Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[Lrrr]

If we move a forward I'd be fine with Tkachuk or Brown being brought in. But barring a forward trade I feel that Sergachev should be our pick. IMO not much separating any of these guys, and we have never had a defenceman like Sergachev in our system.

Not to single out a single point in your post, but why does it matter if we move a forward now? I imagine at best Brown would need a couple years before he sniffs the NHL and Tkachuk is probably at least a year away as well.

 

[Fourier]

Sure but if Tkachuk turns into Brayden Schenn and Sergachev turns into an Andrei Markov we're laughing. Heck, Tkachuk could turn into your better Landeskog and we'd still be a better team with a Markov.

Unless you have a crystal ball and know what every player is going to turn out to be you seem to be arguing that all draft slots have the same value? Would you pick Sergachev at #1 or #2? Maybe Matthews or Laine become Yakupov while Sergacev becomes Markov. What your position completely ignores is the likelihood of the players in question becoming what you suggest.

 

[Draiskull]

Unless you have a crystal ball and know what every player is going to turn out to be you seem to be arguing that all draft slots have the same value? Would you pick Sergachev at #1 or #2? Maybe Matthews or Laine become Yakupov while Sergacev becomes Markov. What your position completely ignores is the likelihood of the players in question becoming what you suggest.

The post you quoted was a response to Sergachev being compared to Nikitin.
If you have no issues with a "crystal ball" post comparing Tkachuk to Landeskog and Sergachev to Nikitin then you shouldnt have an issue with a Sergachev = Markov prediction.

 

[Raab]

Not to single out a single point in your post, but why does it matter if we move a forward now? I imagine at best Brown would need a couple years before he sniffs the NHL and Tkachuk is probably at least a year away as well.

Well it would depend on who we get in return, but if were trading a forward I'd imagine we have a top 4 offensive dman coming back in return. For example if say Draisaitl for Faulk were to happen I'd be open to taking Brown. To me he reminds me a lot of Couturier and I could see him becoming a solid 2nd/3rd line centerman in the mold of J. Staal, Hanzal, Couturier. As for Tkachuk I see no reason why he won't be playing in the NHL next season and could see us starting him on the 3rd line. He also brings an element to the game we lack in that he's willing to do the dirty work to score.

In saying that I still would consider Sergachev at the 4 spot even with us trading one of our young guns for d help. I mean a Sergachev-Faulk pairing would be pretty enticing in a few years. Sergachev is just not as much of a need if we can add a top pairing offensive dman through trade though.

 

[Raab]

Unless you have a crystal ball and know what every player is going to turn out to be you seem to be arguing that all draft slots have the same value? Would you pick Sergachev at #1 or #2? Maybe Matthews or Laine become Yakupov while Sergacev becomes Markov. What your position completely ignores is the likelihood of the players in question becoming what you suggest.

So what do you feel is Sergachev's floor? I can't see any reason why he's not at minimum a top 4 dman. Is their some reason you can think of that he may not be?

 

[lakai17]

I believe there is a possibility that Jesse Puljujarvi may drop to four for the Oilers. I can see Tkachuk drafted by CBJ. If that is the case, Chia will have more flexibility and options to do something such as trading for a top dman.

The Jets value Puli right with Laine as well I believe. It is unlikely the Jets draft Puli but keep in mind they selected Scheifele over Couturier and Trouba over Forsberg in previous drafts.

Tkachuk definitely fits the Blue Jackets system. A Jenner-Tkachuk duo would be hard to contain.

One guy who may hit the top is is Clayton Keller as well. I myself am high on Keller. Great skater with a great i.q.

 

[YEGJuniorFan]

I am really torn between Tkachuk and PLD. Probably leaning towards Dubois though, he seems like the more versatile player which McLellan can use around the lineup. If we go defenseman I think we trade down to 8 or 9 and try and pick up Juolevi or Chyrchun. I know Chrychrun has dropped a bit but he still seems to have a pretty high potential.

With the 32nd selection I think we could try to target a guy like Kale Clague or Nathian Bastian. Thoughts?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I don't remember a time when there was so much uncertainty with our pick. Could take Tkachuk/DuBois/Pluju if he drops, could trade down, could move it outright. It'll be an exciting draft.

 

[Raab]

Another thing to consider is to look at who Mikhail Sergachev's head coach is. The Oilers will definitely have a good understanding of not only his abilities on ice, but also what he does off the ice and his personality because of that. Im a firm believer that if we stay at 4 he'll be our pick.

 

[Draiskull]

The Jets value Puli right with Laine as well I believe. It is unlikely the Jets draft Puli but keep in mind they selected Scheifele over Couturier and Trouba over Forsberg in previous drafts.

