Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[Aceboogie]

The Gagner/Tkachuk link is a total red herring. The players and the situations are very different.

I agree. While there is merit to idea Tkachuk is benefitting from Marner, people shouldnt be tossing him in with Gagner

I mean if people are basing things off 1 example... James Sheppard was a 9th overall Q player from Screaming Eagles. 84 points and a 6'1 215 PWF 2 way guy. 31 points above closest guy on his team. 91 points ever in the NHL..

 

[Raab]

I don't see any evidence to support this assertion that he easily has better upside than Klefbom. I don't even see much more obvious upside than Nurse who you never thought much of.

As draft year prospects Sergachev is certainly better offensively but Nurse was definitely better defensively. Nurse was the better skater and was more physical. Given a choice between the two I'd take Sergachev because I think the offensive tools are important, but he did not dominate the OHL the way one might expect for a draft eligible to be named defenseman of the year. The issue in the OHL is that there were very few high profile post draft defensemen to compete with guys like Sergachev, Chychrun and Juolievi. It really is a pretty blah time for OHL defenders.

Nurse made bone headed pinches and hits all over the ice. It's the reason he was left off team Canada. His shot also was nothing to write home about. Guys just seen a 6'5" dman who could skate and started drooling.

As for Sergachev he already has Klefboms size as a 17 year old. He has a fantastic shot and passing, great stick handling and above average skating. His defensive game had been improving from the beginning of the year. And so has his offensive output. He had 18 points in his first 28 games with Windsor. In his last 39 he had 39 points. Then was PPG in his 5 games in the playoffs. All this coming from a kid who was a OHL rookie, playing his first year in North America while learning a new language and is still 17 until after the draft.

 

[Draiskull]

I agree. While there is merit to idea Tkachuk is benefitting from Marner, people shouldnt be tossing him in with Gagner

I mean if people are basing things off 1 example... James Sheppard was a 9th overall Q player from Screaming Eagles. 84 points and a 6'1 215 PWF 2 way guy. 31 points above closest guy on his team. 91 points ever in the NHL..

Not sure how good is Gagner\sidekick comparisons.
If Gagner was a PWF\gritty\fast as Kane's side kick putting up similar numbers he would still be an Oiler.

McDavid needs a Tkachuk more than another "driver"

 

[Raab]

The problem is this organization has needs in all areas right now. Yes, we need to address the defense, but we also need to be concerned at the cost with which that comes.

Keep in mind this is a team that for all its "high end young forwards" has consistently been finishing in the bottom five for goals for each year. Offensively, the Oilers are ****. Defensively, the Oilers are doomed.

Goaltending is about the only thing I feel good about going into next season.

They consistently finish bottom 5 because they get no offence from their defence. It's not rocket science everyone in hockey will tell you a good offence starts with good defence. If we watch the game right now I'd say a ton of goals are scored off deflections or rebounds as a result of a point shot.

 

[Halibut]

In this case they should take the forward or trade down because the forward is a tier above the defensemen that are available. And at this point I don't think anyone who has watched these players a lot would dispute that.

I don't see much of a case to be made to suggest any of these three is significantly better than guys like Klefbom, Nurse or Reinhart were at the same age. There is no Aaron Ekblad here. One might have hoped that Chychrun would be closer but he had a very modest draft year.

Sergachev at least has more offensive upside than anyone we have now, that's why he interests me and I dont care to much about 'tiers' of supposed talent because inevitably those groupings are wrong. We need to take the best player for this team and that is probably a d-man. Go back and look at past few drafts and most of the forwards taken out of the top three but inside the top 10, they're often decent pieces but nothing that will really change this team. Everyone is excited about Tkachuk and his scoring in the playoffs but remember Brayden Schenn and the hype about him after the world juniors? Dont be surprised if Tkachuk doesnt live up to his hype either.

