Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[Canovin]

2016 reminds me of 2010 in a sense that Matthews is one of the oldest in the draft like Taylor Hall. Obviously, Hall was the consensus #1 pick. Over time the gap closes between Hall and others, and now Seguin, arguably Johansen, Kuznetsov, Faulk and Tarasenko have surpassed him.

I see the same with Matthews and others. Laine, Pulju, DuBois could very well surpass him. The gap is not as big as everyone wants to believe.

With that being said, I hope we pick DuBois. He's a safe pick with massive upside

 

[Raab]

By picking Dubios or Tkachuk you can kill two birds (or even 3 birds) with one stone

1) It allows you to easily trade Eberle and/or RNH and for proven D. D is addressed
2) It allows you to reconfigure your top 6/9 to be big enough to compete in West. Hall (6'1), McDavid (6'1), Drasaitl (6'2), Maroon (6'3), Pouliot (6'2), Dubios (6'3) are more than enough size. That top 6 also has a good mix of 2 way play. If RNH is kept you have PLD, RNH, Pouliot, McDavid as good two way guys.
3) It allows you to NOT take on anymore cap space if you acquire new D. Eberles 6M coming off the books will off set anything. Your cap is fine

The problem with picking a average top 10 D pick is that it swings your teams balance way to far to being D heavy. Which is not the end of the world but you still need to score.

Drafting Dubios or a forward enables you to address D while reconfiguring forwards all in one swoop. I dont see that as anything less than perfect

It's way easier to trade a quality dman for a winger vs trading a winger for a dman... if we become d heavy and a few of these guys turnout you can trade them for help up front. I mean really what kind of dman do you expect to get for a 55 point Nuge or a soft 1 way goal scorer in Eb's? On top of that we don't have one dman in the system with elite offensive upside. All them are two way dmen or defensive dmen. Biggest reason I want to take Sergachev.

 

[Aceboogie]

It's way easier to trade a quality dman for a winger vs trading a winger for a dman... if we become d heavy and a few of these guys turnout you can trade them for help up front. I mean really what kind of dman do you expect to get for a 55 point Nuge or a soft 1 way goal scorer in Eb's? On top of that we don't have one dman in the system with elite offensive upside. All them are two way dmen or defensive dmen. Biggest reason I want to take Sergachev.

The thing is we have proven top NHL talent in Eberle and a high value guy in RNH (despite what some people in trade boards think, but lets not turn this into a RNH thing). They can right now be traded for some pretty good D, thats a given. You can find some very neutral NHL media guys saying RNH could fetch some good D. If you add to them, you can get a top pairing D.

If you draft Sergachev has to first develop in CHL, then transition his game to NHL, then excel in NHL. Then in 3-4 years, he could be like Ristolianen. Or he could be like Dumba/Nurse. I dont think we have time to wait for a D to develop. I would have patience if we were getting a Jones/Ekblad level talent. But these guys seem risky. Could they all be Lindholm/Rielly/Trouba? or Nurse/Zadorov/Dumba/Fluery? I dont want to risk it and then wait to find out. Dubios and Eberle trade help your team from Oct 1, 2016 on. Dubios is potentially in the NHL next year, and if not next year 100%.

 

[jeg]

More then happy to pick 4OA but wonder how likely we could gain many assets trading down.
Would be happy if we could move 4 OA for 7 OA and 20 OA
Move 7 OA for 9 OA and 45 OA
gives us 9th, 20th, 32 and 45 th and 3 3rds to make deals happen or get full cupboards.
Pending how people draft we could land 2 great D in the first a RH and top LH. Use the 2nds to find a two way C for the future and gamble a third on a goalie

 

[Raab]

The thing is we have proven top NHL talent in Eberle and a high value guy in RNH (despite what some people in trade boards think, but lets not turn this into a RNH thing). They can right now be traded for some pretty good D, thats a given. You can find some very neutral NHL media guys saying RNH could fetch some good D. If you add to them, you can get a top pairing D.