Tkachuk definitely fits the Blue Jackets system. A Jenner-Tkachuk duo would be hard to contain.

One guy who may hit the top is is Clayton Keller as well. I myself am high on Keller. Great skater with a great i.q.

Link?
After this worlds tournament where Laine is dominating against men there is 0 chance anyone picks Puljujarvi over Laine.
If anything Laine is making the lives of TML management difficult and making himself a strong case to go 1st overall.

 

[Draiskull]

Another thing to consider is to look at who Mikhail Sergachev's head coach is. The Oilers will definitely have a good understanding of not only his abilities on ice, but also what he does off the ice and his personality because of that. Im a firm believer that if we stay at 4 he'll be our pick.

I think if the Oilers are high on Sergachev.. They will drop down to pick 9\10 and select him. There is no way he goes 4 or 5.

 

[Jumptheshark]

For me the draft starts at 3 with the BJS. Speculation is that the BJS will be seeing what they could get for their pick

 

[Halibut]

Unless you have a crystal ball and know what every player is going to turn out to be you seem to be arguing that all draft slots have the same value? Would you pick Sergachev at #1 or #2? Maybe Matthews or Laine become Yakupov while Sergacev becomes Markov. What your position completely ignores is the likelihood of the players in question becoming what you suggest.

I dont think anyone actually knows the likelihood of that happening and if they do the odds for specific outcomes are so slight that its virtually impossible to differentiate who will actually be the better player.. Matthews and Laine are probably a different story because the top 2 or 3 at the draft usually are the best, they almost always turn into something of value, but beyond that it's rare to see the outcomes match the rankings. We easily could have a miss by drafting someone ranked slightly lower, but we could also have a miss by drafting the consensus BPA.

 

[Raab]

I think if the Oilers are high on Sergachev.. They will drop down to pick 9\10 and select him. There is no way he goes 4 or 5.

I wouldn't bet on him making it past Buffalo. Even Vancouver might be a stretch. I feel this draft could be a lot like the 2012 draft where guys are taken all over the place in comparison to where the mock drafts are putting them.

 

[lakai17]

Link?
After this worlds tournament where Laine is dominating against men there is 0 chance anyone picks Puljujarvi over Laine.
If anything Laine is making the lives of TML management difficult and making himself a strong case to go 1st overall.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=161

Take it for a grain of salt of course, apparently some reliable sources. I have had Laine ranked over Matthews for over a year now as well so his hype is as real as it gets to myself. Puli is legit also so this draft interests me.

I also am interested on how negotiations are going with Trouba and Scheifele. You have to assume Cheveldayoff will make a big move or two after that season the Jets had.

 

[Draiskull]

For me the draft starts at 3 with the BJS. Speculation is that the BJS will be seeing what they could get for their pick

Sounds greedy and a step in the wrong direction but what about RNH for 3rd overall?

CBJ are looking for a top 6 C..
We get a pretty NHL ready expansion exempt RWer who shoots right.

 

[Draiskull]

I wouldn't bet on him making it past Buffalo. Even Vancouver might be a stretch. I feel this draft could be a lot like the 2012 draft where guys are taken all over the place in comparison to where the mock drafts are putting them.

Name me one scouting agency that has Sergachev going top 5. He isnt even the best D prospect on most if not all lists. Dubois and Tkachuk are on a tier all by themselves if not with Puljujarvi.
Its not about the mock drafts.. its scouting reports.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?blogger_id=161

Take it for a grain of salt of course, apparently some reliable sources. I have had Laine ranked over Matthews for over a year now as well so his hype is as real as it gets to myself. Puli is legit also so this draft interests me.

I also am interested on how negotiations are going with Trouba and Scheifele. You have to assume Cheveldayoff will make a big move or two after that season the Jets had.

Laine will go 2nd overall if not 1st. Now if Jets are interested in Pujujarvi instead they would trade down to 3rd and acquire a pretty decent asset along with it.

 

[Fourier]

The post you quoted was a response to Sergachev being compared to Nikitin.
If you have no issues with a "crystal ball" post comparing Tkachuk to Landeskog and Sergachev to Nikitin then you shouldnt have an issue with a Sergachev = Markov prediction.

Point taken. I meant to quote his/her previous post.

 

[Fourier]

So what do you feel is Sergachev's floor? I can't see any reason why he's not at minimum a top 4 dman. Is their some reason you can think of that he may not be?

Honestly I don't know. I expect him to be a very good defenseman. I actually really like the player. If I had to pick a defenseman he would be my clear choice. But I am not at all convinced he will be a difference maker for at least 4 years. And the real issue for me is his value relative to Tkachuk/Dubois.