I think the draft is a crapshoot and if I'm gambling I'd rather be taking a shot at something valuable. I'd rather spend my $5 on a lottomax ticket with a shot at a $50 million prize than put it down on a 50/50 with a max prize of a few grand. There is a good chance of at least getting a good top 4 offensive defenceman who can be on your pp with Sergachev and a chance of a true top pairing guy. I'd rather take the risk, a true #1 doesnt get traded.

What is the best case with Tkachuk or Dubois? A 3rd line center or a winger that might have chemistry with McDavid? I hate to break it to everybody but McDavid makes other players better. He made Yak put up points, Pouliot, Maroon, Eberle they all scored more with him. So yes, I'm sure Tkachuk will score on McDavid's wing but I cant see the extra 10 or so points being a game changer for this team.

 

[Aceboogie]

Sergachev at least has more offensive upside than anyone we have now, that's why he interests me and I dont care to much about 'tiers' of supposed talent because inevitably those groupings are wrong. We need to take the best player for this team and that is probably a d-man. Go back and look at past few drafts and most of the forwards taken out of the top three but inside the top 10, they're often decent pieces but nothing that will really change this team. Everyone is excited about Tkachuk and his scoring in the playoffs but remember Brayden Schenn and the hype about him after the world juniors? Dont be surprised if Tkachuk doesnt live up to his hype either.

I think the draft is a crapshoot and if I'm gambling I'd rather be taking a shot at something valuable. I'd rather spend my $5 on a lottomax ticket with a shot at a $50 million prize than put it down on a 50/50 with a max prize of a few grand. There is a good chance of at least getting a good top 4 offensive defenceman who can be on your pp with Sergachev and a chance of a true top pairing guy. I'd rather take the risk, a true #1 doesnt get traded.

What is the best case with Tkachuk or Dubois? A 3rd line center or a winger that might have chemistry with McDavid? I hate to break it to everybody but McDavid makes other players better. He made Yak put up points, Pouliot, Maroon, Eberle they all scored more with him. So yes, I'm sure Tkachuk will score on McDavid's wing but I cant see the extra 10 or so points being a game changer for this team.

I can agree with this. Although I think bets case scenerio for Dubios is as of a Hossa or Benn clone, Tkachuk as Perry (?) aka elite first line wingers on level of Hall

Im starting to really like Sergachev tho. First year in CHL and it takes a bit of adjusting. PPG in the last half of the season on a so so offense team. Won OHL best D in his draft year which only Pronger, Doughty, Berard has ever done, still young and also plays RD too

Honestly I am almost becoming to the point where I am fine with any of Dubios/Sergachev/Tkachuk/Chrychrun or trade 4th outright for a D. hell id even be willingly to trade down personally as im fine with any of those guys

In the end, well end up with a D. Do we get a proven, more expensive one now in a trade, or do we draft a develop a potential top pairing D but have to wait 2 years?

Maybe the best idea is too trade Eberle for a D, sign a FA D, pick a D with 4th. Its overkill and you risk losing too much offense, but 100% your D is set then

 

[Zaddy]

I can agree with this. Although I think bets case scenerio for Dubios is as of a Hossa or Benn clone, Tkachuk as Perry (?) aka elite first line wingers on level of Hall

Im starting to really like Sergachev tho. First year in CHL and it takes a bit of adjusting. PPG in the last half of the season on a so so offense team. Won OHL best D in his draft year which only Pronger, Doughty, Berard has ever done, still young and also plays RD too

Honestly I am almost becoming to the point where I am fine with any of Dubios/Sergachev/Tkachuk/Chrychrun or trade 4th outright for a D. hell id even be willingly to trade down personally as im fine with any of those guys

In the end, well end up with a D. Do we get a proven, more expensive one now in a trade, or do we draft a develop a potential top pairing D but have to wait 2 years?

Maybe the best idea is too trade Eberle for a D, sign a FA D, pick a D with 4th. Its overkill and you risk losing too much offense, but 100% your D is set then

Ryan Ellis did as well.

