad if they take either of these guys, but I still prefer the dman.

Again, of the three defensemen I prefer Sergachev. But it is a stretch to suggest that he is at the same level as a guy like Pietrangelo at the same age. He's just not nearly as good in his own end or as over all impactful. I think that Sergachev could turn into a really goo defenseman but right now he is a clear tier below a guy like Tkachuk in my eyes.

 

[Jet Walters]

Is Scheifele a good comparison for the style of game Dubois plays?

 

[iCanada]

Is Scheifele a good comparison for the style of game Dubois plays?

Think more James Neal / Jarome Iginla than Scheifele.

He is a lot heavier than Schiefele in general; Heavier checks, heavier shot, once or twice a game he just puts shoulder down and drag defenders to the net.

 

[Raab]

Again, of the three defensemen I prefer Sergachev. But it is a stretch to suggest that he is at the same level as a guy like Pietrangelo at the same age. He's just not nearly as good in his own end or as over all impactful. I think that Sergachev could turn into a really goo defenseman but right now he is a clear tier below a guy like Tkachuk in my eyes.

I dunno if he is. I don't really see anything holding him back from being at minimum a top 4 offensive dman. And really think he has the potential to be an Elite Franchise dman. I mean look at his age and game. He does have a few warts but I believe they can be ironed out with good coaching. Then look at the age difference, Sergachev is 6 months younger then Tkachuk. Then you look at team need and its a very tough decision. As I said I'll be happy with either, but I still think Sergachev should be our guy at 4.

 

[nabob]

I dunno if he is. I don't really see anything holding him back from being at minimum a top 4 offensive dman. And really think he has the potential to be an Elite Franchise dman. I mean look at his age and game. He does have a few warts but I believe they can be ironed out with good coaching. Then look at the age difference, Sergachev is 6 months younger then Tkachuk. Then you look at team need and its a very tough decision. As I said I'll be happy with either, but I still think Sergachev should be our guy at 4.

If you look at team need as the depth chart for the entire organization the Sergachev being a LHD isn't at the top of the need list.

 

[Raab]

If you look at team need as the depth chart for the entire organization the Sergachev being a LHD isn't at the top of the need list.

How many Elite Franchise dmen do we have in the system? And he's a LHD who's played a ton of RD in Junior. If we draft Sergachev he easily has the most upside out of all the dmen in the organization including Klefbom.

 

[Joey Moss]

Eberle and Dubois/Tkachuk > Laine for me.

Agreed. Getting Laine through the lottery would've been great but no way we should move two quality assets for him.

 

[McGoMcD]

Not disagreeing with you, I have Dubios over Bennett. But I do think Tkachuk is starting to get underrated on here a bit. His offense is pretty unreal and at levels of some pretty great past top 3 picks.

Tkachuk does have a ton of skill. And while hes fiesty like Bennett, it appears he is a step above when it comes to doing it around the net. If you watch his highlights, he dominates down low. For a past comparable, he looks like Smyth around the net. For current comparables, Monahan is a net guy and is potting 30 goals now

Dubios is my pick 100%, but you have to wonder about Tkachuk for a couple reasons.

1) While hes on a stack OHL team, putting up points in the O is a bit more important than in the Q. Its tough to find a Q player drafted in top 15 that has went to meet or even exceed expectations on draft day. Plus Dubios had another 1st round pick on his line as well. Dubios had a marginally higher ppg at 1.59 vs Svechnikov 1.58. Tkachuks was a bigger drop from Marner (2.03 vs 1.87) but still comparable to a super skilled 4th overall. And thats in his 1st OHL year. I mean last year Domi had 102 with Marner and Domis went on to be really good in the NHL. Playing a similar game to Tkachuk

2) He could be a tremendous linemate for McDavid given that he can play with skill (he has great skill), but is perfect fit given he will go to dirty areas and dominate there

3) Like Draisaitl, if he can clean up and dominate with less than stellar skating, what can he do with improved skating (like Tavares and Drasaitl have improved)

4) Marner really benefits his points, but how much is he giving up to Marner? Maybe without Marner his points drop but he has the ability to show he can carry a line himself. Is he just right now playing that down low energy guy too much? Maybe on his own he can dominate from blueline in

Just points to consider

on your very list you point out exaclty why I don't like Tkachuk. Gagner, right there on the list, he fed of Kane. Tkachuk feeds of Marner. I would like Dubious over him for sure. Also the big Russian D man intrigues me.

 

[nabob]

How many Elite Franchise dmen do we have in the system? And he's a LHD who's played a ton of RD in Junior. If we draft Sergachev he easily has the most upside out of all the dmen in the organization including Klefbom.

You're assuming that he is an elite franchise Dman. That's a big reach. And yeah he easily has the most upside until he hits any kind of a rough patch and then all of a sudden he has top 4 upside if he can fix his warts.