I think the defense will be addressed through trades involving roster players or the pick itself. If they move the pick then this discussion is moot. If they trade one of the forwards then the need for a prospect forward increases.

If the Oilers believe that Sergachev specifically is the best guy at #4 I am not going to cry about it. In fact, I'll be one of his biggest cheerleaders.

 

[Raab]

Name me one scouting agency that has Sergachev going top 5. He isnt even the best D prospect on most if not all lists. Dubois and Tkachuk are on a tier all by themselves if not with Puljujarvi.
Its not about the mock drafts.. its scouting reports.



Laine will go 2nd overall if not 1st. Now if Jets are interested in Pujujarvi instead they would trade down to 3rd and acquire a pretty decent asset along with it.

Most if not all the scouting reports say that anyone of the 3 dmen could be the 1st taken in this years draft. And most note that any of the dmen could go as high as the 4th spot. Ive watched all these guys, not extensively, but enough to have a good idea of their games and to me I think anyone of Tkachuk or Sergachev could be the 1st pick out of the OHL. You have to not only consider what they're doing right now but what they project to do, their position, and their ages. As I said how does Sergachev look next year in December when he's the same age as Tkachuk is now?

 

[Beerfish]

Sounds greedy and a step in the wrong direction but what about RNH for 3rd overall?

CBJ are looking for a top 6 C..
We get a pretty NHL ready expansion exempt RWer who shoots right.

If the Oilers did that I'd be looking for a new tv on draft day.

 

[McWeber]

Sounds greedy and a step in the wrong direction but what about RNH for 3rd overall?

CBJ are looking for a top 6 C..
We get a pretty NHL ready expansion exempt RWer who shoots right.

I prefer Nuge but if we turned around and traded our #4 outright for a top pairing RHD then sure.

 

[SLURVE]

I do not believe the Oilers will pick a dman in the draft unless they had traded for a top 2 or 3 NHL playing dman already ex. packaging a deal together with their 4th pick. The Oilers need a top dman help 3 years ago and waiting now for a draft prospect to develop is requiring time they can ill afford.

 

[Draiskull]

Most if not all the scouting reports say that anyone of the 3 dmen could be the 1st taken in this years draft. And most note that any of the dmen could go as high as the 4th spot. Ive watched all these guys, not extensively, but enough to have a good idea of their games and to me I think anyone of Tkachuk or Sergachev could be the 1st pick out of the OHL. You have to not only consider what they're doing right now but what they project to do, their position, and their ages. As I said how does Sergachev look next year in December when he's the same age as Tkachuk is now?

Yeh there isnt much difference between the 3 Dmen in terms of anyone could go before the other 2. The point still remains... There isnt a single ranking that has Sergacehv going top 5.

If the Oilers did that I'd be looking for a new tv on draft day.

I wouldnt mind it as long as we know Chia is spending to cap.

Pickup Puljujarvi + Dubois\Tkachuk

Hall-Drai-Tkachuk
Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi
Pouliot-xxxx-Kassian

 

[Raab]

Honestly I don't know. I expect him to be a very good defenseman. I actually really like the player. If I had to pick a defenseman he would be my clear choice. But I am not at all convinced he will be a difference maker for at least 4 years. And the real issue for me is his value relative to Tkachuk/Dubois.

I think the defense will be addressed through trades involving roster players or the pick itself. If they move the pick then this discussion is moot. If they trade one of the forwards then the need for a prospect forward increases.

If the Oilers believe that Sergachev specifically is the best guy at #4 I am not going to cry about it. In fact, I'll be one of his biggest cheerleaders.

I can understand that for sure. But look at who has the upside and whats more valuable to the Oil. Sergachev IMO at minimum has the potential to be a top pairing dman, and his floor to me is a top 4 dman. I think we can agree on that. Tkachuk has the potential to be a top line winger in the mold of Landeskog. Where he competes all over the ice and goes to the dirty areas and at minimum I think he's a solid second line winger.

So lets say Tkachuk hits his potential, whats he worth in a trade? Out of the top 30 dmen in scoring Landeskog IMO would only land maybe 5 of them in Byfuglien, Barrie, Yandle, Muzzin, Leddy, Vatanen. These are all guys who I think Sergachev at minimum will turn out to be like. So then is it worth taking the chance that he becomes that true bonified #1 dman on top of that? To me its a no brainer. Also if Sergachev hits were almost guaranteed to be contenders. Can the same be said if we take Dubois or Tkachuk and they hit? I'm not so sure.