If you draft Sergachev has to first develop in CHL, then transition his game to NHL, then excel in NHL. Then in 3-4 years, he could be like Ristolianen. Or he could be like Dumba/Nurse. I dont think we have time to wait for a D to develop. I would have patience if we were getting a Jones/Ekblad level talent. But these guys seem risky. Could they all be Lindholm/Rielly/Trouba? or Nurse/Zadorov/Dumba/Fluery? I dont want to risk it and then wait to find out. Dubios and Eberle trade help your team from Oct 1, 2016 on. Dubios is potentially in the NHL next year, and if not next year 100%.

Sergachev in my eyes is an OEL level talent if all goes well. He's a heck of a lot closer to Jones, Ekblad, Pietrangelo, OEL, then he is to Nurse, or Dumba who I was never high on. Honestly what dman do you think we can get for RNH or Eberle? And if we trade Eberle how many RH shots do we have up front?

 

[Aceboogie]

More then happy to pick 4OA but wonder how likely we could gain many assets trading down.
Would be happy if we could move 4 OA for 7 OA and 20 OA
Move 7 OA for 9 OA and 45 OA
gives us 9th, 20th, 32 and 45 th and 3 3rds to make deals happen or get full cupboards.
Pending how people draft we could land 2 great D in the first a RH and top LH. Use the 2nds to find a two way C for the future and gamble a third on a goalie

If we dont pick Dubios I hope we trade down to get assets than land one of the D. I honestly dont have a problem with any of the 3 top D except for picking one over Dubios (I think I just irrationally really like the player). I think with the way D fall in drafts, 1 of the 3 is almost a guarantee at 12 or 13.

I wonder if Buffalo is salivating at the idea of a Juolevi and Risto pairing.

Id then do what MacT did in 2013 draft and just trade down hard in later rounds. If there is no slam dunks at 32, trade down for late 2nd + 3rd. Then trade 3rd for late 3rd +5th.

End up with late 2nd, 3rd, 2 late 3rds, 4th

 

[djdub]

More then happy to pick 4OA but wonder how likely we could gain many assets trading down.
Would be happy if we could move 4 OA for 7 OA and 20 OA
Move 7 OA for 9 OA and 45 OA
gives us 9th, 20th, 32 and 45 th and 3 3rds to make deals happen or get full cupboards.
Pending how people draft we could land 2 great D in the first a RH and top LH. Use the 2nds to find a two way C for the future and gamble a third on a goalie

Trading down never works. Especially in the top 10. I hope we do not do that.

Trade it outright in a package or make the pick.

Simple.

 

[Aerchon]

Trading down never works. Especially in the top 10. I hope we do not do that.

Trade it outright in a package or make the pick.

Simple.

Agreed. Especially in this draft.

Really hope Chiarelli doesn't trade down just to make it look like he is doing something.

 

[Aceboogie]

Sergachev in my eyes is an OEL level talent if all goes well. He's a heck of a lot closer to Jones, Ekblad, Pietrangelo, OEL, then he is to Nurse, or Dumba who I was never high on. Honestly what dman do you think we can get for RNH or Eberle? And if we trade Eberle how many RH shots do we have up front?

If our scouts see him that way, then id be ok with him if we traded down to say 7th (assuming Calgary and Van went with forwards)

For RNH I think you can land a top young D. I do believe he was insanely close to getting Jones. So say Lindholm, Barrie (but id want adds from Colorado), Hamonic (rescinded trade offer but could still be dealt)

Eberle I could see Vatanen (if we take on a cap dump), Spurgeron, Ryan Ellis, Tanev (wed add a bit), Scandella, Gardiner

Worst case for either: Brodin, Ryan Murphy. Above doesnt take into account biiger trades like Subban/Weber

And this doesnt include the fact that if neither can land a RFA D with an offer sheet and there is a plethora of young unsigned RFA D, most righties

 

[ChaoticOrange]

If we dont pick Dubios I hope we trade down to get assets than land one of the D. I honestly dont have a problem with any of the 3 top D except for picking one over Dubios (I think I just irrationally really like the player). I think with the way D fall in drafts, 1 of the 3 is almost a guarantee at 12 or 13.