 

[Fourier]

Sergachev at least has more offensive upside than anyone we have now, that's why he interests me and I dont care to much about 'tiers' of supposed talent because inevitably those groupings are wrong. We need to take the best player for this team and that is probably a d-man. Go back and look at past few drafts and most of the forwards taken out of the top three but inside the top 10, they're often decent pieces but nothing that will really change this team. Everyone is excited about Tkachuk and his scoring in the playoffs but remember Brayden Schenn and the hype about him after the world juniors? Dont be surprised if Tkachuk doesnt live up to his hype either.

I think the draft is a crapshoot and if I'm gambling I'd rather be taking a shot at something valuable. I'd rather spend my $5 on a lottomax ticket with a shot at a $50 million prize than put it down on a 50/50 with a max prize of a few grand. There is a good chance of at least getting a good top 4 offensive defenceman who can be on your pp with Sergachev and a chance of a true top pairing guy. I'd rather take the risk, a true #1 doesnt get traded.

What is the best case with Tkachuk or Dubois? A 3rd line center or a winger that might have chemistry with McDavid? I hate to break it to everybody but McDavid makes other players better. He made Yak put up points, Pouliot, Maroon, Eberle they all scored more with him. So yes, I'm sure Tkachuk will score on McDavid's wing but I cant see the extra 10 or so points being a game changer for this team.

Would you pick Sergachev #1 or #2? If no then you do care about tiers of talent. It's just the degree of difference between players that is up for debate.

Tkachuk just had one of the best playoffs in OHL history after putting up 107 regular season points. And what he did in the playoffs was not simply because he was riding Marner's coat tails but as the driver in many of London's games. To suggest that his upside is a guy who might have chemistry with McDavid is certainly down playing both his achievements and his potential to fit a narrative. How would Gabriel Landeskog be as a guy to pair with McDavid? I watched Landeskog's whole junior career and there is no doubt in my mind that Tkachuk is better at the same age.

I have not been all that sold on Tkachuk until the latter half of the OHL season when I got to see a lot of him down the stretch and in the playoffs. He was a very different player than the guy I watched earlier in the year. Much more of a leader than a follower.

I do see him as a complementary player but so was Jari Kurri. If you want to take full advantage of a guy like McDavid you provide him with skilled line mates that can complement his game. Tkachuk can go get the puck, and he can also do something with it when he gets it including scoring dirty goals from in tight. But more importantly he has high end skills in a player that plays the way none of the Oilers true skilled forwards do.

If the Oilers take Sergachev at #4 it is a mistake. I say this not because I don't like the player. I have been a supporter of his for longer than most here. I was also very impressed with his play in the Windsor/Rangers series. It is a mistake because it is an underuse of one of the team's most valuable assets. Trade down if he's your guy even if all you get is another pick. He's not going in the top 6 for sure.

There is absolutely no consensus on which of the three OHL defenders will be the best going forward. Right now I would say that things looked split on Juolevi and Sergachev who are quite different players. But I don't know anyone who follows the OHL who would not say that Tkachuk is the better player amongst the three by a fair bit.

 

[Fourier]

What we don't need is another 18yr old forward. Especially when Matthews and Laine are off the table. I couldn't think of a worse way to use that asset tbh. If all 29 other teams say no to any deal that brings us a quality dman in return for the pick or a package including the pick, then, and only then do you consider making the pick. I haven't seen a lot of Tkachuk, but what I have seen has been less than impressive. I'm not picking a player because he has good boxcars on a loaded Knights team.

I have no problem if they decide to make a deal using the 4th for a true impact defenseman. But we don't know what is available or what the cost might be. It may well be that the way you get a top 2-4 defenseman is by trading Eberle or Nuge in a package. Maybe both get moved. If you do that then the depth of forwards on this team starts to look extremely thin very fast.

 

[I am the Liquor]

This is my preference as well but what if there isn't another team that is willling? Do you have a preference of the top D in the draft?