I wonder if Buffalo is salivating at the idea of a Juolevi and Risto pairing.

Id then do what MacT did in 2013 draft and just trade down hard in later rounds. If there is no slam dunks at 32, trade down for late 2nd + 3rd. Then trade 3rd for late 3rd +5th.

End up with late 2nd, 3rd, 2 late 3rds, 4th

I don't think trading down in a weak draft is a good idea. If there's no slam dunk just take who you think is BPA and move on.

I like the idea of Dubois/Tkachuk, Hart/Sawchenko/Gustafsson, Fox as our first 3 picks should we keep them all.

 

[Raab]

If our scouts see him that way, then id be ok with him if we traded down to say 7th (assuming Calgary and Van went with forwards)

For RNH I think you can land a top young D. I do believe he was insanely close to getting Jones. So say Lindholm, Barrie (but id want adds from Colorado), Hamonic (rescinded trade offer but could still be dealt)

Eberle I could see Vatanen (if we take on a cap dump), Spurgeron, Ryan Ellis

Worst case for either: Brodin, Ryan Murphy. Above doesnt take into account biiger trades like Subban/Weber

And this doesnt include the fact that if neither can land a RFA D with an offer sheet and there is a plethora of young unsigned RFA D, most righties

What if Calgary and Vans scouts see Sergachev the same way I do? He goes there and becomes a top pairing 25 minute a night dman we have to play against for the next 10 years. No way I trade out of the 4 spot. I truly think their is a slight drop at 7 and that Sergachev would go to either Calgary or Van.

 

[Canovin]

What if Calgary and Vans scouts see Sergachev the same way I do? He goes there and becomes a top pairing 25 minute a night dman we have to play against for the next 10 years. No way I trade out of the 4 spot. I truly think their is a slight drop at 7 and that Sergachev would go to either Calgary or Van.

Sergachev will go to Buffalo. Murray is just drooling at the Chychrun/Sergachev/Juolevi+Risto pairing right now

 

[Aceboogie]

I don't think trading down in a weak draft is a good idea. If there's no slam dunk just take who you think is BPA and move on.

I like the idea of Dubois/Tkachuk, Hart/Sawchenko/Gustafsson, Fox as our first 3 picks should we keep them all.

What if Calgary and Vans scouts see Sergachev the same way I do? He goes there and becomes a top pairing 25 minute a night dman we have to play against for the next 10 years. No way I trade out of the 4 spot. I truly think their is a slight drop at 7 and that Sergachev would go to either Calgary or Van.

Not to sound offensive, but what if you are seeing Sergachev wrong? or in more complinatry ways than a majority of people are. I have not really seen that many mock drafts (maybe not any) with him going 4-5. Only a few have him going 6th and most are 8-10. Jueolvi is the guy who keeps popping up in mock drafts going 4-5. If we are picking 4th and set on a D and dont see a noticeable difference in 2 of the D, I mean you have to trade down to 7 or 8.

1,2 or all 3 of the teams behind us bay choose a forward, leaving 1 or more D for us to chose (that we wanted already, now just getting free assets). And if in the "unfortunate" position that all 3 D go 4-5-6, we then wind up with the choice once again of Dubios or Tkachuk (the better prospects) but again have a free asset in the form of a 1st round pick.

Maybe Fabbro falls to 20, not to wild to think. Then you get Dubios/a D PLUS Fabbro. Versus just Dubios or a D

 

[Aceboogie]

Not to turn this into a trade proposal thread. But maybe us swapping picks with Vancouver is in the cards. Situation: Vancouver wants Tkachuk, Chiarelli talks up Tkachuk before the draft (as hes been doing), Vancouver makes a push for Tkachuk

The deal

To Vancouver:
4th+ Reinhart (+ pick?)