Sergachev. Very mature, strong and offensively skilled. Could be the total package but won't help us now which is critical.

 

[Fourier]

I can agree with this. Although I think bets case scenerio for Dubios is as of a Hossa or Benn clone, Tkachuk as Perry (?) aka elite first line wingers on level of Hall

Im starting to really like Sergachev tho. First year in CHL and it takes a bit of adjusting. PPG in the last half of the season on a so so offense team. Won OHL best D in his draft year which only Pronger, Doughty, Berard has ever done, still young and also plays RD too

Honestly I am almost becoming to the point where I am fine with any of Dubios/Sergachev/Tkachuk/Chrychrun or trade 4th outright for a D. hell id even be willingly to trade down personally as im fine with any of those guys

In the end, well end up with a D. Do we get a proven, more expensive one now in a trade, or do we draft a develop a potential top pairing D but have to wait 2 years?

Maybe the best idea is too trade Eberle for a D, sign a FA D, pick a D with 4th. Its overkill and you risk losing too much offense, but 100% your D is set then

Typically the OHL has a lot of higher end drafted defensemen in their second post draft year. This is not the case right now. Sergachev had virtually no upper year competition of note, something that is very rare in that league.

 

[I am the Liquor]

The problem is this organization has needs in all areas right now. Yes, we need to address the defense, but we also need to be concerned at the cost with which that comes.

Keep in mind this is a team that for all its "high end young forwards" has consistently been finishing in the bottom five for goals for each year. Offensively, the Oilers are ****. Defensively, the Oilers are doomed.

Goaltending is about the only thing I feel good about going into next season.

Organizationally, there are much more urgent needs and holes that need fillin. It makes little sense to me to use it on a forward. As a gm, you can't manufacture deals but it would be a failure not to use assets like that pick to address more urgent organizational needs.

 

[lakai17]

Sergachev. Very mature, strong and offensively skilled. Could be the total package but won't help us now which is critical.

It still does not hurt the team long term. Only if Chia can acquire a veteran d or 2.

Oil can draft and develop like the Wings now.

I will not compare Sergachev to Zubov but as an Oil fan you had the luxury watching a guy like Zubov plenty.

Majority of hfoil throwing the Juolevi hype under the carpet also.

I am all for drafting Dubois or a forward if Eberle or RNH are on the way out. Although it shouldn't be hard to build around the top 6 in the next 10+ seasons having McDavid alone.

 

[SK13]

I'll be very interested to see who a different team picks at #4.

 

[Raab]

I have no problem if they decide to make a deal using the 4th for a true impact defenseman. But we don't know what is available or what the cost might be. It may well be that the way you get a top 2-4 defenseman is by trading Eberle or Nuge in a package. Maybe both get moved. If you do that then the depth of forwards on this team starts to look extremely thin very fast.

If we move a forward I'd be fine with Tkachuk or Brown being brought in. But barring a forward trade I feel that Sergachev should be our pick. IMO not much separating any of these guys, and we have never had a defenceman like Sergachev in our system.

I mean whens the last time we had a dman being even close to pulling something like this off?

Then you think about how young he is. What is he going to be doing in December next year in the OHL when he's the same age as Tkachuk is right now? The guy could possibly have an 70-90 point season as a dman next year if he goes back to junior. I also think theres no guarantee he's available at 7. I could easily see Vancouver grabbing him considering their lack of depth on d. So thats why I'm against trading down.

While I acknowledge that right now Tkachuk is the better prospect and most likely BPA at 4. I don't think there is a huge gap between him and Sergachev and if we look forward 2 to 3 years. I think that theres a case to be made that Sergachev has the potential to be the better player of the 2 long term and the 1 that would benefit the Oilers the most.

I mean can you imagine in 2 years Mcdavid is still on his ELC and we're injecting a mature Sergachev into the lineup on a ELC. That's pretty enticing considering you could sign any winger to a 4M per deal to play with Mcdavid and they'd probably not look out of place. Signing a top 4 offensive dman as were seeing this year could cost a lot more then Sergachevs ELC would be. And thats looking at worst case scenario of him being a top 4 offensive dman. If he hits his potential and becomes an OEL or Pietrangelo type dman I think we can start talking about being a contender.