To Edmonton:
5th + Tanev

The value of difference between top 10 picks is subjective. Some GMs may value a 4th and 7th nearly the same base don estimation of prospects. But one GM might like a highly ranked prospect so much that gap between 4th and 5th is high

 

[Raab]

Not to sound offensive, but what if you are seeing Sergachev wrong? or in more complinatry ways than a majority of people are. I have not really seen that many mock drafts (maybe not any) with him going 4-5. Only a few have him going 6th and most are 8-10. Jueolvi is the guy who keeps popping up in mock drafts going 4-5. If we are picking 4th and set on a D and dont see a noticeable difference in 2 of the D, I mean you have to trade down to 7 or 8.

1,2 or all 3 of the teams behind us bay choose a forward, leaving 1 or more D for us to chose (that we wanted already, now just getting free assets). And if in the "unfortunate" position that all 3 D go 4-5-6, we then wind up with the choice once again of Dubios or Tkachuk (the better prospects) but again have a free asset in the form of a 1st round pick.

Maybe Fabbro falls to 20, not to wild to think. Then you get Dubios/a D PLUS Fabbro. Versus just Dubios or a D

Except there is a noticeable difference in the D. I want nothing to do with Chychrun reminds me of Bogosian in a lot of ways and is comin out of Sarnias brutal developmental system. Juolevi I'd have time for but he doesn't have ideal size right now and his offensive upside is questionable. To me Juolevi reminds me a lot of a guy like Klefbom. Solid two way guy who.might get you 30 points. A solid complimentary player but not the guy you'd want anchoring the top pairing. Honestly I see Buffalo taking him as a Juolevi Ristolainen pairing would be great. Then we get to Sergachev. Ideal size at 6'3" and 200 lbs, half decent skater, elite offensive abilities in his passing shooting and stick handling, good one on one, and half decent zone coverage, and can be physical when needed. He literally checks every box you'd want to see in a top pairing dman. Only thing questionable about him is where he hails from as Russia isn't known to produce great defenders.

Let's put it this way all 3 of these guys play in the same league and Sergachev as voted on by the OHL GM'S was the best of the 3 dmen.

 

[Mr Positive]

Our scouts will be looking more closely at these players than we can. If we've decided we want D and we've come to a consensus on one guy above all others, then take him at 4. I doubt we have a clear favorite though. That means trading down or picking a forward.

Maybe the D we really want is projected much later in the round. That's where we get creative

 

[Aceboogie]

Except there is a noticeable difference in the D. I want nothing to do with Chychrun reminds me of Bogosian in a lot of ways and is comin out of Sarnias brutal developmental system. Juolevi I'd have time for but he doesn't have ideal size right now and his offensive upside is questionable. To me Juolevi reminds me a lot of a guy like Klefbom. Solid two way guy who.might get you 30 points. A solid complimentary player but not the guy you'd want anchoring the top pairing. Honestly I see Buffalo taking him as a Juolevi Ristolainen pairing would be great. Then we get to Sergachev. Ideal size at 6'3" and 200 lbs, half decent skater, elite offensive abilities in his passing shooting and stick handling, good one on one, and half decent zone coverage, and can be physical when needed. He literally checks every box you'd want to see in a top pairing dman. Only thing questionable about him is where he hails from as Russia isn't known to produce great defenders.

Let's put it this way all 3 of these guys play in the same league and Sergachev as voted on by the OHL GM'S was the best of the 3 dmen.

Yeah that OHL D MVP is a pretty clear sign hes a top D.

I did some digging into their offensive numbers. Basically I wanted to take out team effect from the equation (Knights scored almost 200 more points than Spitfires). I prorated every guys stats to 67 games and then added any newly prorated stats to that guys teams total points

Heres what I found:

Players goals as a percentage of total team goals:

OJ-2%
JC-3%
MS- 4%

Based on this we could except MS to score around 21 goals or double the production of OJ if on same scoring team

Points as a % of teams total points

OJ-6%
JC- 8%
MS-8%

Once again MS tops. We could expect MS to score 72 points on a similar scoring team to the Knights

For reference- Doughty, Ekblad, Jones, Pietrangelo

AP: 5%, 8%
Doughty: 6%, 9%
Ekblad: 9% (!), 8%
Jones: 4%, 6%

So I guess from offensive standpoint Serghachev is up there with the former big boys

 

[CornKicker]

we should trade eberle + #4 for #2

mcdavid + Laine for 15 years + both dont need to be protected for expansion

 

[Raab]

Yeah that OHL D MVP is a pretty clear sign hes a top D.