 

[I am the Liquor]

I have no problem if they decide to make a deal using the 4th for a true impact defenseman. But we don't know what is available or what the cost might be. It may well be that the way you get a top 2-4 defenseman is by trading Eberle or Nuge in a package. Maybe both get moved. If you do that then the depth of forwards on this team starts to look extremely thin very fast.

You still have Hall, McDavid and Draisaitl. That's if you move both Nuge and Eberle, which if that is the plan then go ahead and draft a forward.

If it isn't then it makes no sense to me to pick a forward.

 

[Halibut]

Would you pick Sergachev #1 or #2? If no then you do care about tiers of talent. It's just the degree of difference between players that is up for debate.

Tkachuk just had one of the best playoffs in OHL history after putting up 107 regular season points. And what he did in the playoffs was not simply because he was riding Marner's coat tails but as the driver in many of London's games. To suggest that his upside is a guy who might have chemistry with McDavid is certainly down playing both his achievements and his potential to fit a narrative. How would Gabriel Landeskog be as a guy to pair with McDavid? I watched Landeskog's whole junior career and there is no doubt in my mind that Tkachuk is better at the same age.

I have not been all that sold on Tkachuk until the latter half of the OHL season when I got to see a lot of him down the stretch and in the playoffs. He was a very different player than the guy I watched earlier in the year. Much more of a leader than a follower.

I do see him as a complementary player but so was Jari Kurri. If you want to take full advantage of a guy like McDavid you provide him with skilled line mates that can complement his game. Tkachuk can go get the puck, and he can also do something with it when he gets it including scoring dirty goals from in tight. But more importantly he has high end skills in a player that plays the way none of the Oilers true skilled forwards do.

If the Oilers take Sergachev at #4 it is a mistake. I say this not because I don't like the player. I have been a supporter of his for longer than most here. I was also very impressed with his play in the Windsor/Rangers series. It is a mistake because it is an underuse of one of the team's most valuable assets. Trade down if he's your guy even if all you get is another pick. He's not going in the top 6 for sure.

There is absolutely no consensus on which of the three OHL defenders will be the best going forward. Right now I would say that things looked split on Juolevi and Sergachev who are quite different players. But I don't know anyone who follows the OHL who would not say that Tkachuk is the better player amongst the three by a fair bit.

This part is wrong headed thinking. It's very common but it's not right. Pre-draft rankings only matter on draft day after that it's what the player does going forward that matters and I dont think the rankings have ever ended up close to the way players turn out. Nobody is going to be complaining in three years if we took a lower rated player at the draft who developed into a better player than all of those ahead of him but we missed out on trading down and getting an extra third round pick.

If Sergachev develops into a 2nd pair defender that produces on the 1st unit powerplay he's probably as valuable to this team as anything Tkachuk or Dubois could become, not that they couldnt be great players but forwards arent that difficult to come by. If he becomes a true first pair defender he's more valuable than anyone on the team besides McDavid.

 

[CornKicker]

This part is wrong headed thinking. It's very common but it's not right. Pre-draft rankings only matter on draft day after that it's what the player does going forward that matters and I dont think the rankings have ever ended up close to the way players turn out. Nobody is going to be complaining in three years if we took a lower rated player at the draft who developed into a better player than all of those ahead of him but we missed out on trading down and getting an extra third round pick.

If Sergachev develops into a 2nd pair defender that produces on the 1st unit powerplay he's probably as valuable to this team as anything Tkachuk or Dubois could become, not that they couldnt be great players but forwards arent that difficult to come by. If he becomes a true first pair defender he's more valuable than anyone on the team besides McDavid.

if he turns into nikitin and tkachuk turns into a better landeskog then its a really big issue

 

[Raab]

if he turns into nikitin and tkachuk turns into a better landeskog then its a really big issue

He's already a better defender then Nikitin was at his best. As I said no reason not to think he's at the very least a top 4 dman with the ability to QB the PP.