I did some digging into their offensive numbers. Basically I wanted to take out team effect from the equation (Knights scored almost 200 more points than Spitfires). I prorated every guys stats to 67 games and then added any newly prorated stats to that guys teams total points

Heres what I found:

Players goals as a percentage of total team goals:

OJ-2%
JC-3%
MS- 4%

Based on this we could except MS to score around 21 goals or double the production of OJ if on same scoring team

Points as a % of teams total points

OJ-6%
JC- 8%
MS-8%

Once again MS tops. We could expect MS to score 72 points on a similar scoring team to the Knights

For reference- Doughty, Ekblad, Jones, Pietrangelo

AP: 5%, 8%
Doughty: 6%, 9%
Ekblad: 9% (!), 8%
Jones: 4%, 6%

So I guess from offensive standpoint Serghachev is up there with the former big boys

Exactly! I honestly don't know what some of the scouts are watching when they place him lower in the lists. Everything I've seen from him indicates top pairing guy in the NHL.

 

[Aerchon]

Exactly! I honestly don't know what some of the scouts are watching when they place him lower in the lists. Everything I've seen from him indicates top pairing guy in the NHL.

None of the defenseman are worth trading down for or drafting at 4. But I do find it interesting that the scouting reports I have read make Serg sound the best but typically have him ranked lower than the other two.

 

[Mr Positive]

we should trade eberle + #4 for #2

Yeah but they shouldn't

 

[Tw0Shoes]

Except there is a noticeable difference in the D. I want nothing to do with Chychrun reminds me of Bogosian in a lot of ways and is comin out of Sarnias brutal developmental system. Juolevi I'd have time for but he doesn't have ideal size right now and his offensive upside is questionable. To me Juolevi reminds me a lot of a guy like Klefbom. Solid two way guy who.might get you 30 points. A solid complimentary player but not the guy you'd want anchoring the top pairing. Honestly I see Buffalo taking him as a Juolevi Ristolainen pairing would be great. Then we get to Sergachev. Ideal size at 6'3" and 200 lbs, half decent skater, elite offensive abilities in his passing shooting and stick handling, good one on one, and half decent zone coverage, and can be physical when needed. He literally checks every box you'd want to see in a top pairing dman. Only thing questionable about him is where he hails from as Russia isn't known to produce great defenders.

Let's put it this way all 3 of these guys play in the same league and Sergachev as voted on by the OHL GM'S was the best of the 3 dmen.

Gonchar, Zubov, Markov, Fetisov, Konstitinov, Kasparitis.
Younger ones: Emelin, Orlov, Kulikov, Voynov, Zadorov, Provorov looks like he'll be good.

 

[lakai17]

we should trade eberle + #4 for #2

mcdavid + Laine for 15 years + both dont need to be protected for expansion

The Jets need that type of player for their city.

Although Peter Tessier just wrote an article less than 24 hours ago that 2 valid sources claim they have just as much interest in Pulijujarvi which makes sense also.

They do have to ink up Scheifele and Trouba this summer also.

It would have to be a young d + the 4th for the 2nd overall.

I am all for the Laine-McDavid duo also. Pipedream now.

 

[McBooya42]

we should trade eberle + #4 for #2

mcdavid + Laine for 15 years + both dont need to be protected for expansion

I literally almost barfed. Undervalue Ebs much? Jeebus.

 

[McShogun99]

Trading down never works. Especially in the top 10. I hope we do not do that.

Trade it outright in a package or make the pick.

Simple.

I hate trading down. There are such few good examples in NHL draft history when a team tries down and it works out better for them.