 

[Digger12]

If we move a forward I'd be fine with Tkachuk or Brown being brought in. But barring a forward trade I feel that Sergachev should be our pick. IMO not much separating any of these guys, and we have never had a defenceman like Sergachev in our system.

I mean whens the last time we had a dman being even close to pulling something like this off?

Then you think about how young he is. What is he going to be doing in December next year in the OHL when he's the same age as Tkachuk is right now? The guy could possibly have an 70-90 point season as a dman next year if he goes back to junior. I also think theres no guarantee he's available at 7. I could easily see Vancouver grabbing him considering their lack of depth on d. So thats why I'm against trading down.

While I acknowledge that right now Tkachuk is the better prospect and most likely BPA at 4. I don't think there is a huge gap between him and Sergachev and if we look forward 2 to 3 years. I think that theres a case to be made that Sergachev has the potential to be the better player of the 2 long term and the 1 that would benefit the Oilers the most.

I mean can you imagine in 2 years Mcdavid is still on his ELC and we're injecting a mature Sergachev into the lineup on a ELC. That's pretty enticing considering you could sign any winger to a 4M per deal to play with Mcdavid and they'd probably not look out of place. Signing a top 4 offensive dman as were seeing this year could cost a lot more then Sergachevs ELC would be. And thats looking at worst case scenario of him being a top 4 offensive dman. If he hits his potential and becomes an OEL or Pietrangelo type dman I think we can start talking about being a contender.

Wow, no offense to Sergachev on that goal but that was some outright atrocious defending by the worst team in the OHL's Eastern Conference. #11 there (Alan Lyszczarczyk, which on my life is the only last name I've ever seen that had 3 z's and 2 y's in it) did a complete fly by with a lame slash as his only contribution to the defensive effort.

 

[SLURVE]

Jesse Puljujarvi may drop to 4

I believe there is a possibility that Jesse Puljujarvi may drop to four for the Oilers. I can see Tkachuk drafted by CBJ. If that is the case, Chia will have more flexibility and options to do something such as trading for a top dman.

 

[Halibut]

if he turns into nikitin and tkachuk turns into a better landeskog then its a really big issue

Sure but if Tkachuk turns into Brayden Schenn and Sergachev turns into an Andrei Markov we're laughing. Heck, Tkachuk could turn into your better Landeskog and we'd still be a better team with a Markov.

 

[Draiskull]

I believe there is a possibility that Jesse Puljujarvi may drop to four for the Oilers. I can see Tkachuk drafted by Winnipeg following in his father's footstep, Keith Tkachuk. If that is the case, Chia will have more flexibility and options to doing something such as trading for a top dman.

Chance of Laine dropping to 3 is less than Laine going 1st overall.
If Jets pass on Laine for Tkachuk then the GM and entire management should be instantly fired.

CBJ might take Tkachuk at #3 but there is 0 chance he goes #2

 

[SLURVE]

Chance of Laine dropping to 3 is less than Laine going 1st overall.
If Jets pass on Laine for Tkachuk then the GM and entire management should be instantly fired.

CBJ might take Tkachuk at #3 but there is 0 chance he goes #2

my bad, i mean CBJ may take Tkachuk.

 

[Raab]

Wow, no offense to Sergachev on that goal but that was some outright atrocious defending by the worst team in the OHL's Eastern Conference. #11 there (Alan Lyszczarczyk, which on my life is the only last name I've ever seen that had 3 z's and 2 y's in it) did a complete fly by with a lame slash as his only contribution to the defensive effort.

Yea, but thats not the only time Sergachev has made rushes like that. I'm sure you've seen it but look at his early season highlights. Look at the rush he creates at 1:10 into the video. We need more dmen who can create rushes like that.